Here is my prediction for 2013 with our present team, good health and no further upgrades.

 

Clay, 16 and 11 with a 4.27 ERA

Dempster, 14 and 12 with a 4.23 ERA -

Lester, 16 and 8 with a 3.65 ERA - most improved

Lackey, 11 and 11 with a 4.73 ERA

Other SP's 12 and 13 with an avg. 4.67 ERA

Bullpen? 21 and 17 with a 3.79 ERA 

Final record best case scenario, 90 wins 72 losses

 

Team OBP? .349

Finish? fighting for a PS slot

Final thought? Team OBP still too low with average SP but a solid pen

I assume you mean .349 OBP, which would lead the league.

In response to Joebreidey's comment:

Yes Joe but still very short from our 04 and 07 team OBP of around .370

In response to craze4sox's comment:

I do agree on its importance.  Let's just say that OBP is not one of the things that Mr. Fundamentals emphasized.

In response to Joebreidey's comment:

Agreed Joe, I just look at the previous four Sox/Yankee WC's and have to believe thats are goal.  Unless we get some incredible pitching.  I'm hoping for the best.

In response to craze4sox's comment:

Craze,

I think your under estimating Lackey's return to health no way he post a 4.7. Unless his elbow is still sore. I also think Doubront will show improvement over lat year and 33 starts with a sub 4 ERA with 16 or 17 wins is not out of the realm of probability. I agree with your wins prediction and that they'll be in the mix all season. 

Our line up will be pretty good and probably score about 750 to 800 runs. if we can pitch to a team ERA of 4 we should eclipse +100 run differential. 

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Lester 17-8 3.35

Bucholz 18-5 3.23 finish top 10 CYA

Dempster 13-12 4.13

Doubront 15-12 4.33

Lackey 12-10 4.11

I think our strong BP will help this team alot this season and also from Morales' few spot starts and help this team to win more than 93 games.  

In response to seannybboi's comment:

Bordeline wild card spot with a record 4 games above .500, along with other teams fighting TB, Oak, Blt., Texas so far with this winter acquistions Toronto Detroit and Angels will be division champs. I can't see the White Sox keeping pace with the Tigers.

I will make an early WS final teams Detroit and Washington.

But if you are prefering to use and our good health, then i will just pray and stay positive that all the members on this forum have prosperious and healthy New Year.

In response to seannybboi's comment:

I think if this team has a shot at a playoff spot, Lackey has to be better tha what we expect from Dempster.

Other than that, I agree.

I think you are severely underestimating what type of a season Clay Buccholz can have with a full bill of health. 

Based on last year's unearned run total, your prediction would have us giving up 729 runs which is a far cry better than the 806 we gave up in 2012.

We did only score 734 runs last year but the last month + was basically thrown away, so the offense would need to score about 830 + runs to meet your 90-72 record.

The offense is more than capable of that but I'm concerned the defense will allow a greater amount of unearned runs so the SP will need to do better. I think Lackey will be above .500 and that Doubront will be in double digit wins. I don't think the BP will be the factor of 38 decisions though.

There's a big difference between good health and perfect health.  I would think good health would equate to an average of about 27 starts each for the top 5 (135 total) leaving 27 starts for others (Morales, Aceves, DLR).  I could see about 58 wins - 47 losses from the top 5, 8 wins - 9 losses from the other starters, and as a stretch 25 wins - 15 losses from what will hopefully be a strong pen.  Total 91 - 71, and a very good chance not only for the WC but for the division.  I do not see anyone running up big win totals in AL - too many solid teams.  This assumes the O will also remain healthy (average 145 - 150 starts each from Pedey, Papi, Ells, Vic, Drew and WMB) and the D will be strong up the middle (Drew the key here).

In response to Joebreidey's comment:

The .349 on-base percentage would represent a significant improvement over the .315 OBP posted by the Red Sox in 2012 (and is higher than the career OBP of Shane Victorino, Jonny Gomes, Stephen Drew and David Ross).

In response to ctredsoxfanhugh's comment:

I agree with you CTHugh ... OP prediction for Buchholz far too conservative IMO. Smack dab in the middle of his prime with those back woes behind him, he could prove to be a top 20 starter in MLB.

I predict 17-10, 3.55, 1.18

In response to Beantowne's comment:

Hey Bean, as you know I was never a fan of signing Lackey.  I think next season may enlighten us on just how well he fairs in our division.  I will be the first to admit I was wrong if he pitches well but I just don't see this club winning more than 90 games as we stand today.  Your point was also well taken on Doubront or another youngster helping out if someone struggles.

I'm a huge preacher of team OBP and solid SP but not yet convinced we have a good balance of either.

 

In response to Alibiike's comment:

I think you bring up good points but our bullpen in my opininion is capable of and may be the key to any possible PS slot  if used wisely.  This means pulling our starters before "not after" too much damage has been done, or allowing players like Napoli to kill us defensively late in the game.

In response to hill55's comment:

In response to ctredsoxfanhugh's comment:

You could be right my fellow CT. fan but Ross will need to be a difference maker.  I don't see Salty ever being Tek behind the plate.  I wish Lav has had the time we have given Salty, then we may be in better shape to lower our ERA's and win a few more games.

Craze,

I think your under estimating Lackey's return to health no way he post a 4.7. Unless his elbow is still sore. I also think Doubront will show improvement over lat year and 33 starts with a sub 4 ERA with 16 or 17 wins is not out of the realm of probability. I agree with your wins prediction and that they'll be in the mix all season. 

Our line up will be pretty good and probably score about 750 to 800 runs. if we can pitch to a team ERA of 4 we should eclipse +100 run differential. 

[/QUOTE]

Not really, look at lackey's career #'s in fenway and against the NYY, blue jays and rays.

LOL!  I love it!  Perhaps I'll venture a wild guess, based on .......

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In response to ctredsoxfanhugh's comment:

While Lester and Doubront might regress towards their mean in a good way, and the addition of Dempster should help, the Sox shouldn't expect much from Buchholz and Lackey. Once viewed as a potential ace, Buchholz's profile leaves him as a bit of a Kyle Kendricktype: someone who is average in almost every possible way. And average isn't bad at the back of a rotation, but when you are praying for regression, you need more upside than one finds with Buchholz. Put another way, when you've just lost a big hand at poker and you're looking to win your money back, you're hoping for pocket kings, not pocket sixes. 

As for Lackey, the veteran has had a tumultuous tenure with the Red Sox and will be entering 2013 recovering from Tommy John surgery. While there is a track record of pitchers having success after TJ surgery, there are no guarantees, particularly for a 34-year-old such as Lackey. In 2011, his last full season, he posted a career-low strikeout rate (14.5 percent) and finished with a strikeout-to-walk ratio under two for the first time in his 10-year career. To expect anything better than replacement-level pitching from Lackey would be a fool's errand. 

From http://espn.go.com/blog/sweetspot/post/_/id/31888/red-sox-havent-improved-rotation-enough (just so hill doesn't freak out about plagiarizing even when you include the full article with the authors name)

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In response to EdithBRTN's comment:

Why don't you worry about yourself instead of what everyone else does?