Psst...We have a really good well rounded Playoff quality offense this year. Y/N?

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from Schumpeters-Ghost. Show Schumpeters-Ghost's posts

    Re: Psst...We have a really good well rounded Playoff quality offense this year. Y/N?

    In response to Joebreidey's comment:

    In response to Schumpeters-Ghost's comment:

     

    In response to Joebreidey's comment:

     

    OPS is way more important than average.  Check FG to see what their projected OPS' are.

     




     

    Use whatever stats you want - it doesn't change the fact that the line up posted (12 names) has 50% MAJOR question marks

     

     



    But one of the three holes you mentioned finished 3rd in his position in HRs.  I mean, if the average OPS for an AL catcher is .710, and Salty is at .742, is that really a major hole?  Or put another way, the NYY, Detroit, and Oakland have two things in common.  They all finished 1st, and they all had a huge hole at catcher, since all 3 catchers had a lower OPS than Salty.

     




     

    As I said - I am hopeful for Salt.  I like him and think he still has upside as a player and will improve.  Salt is a ? - but I am hopeful for him.

    Drew, Gomes, Napoli - are massive question marks - and just not great signs.

     

    Let's remember the OP asked do we have a playoff offense?  4 of 9 huge questions marks - and Victorino is a small question mark.  Middlebrooks - I hope he is not a question mark.

    Only Ells, Pedroia, and Ortiz can be expected to play at a high level.  The rest is a complete crapshoot. 

     

     
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  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from Schumpeters-Ghost. Show Schumpeters-Ghost's posts

    Re: Psst...We have a really good well rounded Playoff quality offense this year. Y/N?

    In response to LR3683paw's comment:

    I do wish that you could take the summer off from following the Red Sox and go to the coast. Unfortunately Las Vegas is a day away from the coast.  Why not go see Boulder Dam once more or play the Casinos? Why not place a bet on the Sox finishing last? Put your money where your mouth is? That way you will be a winner on both fronts.




     

    The insane dandruff-eater strikes again!

     
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  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from Joebreidey. Show Joebreidey's posts

    Re: Psst...We have a really good well rounded Playoff quality offense this year. Y/N?

    In response to Schumpeters-Ghost's comment:

    In response to Joebreidey's comment:

     

    In response to Schumpeters-Ghost's comment:

     

    In response to Joebreidey's comment:

     

    OPS is way more important than average.  Check FG to see what their projected OPS' are.

     




     

    Use whatever stats you want - it doesn't change the fact that the line up posted (12 names) has 50% MAJOR question marks

     

     



    But one of the three holes you mentioned finished 3rd in his position in HRs.  I mean, if the average OPS for an AL catcher is .710, and Salty is at .742, is that really a major hole?  Or put another way, the NYY, Detroit, and Oakland have two things in common.  They all finished 1st, and they all had a huge hole at catcher, since all 3 catchers had a lower OPS than Salty.

     

     




     

     

    As I said - I am hopeful for Salt.  I like him and think he still has upside as a player and will improve.  Salt is a ? - but I am hopeful for him.

    Drew, Gomes, Napoli - are massive question marks - and just not great signs.

     

    Let's remember the OP asked do we have a playoff offense?  4 of 9 huge questions marks - and Victorino is a small question mark.  Middlebrooks - I hope he is not a question mark.

    Only Ells, Pedroia, and Ortiz can be expected to play at a high level.  The rest is a complete crapshoot. 

     



    It is still a playoff offense, just not a guaranteed playoff offense.  Right now, we project to have the best offense in the league.  We project to have a better than average offense at all 9 offensive positions.  Just for fun, I will list last year's OPS by position-

    • 1B .778
    • 2B .685
    • SS .674
    • 3B .740
    • LF .750
    • CF .757
    • RF .753
    • DH .758
    • C   .710

    Which position would you expect us to finish behind league average?

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from Joebreidey. Show Joebreidey's posts

    Re: Psst...We have a really good well rounded Playoff quality offense this year. Y/N?

    It is still a playoff offense, just not a guaranteed playoff offense.  Right now, we project to have the best offense in the league.  We project to have a better than average offense at all 9 offensive positions.  Just for fun, I will list last year's OPS by position-

     

    • 1B .778
    • 2B .685
    • SS .674
    • 3B .740
    • LF .750
    • CF .757
    • RF .753
    • DH .758
    • C   .710

    Which position would you expect us to finish behind league average?

    Any of negativistas?

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from SonicsMonksLyresVicars. Show SonicsMonksLyresVicars's posts

    Re: Psst...We have a really good well rounded Playoff quality offense this year. Y/N?

    In response to Schumpeters-Ghost's comment:

    In response to carnie's comment:

     

    I don't see anything wrong with this lineup

    Ellsbury

    Pedroia

    Ortiz

    Napoli

    Middlebrooks

    Victorino

    Gomes/Nava/Kalish

    Salty/Ross

    Drew

     




    Really?  You don't see anything wrong with this lineup?

     

    There is not a single player who hit .300 in 2012 in that lineup and then there is this:

    Napoli .227

    Salt .223

    Drew .222

    That's three projected starters with .227 or lower.

     



    Batting average again?  Hooray!  I learn so much from you!

    Why don't you hop into your Edsel, drive down to your local library and look up some advanced statistics?

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from SonicsMonksLyresVicars. Show SonicsMonksLyresVicars's posts

    Re: Psst...We have a really good well rounded Playoff quality offense this year. Y/N?

    In response to Joebreidey's comment:

     

    OPS is way more important than average.  Check FG to see what their projected OPS' are.

      

    Use whatever stats you want - it doesn't change the fact that the line up posted (12 names) has 50% MAJOR question marks

     
    But one of the three holes you mentioned finished 3rd in his position in HRs.  I mean, if the average OPS for an AL catcher is .710, and Salty is at .742, is that really a major hole?  Or put another way, the NYY, Detroit, and Oakland have two things in common.  They all finished 1st, and they all had a huge hole at catcher, since all 3 catchers had a lower OPS than Salty.

     

     




     

     

    As I said - I am hopeful for Salt.  I like him and think he still has upside as a player and will improve.  Salt is a ? - but I am hopeful for him.

    Drew, Gomes, Napoli - are massive question marks - and just not great signs.

     

    Let's remember the OP asked do we have a playoff offense?  4 of 9 huge questions marks - and Victorino is a small question mark.  Middlebrooks - I hope he is not a question mark.

    Only Ells, Pedroia, and Ortiz can be expected to play at a high level.  The rest is a complete crapshoot. 

     

    It is still a playoff offense, just not a guaranteed playoff offense.  Right now, we project to have the best offense in the league.  We project to have a better than average offense at all 9 offensive positions.  Just for fun, I will list last year's OPS by position-

    • 1B .778 (Napoli was .812 last year, primarily as a catcher and injured)
    • SS .674 (Drew was .657 last year, coming back from a major injury)

    Which position would you expect us to finish behind league average?



    Plus neither is old and both are on one-year contracts so are playing for multi-million dollar, multi year contracts.  Only an arch complainer would see those glasses as half-full.

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from Schumpeters-Ghost. Show Schumpeters-Ghost's posts

    Re: Psst...We have a really good well rounded Playoff quality offense this year. Y/N?

    In response to SonicsMonksLyresVicars' comment:

    In response to Schumpeters-Ghost's comment:

     

    In response to carnie's comment:

     

    I don't see anything wrong with this lineup

    Ellsbury

    Pedroia

    Ortiz

    Napoli

    Middlebrooks

    Victorino

    Gomes/Nava/Kalish

    Salty/Ross

    Drew

     




    Really?  You don't see anything wrong with this lineup?

     

    There is not a single player who hit .300 in 2012 in that lineup and then there is this:

    Napoli .227

    Salt .223

    Drew .222

    That's three projected starters with .227 or lower.

     



     

    Batting average again?  Hooray!  I learn so much from you!

    Why don't you hop into your Edsel, drive down to your local library and look up some advanced statistics?




    Right because we all know that a .225 average is AWESOME and indicates that the player is great.

     

    Except when it comes to young players like Iggy.  He is terrible.

    Oh - and Reddick.  He is rotten at .240.

     

    But our new acquisitions?  They are great!!!

     

    Pass the kool-aid

     

     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from Joebreidey. Show Joebreidey's posts

    Re: Psst...We have a really good well rounded Playoff quality offense this year. Y/N?

    In response to SonicsMonksLyresVicars' comment:

    In response to Joebreidey's comment:

     

     

    OPS is way more important than average.  Check FG to see what their projected OPS' are.

      

    Use whatever stats you want - it doesn't change the fact that the line up posted (12 names) has 50% MAJOR question marks

     
    But one of the three holes you mentioned finished 3rd in his position in HRs.  I mean, if the average OPS for an AL catcher is .710, and Salty is at .742, is that really a major hole?  Or put another way, the NYY, Detroit, and Oakland have two things in common.  They all finished 1st, and they all had a huge hole at catcher, since all 3 catchers had a lower OPS than Salty.

     

     




     

     

    As I said - I am hopeful for Salt.  I like him and think he still has upside as a player and will improve.  Salt is a ? - but I am hopeful for him.

    Drew, Gomes, Napoli - are massive question marks - and just not great signs.

     

    Let's remember the OP asked do we have a playoff offense?  4 of 9 huge questions marks - and Victorino is a small question mark.  Middlebrooks - I hope he is not a question mark.

    Only Ells, Pedroia, and Ortiz can be expected to play at a high level.  The rest is a complete crapshoot. 

     

    It is still a playoff offense, just not a guaranteed playoff offense.  Right now, we project to have the best offense in the league.  We project to have a better than average offense at all 9 offensive positions.  Just for fun, I will list last year's OPS by position-

    • 1B .778 (Napoli was .812 last year, primarily as a catcher and injured)
    • SS .674 (Drew was .657 last year, coming back from a major injury)

    Which position would you expect us to finish behind league average?

     



    Plus neither is old and both are on one-year contracts so are playing for multi-million dollar, multi year contracts.  Only an arch complainer would see those glasses as half-full.

     



    The thing that separates us from the apes is that h. sapiens possess the ability to gamble, to weigh the risks and rewards of two choices.  People do so subconsciously.  Will that girl say yes, or will I look like an idiot?  Should I buy a house or rent.  What direction is the market going to go and what should I do with my 401k.

    If any of the whiners would like to wager on any position, I would be glad to do so.  See, one of the ancillary benefits of wagering is that it displays confidence in one's opinions.  A lot of people have a lot of crazy opinions.  It is only when you ask them how much money they have in their pocket that you see whether or not they were serious.

     
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  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from SonicsMonksLyresVicars. Show SonicsMonksLyresVicars's posts

    Re: Psst...We have a really good well rounded Playoff quality offense this year. Y/N?

    In response to Schumpeters-Ghost's comment:

     



    Really?  You don't see anything wrong with this lineup?

     

    There is not a single player who hit .300 in 2012 in that lineup and then there is this:

    Napoli .227

    Salt .223

    Drew .222

    That's three projected starters with .227 or lower.

     



     

    Batting average again?  Hooray!  I learn so much from you!

    Why don't you hop into your Edsel, drive down to your local library and look up some advanced statistics?

     




     

    Right because we all know that a .225 average is AWESOME and indicates that the player is great.

     

    Except when it comes to young players like Iggy.  He is terrible.

    Oh - and Reddick.  He is rotten at .240.

     

    But our new acquisitions?  They are great!!!

     

    Pass the kool-aid

     

     




    What is wrong with you?  Why can't you understand that walks are important and that BA ignores them?   Drew's career 162-game average for walks is 58, part of his career OBP of .328.  Iggy's had only 64 walks in 261 MINOR LEAGUE GAMES, a 162-game average of 40.  Iggy's SSS 162-game MLB average is only 19.

     

     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from SonicsMonksLyresVicars. Show SonicsMonksLyresVicars's posts

    Re: Psst...We have a really good well rounded Playoff quality offense this year. Y/N?

    In response to Joebreidey's comment:



    The thing that separates us from the apes is that h. sapiens possess the ability to gamble, to weigh the risks and rewards of two choices.  People do so subconsciously.  Will that girl say yes, or will I look like an idiot?  Should I buy a house or rent.  What direction is the market going to go and what should I do with my 401k.

     

    If any of the whiners would like to wager on any position, I would be glad to do so.  See, one of the ancillary benefits of wagering is that it displays confidence in one's opinions.  A lot of people have a lot of crazy opinions.  It is only when you ask them how much money they have in their pocket that you see whether or not they were serious.



    I've long advocated a betting service but, alas, the pesky US gambling laws don't permit it.  Very few of the complainers would bet on their positions.  Schump is a joke:  you offered to bet an over/under but he replied he won't admit he's wrong unless it's sufficiently over!  Hahaha

     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from rickerd2. Show rickerd2's posts

    Re: Psst...We have a really good well rounded Playoff quality offense this year. Y/N?

    In response to Triumph-'s comment:

    In response to Schumpeters-Ghost's comment:

     

    In response to SonicsMonksLyresVicars' comment:

     

    In response to Schumpeters-Ghost's comment:

     

    In response to carnie's comment:

     

    I don't see anything wrong with this lineup

    Ellsbury

    Pedroia

    Ortiz

    Napoli

    Middlebrooks

    Victorino

    Gomes/Nava/Kalish

    Salty/Ross

    Drew

     




    Really?  You don't see anything wrong with this lineup?

     

    There is not a single player who hit .300 in 2012 in that lineup and then there is this:

    Napoli .227

    Salt .223

    Drew .222

    That's three projected starters with .227 or lower.

     



     

    Batting average again?  Hooray!  I learn so much from you!

    Why don't you hop into your Edsel, drive down to your local library and look up some advanced statistics?

     




     

    Right because we all know that a .225 average is AWESOME and indicates that the player is great.

     

    Except when it comes to young players like Iggy.  He is terrible.

    Oh - and Reddick.  He is rotten at .240.

     

    But our new acquisitions?  They are great!!!

     

    Pass the kool-aid

     

     




     

     

     

    pass the whine



    Oh, and don't forget the cheese, please.

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from Joebreidey. Show Joebreidey's posts

    Re: Psst...We have a really good well rounded Playoff quality offense this year. Y/N?

    In response to SonicsMonksLyresVicars' comment:

    In response to Joebreidey's comment:

     



    The thing that separates us from the apes is that h. sapiens possess the ability to gamble, to weigh the risks and rewards of two choices.  People do so subconsciously.  Will that girl say yes, or will I look like an idiot?  Should I buy a house or rent.  What direction is the market going to go and what should I do with my 401k.

     

    If any of the whiners would like to wager on any position, I would be glad to do so.  See, one of the ancillary benefits of wagering is that it displays confidence in one's opinions.  A lot of people have a lot of crazy opinions.  It is only when you ask them how much money they have in their pocket that you see whether or not they were serious.

     



    I've long advocated a betting service but, alas, the pesky US gambling laws don't permit it.  Very few of the complainers would bet on their positions.  Schump is a joke:  you offered to bet an over/under but he replied he won't admit he's wrong unless it's sufficiently over!  Hahaha

     



    It is the great debate ended.  And I've been on both sides.  I've offered people wagers on pool, poker, bowling, the ability to catch a ball, who can hit the ball further, who can skate faster, etc.  It can be humbling to hear your opponent ask if you want to go double or nothing.  Then you have two choices: fight or flight.

    It is almost a universal truth, but I have never seen either myself, or an opponent, throw away good money after bad money.  It is the money that separates a conversation from a commitment (Buffet) and opinion from a fact (Joey).

     
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  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from georom4. Show georom4's posts

    Re: Psst...We have a really good well rounded Playoff quality offense this year. Y/N?

    didnt we have a good offense last year?

     

    how has the pitching improved? dempster??? lackey?  evn fat and ignorant beckett was better than these tow guys..

     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from tom-uk. Show tom-uk's posts

    Re: Psst...We have a really good well rounded Playoff quality offense this year. Y/N?

    In response to Joebreidey's comment:

    It is still a playoff offense, just not a guaranteed playoff offense.  Right now, we project to have the best offense in the league.  We project to have a better than average offense at all 9 offensive positions.  Just for fun, I will list last year's OPS by position-

     

    • 1B .778
    • 2B .685
    • SS .674
    • 3B .740
    • LF .750
    • CF .757
    • RF .753
    • DH .758
    • C   .710

    Which position would you expect us to finish behind league average?

    Any of negativistas?



    Joe, posting road and home combined OPS averages when half of the games are in Fenway and AL East road games are in hitting friendly environments skews the OPS numbers.  

    Last year, with the down years and injuries the Sox scored 734 (5th in AL) which sounds ok expecting some regression in 2013, but 419 runs (2nd to Tex) were at home and 315 runs (last in AL) were on the road.  

    That being said the O should be good, and with Texas and NYY looking worse on paper I'd not be surprised if the Sox were high in the AL OPS rank.   As it should be when you look at the cost.

     

     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from SonicsMonksLyresVicars. Show SonicsMonksLyresVicars's posts

    Re: Psst...We have a really good well rounded Playoff quality offense this year. Y/N?

    In response to tom-uk's comment:

     

    Joe, posting road and home combined OPS averages when half of the games are in Fenway and AL East road games are in hitting friendly environments skews the OPS numbers.  

    Last year, with the down years and injuries the Sox scored 734 (5th in AL) which sounds ok expecting some regression in 2013, but 419 runs (2nd to Tex) were at home and 315 runs (last in AL) were on the road.  

    That being said the O should be good, and with Texas and NYY looking worse on paper I'd not be surprised if the Sox were high in the AL OPS rank.   As it should be when you look at the cost.

     

     



    That's fair, Tom, so let's compare apples to apples:

     

     

    I think we almost certainly will finish top 3 in runs scored in 2013 and top wouldn't shock me. Look at last year: wracked by injury all season and fielding a AAAA lineup for the last six weeks we still finished 5th in runs scored. We could improve at every position and will at most, in all probability. Don't forget, AGon had a poor year (for him) then Loney finished up at first, Pedey was injured, Youk was poor and Midds was injured late at 3rd, etc.

    Look at last season's RED SOX OPS by position :

     

    • 1B .795
    • 2B .768
    • SS .642
    • 3B .703
    • LF .744
    • CF .654
    • RF .751
    • DH .833
    • C  .708

    Assuming reasonable health, we should see improvements - some huge - at 8 positions.  RF might be an OPS push, but with great fielding and base running from Shane I can live with that....and he may bounce back to .800 or so, you never know.

     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from Joebreidey. Show Joebreidey's posts

    Re: Psst...We have a really good well rounded Playoff quality offense this year. Y/N?

    In response to pinstripezac's comment:

    really JB ?

    while playing the ' he won't bet' card

    on the street might have some merit

    not so much on a message board

    why risk my credibility or what ever the bet is

    when I can't be confident payment will be paid

    goes through my mind

    way B4 reconsidering what I said



    The way I see things, you don't risk credibility by wagering, you lose it when you strongly endorse an opinion, then back off when offered a tag bet.  You can state something reasonable, like you think the NYY will beat out the RS.  That may or may not happen, but it is reasonable.

    But if someone comes in with an opinion with no statistical support, then they need to called on it.  I understand there is a movement that says all opnions are equal, and that there is no such thing as being wrong, but in the real world, I cannot voice a single opinion that cannot be backed up with statistics.

     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from Joebreidey. Show Joebreidey's posts

    Re: Psst...We have a really good well rounded Playoff quality offense this year. Y/N?

    In response to tom-uk's comment:

    In response to Joebreidey's comment:

     

    It is still a playoff offense, just not a guaranteed playoff offense.  Right now, we project to have the best offense in the league.  We project to have a better than average offense at all 9 offensive positions.  Just for fun, I will list last year's OPS by position-

     

    • 1B .778
    • 2B .685
    • SS .674
    • 3B .740
    • LF .750
    • CF .757
    • RF .753
    • DH .758
    • C   .710

    Which position would you expect us to finish behind league average?

    Any of negativistas?

     



    Joe, posting road and home combined OPS averages when half of the games are in Fenway and AL East road games are in hitting friendly environments skews the OPS numbers.  

     

    Last year, with the down years and injuries the Sox scored 734 (5th in AL) which sounds ok expecting some regression in 2013, but 419 runs (2nd to Tex) were at home and 315 runs (last in AL) were on the road.  

    That being said the O should be good, and with Texas and NYY looking worse on paper I'd not be surprised if the Sox were high in the AL OPS rank.   As it should be when you look at the cost.

     



    Sounds reasonable.  As you say, it would not be a surprise to see us having the best OPS in the league.  Which of course doesn't necessarily mean the best offense, since this Fenway.  But if someone wants to claim that we have four major holes, when we those four major holes figure to be above average, then the claim is just silly.

     
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  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Psst...We have a really good well rounded Playoff quality offense this year. Y/N?

    Last year, with the down years and injuries the Sox scored 734 (5th in AL) which sounds ok expecting some regression in 2013, but 419 runs (2nd to Tex) were at home and 315 runs (last in AL) were on the road.  

    How can we explain the massive differential between our road numbers of 2011 vs 2012?

    2012: 26th with 315 runs scored (last in AL) / 27th in OPS at .671 (Last in AL)

    2011: 1st with 415 runs scored (first in AL) / 2nd in OPS at .780 (First in AL)

    We went from 1st to last in road runs and OPS in 1 year. Yes, Jacoby's injury was a big part, but there is more to it than that.

     

     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from Joebreidey. Show Joebreidey's posts

    Re: Psst...We have a really good well rounded Playoff quality offense this year. Y/N?

    maybe credibility was the wrong word

    I was referring to losing the bet not making it

    my point stands if someone offers me a tag bet

    I probably won't make it 

    because I don't trust the other guy to pay up online

    not because I don't have confidence in what I said

    posters disappear / change screens names here all the time

    after being proved wrong

    real life would be a tad different



    I'm not prone to changing screen names.  I agree that I wouldn't take a tag bet from someone that I don't know, and I don't offer them to just anyone, but if you said the RS didn't stand a chance of winning more than 65, I'd offer to take you up on that.

    BTW, have I ever offered you a tag bet?

    I have no problem with opinions that can't be backed up with statistics

    or if others call people on such opinions

    I know you and many others love the numbers

    but is there not a lot more to a discussion than just the stats

    It depends on the precision and ludicrousness of the opinion.

    The first need is to have something that can be easily proven.  To say Drew is worth or not worth $9.5M is almost impossible to prove.  To say a team will win at least 81 is easily proven.

    The second need is to have someone offer a really stupid opinion.  If I were to say I don't think the NYY will win more than 90 is kind of blase.  That will likely be the LV number within one or two wins, so no one cares.  When Geo claimed the RS were going to trade Beckett before the season started, and we were already in spring training, that was about a 1% chance of being correct.

    The 3rd need is to have someone talking in absolutes and certainties.  If I think the NYY will win about 89, and you think the NYY will about 90, then we are essentially in agreement.  If I say there is no chance of them winning > 89 and you say there is no chance of them winning < 90, then we have a disagreement.

    In this case, we have someone claiming we have four black holes in the lineup.  My counter to that is that all 4 project to have a higher than average OPS.  That is

    • Easily proven
    • A claim I believe is ludicrous
    • The author of the opinion seems fairly certain, and a wide-enough chasm for the basis of a bet.  I offered to bet on any one of 9 different positions.  If he beleives there are 4 holes, then it should be an easy enough proposition to find someone with an OPS lower than the league average.
     
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    Re: Psst...We have a really good well rounded Playoff quality offense this year. Y/N?

    In response to Joebreidey's comment:

    It is still a playoff offense, just not a guaranteed playoff offense.  Right now, we project to have the best offense in the league.  We project to have a better than average offense at all 9 offensive positions.  Just for fun, I will list last year's OPS by position-

     

    • 1B .778
    • 2B .685
    • SS .674
    • 3B .740
    • LF .750
    • CF .757
    • RF .753
    • DH .758
    • C   .710

    Which position would you expect us to finish behind league average?

    Any of negativistas?



    No interest from any of the whiners?  That's 9 positions to choose from.  Cannot you guys find at least one position that you think we will below league average?

     

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