Bunch of thoughts on the QO draft pick compensation.
Lets start with the fact that there is a difference between the 11th pick in a draft and the 21st. And the 41st. Those picks don't have equal value. The 21st pick might have 50% the value of 11. And the 41st pick might have 100% less value then the 11th.
Last years draft was considered weak. This years draft is considered stronger. Something to keep in mind.
Its amazing that the Red Sox were so intent on protecting last years 45th pick in a weak draft. I think that could have been a mistake depending on the free agent. However, protecting this years low 20's first rounder makes a lot more sense.
Which gets to one of my main points. Not all free agent QO guys are alike. Their is an extreme difference between Robinson Cano and say Kendrys Morales.
Also their is a difference in value between signing a player for 1 year and signing one for 8 years. Cano for 8 years and Kuroda for just 1 year as good examples.
Finally, other then the difference in draft postion, their shouldn't be considered any difference between protecting your own pick by not signing a QO free agent and gaining a draft pick by letting your own free agents go.
So my point is that we should consider who we not only sign and for how long and whether they are worth the pick lost, but also who we RESIGN and whether they are worth the pick we are LOSING.
The Red Sox are likely to have a pick in the low 20's[21-25] as well as 3 QO pick's in the low 30's[32-37] if we do nothing. So lets say 23 and 33 for arguments sake depending on whether its signing somebody else's FA or resigning our own guys.
So lets start with our own. And lets guess the length of the deal. Is Ellsbury worth losing the 33rd pick in a strong draft if we sign him to a 6 year deal? Not only is he worth that, he is worth maybe 4 picks. What about Drew on a 4 year deal? I think he is worth 1 pick. Napoli on a 2 year deal? He probably is not even worth 1 pick. Which is one reason I am leaning against resigning Napoli.
What about other teams FA's? For just 1 season of Kuroda I would not give up our 23rd pick. Same goes for Morales for any amount of years. Same with Beltran. But Cano I would happily give up 6 picks for. And I would happily give up 2-3 23rd picks in the draft for 5 years of Sin-Shoo-Choo.
My point being that signing and keeping Ellsbury or even signing Sin Shoo Choo makes a lot more sense then signing and keeping Napoli. Getting the draft choice for Napoli if there is somebody stupid enough to give up a pick for him is a wise decision. And I would be happy to sign Ellsbury or Choo on a reasonable contract and lose either pick no problem.