QO Compensation

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from BMav. Show BMav's posts

    QO Compensation

    Bunch of thoughts on the QO draft pick compensation.

    Lets start with the fact that there is a difference between the 11th pick in a draft and the 21st. And the 41st. Those picks don't have equal value. The 21st pick might have 50% the value of 11. And the 41st pick might have 100% less value then the 11th.

    Last years draft was considered weak. This years draft is considered stronger. Something to keep in mind.

    Its amazing that the Red Sox were so intent on protecting last years 45th pick in a weak draft. I think that could have been a mistake depending on the free agent. However, protecting this years low 20's first rounder makes a lot more sense.

    Which gets to one of my main points. Not all free agent QO guys are alike. Their is an extreme difference between Robinson Cano and say Kendrys Morales.

    Also their is a difference in value between signing a player for 1 year and signing one for 8 years. Cano for 8 years and Kuroda for just 1 year as good examples.

    Finally, other then the difference in draft postion, their shouldn't be considered any difference between protecting your own pick by not signing a QO free agent and gaining a draft pick by letting your own free agents go.

    So my point is that we should consider who we not only sign and for how long and whether they are worth the pick lost, but also who we RESIGN and whether they are worth the pick we are LOSING.

    The Red Sox are likely to have a pick in the low 20's[21-25] as well as 3 QO pick's in the low 30's[32-37] if we do nothing. So lets say 23 and 33 for arguments sake depending on whether its signing somebody else's FA or resigning our own guys.

    So lets start with our own. And lets guess the length of the deal. Is Ellsbury worth losing the 33rd pick in a strong draft if we sign him to a 6 year deal? Not only is he worth that, he is worth maybe 4 picks. What about Drew on a 4 year deal? I think he is worth 1 pick. Napoli on a 2 year deal? He probably is not even worth 1 pick. Which is one reason I am leaning against resigning Napoli.

    What about other teams FA's? For just 1 season of Kuroda I would not give up our 23rd pick. Same goes for Morales for any amount of years. Same with Beltran. But Cano I would happily give up 6 picks for. And I would happily give up 2-3 23rd picks in the draft for 5 years of Sin-Shoo-Choo.

    My point being that signing and keeping Ellsbury or even signing Sin Shoo Choo makes a lot more sense then signing and keeping Napoli. Getting the draft choice for Napoli if there is somebody stupid enough to give up a pick for him is a wise decision. And I would be happy to sign Ellsbury or Choo on a reasonable contract and lose either pick no problem.

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from ctredsoxfanhugh. Show ctredsoxfanhugh's posts

    Re: QO Compensation

    Risk vs. reward.  If someone like Ellsbury is signed for 7 years, then the sox get 7 years of production out of an elite player as opposed to several years from a Beltran/Drew type.  But if falters then he could handicap a team for several years as well.

    Of course that risk is present regardless of draft compensation, all things considered I'd rather give up a pick for a better player as well.

    Ive been hearing very good things as well about next years draft, the talent issupposed to mirror the 2010, 11 drafts in terms of depth.  As of today those two years stand as one of Boston's best back to back drafts as far as I can remember.  I value draft picks a lot and it appears the Sox do too.  

    Another thing to consider about the extra draft picks isn't just the chance to add anther player with talent but also the extra picks will push up Boston's draft pool.  If we had the draft pool money I presume we will have this year if they net all there picks last year  then there's a really good chance they ended up signing guys like Ryan Boldt, and Jordan Sheffield. Who may have been just as talented as Ball and Denney, or at least close to it.

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from hill55. Show hill55's posts

    Re: QO Compensation

    In response to BMav's comment:

    My point being that signing and keeping Ellsbury or even signing Sin Shoo Choo makes a lot more sense then signing and keeping Napoli. Getting the draft choice for Napoli if there is somebody stupid enough to give up a pick for him is a wise decision. And I would be happy to sign Ellsbury or Choo on a reasonable contract and lose either pick no problem.

    Would Seattle's second-round pick, currently at No. 49, be too much for the Mariners to give up to sign Mike Napoli if the M's still retain the No. 6 and the current No. 31 picks?

    How many unprotected first-round picks do you think will be forfeited now that we're down to 19 unprotected first-round picks?

    Some qualified-offer free agents will sign with their teams from this year, some will sign with teams with protected first-round picks and some will sign with teams that have already forfeited a first-round pick with an earlier signing.

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from BMav. Show BMav's posts

    Re: QO Compensation

    In response to hill55's comment:

    In response to BMav's comment:

    My point being that signing and keeping Ellsbury or even signing Sin Shoo Choo makes a lot more sense then signing and keeping Napoli. Getting the draft choice for Napoli if there is somebody stupid enough to give up a pick for him is a wise decision. And I would be happy to sign Ellsbury or Choo on a reasonable contract and lose either pick no problem.

    Would Seattle's second-round pick, currently at No. 49, be too much for the Mariners to give up to sign Mike Napoli if the M's still retain the No. 6 and the current No. 31 picks?

    How many unprotected first-round picks do you think will be forfeited now that we're down to 19 unprotected first-round picks?

    Some qualified-offer free agents will sign with their teams from this year, some will sign with teams with protected first-round picks and some will sign with teams that have already forfeited a first-round pick with an earlier signing.



    I agree that we don't know yet how many non protected picks will be lost for the reasons you mentioned. Thats why I gave a range for where the red sox will end up drafting. I am guessing 5-9 total compensation picks.

    Personally, I would not give a 11-25 first rounder for Napoli. But the 49th pick is a different story. Its a closer call. But since the hip is such a bif factor for me, I probably lean against that too.

    I hope the Red sox hold the line at 1 year. I would be cool signing him for that because it limits the danger of the hip. Plus, it keeps open the possibility of giving him the QO next year if he performs. We could get the pick next year still. But if Seattle scoops him up, thats cool with me.

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: QO Compensation

    Here are some of our draft picks...

    2005

    23 Ellsbury

    42 Buchholz

    45 Lowrie

    2006

    9th round: Kalish

    2007

    5th round: Middlebrooks

    2008

    85 Stephen Fife

    6th rd Lava

    9th rd Vazquez

    2009

    77 Alex Wilson

    2010

    36 Brentz

    39 Ranaudo

    57 Workman

    110 Coyle

    2011

    19 Barnes

    26 Swihart

    36 Owens

    40 JBJ

    5th rd Betts

     

     

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from crazyworldoftroybrown. Show crazyworldoftroybrown's posts

    Re: QO Compensation

    Mozeliak thinks so high of this Draft that he didn't want to lose the 30th pick. Big reason they went for Peralta.

     
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  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: QO Compensation

    In response to crazyworldoftroybrown's comment:

    Mozeliak thinks so high of this Draft that he didn't want to lose the 30th pick. Big reason they went for Peralta.



    One reason I'd like to see us try and stay strong without losing a pick.

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from crazyworldoftroybrown. Show crazyworldoftroybrown's posts

    Re: QO Compensation

    Yes sir, what I'm hoping one day is we can Draft best available or Best athlete, and not Draft for need. Let other teams worry about Drafting for need.

     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from garyhow. Show garyhow's posts

    Re: QO Compensation

    In response to crazyworldoftroybrown's comment:

    Yes sir, what I'm hoping one day is we can Draft best available or Best athlete, and not Draft for need. Let other teams worry about Drafting for need.




    One of the reasons I say we stay and rebuild from within if possible, or trade if we need to fill a need. If we add 4-5 top picks in the upcoming draft and w/ the talent already on the farm, we will have to trade out of neccesity [to make room for the up and comers] not to fill a need. Many on this site want to sign a Kuroda or similar and your point is spot on! Many here have mentioned trading Dempster or Peavy and siging a Kuroda, in reality it is Peavy or Dempster + a draft pick.Think this is the biggest difference between RS and Yanks, RS clearly place a higher value on picks, while Yanks are perfectly content w/ losing picks on 30+ FA's to big $ contracts. Eventually you end up w/ the Arods / V.Wells / Ichiro's /Jeter /Tex's / Sorianos all battling for time as your DH? and a huge luxury tax bill.

     

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from ctredsoxfanhugh. Show ctredsoxfanhugh's posts

    Re: QO Compensation

    In response to crazyworldoftroybrown's comment:

    Yes sir, what I'm hoping one day is we can Draft best available or Best athlete, and not Draft for need. Let other teams worry about Drafting for need.



    I'd say we do this now.  Sox always take talent over need. They take a lot of arms and up the middle defense guys as they are usually the most athletic.  Also many draftees won't be seen for,3-5 years+ and there's no real way of knowing precisely what your needs will be.  I'd say the only thing the sox shy away from is drafting first baseman, which makes sense to me.

    Also in recent years they moved towards drafting more pitchers which is starting to show in our system.  It's easier to pick up offense on the market than pitching so I hope that trend continues.

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from ctredsoxfanhugh. Show ctredsoxfanhugh's posts

    Re: QO Compensation

    In response to garyhow's comment:

    In response to crazyworldoftroybrown's comment:

    Yes sir, what I'm hoping one day is we can Draft best available or Best athlete, and not Draft for need. Let other teams worry about Drafting for need.




    One of the reasons I say we stay and rebuild from within if possible, or trade if we need to fill a need. If we add 4-5 top picks in the upcoming draft and w/ the talent already on the farm, we will have to trade out of neccesity [to make room for the up and comers] not to fill a need. Many on this site want to sign a Kuroda or similar and your point is spot on! Many here have mentioned trading Dempster or Peavy and siging a Kuroda, in reality it is Peavy or Dempster + a draft pick.Think this is the biggest difference between RS and Yanks, RS clearly place a higher value on picks, while Yanks are perfectly content w/ losing picks on 30+ FA's to big $ contracts. Eventually you end up w/ the Arods / V.Wells / Ichiro's /Jeter /Tex's / Sorianos all battling for time as your DH? and a huge luxury tax bill.

     



    The lower tier of the system isn't exactly booming with talent like the top end is.  No need to trade top prospects who in no way will block any future draftees ever.  Unless they go bust, and stall e.g. Kolbrn Vitek.  But when that happens things tend to work themselves out.

     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from BMav. Show BMav's posts

    Re: QO Compensation

    In response to garyhow's comment:




    Think this is the biggest difference between RS and Yanks, RS clearly place a higher value on picks, while Yanks are perfectly content w/ losing picks on 30+ FA's to big $ contracts.

     



    The Yankees have only 1 top 100 prospect. Gary Sanchez. There second best prospect? J.R. Murphy. Their top player under 25 on the big league team? Austin Romine. And their first major signing of the off season? Brian McCann. All catchers.

    The Yankees will likely not have a first or second rounder this year and all their good young players are catchers and they are all blocked by McCann. LOL.

 
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