Re: Quickly Competitive ...or else a fire sale/re-rebuild?
posted at 12/29/2012 7:33 PM EST
Here is some of that article:
Although the Boston Red Sox spent heavily this offseason to improve a team that lost 93 games in 2012, they could trade many of their players this summer if the team doesn't play as expected.
WEEI’s Alex Speier outlined how the Red Sox have spent over $150 million this offseason in an effort to fill numerous roster holes.
Other than figuring out their first base situation, the Red Sox may have made their last major move before spring training by finalizing a trade for new closer Joel Hanrahan.
Although the Red Sox hope their moves will help them compete in 2013, the current composition of their roster makes a fire sale later this summer a very strong possibility if the team falls out of contention.
As Eddie Kasko once said: "If ifs and buts, were candy and nuts, we'd all have a helluva Christmas." This article speculates on situations that are not likely to happen. While I don't necessarily expect the Red Sox to be front runners at the trading deadline, it's more likely that they'll be in that gray area where they're in contention, but not necessarily in a clear position to make the playoffs. Heck, even the dreadful 2012 Red Sox were only 3.5 games out of the wildcard race at the deadline. If one or a few of the acquired players are performing well mid-season, they're not likely to part with a player whose continued success they would be relying on to secure a possible playoff spot. On the other hand, if the acquired player was not playing well, they would have little or no trade value.
The more likely scenario would be that a prospect or two develops ahead of schedule and performs well when given an opportunity when say, a regular goes down with an injury (see Middlebrooks, 2012). Hopefully, if this happens, the team will manage it better than they did with Youk last season and get more out of it than a bag of balls. Trade opportunities will develop when gluts occur. Who knows, maybe Ryan Kalish will emerge this season and make Ellsbury expendable. Maybe it will be Lavernway making Salty more expendable. While the Sox may not have top tier pitchers, they may get solid production from a deep (and hopefully healthy) staff, making someone available. We already know they are loaded in the bullpen and some more shuffling will take place before the season starts. If they can hang on to as many as these arms as they can, they may be able to reap some rewards at the deadline. Someone like Bard or Andrew Miller could reap nice dividends down the road.
But fire sale? Not bloody likely. That's more for teams like Cleveland and Florida.