Re: Realistic Yankee Thread
posted at 2/23/2012 11:02 AM EST
In Response to Re: Realistic Yankee Thread
[QUOTE]No disrespect intended here. I am one who welcomes respectful Yankee fans on this site, but it seems a lot of Yankee threads morph into exchanges of platitudes and patting each others back. Can we get back to baseball? I know there's not much going on now, but here's a couple Yankee baseball questions: 1) Out of about 650 PAs by the Yankee DH this year, how many does Ibanez get? Andrew Jones? ARod? Jeter? others? Give me your opinions. 2) Who is the odd man out in their 5 man rotation? Garcia, Hughes, or Pineda? (Side Q: would Garcia make a good LR man?) Tahwwk amongst yourselves.
Posted by moonslav59[/QUOTE]
Legit questions and my opinions.
I agree with Babe as to LH/RH DH AB's will depend on opposing pitching. But that holds true for every team who has a platoon at the position. In NY's case, the DH is a flexible position to be used to rest players unlike the beginning of last year with Posada. I can see Girardi trying to give Jeter and A-Rod a day off the field once every 10 games and putting them in the DH slot. I think it depends on opposing team and pitchers. I think Grandy, Tex, Swish and Cano will also be given a couple of games here and there at the DH slot.
Early reports on A. Jones have been excellent, both physical and mental. His numbers against LH pitchers were pretty good last year and he was hurting all year. Ibanez had excellent numbers against RH pitching (power wise). I thinnk overall, the DH numbers you get out of NY are going to be some of the best in baseball. I also think Gardner is not a lock to play 150 games in the OF and Jones will see plenty of time there as well. There are a lot of LH pitching in the AL.
I think Tex has a monster bounce back year as far as average is concerned. He has talked about it all off-season and I think is primed to return to his career B.A. & OBP. Especially now that he will be in the number 5 hole instead of #3.
This is only conjecture on my part, but based on the results that Kobe is showing from the procedure which he recommended to A-Rod, I think you will see a return to a .280 BA with 35 HR's; 120 RBI's for the big dope.
Obviously A-Rod and Jeter are aging and there is a decline in their game, but I will not register their decline like most other players. These are two of the best all-around athletes baseball has seen in the last 25 years. I fully expect Jeter to hit career averages, except in stolen bases. Girardi will watch over both of them carefuly. Obviously range in the field will decrease some, but unlike you, I don't think there is a 40 run difference from having a GGer in the field and an adequate defender at a position.
I also think Martin (Excellent pick-up last year) improves a little on last year, B.A. wise, Grandy drops off in power a little, but continues to improve vs. LH pitchers. Gardner, improves a bit and Swish can either have a career contract year or decline under the pressure of it being a contract year.
Pitching is another story. I am not declaring Pineda to be the second coming, but I think he shows normal progression this year and improves. CC will mentor him and help him with his change-up. Now can he do it under the bright lights is another story. Hughes is the key for me. He has reported to S.T. in top condition and it is expected that his velocity will return. If it does, then that can only mean good things for him and a spot on the rotation. If it isn't there, he will become part of the B.P. Kurado will do what needs to be done. He is back with Martin, which I think is a plus for him and NY. I expect 190 - 210 IP with and ERA about 4.25. Now is Nova just a supernova who will burn out or is he a rising star. Personally, I like the kids make-up and expect him to hit a couple of bumps in the road, but have a season similiar to last years. I have no worries about CC for 2012. Garcia is a perfect end of rotation starter or #6. I also expect to see some of the kids this year in various roles; again depending on overall health of rotation as season progresses.
Bullpen - I think it is the best in baseball. Robertson is everything you can want. I think Soriano had issues last year adjusting to a set-up role and then injuries hit. I think he has passed those issues and if healthy, will be the best 7th inning pitcher in baseball. Joba comes back in August and I like to signing of Aardsma (maybe even see him by Sept.). Wish they had a reliable LHer (Boone Logan scares me). No comment on Mo - simply the best. This bullpen can shorten games for opposing teams in a heartbeat.
Bench Depth - i think it is a strong blend of youth and veterans. They just inked Chavez to back-up A-Rod; Nunez hopefully will improve in the field and he does have a good bat. Back-up catcher (Cervelli or Romine). Hope it is Romine, far more upside for him.
One thing no one can predict is injuries. I have watched baseball too long to say that age is a primary factor in injuries, so the hopes of NY aging onto the DL list seems to be a bit more of a hope and prayer than anything else. But it is quite possible. You just cannot predict injuries.
Yankees will challenge Boston & Texas as the best offense in baseball. So this season, like every other season will depend on pitching.
Overall - above average team speed, average defensively with three potential GGers, strong power numbers. Team B.A. needs to improve from last year & I think it will. Only one ace, no defined #2, but rest of staff comprised of #3's and 4's. No dead fish at #5 (bye-bye AJ)
I like NY coaches although not the biggest fan of Girardi.
Prediction - 95 - 97 wins and battle for division title with Boston. Both teams go to the playoffs.