Really, Pete ... Doubie as a #3 a failure

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    Really, Pete ... Doubie as a #3 a failure

    Why Felix Doubront can't be the No. 3 starter in 2013

    Posted by Peter Abraham, Globe StaffSeptember 25, 2012 08:20 AM

    Felix Doubront pitched very well on Sunday for the Red Sox, allowing one run over seven innings against Baltimore and striking out 11.

    A 24-year-old lefthanded starter with swing-and-miss stuff is a nice commodity to have. But if Doubront is the No. 3 starter at the start of next season, the Red Sox will have failed this winter.

    The most important duty GM Ben Cherington has this winter is to improve the quality and depth of the rotation. Everything else is secondary.

     

     

    I have to wonder why the lesson(s) of acquiring high ticket players are lost to Pete Abraham?  I mean I love the intrigue and the excitement, but haven't we just gone through the disembowelment of the team so as to get rid of those of a certain ilk?

     

    Don't get me wrong, I loved A-Gon, kept hoping Crawford would shut up his many critics and for Josh to settle down and get on to the task as he had in th past .. and I trul miss Nick Putno.  Well, maybe not so much, sorry Nick.

    All that said, is PeteAb so enthralled with the former model that nothing is learned?

    I'm a big splash fan, but I thought we weren't going that way ... not enough to pick up two or more significant starters.  Wouldn't it cost us significantly similarly contracts or commitments to do this?

     

     
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  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from pumpsie-green. Show pumpsie-green's posts

    Re: Really, Pete ... Doubie as a #3 a failure

    Felix Doubront ERA this year: 4.91.

    Felix Doubront career ERA: 4.90

    This is not a #3 SP, not yet anyway. You gotta PROVE you can do that job first. I am not advocating going out and signing a FA SP for big bucks and lots of years for 2013 because we are most likely not making a real run for a ring next year. But Abraham is right: Dooby is not a #3 SP right now. He is more of a #5.

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from makonikyman. Show makonikyman's posts

    Re: Really, Pete ... Doubie as a #3 a failure

    In response to pumpsie-green's comment:

    Felix Doubront ERA this year: 4.91.

    Felix Doubront career ERA: 4.90

    This is not a #3 SP, not yet anyway. You gotta PROVE you can do that job first. I am not advocating going out and signing a FA SP for big bucks and lots of years for 2013 because we are most likely not making a real run for a ring next year. But Abraham is right: Dooby is not a #3 SP right now. He is more of a #5.




    Read the post I just posted . If you would have given up on Hurst, Lester, Ojeda, and Tudor in thier first 200 innings you would of made a BIG mistake. In the case of Ojeda and Tudor we did.

     
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  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from ThatWasMe. Show ThatWasMe's posts

    Re: Really, Pete ... Doubie as a #3 a failure

    In response to pike's comment:

    Pete Abraham and Alfredo Aceves are embedded Yankees. Globe reporters are not necessarily Red Sox fans. Pete used to run the Yankee blog named LaHoud. I take anything that Pete says with a grain of salt.




    Abraham used to have a yankee blog at Lohud too.

    pike you are so learned.

     
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    Re: Really, Pete ... Doubie as a #3 a failure

    In response to SinceYaz's comment:

    Why Felix Doubront can't be the No. 3 starter in 2013 Permalink|Comments () Posted by Peter Abraham, Globe Staff September 25, 2012 08:20 AM

    By Peter Abraham, Globe Staff

    Felix Doubront pitched very well on Sunday for the Red Sox, allowing one run over seven innings against Baltimore and striking out 11.

    A 24-year-old lefthanded starter with swing-and-miss stuff is a nice commodity to have. But if Doubront is the No. 3 starter at the start of next season, the Red Sox will have failed this winter.

    The most important duty GM Ben Cherington has this winter is to improve the quality and depth of the rotation. Everything else is secondary.

     

     

    I have to wonder why the lesson(s) of acquiring high ticket players are lost to Pete Abraham?  I mean I love the intrigue and the excitement, but haven't we just gone through the disembowelment of the team so as to get rid of those of a certain ilk?

     

    Don't get me wrong, I loved A-Gon, kept hoping Crawford would shut up his many critics and for Josh to settle down and get on to the task as he had in th past .. and I trul miss Nick Putno.  Well, maybe not so much, sorry Nick.

    All that said, is PeteAb so enthralled with the former model that nothing is learned?

    I'm a big splash fan, but I thought we weren't going that way ... not enough to pick up two or more significant starters.  Wouldn't it cost us significantly similarly contracts or commitments to do this?

     



    I'm not saying you overspend for a FA pitching, but right now, Abraham is right in that the Sox can't go into next year with Doubront as the No. 3. He has a 4.91 ERA and while he has shown flashes of potential, he also has been inconsistent and rarely goes deep into a game. He's averaging 5.5 innings per start. Right now, he's a No. 5 pitcher. 

    And Abraham is saying improve the quality and depth. He's not saying go overspend for big-time FA.

    He's young and has potential, so hopefully he makes a dramatic jump forward. If the Sox have a solid 1-2-3 and he makes that jump, that will be a tremendous help to the staff if he's pitching like a No. 2 or No. 3 in the 4 or 5 spot.

    There are always "ifs" in talking about pitching, but if Lackey bounces back from Tommy John and pitches like he did in California, and if Lester returns to form and Buchholz continues to pitch like he has in his last 18 starts (2.79 ERA) then Doubront will be fine as a back-of-the-rotation starter. 

    Right now, the Sox need to fill one spot in the rotation -- a No. 4 at least -- and add depth. Anyone higher would push Lackey to 4 and that will be fine. I know some want the Sox to get an "ace" but that IMO is overrated. The Tigers have an ace and a No. 2 and are still struggling to make the playoffs. To me, it's more important to have depth in the rotation. Lester and Buch might not be aces but if they pitch to their potential, they are ace-like. Even aces can have off years and need run support. Just look at Cliff Lee in Philly.

    Where ever he is in the rotation, Doubront needs to take a big step forward next year. Get his ERA down to around 4.00 to 4.20 at least, preferably better, and average better than six innings per start. 

    I do think Abraham is wrong when he says everything else is secondary. Despite the the pitching problems, the Sox need to solify the line and try to replace A-Gon's bat somehow. Maybe that happens with the development of one of the young players (Brentz) but assuming Ortiz and Middlebrooks are 2/3 of a 3-4-5, the Sox need one more bat and Ross in one of those roles isn't one of them. (I want Ross back but he's a No. 6 or No. 7 hitter).

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from pumpsie-green. Show pumpsie-green's posts

    Re: Really, Pete ... Doubie as a #3 a failure

    In response to makonikyman's comment:

    In response to pumpsie-green's comment:

    Felix Doubront ERA this year: 4.91.

    Felix Doubront career ERA: 4.90

    This is not a #3 SP, not yet anyway. You gotta PROVE you can do that job first. I am not advocating going out and signing a FA SP for big bucks and lots of years for 2013 because we are most likely not making a real run for a ring next year. But Abraham is right: Dooby is not a #3 SP right now. He is more of a #5.




    Read the post I just posted . If you would have given up on Hurst, Lester, Ojeda, and Tudor in thier first 200 innings you would of made a BIG mistake. In the case of Ojeda and Tudor we did.




    Where did I write that I am giving up on Doubront? All I said is that right now he is not a #3 SP because he has not PROVEN that he is that good. He should be retained on the team as a #5 SP who has the potential to improve.

     
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  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from royf19. Show royf19's posts

    Re: Really, Pete ... Doubie as a #3 a failure

    In response to pike's comment:

    Pete Abraham and Alfredo Aceves are embedded Yankees. Globe reporters are not necessarily Red Sox fans. Pete used to run the Yankee blog named LaHoud. I take anything that Pete says with a grain of salt.



    First off, reporters SHOULD NOT be fans.

    Second, he wrote on a Yankees blog because he had a job covering the Yankees. It was called LoHud (no LaHoud) and is part of the Journal-News, where he used to work. (The Journal-News "ran" it.) How stupid are you to think he shouldn't have a Yankees blog because he's covering the Yankees. Just like now, he has a blog on the Red Sox because he's covering the Sox.

    Taking anything Abraham writes "with a grain of salt" shows your own biases and ignorance. Just because he or any reporter writes something you disagree with, it doesn't make them a "fan" of another team, whether he turns out to be right or wrong. Twelve-year-old minds think like that.

    Rationale adults know that thinking people can have different opinions and viewpoints w/o having some kind of agenda.

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from makonikyman. Show makonikyman's posts

    Re: Really, Pete ... Doubie as a #3 a failure

    In response to pumpsie-green's comment:

    In response to makonikyman's comment:

    In response to pumpsie-green's comment:

    Felix Doubront ERA this year: 4.91.

    Felix Doubront career ERA: 4.90

    This is not a #3 SP, not yet anyway. You gotta PROVE you can do that job first. I am not advocating going out and signing a FA SP for big bucks and lots of years for 2013 because we are most likely not making a real run for a ring next year. But Abraham is right: Dooby is not a #3 SP right now. He is more of a #5.




    Read the post I just posted . If you would have given up on Hurst, Lester, Ojeda, and Tudor in thier first 200 innings you would of made a BIG mistake. In the case of Ojeda and Tudor we did.




    Where did I write that I am giving up on Doubront? All I said is that right now he is not a #3 SP because he has not PROVEN that he is that good. He should be retained on the team as a #5 SP who has the potential to improve.



    Your right pg...you didn't,t say that. My bad. But as of right now, Doubront is the numb 2 on this staff, and history say,s that he , not Lester, or Lackey has a better shot of being a 2 or 3 next yr. 

     
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    Re: Really, Pete ... Doubie as a #3 a failure


    Your right pg...you didn't,t say that. My bad. But as of right now, Doubront is the numb 2 on this staff, and history say,s that he , not Lester, or Lackey has a better shot of being a 2 or 3 next yr. 

    [/QUOTE]


    What history says that?  Lester's had years of excellence followed by his down year in 2012, while Doubrant's had years in the minors followed by a 2012 season similar to Lester's.  Lester has a far better chance of returning to his former excellence than Doubrant has of reaching that level.

     
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    Re: Really, Pete ... Doubie as a #3 a failure

    In response to royf19's comment:

    In response to SinceYaz's comment:

    Why Felix Doubront can't be the No. 3 starter in 2013 Permalink|Comments () Posted by Peter Abraham, Globe Staff September 25, 2012 08:20 AM

    By Peter Abraham, Globe Staff

    Felix Doubront pitched very well on Sunday for the Red Sox, allowing one run over seven innings against Baltimore and striking out 11.

    A 24-year-old lefthanded starter with swing-and-miss stuff is a nice commodity to have. But if Doubront is the No. 3 starter at the start of next season, the Red Sox will have failed this winter.

    The most important duty GM Ben Cherington has this winter is to improve the quality and depth of the rotation. Everything else is secondary.

     

     

    I have to wonder why the lesson(s) of acquiring high ticket players are lost to Pete Abraham?  I mean I love the intrigue and the excitement, but haven't we just gone through the disembowelment of the team so as to get rid of those of a certain ilk?

     

    Don't get me wrong, I loved A-Gon, kept hoping Crawford would shut up his many critics and for Josh to settle down and get on to the task as he had in th past .. and I trul miss Nick Putno.  Well, maybe not so much, sorry Nick.

    All that said, is PeteAb so enthralled with the former model that nothing is learned?

    I'm a big splash fan, but I thought we weren't going that way ... not enough to pick up two or more significant starters.  Wouldn't it cost us significantly similarly contracts or commitments to do this?

     



    I'm not saying you overspend for a FA pitching, but right now, Abraham is right in that the Sox can't go into next year with Doubront as the No. 3. He has a 4.91 ERA and while he has shown flashes of potential, he also has been inconsistent and rarely goes deep into a game. He's averaging 5.5 innings per start. Right now, he's a No. 5 pitcher. 

    And Abraham is saying improve the quality and depth. He's not saying go overspend for big-time FA.

    He's young and has potential, so hopefully he makes a dramatic jump forward. If the Sox have a solid 1-2-3 and he makes that jump, that will be a tremendous help to the staff if he's pitching like a No. 2 or No. 3 in the 4 or 5 spot.

    There are always "ifs" in talking about pitching, but if Lackey bounces back from Tommy John and pitches like he did in California, and if Lester returns to form and Buchholz continues to pitch like he has in his last 18 starts (2.79 ERA) then Doubront will be fine as a back-of-the-rotation starter. 

    Right now, the Sox need to fill one spot in the rotation -- a No. 4 at least -- and add depth. Anyone higher would push Lackey to 4 and that will be fine. I know some want the Sox to get an "ace" but that IMO is overrated. The Tigers have an ace and a No. 2 and are still struggling to make the playoffs. To me, it's more important to have depth in the rotation. Lester and Buch might not be aces but if they pitch to their potential, they are ace-like. Even aces can have off years and need run support. Just look at Cliff Lee in Philly.

    Where ever he is in the rotation, Doubront needs to take a big step forward next year. Get his ERA down to around 4.00 to 4.20 at least, preferably better, and average better than six innings per start. 

    I do think Abraham is wrong when he says everything else is secondary. Despite the the pitching problems, the Sox need to solify the line and try to replace A-Gon's bat somehow. Maybe that happens with the development of one of the young players (Brentz) but assuming Ortiz and Middlebrooks are 2/3 of a 3-4-5, the Sox need one more bat and Ross in one of those roles isn't one of them. (I want Ross back but he's a No. 6 or No. 7 hitter).



    Great post.  We clearly need a starter and therefore should look to obtain one.  That's not a knock on Dubront.  Dubie will be in the rotation next year and thats all that matters.  The debate over who is the #1, who is the #2, who is teh #3 is borderline meaningless.  The order of your rotation is very overrated.

     
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  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from susan250. Show susan250's posts

    Re: Really, Pete ... Doubie as a #3 a failure

    Maybe Lackey will have a great season and compete for the # 2 or # 3 starter.  It is definitely possible that this could happen.  At least I will remain optimistic about Lackey until the season begins. 

     
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    Re: Really, Pete ... Doubie as a #3 a failure

    In response to SonicsMonksLyresVicars' comment:


    Your right pg...you didn't,t say that. My bad. But as of right now, Doubront is the numb 2 on this staff, and history say,s that he , not Lester, or Lackey has a better shot of being a 2 or 3 next yr. 




    What history says that?  Lester's had years of excellence followed by his down year in 2012, while Doubrant's had years in the minors followed by a 2012 season similar to Lester's.  Lester has a far better chance of returning to his former excellence than Doubrant has of reaching that level.



    History of the game of baseball. Lester is an old 29 yrs old. A former power pitcher who needs now to learn how to rely more on hitting his spots rather than throwing it buy hitters. Lester's fb peaked in 2010 averaging 93.5 mph. Last yr it dipped to 92.6 and this yr it,s down to around 92 mph. He has been a 200 inn horse for a lot of yrs, he will not regain that velo IMO. Doubront is 24, has 3 to 5 yrs of peak velo ahead of him and has gained valuable experience this yr. Doubront, as of right now is a better pitcher than Lester and history, and the odds are that he will continue from here on out to be better. Don,t look in the past, people make that mistake all the time when evaluating players. Look at the facts to try and predict the future

 
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    Re: Really, Pete ... Doubie as a #3 a failure

    What we need is five very good starters.  Assigning 1-5 numbers to them is irrelevant and unnecessary.  Anyway , I do have hope that Doubront can be one of them. 

     
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    Re: Really, Pete ... Doubie as a #3 a failure

    In response to pike's comment:

    Doubrount's ERA is not that indicative of how great he pitched at times. I tend to believe that his ERA was skewed by a few terrible outings. He has a few things to tweak and he could easily be a #3. Remy and Eck are very high on him. For those who only follow boxscores that missed out on a lot.

     

    Kudos to Drewski for stating that determining who is #3, 4, or 5 is somewhat academic and not overly important.



    It all depends on how much you read into stats.  Some in here have no use for statistics.  His FIP is 4.37 and his xFIP is 3.90.  More importantly, he was 1-1 with a 2.52 v the EE, and 2-0 v TB with a 4.32.  14 QS in 28 starts.  He's fine as a #3.

     
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    Re: Really, Pete ... Doubie as a #3 a failure

    I didnt notice Lesters velocity go down this year from last. saw him a coupole times at fenway and he was hitting 96 on the gun and hanging around 93-94 most of the time in both games. His velocity chart says hes mostly around 92-94, hitting 96 every once in a while. which is the same as last year from how the chart looks... I would see what happens in 2013 before i pick up his option.

     

    http://www.fangraphs.com/pitchfxo.aspx?playerid=4930&position=P&pitch=FA

     
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    Re: Really, Pete ... Doubie as a #3 a failure

    Abraham usually makes sense and certainly does in this case.  If the Sox assume Doubront is the #3 starter for 2013, what was the point of dumping all that salary and Josh Beckett?  Doubront could well end up as the #3 starter next year, but assuming that lets Cherington off the hook for going after a good starter, however he might be ranked within the rotation.  Doubront had a decent first year, but still has an ERA of 4.91 and a WHIP of 1.46, to say nothing of his propensity to get way too emotional out on the mound.  In other words, he needs to mature.  And throw strikes. 

    As Abraham points out, the Sox have an ERA of over 5, ranked 12th of 14 team in the AL.  That's a rotten pitching staff, and most of it is because of the rotation.  If Doubront is #3 in 2013, that means Lackey and one of Morales, Tazawa, Aceves, Cook, etc are the number 4 and 5 starters. 

     

     
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    Re: Really, Pete ... Doubie as a #3 a failure

    #1 ........free agent

    #2 Lester/Clay

    #3 Lester/Clay

    #4 Lackey

    # 5 Doubront

    Wildcards?..........Tazawa and Aceves

     
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    Re: Really, Pete ... Doubie as a #3 a failure

    I agree, Yaz. Honestly, I think those who are expecting us to go out and get a #1 this winter are dreaming...The starting rotation does need major improvement, but aside from maybe getting a #3 or 4 type, I think that improvement will mostly come from within the organization.

    Rather than going out and overpaying a risky character like Greinke, I would much rather see a "bridge year" where we build from within and let some of the kids take on bigger roles (even if that means fewer wins for another year or two in the short term). Give Lester and Buch a chance to bounce back and hope Lackey comes back strong and Doubront builds on his first full season. Let Aceves, Morales, Zach Stewart, Rubby DLR, and whoever else compete for a spot; call up Webster and Barnes by the end of the season if they continue to excel. Consider trading Ellsbury if you can bring back some young pitching. All of these are better options than throwing money at whatever free agent happens to be the hottest on the market at the moment. That type of thinking got us into enough trouble.

     
  • You have chosen to ignore posts from pumpsie-green. Show pumpsie-green's posts

    Re: Really, Pete ... Doubie as a #3 a failure

    In response to Joebreidey's comment:

    In response to pike's comment:

    Doubrount's ERA is not that indicative of how great he pitched at times. I tend to believe that his ERA was skewed by a few terrible outings. He has a few things to tweak and he could easily be a #3. Remy and Eck are very high on him. For those who only follow boxscores that missed out on a lot.

     

    Kudos to Drewski for stating that determining who is #3, 4, or 5 is somewhat academic and not overly important.



    It all depends on how much you read into stats.  Some in here have no use for statistics.  His FIP is 4.37 and his xFIP is 3.90.  More importantly, he was 1-1 with a 2.52 v the EE, and 2-0 v TB with a 4.32.  14 QS in 28 starts.  He's fine as a #3.




    And who is that who has "no use for statistics" Breidey? I don't know anyone who is in that category. Just because some here don't favor the statistics that YOU prefer does not mean that they have no use for statistics.

    Doubront is a fine #5 SP right now, not a #3. Cherry picking how he performed against certain teams is meaningless. What is useful are these facts: his ERA this year was 4.91 with a WHIP of 1.461; his lifetime ERA is 4.90; his ERA+ this year was 88; and his lifetime ERA+ is 89. He is giving up too many runs per inning. That is what a pitcher is supposed to prevent. He can be YOUR #3 SP if you like, but not on my team. He is not good enough. I would not settle for him in that spot.

     
  • You have chosen to ignore posts from pumpsie-green. Show pumpsie-green's posts

    Re: Really, Pete ... Doubie as a #3 a failure

    In response to dgalehouse's comment:

    What we need is five very good starters.  Assigning 1-5 numbers to them is irrelevant and unnecessary.  Anyway , I do have hope that Doubront can be one of them. 



    We really need a true ace IMO. Someone who reliably will give you an excellent outing to prevent long losing streaks, someone who can match up against the best pitcher on contending teams. We don't have one right now and are unlikely to get one next year either.

     
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