Red Sox 2013 Offense

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Red Sox 2013 Offense

    My 2014 (edit)  Red Sox Offensive Projections (P As)  BA  HR  RBI   OBP/SLG/OPS:

    Catcher

    AJ Pierzynski:  They guy is 37, but he has over 497 PAs for 11 straight seasons and 128+ games in 12 straight! Not only that, he has been within 0.50 of his career .750 OPS in in all but 3 of those 12 seasons (.824 in 2003, .688 in 2010 and his career high of .827 just 2 years ago in 2012). He had his career high in HRs (27) at 35 and his 3rd highest (17) last year. I’m not projecting great offense from AJ, but he should come pretty close to what Salty gave us last year (.804 OPS). I’m going with…

    (500)  .275  18  80  .315/.435/.750

    David Ross: Ross is also 37, but does not have the normal wear and tear of a full time career catcher as he has been a back-up all but maybe one season. Some of you may not know that he once posted a .932 OPS with 21 HRs in 247 Abs (2006). He had 38 HRs in 644 Pas from 2006 to 2007. His career OPS of .764 is very good for a catcher, but his health issues last year helped cause his worst OPS (.681) since 2007. I’m going with a relatively healthy season and…

    (150)  .230  7  20  .320/.420/.740

     

    First Base

    Mike Napoli: Mike’s health was a big issue this time last year, but the doctors now say the hip degeneration has been halted. Mike was as streaky as ever, but as usual, he ended up with very decent numbers. I’m not a fan that bashed guys for being streaky. Many times a hot streaky hitter can carry a team almost single-handedly. Mike is not only streaky within a season, he has also been known to yo-yo from one season to the next. An interesting career trend has developed: every third season, Mike has a big year, and guess what? This is year three! ( .815> .794> .960>  .842  .784> 1.046>  .812>  .842) I’m not into superstitions, but I am projecting a better season for Napoli…

      (600)  .275  28  110  .370/.490/.860

     

    Mike Carp: Mike gave us some great numbers off the bench last year, but I’m not even sure he will still be on this team for the full season. Injuries may play a role, but if he stays here, I’m going with…

    (250)  .280  8  40  .340/.440/.780

     

    Second Base

    Dustin Pedroia: Dustin is now two full seasons removed from back-to-back .860+ OPS years and hasn’t even cracked .800 since 2011. Injuries have played a role in his power drop, but it was nice to see him return to his OBP norm last year after his career .347 low in 2012. I’m expecting a better year from Pedey as he turns 31 in August… 

    .300  15  90  .380/.445/.825

     

    Third Base

    Will Middlebrooks: Certainly, Middy is the hardest Sox player to project. I’m going to guess he comes out somewhere between the 2012 numbers and 2013 numbers. Here it goes…

    (500)  .245  23  85  .285/.465/.750.

    Jonathan Herrera: I’m liking him a whole lot better than I did Ciriaco, but on offense I’m not expecting much…

    (250)  .270  2  25  .330/.350/.675  

    (Note: I do expect to see Cecchini this year, but I am assuming overall good health for these proections.)

     

    Short Stop

    Xander Bogaerts: I’m expecting better offense from Bogey than Drew gave us but am not going to go all Freddie Lynn on you guys…

    (600)  .285  15  80   .375/.445/.820

     

    Left Field

    Daniel Nava: Last year I projected very good numbers from our LF platoon, assuming nava would start vs almost all RHPs and Gomes would continue doing great vs the LH’d starters, but with the injuries, Carp and others played a lot of LF. I’m hoping that Nava can continue his strong 2013 numbers, but I’m projecting a slight downturn…

    (475)  .290  12  70  .380/.440/.820

    Jonny Gomes: I expect Gomes to return to greatness vs LHPs. He had been one of the leagues best hitters vs lefties until 2013. Here it goes… 

    (375)  .275  15  65  .350/.450/.800

     

    Center Field

    Grady Sizemore: Okay, maybe he’s harder to project than Middy, but here it goes…(Actually a higher OPS than Jacoby’s 2013 OPS)

     

    (400)  .260  5  55  .350/.440/.790 

    Jackie Bradley Jr.: I think JBJ learned a lot. He still has adjustments to make, but I have faith he will someday be a plus offensive player, but for 2014, I expect…

    (350)  .250  7  35  .335/.390/..725

     

     Right Field

    Shane Victorino: It’s all about health with Shane. He’s 33 this year. He proved me wrong last year, but I’m giving him the benefit of doubt this year…

    (550) .285  15  65  .345/.445/.790

     

    Designated Hitter

    David Ortiz: The ageless wonder keeps going  strong. If you count the playoffs last year, Papi hit 35 HRs and knocked in 116 runs in 586 Pas!  I’m expecting a slight drop-off and hoping he stays well enough to play nearly every game. Papi in 2014.…

    (600)  27  100  .390/.530/.920

     

    Overall: The Red Sox led the league in runs scored last year by 57 runs. I would not be surprised, if we do it again, but it won’t be by 50. I’m guessing top 3 at worst. Yes, the loss of Jacoby will hurt, and we may not even break even with Salty and Drew’s lost offense, but I think Bogey, Middy and Pedey will give us a boost, and Gomes and Napoli have better seasons as well.

     

     

    I’m willing to take some slack this October, as I am sure to be wrong often here, but if you are going to bash me hard, then at least post your numbers before day 1.

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from BMav. Show BMav's posts

    Re: Red Sox 2013 Offense

     

    Good predictions. My biggest disagreements are with Papi being too high and Middlebrooks being to low. Both by about 50 points.

     

    I know I will get one number right though.....2014:)

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from kimsaysthis. Show kimsaysthis's posts

    Re: Red Sox 2013 Offense

    In response to BMav's comment:
    [QUOTE]

     

    Good predictions. My biggest disagreements are with Papi being too high and Middlebrooks being to low. Both by about 50 points.

     

    I know I will get one number right though.....2014:)

    [/QUOTE]

    I think he was probably doing his research using 2013 numbers, so he mistakenly wrote that year in the title. Just a guess.

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from kimsaysthis. Show kimsaysthis's posts

    Re: Red Sox 2013 Offense

    If you can't change the title, Moon, maybe just cut and paste the OP into a new thread since you may be referencing this in the future.

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from MadMc1944. Show MadMc1944's posts

    Re: Red Sox 2013 Offense

    My only real concern is on the middle infield--Pedroia and Xander. We really don't have an answer unless you rush Betts or Holt magically tears the cover off the ball.

    At SS Herrera is the only answer unless you rush Marrero or put in a call to Drew.

    The other positions have people that can step in only being missed minimally.

    Carp/ Nava at 1 B.  3B Cecchini would do fine( Boggs II)

    Gomes in LF--Nava in CF, Nava in RF.

    Catching not a big issue--Vazquez/ Lavarnway---

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from Ice-Cream. Show Ice-Cream's posts

    Re: Red Sox 2013 Offense

    Another fantastic post by moonslav59!!!   Laughing

    The AL East is going to be even more competitive this year.  I can't wait till Monday's opener!!!

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Red Sox 2013 Offense

    In response to kimsaysthis' comment:
    [QUOTE]

    If you can't change the title, Moon, maybe just cut and paste the OP into a new thread since you may be referencing this in the future.

    [/QUOTE]

    Thanks!

     
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