Red Sox don't have a true number 1 starter-time to get one.

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from ADG. Show ADG's posts

    Re: Red Sox don't have a true number 1 starter-time to get one.

    In Response to Re: Red Sox don't have a true number 1 starter-time to get one.:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Red Sox don't have a true number 1 starter-time to get one. : Yeah let's invest millions on another 'so-called' #1 starter from another organization...I love that Darvish is mentioned too...a totally unproven player is now a #1 starter in the major leagues? When Lester is on his game he is a better pitcher than Wilson. No way the SOx outbid the Yankees for the services of Sabathia...so put that to bed. Felix Hernandez is not available unless you sell the farm to get him, that means a combination major and minor leaguers to Seattle to wow them into a trade...I say JUST SAY NO. If the Sox could work the compensation package to include a trade for Zambrano for Theo and Lackey I'd give that a shot. Zambrano can pitch, he just needs to be given sedatives or something.  
    Posted by Soxdog67[/QUOTE]

    Yeah, a big splash with Yu Darvish just like the one they made with Daisuke.
     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from ADG. Show ADG's posts

    Re: Red Sox don't have a true number 1 starter-time to get one.

    In Response to Re: Red Sox don't have a true number 1 starter-time to get one.:
    [QUOTE]The posting fee is negligble when you think of it as an investment into a new market. Japan loves baseball and just as we did with DiceK, we should invest in their star player. How many DiceK BoSox shirts and Sox caps were sold? Do you think the Red Sox financially took a hit for signing DiceK or continued to grow the brand and flourish? I bet Henry was happy he signed Dice...Owning a baseball team is a business and Darvish, as was Dice, is Henry's ticket to continually take advantage of an untapped market. 50 mil, 60 mil, 70 mil whatever it takes. How much much do you think Darvish would return in 6 years. I'm guessing more than the posting fee and then some. He's a younger, more valuable opportunity than Paul Maholm or Mark Buehrle! Heck, he's more talented than both too! And they will make the same amount per year except you can keep Darvish for 6 years
    Posted by TitleTown11[/QUOTE]

    So after the great splash that DiceK made, the Sox will want to do the same with Darvish? He won't return anything to the Red Sox because the Red Sox (and it's fans) have history with Daisuke.
     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from slomag. Show slomag's posts

    Re: Red Sox don't have a true number 1 starter-time to get one.

    Henry knows better than anybody how much return he can expect to get on a Japanese phenom.  His posting bid will bear that out - my guess is it's more than any of us know.  There are merchandising rules that prevent the Sox from profiting directly on Darvish sales outside of New England, but the Sox ownership also owns NESN, which means they profit indirectly from international viewership through the MLB network.  That makes them uniquely positioned to profit from a Darvish signing.  Even if he is a total bust, the royalties from year one will probably surpass the posting fee.  And if Darvish is a huge bust, he's still 10M less on the luxury tax than a CJ Wilson bust of if Sabathia's body-by-cocoa-puffs fails to last the next 7 years.  Everthing's a gamble, but this is a good one.  A very good one.


     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from RSF4Life234. Show RSF4Life234's posts

    Re: Red Sox don't have a true number 1 starter-time to get one.

    In Response to Red Sox don't have a true number 1 starter-time to get one.:
    [QUOTE]The 2012 Beckett is no longer a number 1; he doesn't have that high 90's fastball anymore and after last season his work ethic is questionable. Lester and Buchholz haven't proven to be number 1 elite starters either. And I don't want to see the Sox just add low-risk options like  Edwin Jackson , Rich Harden , Joel Pineiro and Jason Marquis. I want the Sox to go after the big fish; go after Yu Darvish, C.J. Wilson, CC Sabathia or trade for Felix Hernandez.
    Posted by 2004Idiots[/QUOTE]

    How is beckett not a number 1 starter, he had an era below 3 in a hitters park in the AL East?
     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from bald-predictions. Show bald-predictions's posts

    Re: Red Sox don't have a true number 1 starter-time to get one.

    I read earlier in the year that Darvish hadalready begun pitching on four days' rest. The speculation is, of course, that he's getting ready to pitch in the major leagues next year.
    Of course, there are no guarantees with Darvish. And, of course, he'd have to make adjustments. But, I agree Darvish is significantly different than those other guys.
    Japan is, still, a rather "closed" society. There's very little immigration and very little in the way of mixed-race people. However, Darvish has been dealing with his being "different" his entire life, as he's of Persian/Japanese heritage. This kind of experience might help to make him better prepared for life in the US.
    Darvish has a classic major league pitcher's build. 6'5" and 210 pounds (he's gotten bigger over the past two years). Lithe and strong. Dice-K and Hideo Nomo, the only guys at all comparable to Darvish in terms of their stats, were both a bit shorter than Darvish, with somewhat "softer" frames. Hideki Irabu was tall at 6'4, but a bit on the flabby side. This might not mean a whole lot, but, then again, it might. 
    Another point: Darvish's track record sizes up really, really well against these other guys. Nomo had been extraordinary in Japan during those first 5 or 6 seasons. But he'd thrown a TON of innings. Dice-K had been used somewhat more conservatively, and put up some great numbers, but he wasn't as dominant as Darvish has been. By the end of this year, Darvish will have posted ERAs under 2.00 for five seasons in a row. Neither Dice-K, nor Nomo, ever did that even once. Even if you think of Japanese baseball as something like AAAA ball here in the US, five thoroughly dominating seasons in a row ought to make you stand up and take some real notice. As for Irabu and (uggh) Igawa, neither of them were ever really of the same caliber as Nomo and Dice-K.
    Finally, Darvish is a mega-star in Japan, a mega-star. He's used to fame, publicity, and all that goes with it. I can't compare his experience in this regard to any of the other guys, but I think it's a safe bet to assume he'd be able to handle the spotlight in the US. After all, Ichiro's done just fine.
    Bottom line: he'd be a great "get.
     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from TitleTown11. Show TitleTown11's posts

    Re: Red Sox don't have a true number 1 starter-time to get one.

    Now somebody else understands...way to go slomag!

    As for you ADG, you do not, just as I do not, know what Darvish will give this team if we signed him. Daisuke did not live up to expectations. Well maybe that's our fault for overhyping him, but he made less than $10 M per and had one okay and one good season before injuries set him off track. 49-30 with a 4.25? Not the best, agreed - but not the worst.

    Daisuke and Darvish are different personalities and different pitching styles. So if you were going to project who would succeed, who would you pick.

    DiceK - pitched an outrageous amount of innings in his youth, does not possess a pitchers frame, didn't speak the same language as his pitching coach, and is notorious for poor command and being a nibbler (driving up his pitch count)

    Darvish - younger, pitched a conservative amount of innings and has only surpassed 200 twice - 6'5" 220 - father educated in Mass and has understanding of American sports culture - speaks English - aggressive attacking pitcher (276 K, 36 BB this season)

    I know they are both from Japan and since Dice K didn't pan out people automatically assume he won't either. Maybe he won't, but maybe he will. I think he will because he is a different style pitcher, a more talented pitcher, and has a personality more fitting for Boston. I'd rather see the Sox take the gamble on a player who's hungry to prove himself in MLB than handing out another fat contract to a 30+ year old pitcher.


     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from TitleTown11. Show TitleTown11's posts

    Re: Red Sox don't have a true number 1 starter-time to get one.

    Bald...you're on board, too. Another person who understands why this is a better move than Zambrano, Maholm, Buehrle, Jackson, Wilson etc
     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from redsoxpride34. Show redsoxpride34's posts

    Re: Red Sox don't have a true number 1 starter-time to get one.

    I have been thinking about the sox pitching situation for some time now and based on the options that will be available. I think Yu Darvish is the best option hands down. I would not go anywhere near cj wilson or sabathia. As good as cc is, he is 32 yrs old, overweight, and wants a ton of money. And i very much doubt the yankees will let him go. As much as i would love to get him, i think the chances felix hernandez gets dealt are slim to none. That leaves us with Yu Darvish. He is young (25) and has been unreal in japan. He is a start over there. He pitched great in the world baseball classic, and has a pitchers frame. Yes there some uncertainty that comes with him, but i think he is well worth the risk. I know people will bring up dice k and how he ended up being a bad signing but there is very little to compare between him and darvish. Darvish is 6"5 210 lbs and throws strikes. He speaks english and has had far more success thank dice k in japan. As for the cost, its hard to say how much he will go for but it should be pretty close to what dice k cost the sox. Some people say it will be more, some say it will be less because teams will be gun shy because of what happened with dice k. Would john henry pay big money for anotther japanese pitcher? I think in this case yes. I guarantee that he made far more off dice k than he paid for him. He knows the star power that comes with darvish and i doubt he will hesitate to go after him. Forget guys like buerhle, edwin jackson etc. We need a front of the rotation guy and darvish could definetly be it.
     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from redsoxlaxer12. Show redsoxlaxer12's posts

    Re: Red Sox don't have a true number 1 starter-time to get one.

    Uhm yea they do...His names Jon Lester......ever heard of him

    STOP OVER REACTING!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from TitleTown11. Show TitleTown11's posts

    Re: Red Sox don't have a true number 1 starter-time to get one.

    RSP34!
     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from scorieger. Show scorieger's posts

    Re: Red Sox don't have a true number 1 starter-time to get one.

    CJ is not a number one, Darvish is ridiculously unproven, the Yanks will never let CC walk (which may be great for us as he eats his aging body into bad knees and a bad back), and it's just crappy for baseball in genereal if teams let their aces go due to payroll concerns.  A supplental starter is what we'll get, and we'll need Lester and Buch to anchor the team.  I do hope that Lackey just goes away.  Hell, if you can guarantee me that $10 of those Fenway bricks goes toward getting rid of Lackey, I'll buy three of 'em.
     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from bald-predictions. Show bald-predictions's posts

    Re: Red Sox don't have a true number 1 starter-time to get one.

    Yu Darvish ERA vs. Japanese League Average ERA

    2006: 2.89 vs 3.62
    2007: 1.82 vs 3.57
    2008: 1.88 vs 3.90
    2009: 1.73 vs 4.03
    2010: 1.78 vs 3.94

    This is not just "some Japanese pitcher." Just look at those raw numbers alone. When you are that exponentially better than your peers in any league, that is insane. Numbers like that are like when a pitcher is leaps and bounds better than his competition at the college level or at the minor league level. We can say "well he is unproven in the Majors" but at the same time you just know know wow this kid has dominated every single opponent he has ever faced and he is scary good, has crazy talent and has the perfect pitchers build.

    There will not be a pitcher on the free market in the next 2 off seasons who is as talented as this guy, plain and simple.

    Yu "dirty rat" Darvish should be ours.
     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from soxforlife22. Show soxforlife22's posts

    Re: Red Sox don't have a true number 1 starter-time to get one.

    Also remember that this is the kind of big signing that Henry might be looking for to bring Boston fans back after a terrible September. This along with the money he would make off of Darvish, and the potential that Darvish is an effective pitcher makes this deal look good from Henry's perspective, and if Darvidh id the real deal, us fans should be excited about Darvish too.
     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from brdbreu. Show brdbreu's posts

    Re: Red Sox don't have a true number 1 starter-time to get one.

    In Response to Re: Red Sox don't have a true number 1 starter-time to get one.:
    [QUOTE]I'm not from Tokyo - I'm just looking at the options A) CC Sabathia - 32 YO - Likely contract...7 Yr-$175M - Verdict...Pass, too much B) CJ Wilson - 32 YO - Likely contract...5 Yr-$100M - Verdict...Pass, too much C) Edwin Jackson - 28 YO -  Likely contract...3-4 Yr-$36-40M - Verdict...Not low risk at all, it will take big bucks and multi year commitment to get him D) Buehrle - 34? YO -  Likely contract...2 Yr-$14M - Verdict...Nope E) Oswalt - 34? YO -  Likely contract...2 Yr-$14M - Verdict...AL pitcher? Wang, Garcia, Olsen, Pineiro, Dempster available? Ha...No. Wainwright and JJ have career threatening injuries and Youk won't get those trades done. Oh wait... F) Darvish - 24 YO -  Likely contract...6 Yr-$66M - Verdict...What do I care if Henry has to pay extra money to buy his negotiating rights? He'll make that back in 1 day from overseas marketing. Young, talented, and cheaper than the other alternatives. Ding Ding Ding, we have our pitcher.  
    Posted by TitleTown11[/QUOTE]

    title,

    some know what theyre talkin about some dont.
    thanks for sharing some good stats.
    youre onto something, but is lucchino cherrington also? or will they paint all of japan with a dice-k brush?

    like your thinking on garza too, especially given theo and cubs want to take executives with him. dont know if id say garza or else. but 2 equally "crazy" choices is what id leave them with. let them choose or walk.
     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from brdbreu. Show brdbreu's posts

    Re: Red Sox don't have a true number 1 starter-time to get one.

    In Response to Re: Red Sox don't have a true number 1 starter-time to get one.:
    [QUOTE]Henry knows better than anybody how much return he can expect to get on a Japanese phenom.  His posting bid will bear that out - my guess is it's more than any of us know.  There are merchandising rules that prevent the Sox from profiting directly on Darvish sales outside of New England, but the Sox ownership also owns NESN, which means they profit indirectly from international viewership through the MLB network.  That makes them uniquely positioned to profit from a Darvish signing.  Even if he is a total bust, the royalties from year one will probably surpass the posting fee.  And if Darvish is a huge bust, he's still 10M less on the luxury tax than a CJ Wilson bust of if Sabathia's body-by-cocoa-puffs fails to last the next 7 years.  Everthing's a gamble, but this is a good one.  A very good one.
    Posted by slomag[/QUOTE]


    nice points
     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from brdbreu. Show brdbreu's posts

    Re: Red Sox don't have a true number 1 starter-time to get one.

    In Response to Re: Red Sox don't have a true number 1 starter-time to get one.:
    [QUOTE]I have been thinking about the sox pitching situation for some time now and based on the options that will be available. I think Yu Darvish is the best option hands down. I would not go anywhere near cj wilson or sabathia. As good as cc is, he is 32 yrs old, overweight, and wants a ton of money. And i very much doubt the yankees will let him go. As much as i would love to get him, i think the chances felix hernandez gets dealt are slim to none. That leaves us with Yu Darvish. He is young (25) and has been unreal in japan. He is a start over there. He pitched great in the world baseball classic, and has a pitchers frame. Yes there some uncertainty that comes with him, but i think he is well worth the risk. I know people will bring up dice k and how he ended up being a bad signing but there is very little to compare between him and darvish. Darvish is 6"5 210 lbs and throws strikes. He speaks english and has had far more success thank dice k in japan. As for the cost, its hard to say how much he will go for but it should be pretty close to what dice k cost the sox. Some people say it will be more, some say it will be less because teams will be gun shy because of what happened with dice k. Would john henry pay big money for anotther japanese pitcher? I think in this case yes. I guarantee that he made far more off dice k than he paid for him. He knows the star power that comes with darvish and i doubt he will hesitate to go after him. Forget guys like buerhle, edwin jackson etc. We need a front of the rotation guy and darvish could definetly be it.
    Posted by redsoxpride34[/QUOTE]


    hell yeah.
    make it so.
     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from GoUconn13. Show GoUconn13's posts

    Re: Red Sox don't have a true number 1 starter-time to get one.

    If you read more about him from pitching in the Japan league to Olympic to World Baseball Classic, he struggled during the 2008 Olympic where USA/Cuba/others participated.  Since after the Olympic, he pitched most of the time in Japan.  He didnt pitched much during the 2009 world baseball classic.  

    Worst part that he already logged in over 1000 innings.   That is average of 200 plus innings in the past 6 years. 

    If Boston ever want him, just sign him two years contract like they did it with Tawanza!!
     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from brdbreu. Show brdbreu's posts

    Re: Red Sox don't have a true number 1 starter-time to get one.

    In Response to Re: Red Sox don't have a true number 1 starter-time to get one.:
    [QUOTE]Also remember that this is the kind of big signing that Henry might be looking for to bring Boston fans back after a terrible September. This along with the money he would make off of Darvish, and the potential that Darvish is an effective pitcher makes this deal look good from Henry's perspective, and if Darvidh id the real deal, us fans should be excited about Darvish too.
    Posted by soxforlife22[/QUOTE]

    does lucky and henry read the board?
    does anyone know if they are interested/looking at this?
    would he be wiling to outbid the yankees?
     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from TitleTown11. Show TitleTown11's posts

    Re: Red Sox don't have a true number 1 starter-time to get one.

    Thanks Brdbreu...my thoughts on the Darvish and Garza topics are just that. My thoughts and I would love to see them happen, but its always interested to see what others think to. 

    UConn13...I graduated from there and would expect more from you. If what you say is true that Darvish has pitched 1000 professional innings in 6 seasons....
    1000/6 = 166.67 IP per year

    2005 - 94
    2006 - 149
    2007 - 207
    2008 - 201
    2009 - 182
    2010 - 202

    Seems reasonable to me...not like some Japanese pitchers who are throwing 200 pitch bullpen sessions, 150 pitch starts, and 275 IP per year


     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from expitch. Show expitch's posts

    Re: Red Sox don't have a true number 1 starter-time to get one.

    No one needs to resort to the "Chicken and Beer dialogue" in order to explain why Lester and Beckett had a foul odor in September. Nor does reference to xFIP in any way fumigate the situation. Neither one of those guys could make the pitch or pitches or get the out when it was most needed, or stay the course -- if we want to consult what actually happens on the field of play instead of running to stats that are a long way from establishing their credibility.
    That said, until we know more, the relationship of the Clubhouse Follies and conditioning to performance cannot be dismissed out of hand.
    Pippa's buns is big on "pragmatism." Bottom line is that Beckett and Lester stunk up the joint. 
     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from GoUconn13. Show GoUconn13's posts

    Re: Red Sox don't have a true number 1 starter-time to get one.

    In Response to Re: Red Sox don't have a true number 1 starter-time to get one.:
    [QUOTE]Thanks Brdbreu...my thoughts on the Darvish and Garza topics are just that. My thoughts and I would love to see them happen, but its always interested to see what others think to.  UConn13...I graduated from there and would expect more from you. If what you say is true that Darvish has pitched 1000 professional innings in 6 seasons.... 1000/6 = 166.67 IP per year 2005 - 94 2006 - 149 2007 - 207 2008 - 201 2009 - 182 2010 - 202 Seems reasonable to me...not like some Japanese pitchers who are throwing 200 pitch bullpen sessions, 150 pitch starts, and 275 IP per year
    Posted by TitleTown11[/QUOTE]

    Yes it is alot especially he is only 25 years old.  Also he had 40 completed games.  Therefore he threw alot of pitches for the entire year.  If you look at Cliff Lee, Beckett, Holladay, Wilson, etc. when they were young, they finally started throwing over 200 innings when they reach age 24 to 26.  Meaning at age 20 to 23, most of them just threw 15 innings to 100 to 150 innings until they are ready to go to 200 innings.  That is approximately 3 to 5 years difference between them and Darvish.  Dice K had a simular stats as Darvish where Dice K had threw simular innings in his four to five years prior to coming to Boston.  Same with Wang of the Yankees.  Suddenly they are both busted pitchers.  If you want Darvish, like I said, sign him two years contract, but no more than 8 millions dollars a year.  But I know for sure he'll demand a big fat contract.  Probably larger than Dice K!!
     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from traven. Show traven's posts

    Re: Red Sox don't have a true number 1 starter-time to get one.

    After watching the Japanese star pitchers making the transition to MLB - I would not pin my hopes too high on any of them.  There hasn't been a single one make the grade to superstar pitcher in my opinion.  The flip side is that since it is not my money - go ahead and try another long term Dice-K like contract.  Spend some more money on FAs and trade off more - are there really any more - farm system prospects.  We are becoming more and more like the Yanks used to be and they are becoming more like we used to be...they have an outstanding farm system and have not chased down any big free agents of late.  The Sox on the other hand have traded away the farm and pursued high-priced FA's and failed to do anything positive in the past 3 years. 

    Hopefully new manager and new GM make a difference in the direction this club is headed.
     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from TitleTown11. Show TitleTown11's posts

    Re: Red Sox don't have a true number 1 starter-time to get one.

    In Response to Re: Red Sox don't have a true number 1 starter-time to get one.:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: Red Sox don't have a true number 1 starter-time to get one. : Yes it is alot especially he is only 25 years old.  Also he had 40 completed games.  Therefore he threw alot of pitches for the entire year.  If you look at Cliff Lee, Beckett, Holladay, Wilson, etc. when they were young, they finally started throwing over 200 innings when they reach age 24 to 26.  Meaning at age 20 to 23, most of them just threw 15 innings to 100 to 150 innings until they are ready to go to 200 innings.  That is approximately 3 to 5 years difference between them and Darvish.  Dice K had a simular stats as Darvish where Dice K had threw simular innings in his four to five years prior to coming to Boston.  Same with Wang of the Yankees.  Suddenly they are both busted pitchers.  If you want Darvish, like I said, sign him two years contract, but no more than 8 millions dollars a year.  But I know for sure he'll demand a big fat contract.  Probably larger than Dice K!!
    Posted by GoUconn13[/QUOTE]

    Halladay between ages 18-25 threw approximately 635 IP in the minors and an additional 840 in the pros with two seasons over 200 IP. Max 266 at age 25.

    Darvish has less total innings than Halladay through those ages. Max 232 at age 24/25.

    So if your greater point is that too many pitches at a young age derails a career, then Halladay doesn't make your arguement, he breaks it.

    My arguement is the lack of better alternatives. Okay so you think Darvish is too big of a risk - fine - whos a better choice? Darvish (excluding the posting fee) will receive a similar per year salary to Buehrle and Jackson, less than Wilson and Sabathia, and is significantly younger. I don't see how adding a young pitcher to a long term reasonably priced contract is a bad thing.

    So he doesn't have experience in MLB....neither do minor leaguers. But each year new rookies emerge, this season he will be a rookie. He dominated his competition moreso than DiceK did and now he's ready for tougher competition.

     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from hill55. Show hill55's posts

    Re: Red Sox don't have a true number 1 starter-time to get one.

    Yu Darvish is about four months younger than Felix Hernandez ... for whatever that's worth.
     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from antiqueman1. Show antiqueman1's posts

    Re: Red Sox don't have a true number 1 starter-time to get one.

    Sox don't need to spend outrageous money for a so called number one. Look where is got the phillies and the yankees and even detroit. The Sox just need to rid themselves of the dead weight and give some kids a chance to pitch and get better along with Lester, Buch, Aceves, perhaps Bard(as starter) and Beckett if he is not traded.
     

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