Red Sox don't have a true number 1 starter-time to get one.

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from GoUconn13. Show GoUconn13's posts

    Re: Red Sox don't have a true number 1 starter-time to get one.

    In Response to Re: Red Sox don't have a true number 1 starter-time to get one.:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: Red Sox don't have a true number 1 starter-time to get one. : Halladay between ages 18-25 threw approximately 635 IP in the minors and an additional 840 in the pros with two seasons over 200 IP. Max 266 at age 25. Darvish has less total innings than Halladay through those ages. Max 232 at age 24/25. So if your greater point is that too many pitches at a young age derails a career, then Halladay doesn't make your arguement, he breaks it. My arguement is the lack of better alternatives. Okay so you think Darvish is too big of a risk - fine - whos a better choice? Darvish (excluding the posting fee) will receive a similar per year salary to Buehrle and Jackson, less than Wilson and Sabathia, and is significantly younger. I don't see how adding a young pitcher to a long term reasonably priced contract is a bad thing. So he doesn't have experience in MLB....neither do minor leaguers. But each year new rookies emerge, this season he will be a rookie. He dominated his competition moreso than DiceK did and now he's ready for tougher competition.
    Posted by TitleTown11[/QUOTE]

    First of all, I disagree with your research.

    Holladay threw exactly 1209 innings from minor league to major league by the time he reached age 25.  Then he pitched 266 innings at age 26. Took him 8 years to reach 1209 innings at the same time he pitched more games per year than Darvish.  Darvish pitched 1268 innings from at age 18 (same time as Holladay started in the minor league) to today at age 25.  Took him 7 years to do it (one less year than Holladay).  Plus Darvish pitched less game per year than Holladay which mean he go deep every game since he pitched in the Japan League.  Not only he pitch in Japan league, he have participated other baseball activities such as he pitched in the world baseball classic, Olympic, etc.  He is a little bit over-worked than Hollady.  

    By the way, Darvish is not the best pitcher for the 2011 season.  I see that there is like at least two pitchers or more have better stats than Darvish for this 2011 season.  Also if you try looking in Japanese baseball stats for the 2011 season.  There are like 25 or more starting pitchers have an ERA under 3.00 compare to MLB only have 16 pitchers that have under 3.00 ERA.  Meaning Japan is a much weaker hitting league than the MLB!!  And it is much easier to pitch in the Japan League than MLB.

    Read the next post!

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from GoUconn13. Show GoUconn13's posts

    Re: Red Sox don't have a true number 1 starter-time to get one.

    First of all, I disagree with your research.

    Holladay pitched over 1200 innings from age 18-25 before pitching 266 innings at age 26.  Took him 8 years to pitched 1200 innings.  Darvish pitched over 1200 innings from age 18-24 (including this 2011 season).  That is one year difference between these two plus Holladay pitched more game per year than Darvish.  Holladay only have like less than 20 completed games in his first 8 years of his career compare to Darvish already have over 40 completed games.  So therefore Darvish overworked at every game in most of his career.

    Now if you look at the stats for Japanese League, Darvish isnt the "MLB Cy Young" pitcher this year.  There are probably two or maybe three pitchers that have better stats than Darvish.  Plus there are over 25 starting pitchers that have under 3.00 ERA compare to only like 16 MLB starting pitchers that have under 3.00 ERA (mostly from NL).  So therefore the hitters in Japan are much weaker than the MLB's!!!!

    Read the next post that I will copied and pasted from NESN
     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from GoUconn13. Show GoUconn13's posts

    Re: Red Sox don't have a true number 1 starter-time to get one.

    Yu Darvish Will Be Hot Commodity During MLB Offseason, But Red Sox Would Be Wise to Steer Clear of Japanese Pitcher

    Yu DarvishStop me if you've heard this before. A highly regarded Japanese pitcher who's pitched in the Olympics and the World Baseball Classic could be joining the majors during the offseason, bringing with him a hefty price tag -- with a lot of the money going to the pitcher's current team as a posting fee.

    No, this isn't the 2006-07 offseason all over again. But we could be in for an eerily similar scene, and Yu Darvish is starring as Daisuke Matsuzaka.

    It's still unclear whether Darvish will make the jump to Major League Baseball, but it's been believed since 2010 that 2012 is a logical arrival time, meaning the young phenom's name will inevitably be tossed around throughout this offseason.

    There's also no indication at this moment that the Red Sox are interested in the 25-year-old right-hander's services. But considering the Sox' projected 2012 starting rotation has some question marks, especially after the 2011 version's collapse down the stretch, it's difficult to imagine them not kicking the tires on Darvish if and when he decides he's going to try his hand in America. The team's recent rolls of the dice (no pun intended) when it comes to Japanese imports (Daisuke MatsuzakaHideki OkajimaJunichi Tazawa) also suggest that the Sox are probably a team we shouldn't rule out of the Darvish sweepstakes.

    But as unclear as the whole potential Darvish fervor still is right now, it's abundantly clear the Sox would be wise to steer clear of the Japanese hurler if he does decide to pitch in the majors next season.

    Not only has it been speculated that the total price to obtain Darvish could reach $100 million or more, but history isn't exactly on the right-hander's side, either.

    Matsuzaka's tumultuous career with the Sox is well-documented, but he's not the only Japanese "ace" to falter upon joining the MLB recently. Matsuzaka (six years, $103 million), Kei Igawa (five years, $46 million) andKenshin Kawakami (three years, $23 million) have all struggled despite earning substantial paydays based on the hype surrounding them upon their exit from Japan.

    None of those pitchers have been selected to an All-Star Game in their careers. In fact, Japanese-born pitchers have only made six All-Star appearances ever -- Kazuhiro Sasaki was named to the AL team in 2001 and 2002, and Hideo Nomo (1995), Shigetoshi Hasegawa (2003), Okajima (2007) and Takashi Saito (2007) have all been selected once.

    Now to discredit Darvish's potential because of the accomplishments -- or lack thereof -- of other Japanese pitching prospects wouldn't be fair. It would be a complete generalization and would seriously undermine the skill set that's made him a fantastic pitcher in the Pacific League of Nippon Professional Baseball.

    But the fact remains: Japan's major league is much different than Major League Baseball, particularly the culture and the way in which player's prepare. If Darvish were to live up to expectations, he'd be the exception rather than the rule based on history. The trend of Japanese pitchers not seeing their success in Japan translate into success in America is just too alarming to gamble potentially $100 million -- especially if you're a team that doesn't generally shell out big contracts.

    And while that probably isn't much of a concern for the Red Sox, as they're coming off perhaps the biggest offseason spending spree in team history in 2010-11, they still have the talent level to succeed without needing to completely open up their checkbooks. Instead, the team should allocate its efforts to focus on internal issues -- such as who is going to be managing come Opening Day.

    If, after that, the Sox decide to go after pitching via free agency in an effort to improve, there are other lower-risk options that should be considered before making a play at a big fish like Darvish, including Edwin Jackson,Rich HardenJoel Pineiro and Jason Marquis. The Texas Rangers' C.J. Wilson is also set to become an unrestricted free agent for teams looking to obtain a top-of-the-rotation starter, although his price should exceed Darvish's.

    Darvish could become a fine major league pitcher -- a bona fide ace, perhaps. After all, he exceled in the 2009 World Baseball Classic and has a 91-36 record to go along with an impressive 2.04 ERA in his career with Japan's Nippon Ham Fighters. He's also coming off his best season as a pro, matching a career-high with 16 wins and compiling a career-high 1.54 ERA in 175 innings.

    All are fantastic statistics, except that last number.

    Darvish already has seven full seasons to his credit in Japan, tossing over 200 innings in three of them. He's been pitching since 2005, when he was just 18 years old.

    As Matthias Koster of the blog Mop-Up Duty points out, Darvish threw 140 or more pitches nine times in 2010. In the majors, a pitcher only topped the 140-pitch mark once, which was Jackson's 149-pitch no-hitter. Darvish even had back-to-back outings during which he threw 156 and 150 pitches.

    For the season, Koster reports that Darvish averaged about 128 pitches per start.

    These pitch counts are common across Japanese baseball, as Matsuzaka also reached pitch counts in Japan that were much higher than those he's been limited to in the majors. Japanese pitchers are on a different type of throwing regimen, often receiving an additional two or more days between starts than they typically would in a Major League rotation. But while one would believe this might alleviate some concerns about Darvish's arm going forward, Matsuzaka's strikingly similar career path raises a red flag.

    Matsuzaka has never fully embraced a typical major league starter throwing regimen with the Sox. He oftendisagreed with the organization on how much and how often he should throw between starts. In Japan, he was accustomed to throwing long toss and bullpen sessions on the same day, which is a habit the Sox broke upon his arrival. Darvish would also be expected to break his current routine, likely by any team he lands with, which could have adverse effects.

    There's no denying the talent that Darvish has, but when everything is taken into account as a package, it's difficult to imagine why one would want to dish out a large sum of cash to the young phenom.

    He could prove me and everyone else wrong. But if I were an MLB GM, I'd just as soon watch him do it for another team, because the risk far outweighs the reward.

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from slomag. Show slomag's posts

    Re: Red Sox don't have a true number 1 starter-time to get one.

    In Response to Re: Red Sox don't have a true number 1 starter-time to get one.:
    [QUOTE]First of all, I disagree with your research. Holladay pitched over 1200 innings from age 18-25 before pitching 266 innings at age 26.  Took him 8 years to pitched 1200 innings.  Darvish pitched over 1200 innings from age 18-24 (including this 2011 season).  That is one year difference between these two plus Holladay pitched more game per year than Darvish.  Holladay only have like less than 20 completed games in his first 8 years of his career compare to Darvish already have over 40 completed games.  So therefore Darvish overworked at every game in most of his career. Now if you look at the stats for Japanese League, Darvish isnt the "MLB Cy Young" pitcher this year.  There are probably two or maybe three pitchers that have better stats than Darvish.  Plus there are over 25 starting pitchers that have under 3.00 ERA compare to only like 16 MLB starting pitchers that have under 3.00 ERA (mostly from NL).  So therefore the hitters in Japan are much weaker than the MLB's!!!! Read the next post that I will copied and pasted from NESN
    Posted by GoUconn13[/QUOTE]

    If it was true that Japanese leagues are full of weak hitters, then why do the superstar hitters like Ichiro and Matsui translate well to the states?  My theory is that the strike zone is wider in Japan - maybe the reason Dice-K is always 'nibbling' at the plate is that he is used to getting those called strikes.  Nomo was actually tremendous his first two years with the Dodgers, but once batters realized that his pitches wound up in the dirt more often than not, they learned to lay off them.  Nomo also relied heavily on deception of delivery, which after a couple hundred innings and a ton of game film, is less and less deceptive with every start.  Oki was the same way, taking a little longer for batters to catch on because he pitched fewer innings.

    Darvish does not have a deceptive delivery, and he has incredible command.  The idea that Japanese pitchers have all blown out their arms at the age of 27 is ridiculous - there are many pitchers with less acclaim coming over in their mid to late 30s and making fantastic contributions.  Koji Uehara is 36 and has a WHIP of .723!

     
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  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from sindarin-erebor. Show sindarin-erebor's posts

    Re: Red Sox don't have a true number 1 starter-time to get one.

    Please not another Japanese high priced FA. Please stop the madness. I still have DiceK migranes.
     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from slomag. Show slomag's posts

    Re: Red Sox don't have a true number 1 starter-time to get one.

    In Response to Re: Red Sox don't have a true number 1 starter-time to get one.:
    [QUOTE]Please not another Japanese high priced FA. Please stop the madness. I still have DiceK migranes.
    Posted by sindarin-erebor[/QUOTE]

    All things being equal, we're doing better with high-priced FAs from Japan than we are with high-priced FAs from Texas.
     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from TitleTown11. Show TitleTown11's posts

    Re: Red Sox don't have a true number 1 starter-time to get one.

    Listen UConn...there obviously is no pleasing you on this topic. I'm not going to count minor league innings down to the last 1/3 of an inning to explain why I think Darvish will be successful. There is a risk with ANY pitcher, not just Japanese ones, not just ones that throw lots of innings or complete games, not just ones that throw hard. Throwing a baseball is an unnatural motion for the human body - hence injuries.

    Ok, so now that we are past that - try to understand my greater point. We need pitching and there are three ways to get it. 
    1) Internal Promotions - Bard and Aceves are candidates to start, but Bard never has in MLB and Aceves was invaluable as a long reliever. I would like to see Bard stay and let Aceves pitch for the #5 spot. Weiland, Doubront, Wilson, other prospects have little shot of breaking the rotation without injuries.

    2) Trade - To get something you have to give something. And when you are trying to get a proven MLB starter, you give alot. Given that our farm system is devoid of high level talent, I say no to this.

    3) FA - Okay so they have to sign someone. They are going to have to pay top dollar. Who is a worthy pitcher to INVEST in? 32 year olds for 5 years and more than Lackey is making? Overpay retread starters 2 and 3 year deals at $10 M per? No - at least I don't think so. If you are looking to build your rotation long term, you invest in someone young with talent and upside. Cue Darvish now.

    His stats are inflated because of larger strike zone, less league talent, and undisciplined hitters hacking at every breaking ball he throws. He will obviously have to adjust to MLB hitters, but I'd rather see him than the other options. I don't know how else to explain this logic to other readers. People are foolish if they don't want him because he has thrown lots of pitches or because Dice-K wasn't good. How many pitches do you think Sabathia has thrown in his life? 
     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from Thesemenarecowards. Show Thesemenarecowards's posts

    Re: Red Sox don't have a true number 1 starter-time to get one.

    What A.L. teams do have a "true #1 starter"?  Det and Sea do.  CC was the obvious #1 on the Yanks staff but his October was once again less than stellar, he struggled VS. Boston most of the year and he may not be back.  C.J. Wilson has won 16 games a couple years in a row but hasn't been very good in October, is he a true # 1?  LAA have Weaver/Haren is that better than Beckett/Lester?  TB has a great staff but is there a true #1 in there?

    Whether or not Beckett or Lester meet the criteria for true #1 starter isn't really all that important to me.  If Beckett and Lester come back in 2012 and pitch like they did in 2011 and Clay is healthy than the Red Sox have as good a 1-3 as anyone. 

    Look at the 2 teams in the World Series right now and tell me that a "true #1" is more important than overall depth.
     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from bald-predictions. Show bald-predictions's posts

    Re: Red Sox don't have a true number 1 starter-time to get one.

    Yu Darvish Links: Yankees, Jays, Rangers, Mariners By Mark Polishuk [October 20, 2011 at 5:17pm CST] Here's the latest on the Yu Darvish sweepstakes... * Brian Cashman told Wallace Matthews of ESPN New York that the Yankees scouted Darvish last season in Japan, but unsurprisingly didn't comment about whether or not the team would be interested in bidding for the right-hander. * Yankee management is unlikely to pay an expensive posting fee for Darvish given the club's spotty history with Japanese pitchers, reports Joel Sherman of the New York Post (Twitter link). For what's it worth, the "Yankees' scouts love Darvish." Sherman also believes the Rangers and Blue Jays are the favorites to land Darvish this winter. * The Mariners have scouted Darvish but, in the opinion of Larry Stone of the Seattle Times, the M's shouldn't make a bid since the team has so much young pitching coming up from the minors. Stone also points out that "the Mariners have not become the haven for Japanese players that was predicted by some" when Hiroshi Yamauchi became the club's principal owner. http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2011/10/yu-darvish-l inks-yankees-jays-rangers-mariners.html?utm_medium =facebook&utm_source=twitterfeed
     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from chain-reaction. Show chain-reaction's posts

    Re: Red Sox don't have a true number 1 starter-time to get one.

    Agree
     

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