Re: Red Sox in Trouble
posted at 4/25/2014 5:44 PM EDT
In response to MadMc44's comment:
On the Sox 40 man Roster they have 19 pitchers, 5 catchers, 1 DH and 15 position players protected.
JBJ, Xander and WMB may be the only players with options on today's 25 man roster.
AJP, Mujica, Badenhop, were FA and can't be traded until June--I think. Not sure about Nap--he would not be traded anyway.
We don't have much flexibility and BenC's hands are tied because he sometimes doesn't make good choices and he keeps people that could /should be off the 40... Ex Hassan, Lavarnway, Butler---DFA them--if they get claimed try to make a trade. Better yet if they get claimed package one with Doubront and get a decent prospect. This opens a few 40 man slots for other potential prospects.
I agree having 5 catchers on the roster is too much. I think Lavarnway should be DFA'd and Butler kept. We still need a catcher if someone goes down and he could probably come up right now and might provide better defense. Christian Vasquez may very well be ready by July. Alex Hassan needs to stay, he is a lifetime hitter of .289/.398/.436 who has actually looked better at the triple AAA level putting up a .321/.431/.460 last year in Pawtucket and a high OBP the year before. Yes he is off to a .232/.338/.362 start with 69 at bats so I'm sure the small sample size Nazis will be all over that. But Alex Hassan can play both LF/RF/1B and might be able to replace Mike Carp right now. ( who should also be expendable).
Most other teams wouldn't send guys like JBJ and Xander down right now anyways, and every team has FA's they can't trade until later either. I don't really think our hands are tied anymore than most other teams out there.
If we had to field a whole team of backups/depth it wouldn't be sexy, but I'd take our team over any others. Of course for those who are intrigued by the ideal of making major trades it's easy enough to open up a spot by just trading away one of your starters, or even just DFA one guy like Lavarnway. Ryan Roberts could likely be DFA'd as well and replaced by Mookie Betts by June (Mike McCoy is not going to block Betts)
But these things often don't happen to July anyways; at least in terms of big names being traded for. Now Where Ben really has a chance to play his hand is in the off season after this season.. Next year the Sox will have a payroll of 105 million assuming all options are exercised except Peavy/Breslow (which is almost a lock), and in 2016 assuming Ortiz and Buchholz options are exercised the team will have 122 million to play with.
I do assume the Sox will increase payroll up to, right below or slightly over the luxury tax ceiling. This is something they have done every year for over a decade.
We also know Ben C. boasts a consensus top 5 and arguably best minor league system in the league. So assuming the Sox spend around the luxury tax limit and assuming teams like the Marlins and Astros continue to not spend the sox have tremendous payroll flexibility, perhaps the most in the league and an abundance of chips in terms of prospects.
Over the next off season, no ones hands are more not tied, and more free than Ben Charringtons. I for one am happy that he isn't blowing his load, panicking, and playing his hand now when he knows wiser decisions can be made in the near distant future. The Boston Red Sox are not going to reduce payroll to 67.6 million by 2016 and just pay a bunch of rookies peanuts and jack up ticket prices. They are going to spend that money, and it may be on extending their own prospects to team friendly deals buying out some costly FA years and it will be augmented by bringing in big names too.
Just because Ben C. didn't go out and sign Josh Hamilton and Jacoby Ellsbury, doesn't mean he isn't going to sign big contracts. I don't know about everyone in this forum but when I make a huge financial decision I don't take it lightly, I don't jump at the first opportunity to spend my money, I don't BUY the first car I test drive. Ben C. is waiting to play his chips at the appropriate time, now some of us might be displeased with his patience and timing but I trust Ben C and the Sox brass more than anyone in here (including myself)
I think Ellsbury brings up a relevant point to be made. Some people in here are saying/thinking that it has been proven that the wrong decision was made letting Ellsbury walk. He is being paid over 21 million a year for 7 years from ages 30-36 for what he did in his 20's. It might sting right now, but we are basing the argument of letting Ellsbury walk in favor of Bradley/Sizemore based on 83 at bats this season. Will Ellsbury really come back to haunt us for the next 6 years???? Even if you could win the argument that Ellsbury is not injury prone he's still going to become more injury prone and lose a step in his 30's and Ben C. probably thinks he could spend 21 million a year a lot wiser than that.
Power ages better than speed, perhaps Ben C wants to throw his money at Hanley Ramirez next year, and trade WMB + prospects (Owens/Betts+ ) Cargo or Stanton. Now that is a lot to assume and a crazy scenario, but something in that universe might make a lot more sense for the Red Sox and make them a much better team over the long run. Because it is how successful franchises operate, they look at the long term horizon and are often never in panic mode desperate to throw all their chips on the table. Such men exists!!! and they often either run a bad organization or they are running down an organization. The point is it doesn't matter what Ellsbury does, because the Red Sox think they can spend 21 million a year better; and they will spend it on the guy they like. They can do that, they have the prospects to trade for an ACE, and they have the money to just go out and sign a Scherzer/Hanley Ramirez next year if they prefer.
So I'd say Ben C's hands aren't tied at all now that I think about it. Because he knows he holds a bundle of chips and he knows if he plays them right he will hit the jackpot. If everyone in this forum sat down at one big poker game with Charrington....he'd likely win.