Red Sox MVP, 2013

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from LloydDobler. Show LloydDobler's posts

    Re: Red Sox MVP, 2013

    You could put three or four names  in a hat and draw one,  and you'd get a good pick. I don't  disagree with any of the choices,  but mine would be Dustin Pedroia. He's the little engine that drives this train. Has been, really, since '07.

    Which is not to take away from Koji Uehara. He's been unbelievable.

     

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from maxbialystock. Show maxbialystock's posts

    Re: Red Sox MVP, 2013

    Sorry, but there are three very good reasons why Uehara, who I entirely agree has had a fantastic season, cannot be the Sox MVP for 2013.

    1.  14 saves???!!!  Not his fault he doesn't have more because Bailey and Hanrahan were supposed to be the closers and for awhile were, but the fact is that 14 saves does not make you team MVP for a season to date of 135 games. 

    2.  WAR (wins above replacement).  Hardly a definitive stat, but right now it is the only one that compares not only relief pitchers to starters, but also pitchers to everyone else.  On the current Sox team, the three top WAR ratings belong to Ellsbury, Pedroia, and Victorino, who are ranked 8th, 9th, and 10th in the AL.  Ortiz is ranked 26th.  Among Boston pitchers, Buchholz and Lackey, are ranked ahead of Uehara--their respective AL WAR rankings are 10th, 14th, and 16th. 

    3.  Innings played.  The Sox have played roughly (135 x 9 = 1215) 1215 innings to date, not including extra innings or shortened games, and Uehara has played/pitched in 59 of those innings.  To me it makes absolutely no sense to give the MVP to someone who played in less than 5% of the innings. 

    Pedroia, on the other hand, has played in 1206 of those 1215 innings, not including any games in which he was pulled early.  His WAR is the 9th best in the AL.  He ranks 2d on the Sox in rbi's, hits, and runs scored.  He plays 2B superbly and rarely has a game in which he doesn't have to dive for a grounder.  He plays hurt. 

    There can only be one choice for team MVP, Dustin Pedroia.  No one else is even close. 

     

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Red Sox MVP, 2013

    In response to maxbialystock's comment:

     

    Sorry, but there are three very good reasons why Uehara, who I entirely agree has had a fantastic season, cannot be the Sox MVP for 2013.

    1.  14 saves???!!!  Not his fault he doesn't have more because Bailey and Hanrahan were supposed to be the closers and for awhile were, but the fact is that 14 saves does not make you team MVP for a season to date of 135 games. 

    You are discounting the fact that he was a lights out set up man before he became the lights out closer.

    2.  WAR (wins above replacement).  Hardly a definitive stat, but right now it is the only one that compares not only relief pitchers to starters, but also pitchers to everyone else.  On the current Sox team, the three top WAR ratings belong to Ellsbury, Pedroia, and Victorino, who are ranked 8th, 9th, and 10th in the AL.  Ortiz is ranked 26th.  Among Boston pitchers, Buchholz and Lackey, are ranked ahead of Uehara--their respective AL WAR rankings are 10th, 14th, and 16th. 

    WAR is notoriously harsh on releivers, but Uehara is 2nd in MLB relief pitchers with a 2.4 WAR.

    3.  Innings played.  The Sox have played roughly (135 x 9 = 1215) 1215 innings to date, not including extra innings or shortened games, and Uehara has played/pitched in 59 of those innings.  To me it makes absolutely no sense to give the MVP to someone who played in less than 5% of the innings. 

    Take away his 2 intentional BB, and he's gotten 177 outs out of 213 opponent PAs.

    .142 BA

    .182 OBP

    .260 SLG

    .442 OPS (.381 OPS in high leverage situations)

    0.644 WHIP

    80 Ks in 59 IP (12.2 K/9)

     

    Pedroia, on the other hand, has played in 1206 of those 1215 innings, not including any games in which he was pulled early.  His WAR is the 9th best in the AL.  He ranks 2d on the Sox in rbi's, hits, and runs scored.  He plays 2B superbly and rarely has a game in which he doesn't have to dive for a grounder.  He plays hurt. 

    MVP for playing hurt?

    There can only be one choice for team MVP, Dustin Pedroia.  No one else is even close. 

    Nobody on the team is close to being league MVP. It's been a team effort all the way. Pedey is certainly one of the top candidates, and Pedey's OBP is nice, but he's not clearly the only team MVP candidate worth consideration.

     

     




     

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from BMav. Show BMav's posts

    Re: Red Sox MVP, 2013

    In response to maxbialystock's comment:

    Sorry, but there are three very good reasons why Uehara, who I entirely agree has had a fantastic season, cannot be the Sox MVP for 2013.

    1.  14 saves???!!!  Not his fault he doesn't have more because Bailey and Hanrahan were supposed to be the closers and for awhile were, but the fact is that 14 saves does not make you team MVP for a season to date of 135 games. 

    2.  WAR (wins above replacement).  Hardly a definitive stat, but right now it is the only one that compares not only relief pitchers to starters, but also pitchers to everyone else.  On the current Sox team, the three top WAR ratings belong to Ellsbury, Pedroia, and Victorino, who are ranked 8th, 9th, and 10th in the AL.  Ortiz is ranked 26th.  Among Boston pitchers, Buchholz and Lackey, are ranked ahead of Uehara--their respective AL WAR rankings are 10th, 14th, and 16th. 

    3.  Innings played.  The Sox have played roughly (135 x 9 = 1215) 1215 innings to date, not including extra innings or shortened games, and Uehara has played/pitched in 59 of those innings.  To me it makes absolutely no sense to give the MVP to someone who played in less than 5% of the innings. 

    Pedroia, on the other hand, has played in 1206 of those 1215 innings, not including any games in which he was pulled early.  His WAR is the 9th best in the AL.  He ranks 2d on the Sox in rbi's, hits, and runs scored.  He plays 2B superbly and rarely has a game in which he doesn't have to dive for a grounder.  He plays hurt. 

    There can only be one choice for team MVP, Dustin Pedroia.  No one else is even close. 

     



    If you go solely by WAR and innings, your argument is that a closer can NEVER be an MVP of a team. Thats because I don't think any closer in the last 30 years has lead his team in WAR. For example, here are the 4 top WAR numbers from Fangraphs for Mariano Rivera as the Yankees closer----3.3---3.2---3.0---2.6. According to you, Mariano was not only never the Yankees MVP in any season, but he was never even close.

     

    However, Dustin is a solid choice.

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from bosoxmal. Show bosoxmal's posts

    Re: Red Sox MVP, 2013

    I've been a heavy-duty Red Sox (and Braves) fan since 1932 (don't get out your slide rule; thats 81 years), and I have never seen anything even close to UEHARA. Rivera is Rivera, Radatz and his 100 mph fasball was Radatz, Wacko Papelbon was very good (most of the time), but nobody, NOBODY, gets 3 out consistantly, with a 90 MPH fastball that moves abot 5 mm, and an 82 MPH sinker that waits until it's 6" from the plate befoe it decides to sink.

    Mainly, of course, if Salty hels a 6" diameter saucer somewhere around home plate, he'd shatter it 4 out of 5 times.

    Right now, I still think Salty is our 2013 MVP, because he would be impossible to replace, and we would go nowhere without him. BUT, if Uehara carries this "Impossible Perfomance" thru the World Series, my emotional side would have to rethink that choice.

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from maxbialystock. Show maxbialystock's posts

    Re: Red Sox MVP, 2013

    After last night's 4 outs, I'd give Uehara the AL Cy Young.  Boy, we sure needed those 4 outs.  The guy is nothing short of incredible. 

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from notin. Show notin's posts

    Re: Red Sox MVP, 2013

    I have trouble considerinv either Saltalamacchia of Uehara as MVP.  Salty has been up and down and the team has done better when Ross played.  Giving the award to a closer when the team seems to specialize in walkoff swins and is last in saves seems odd.  Is Uehara even the best addition this off-season?   Ovet Victorino or Gomes?

     

     

    Ottiz or Pedroia.  I give the slight edge to Ortiz...

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from notin. Show notin's posts

    Re: Red Sox MVP, 2013

    In response to maxbialystock's comment:

    After last night's 4 outs, I'd give Uehara the AL Cy Young.  Boy, we sure needed those 4 outs.  The guy is nothing short of incredible. 



    Over Scherzer?  Or Anibal Sanchez?  Or Darvish?

     

    Uehara is not even a candidate.  Bartolo Colon is a much more serious dark horse...

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from maxbialystock. Show maxbialystock's posts

    Re: Red Sox MVP, 2013

    In response to notin's comment:

    In response to maxbialystock's comment:
    [QUOTE]

     

    After last night's 4 outs, I'd give Uehara the AL Cy Young.  Boy, we sure needed those 4 outs.  The guy is nothing short of incredible. 

     



    Over Scherzer?  Or Anibal Sanchez?  Or Darvish?

     

     

    Uehara is not even a candidate.  Bartolo Colon is a much more serious dark horse...

    [/QUOTE]

    You have to know I was joking, especially since I earlier lambasted Uehara on this thread.  I just wanted to give Uehara his due for last night and thought I could only do that by going over the top.  I could just as well have said AL MVP. 

     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from notin. Show notin's posts

    Re: Red Sox MVP, 2013

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    In response to maxbialystock's comment:

     

    Sorry, but there are three very good reasons why Uehara, who I entirely agree has had a fantastic season, cannot be the Sox MVP for 2013.

    1.  14 saves???!!!  Not his fault he doesn't have more because Bailey and Hanrahan were supposed to be the closers and for awhile were, but the fact is that 14 saves does not make you team MVP for a season to date of 135 games. 

    You are discounting the fact that he was a lights out set up man before he became the lights out closer.

    2.  WAR (wins above replacement).  Hardly a definitive stat, but right now it is the only one that compares not only relief pitchers to starters, but also pitchers to everyone else.  On the current Sox team, the three top WAR ratings belong to Ellsbury, Pedroia, and Victorino, who are ranked 8th, 9th, and 10th in the AL.  Ortiz is ranked 26th.  Among Boston pitchers, Buchholz and Lackey, are ranked ahead of Uehara--their respective AL WAR rankings are 10th, 14th, and 16th. 

    WAR is notoriously harsh on releivers, but Uehara is 2nd in MLB relief pitchers with a 2.4 WAR.

    3.  Innings played.  The Sox have played roughly (135 x 9 = 1215) 1215 innings to date, not including extra innings or shortened games, and Uehara has played/pitched in 59 of those innings.  To me it makes absolutely no sense to give the MVP to someone who played in less than 5% of the innings. 

    Take away his 2 intentional BB, and he's gotten 177 outs out of 213 opponent PAs.

    .142 BA

    .182 OBP

    .260 SLG

    .442 OPS (.381 OPS in high leverage situations)

    0.644 WHIP

    80 Ks in 59 IP (12.2 K/9)

     

    Pedroia, on the other hand, has played in 1206 of those 1215 innings, not including any games in which he was pulled early.  His WAR is the 9th best in the AL.  He ranks 2d on the Sox in rbi's, hits, and runs scored.  He plays 2B superbly and rarely has a game in which he doesn't have to dive for a grounder.  He plays hurt. 

    MVP for playing hurt?

    There can only be one choice for team MVP, Dustin Pedroia.  No one else is even close. 

    Nobody on the team is close to being league MVP. It's been a team effort all the way. Pedey is certainly one of the top candidates, and Pedey's OBP is nice, but he's not clearly the only team MVP candidate worth consideration.

     

     




     



    I would not say WAR is harsh on relievers.  I would say it attempts to scale the impact a single reliever has on a team as opposed to a starting pitcher or position player. How do you quantfy a pitcher throwing 50 or 60 innings had a greater impact than a pitcher throwing 150 to 200?

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from notin. Show notin's posts

    Re: Red Sox MVP, 2013

    In response to maxbialystock's comment:

    In response to notin's comment:

    [QUOTE]

     

    In response to maxbialystock's comment:

    [QUOTE]

     

     

    After last night's 4 outs, I'd give Uehara the AL Cy Young.  Boy, we sure needed those 4 outs.  The guy is nothing short of incredible. 

     

     



    Over Scherzer?  Or Anibal Sanchez?  Or Darvish?

     

     

     

    Uehara is not even a candidate.  Bartolo Colon is a much more serious dark horse...

     

    [/QUOTE]

    You have to know I was joking, especially since I earlier lambasted Uehara on this thread.  I just wanted to give Uehara his due for last night and thought I could only do that by going over the top.  I could just as well have said AL MVP. 

     

    [/QUOTE]

    Ok 

    I skipped to the end of the thread

     I do that a lot whem I am on my phone and not my PC

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from notin. Show notin's posts

    Re: Red Sox MVP, 2013

    In response to BMav's comment:

    In response to maxbialystock's comment:

    [QUOTE]

     

    Sorry, but there are three very good reasons why Uehara, who I entirely agree has had a fantastic season, cannot be the Sox MVP for 2013.

    1.  14 saves???!!!  Not his fault he doesn't have more because Bailey and Hanrahan were supposed to be the closers and for awhile were, but the fact is that 14 saves does not make you team MVP for a season to date of 135 games. 

    2.  WAR (wins above replacement).  Hardly a definitive stat, but right now it is the only one that compares not only relief pitchers to starters, but also pitchers to everyone else.  On the current Sox team, the three top WAR ratings belong to Ellsbury, Pedroia, and Victorino, who are ranked 8th, 9th, and 10th in the AL.  Ortiz is ranked 26th.  Among Boston pitchers, Buchholz and Lackey, are ranked ahead of Uehara--their respective AL WAR rankings are 10th, 14th, and 16th. 

    3.  Innings played.  The Sox have played roughly (135 x 9 = 1215) 1215 innings to date, not including extra innings or shortened games, and Uehara has played/pitched in 59 of those innings.  To me it makes absolutely no sense to give the MVP to someone who played in less than 5% of the innings. 

    Pedroia, on the other hand, has played in 1206 of those 1215 innings, not including any games in which he was pulled early.  His WAR is the 9th best in the AL.  He ranks 2d on the Sox in rbi's, hits, and runs scored.  He plays 2B superbly and rarely has a game in which he doesn't have to dive for a grounder.  He plays hurt. 

    There can only be one choice for team MVP, Dustin Pedroia.  No one else is even close. 

     

     



    If you go solely by WAR and innings, your argument is that a closer can NEVER be an MVP of a team. Thats because I don't think any closer in the last 30 years has lead his team in WAR. For example, here are the 4 top WAR numbers from Fangraphs for Mariano Rivera as the Yankees closer----3.3---3.2---3.0---2.6. According to you, Mariano was not only never the Yankees MVP in any season, but he was never even close.

     

     

    However, Dustin is a solid choice.

    [/QUOTE]

    Ok.  During what season should Rivera have been Yankees' team MVP? And why was he a better choice than the team leader in WAR?

     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from trouts. Show trouts's posts

    Re: Red Sox MVP, 2013

    In response to maxbialystock's comment:

    After last night's 4 outs, I'd give Uehara the AL Cy Young.  Boy, we sure needed those 4 outs.  The guy is nothing short of incredible. 

    Don't know about the Cy Young, Detroit might have some issues there, but you are right that he has been incredible this year. Paps used to make 4 out-appearances and now Farrell is using Uehara that way. My only hope is that they don't burn the guy out. He's the only guy is that bullpen that I have solid confidence in.


     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from BMav. Show BMav's posts

    Re: Red Sox MVP, 2013

    In response to notin's comment:

    In response to BMav's comment:
    [QUOTE]

     

    In response to maxbialystock's comment:

    [QUOTE]

     

     

    Sorry, but there are three very good reasons why Uehara, who I entirely agree has had a fantastic season, cannot be the Sox MVP for 2013.

    1.  14 saves???!!!  Not his fault he doesn't have more because Bailey and Hanrahan were supposed to be the closers and for awhile were, but the fact is that 14 saves does not make you team MVP for a season to date of 135 games. 

    2.  WAR (wins above replacement).  Hardly a definitive stat, but right now it is the only one that compares not only relief pitchers to starters, but also pitchers to everyone else.  On the current Sox team, the three top WAR ratings belong to Ellsbury, Pedroia, and Victorino, who are ranked 8th, 9th, and 10th in the AL.  Ortiz is ranked 26th.  Among Boston pitchers, Buchholz and Lackey, are ranked ahead of Uehara--their respective AL WAR rankings are 10th, 14th, and 16th. 

    3.  Innings played.  The Sox have played roughly (135 x 9 = 1215) 1215 innings to date, not including extra innings or shortened games, and Uehara has played/pitched in 59 of those innings.  To me it makes absolutely no sense to give the MVP to someone who played in less than 5% of the innings. 

    Pedroia, on the other hand, has played in 1206 of those 1215 innings, not including any games in which he was pulled early.  His WAR is the 9th best in the AL.  He ranks 2d on the Sox in rbi's, hits, and runs scored.  He plays 2B superbly and rarely has a game in which he doesn't have to dive for a grounder.  He plays hurt. 

    There can only be one choice for team MVP, Dustin Pedroia.  No one else is even close. 

     

     

     



    If you go solely by WAR and innings, your argument is that a closer can NEVER be an MVP of a team. Thats because I don't think any closer in the last 30 years has lead his team in WAR. For example, here are the 4 top WAR numbers from Fangraphs for Mariano Rivera as the Yankees closer----3.3---3.2---3.0---2.6. According to you, Mariano was not only never the Yankees MVP in any season, but he was never even close.

     

     

     

    However, Dustin is a solid choice.

     

    [/QUOTE]

    Ok.  During what season should Rivera have been Yankees' team MVP? And why was he a better choice than the team leader in WAR?

     

    [/QUOTE]


    I would say 2008 looks like Rivera would have gotten my vote for Yankees MVP with ease. In 2008, he had 39 saves with only 1 blown save. He had an ERA of 1.38 and a WHIP of 0.665 and an xFIP of 2.28.

    Did a few others on the Yankees have more WAR, yes. But it would be laughable to argue some of those guys had more valuable seasons to the Yankees then Rivera. Johnny Damon had more WAR. Fangraphs gave more WAR by .8 to Andy Pettite, who was 14-14 with a 4.54 ERA and a 1.41 WHIP. Do you think Pettite had a 20% more valuable season then Rivera?

    There are another 5-6 seasons where Rivera would have won if not for great players having great seasons, something the Red Sox players are not currently doing.

    I personally buy that closing is special. I buy that it has extra value. Major league baseball agrees with me. Its why closers get payed twice as much as set up guys even though their WARS would be identical. There is few things worse then blowing a game in the 9th that you thought you had won. It hurts the entire team, sometimes days afterward. Watch the Red Sox-Angels and Red Sox-Mets playoffs from 1986 as obvious examples. The Yankees have rarely had to deal with the messed up psyche of the entire team in the last 15 years and have a ton of wins and championships to show for it.

    I like WAR, but this is one example where its off. Closers deserve extra credit in WAR.

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from notin. Show notin's posts

    Re: Red Sox MVP, 2013

    In response to BMav's comment:

    In response to notin's comment:
    [QUOTE]

     

    In response to BMav's comment:
    [QUOTE]

     

     

    In response to maxbialystock's comment:

    [QUOTE]

     

     

     

    Sorry, but there are three very good reasons why Uehara, who I entirely agree has had a fantastic season, cannot be the Sox MVP for 2013.

    1.  14 saves???!!!  Not his fault he doesn't have more because Bailey and Hanrahan were supposed to be the closers and for awhile were, but the fact is that 14 saves does not make you team MVP for a season to date of 135 games. 

    2.  WAR (wins above replacement).  Hardly a definitive stat, but right now it is the only one that compares not only relief pitchers to starters, but also pitchers to everyone else.  On the current Sox team, the three top WAR ratings belong to Ellsbury, Pedroia, and Victorino, who are ranked 8th, 9th, and 10th in the AL.  Ortiz is ranked 26th.  Among Boston pitchers, Buchholz and Lackey, are ranked ahead of Uehara--their respective AL WAR rankings are 10th, 14th, and 16th. 

    3.  Innings played.  The Sox have played roughly (135 x 9 = 1215) 1215 innings to date, not including extra innings or shortened games, and Uehara has played/pitched in 59 of those innings.  To me it makes absolutely no sense to give the MVP to someone who played in less than 5% of the innings. 

    Pedroia, on the other hand, has played in 1206 of those 1215 innings, not including any games in which he was pulled early.  His WAR is the 9th best in the AL.  He ranks 2d on the Sox in rbi's, hits, and runs scored.  He plays 2B superbly and rarely has a game in which he doesn't have to dive for a grounder.  He plays hurt. 

    There can only be one choice for team MVP, Dustin Pedroia.  No one else is even close. 

     

     

     

     



    If you go solely by WAR and innings, your argument is that a closer can NEVER be an MVP of a team. Thats because I don't think any closer in the last 30 years has lead his team in WAR. For example, here are the 4 top WAR numbers from Fangraphs for Mariano Rivera as the Yankees closer----3.3---3.2---3.0---2.6. According to you, Mariano was not only never the Yankees MVP in any season, but he was never even close.

     

     

     

     

    However, Dustin is a solid choice.

     

     

    [/QUOTE]

    Ok.  During what season should Rivera have been Yankees' team MVP? And why was he a better choice than the team leader in WAR?

     

     

     

    [/QUOTE]


    I would say 2008 looks like Rivera would have gotten my vote for Yankees MVP with ease. In 2008, he had 39 saves with only 1 blown save. He had an ERA of 1.38 and a WHIP of 0.665 and an xFIP of 2.28.

     

    Did a few others on the Yankees have more WAR, yes. But it would be laughable to argue some of those guys had more valuable seasons to the Yankees then Rivera. Johnny Damon had more WAR. Fangraphs gave more WAR by .8 to Andy Pettite, who was 14-14 with a 4.54 ERA and a 1.41 WHIP. Do you think Pettite had a 20% more valuable season then Rivera?

    There are another 5-6 seasons where Rivera would have won if not for great players having great seasons, something the Red Sox players are not currently doing.

    I personally buy that closing is special. I buy that it has extra value. Major league baseball agrees with me. Its why closers get payed twice as much as set up guys even though their WARS would be identical. There is few things worse then blowing a game in the 9th that you thought you had won. It hurts the entire team, sometimes days afterward. Watch the Red Sox-Angels and Red Sox-Mets playoffs from 1986 as obvious examples. The Yankees have rarely had to deal with the messed up psyche of the entire team in the last 15 years and have a ton of wins and championships to show for it.

    I like WAR, but this is one example where its off. Closers deserve extra credit in WAR.

    [/QUOTE]


    I think closer value is massively overstated, and for every 1986 Angels team you mention, there is a 2001 Diamondbacks that managed to overcome just as easily.

     

    And while I have no problem agreeing Rivera is the greatest RP in history, it still does not really ever justify him being an MVP of the Yankees in any season.  I tend to agree with WAR here as it says these guys are not as impactful as many fans think.  Entire BULLPENS combining for 10 or 12 WAR is impressive and important to have, but singling out one guy who thrwe 70 innings as the team MVP seems like throwing glory around for the sake of it.

     

    As for Petttite and Rivera, absolutely Andy was worth 20% more.   Petttite threw 204 innings tha season; Rivera threw 70.  There is a defintely value in throwing 204 innings.  The lesson there is that even the middle rotation guys have a greater impact that the closer.  Why? They have the ball more often.  That's why.  And while Pettitte was not reeling off ace-like stats, he was hardly incompetent on the mound as well.  He managed to pitch well enough to use up the bullpen for 204 innings.  Even if Rivera threw 70 innings and only faced 210 hitters (he faced 259), that is not as valuable as Pettitte throwing 204.  A team only has about 1400 IP in a season, and a pitcher who takes up 14% single-handedly of that workload is important

     

    Damon might be one guy you single out.  But what is the cse for Rivera as MVP of the 2008 Yankees over A-Rod or 20-game winner Mike Mussina.

     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from greenwellforpresident. Show greenwellforpresident's posts

    Re: Red Sox MVP, 2013

    In response to bosoxmal's comment:

    I've been a heavy-duty Red Sox (and Braves) fan since 1932 (don't get out your slide rule; thats 81 years), and I have never seen anything even close to UEHARA. Rivera is Rivera, Radatz and his 100 mph fasball was Radatz, Wacko Papelbon was very good (most of the time), but nobody, NOBODY, gets 3 out consistantly, with a 90 MPH fastball that moves abot 5 mm, and an 82 MPH sinker that waits until it's 6" from the plate befoe it decides to sink.

    Mainly, of course, if Salty hels a 6" diameter saucer somewhere around home plate, he'd shatter it 4 out of 5 times.

    Right now, I still think Salty is our 2013 MVP, because he would be impossible to replace, and we would go nowhere without him. BUT, if Uehara carries this "Impossible Perfomance" thru the World Series, my emotional side would have to rethink that choice.



    Did you sleep through 1989-1990.  There was this guy named Dennis something or other.

    131 ip 15 ER 7 BB (that's right 7)

    much smaller sample size for Uehara

    60 IP 8 ER 8 BB

    the stats are comparable, but Eck was sick for a couple of years

     
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  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from SonicsMonksLyresVicars. Show SonicsMonksLyresVicars's posts

    Re: Red Sox MVP, 2013

    In response to notin's comment:

     

    In response to BMav's comment:

    [QUOTE]

     

     

    I think closer value is massively overstated, and for every 1986 Angels team you mention, there is a 2001 Diamondbacks that managed to overcome just as easily.

     

    And while I have no problem agreeing Rivera is the greatest RP in history, it still does not really ever justify him being an MVP of the Yankees in any season.  I tend to agree with WAR here as it says these guys are not as impactful as many fans think.  Entire BULLPENS combining for 10 or 12 WAR is impressive and important to have, but singling out one guy who thrwe 70 innings as the team MVP seems like throwing glory around for the sake of it.

     

    As for Petttite and Rivera, absolutely Andy was worth 20% more.   Petttite threw 204 innings tha season; Rivera threw 70.  There is a defintely value in throwing 204 innings.  The lesson there is that even the middle rotation guys have a greater impact that the closer.  Why? They have the ball more often.  That's why.  And while Pettitte was not reeling off ace-like stats, he was hardly incompetent on the mound as well.  He managed to pitch well enough to use up the bullpen for 204 innings.  Even if Rivera threw 70 innings and only faced 210 hitters (he faced 259), that is not as valuable as Pettitte throwing 204.  A team only has about 1400 IP in a season, and a pitcher who takes up 14% single-handedly of that workload is important

     

    Damon might be one guy you single out.  But what is the cse for Rivera as MVP of the 2008 Yankees over A-Rod or 20-game winner Mike Mussina.

     



    Clayton Kershaw should be converted to a closer by the Dodgers.  Discuss.

     

     
  19. This post has been removed.

     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from BMav. Show BMav's posts

    Re: Red Sox MVP, 2013

    In response to notin's comment:
    [/QUOTE]

    I think closer value is massively overstated, and for every 1986 Angels team you mention, there is a 2001 Diamondbacks that managed to overcome just as easily.

     

    And while I have no problem agreeing Rivera is the greatest RP in history, it still does not really ever justify him being an MVP of the Yankees in any season.  I tend to agree with WAR here as it says these guys are not as impactful as many fans think.  Entire BULLPENS combining for 10 or 12 WAR is impressive and important to have, but singling out one guy who thrwe 70 innings as the team MVP seems like throwing glory around for the sake of it.

     

    As for Petttite and Rivera, absolutely Andy was worth 20% more.   Petttite threw 204 innings tha season; Rivera threw 70.  There is a defintely value in throwing 204 innings.  The lesson there is that even the middle rotation guys have a greater impact that the closer.  Why? They have the ball more often.  That's why.  And while Pettitte was not reeling off ace-like stats, he was hardly incompetent on the mound as well.  He managed to pitch well enough to use up the bullpen for 204 innings.  Even if Rivera threw 70 innings and only faced 210 hitters (he faced 259), that is not as valuable as Pettitte throwing 204.  A team only has about 1400 IP in a season, and a pitcher who takes up 14% single-handedly of that workload is important

     

    Damon might be one guy you single out.  But what is the cse for Rivera as MVP of the 2008 Yankees over A-Rod or 20-game winner Mike Mussina.

    [/QUOTE]


    So you disagree with paying closers more then setup guys?

    Did you watch the 1986 playoffs? What was your expectations of those two series after the blown saves?

    How bout the blown save of Rivera in 2004 as an example? Remember how that changed the momentum? I just named 3 examples that were historic in nature involving just the Red Sox in the playoffs. You said you can name examples the other way just as easily. I tend to doubt it. But they do happen. Especially with the help of guys like Schilling and Johnson. Kind of think they were perfectly built to overcome the situation. Let me just say I believe emotion is a huge factor in sports and blowing saves is very emotional and can devistate  a team.

     

    We disagree that solid innings eating is equal to historically great closing, even if 3 times the innings are pitched. But their is something positive to eating innings.

     

    One of the main things I fear the rest of the season is Koji going down. Probably more so then any player. Tazawa or Breslow closing playoff games will likely be disastorous, don't you think? Shoot, I still fear Koji come playoff time. He hasn't dealt with either huge pressure yet[such as Tampa Bay series coming up] or a blown game. And he has been shakey in past playoffs.

     

     

    ARod had a solid season. But 104 runs, 103 RBI's was about 40-50 less then he had the year before, so how good of a season could it have been. And ARod was in his 4th straight season of being a negative player player on defense. His defense stunk. The OPS was a strong .965, but it was still somewhat in the mega juice era. Comparing those facts to one of the best closing seasons in the last 25 years, its no contest for me. Rivera blew just 1 game and had by far his best stat season as a closer.

     

    As for Mussina, he had an excellent season. But it wasn't as good as Rivera's. How bout this for my last point. Rivera only pitched 70 innings. But how many of those innings were in games where the game was in doubt?  In other words, Rivera didn't play that much, but when he did, it almost always mattered. Mussina pitched in 34 games. 12 of those games were decided by atleast 5 runs. Where as Rivera pitched in only 6 games out of 64 decided by 5 runs or more. Thats 35% vs 9%. Add the dominance of those innings by Rivera[316+ vs. 131+], with the mental impact and its easy edge Rivera. Same point goes with ARod's innings and WAR stats. I don't think all WAR is created equal.

     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from mudbugger. Show mudbugger's posts

    Re: Red Sox MVP, 2013


    My vote is for Ben Cherrington.

    On this serious side, my vote for MVP this season would have to be Uehara.

     

     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from notin. Show notin's posts

    Re: Red Sox MVP, 2013

    In response to BMav's comment:

    In response to notin's comment:



    I think closer value is massively overstated, and for every 1986 Angels team you mention, there is a 2001 Diamondbacks that managed to overcome just as easily.

     

    And while I have no problem agreeing Rivera is the greatest RP in history, it still does not really ever justify him being an MVP of the Yankees in any season.  I tend to agree with WAR here as it says these guys are not as impactful as many fans think.  Entire BULLPENS combining for 10 or 12 WAR is impressive and important to have, but singling out one guy who thrwe 70 innings as the team MVP seems like throwing glory around for the sake of it.

     

    As for Petttite and Rivera, absolutely Andy was worth 20% more.   Petttite threw 204 innings tha season; Rivera threw 70.  There is a defintely value in throwing 204 innings.  The lesson there is that even the middle rotation guys have a greater impact that the closer.  Why? They have the ball more often.  That's why.  And while Pettitte was not reeling off ace-like stats, he was hardly incompetent on the mound as well.  He managed to pitch well enough to use up the bullpen for 204 innings.  Even if Rivera threw 70 innings and only faced 210 hitters (he faced 259), that is not as valuable as Pettitte throwing 204.  A team only has about 1400 IP in a season, and a pitcher who takes up 14% single-handedly of that workload is important

     

    Damon might be one guy you single out.  But what is the cse for Rivera as MVP of the 2008 Yankees over A-Rod or 20-game winner Mike Mussina.

    [/QUOTE]


    So you disagree with paying closers more then setup guys?

    Did you watch the 1986 playoffs? What was your expectations of those two series after the blown saves?

    How bout the blown save of Rivera in 2004 as an example? Remember how that changed the momentum? I just named 3 examples that were historic in nature involving just the Red Sox in the playoffs. You said you can name examples the other way just as easily. I tend to doubt it. But they do happen. Especially with the help of guys like Schilling and Johnson. Kind of think they were perfectly built to overcome the situation. Let me just say I believe emotion is a huge factor in sports and blowing saves is very emotional and can devistate  a team.

     

    We disagree that solid innings eating is equal to historically great closing, even if 3 times the innings are pitched. But their is something positive to eating innings.

     

    One of the main things I fear the rest of the season is Koji going down. Probably more so then any player. Tazawa or Breslow closing playoff games will likely be disastorous, don't you think? Shoot, I still fear Koji come playoff time. He hasn't dealt with either huge pressure yet[such as Tampa Bay series coming up] or a blown game. And he has been shakey in past playoffs.

     

     

    ARod had a solid season. But 104 runs, 103 RBI's was about 40-50 less then he had the year before, so how good of a season could it have been. And ARod was in his 4th straight season of being a negative player player on defense. His defense stunk. The OPS was a strong .965, but it was still somewhat in the mega juice era. Comparing those facts to one of the best closing seasons in the last 25 years, its no contest for me. Rivera blew just 1 game and had by far his best stat season as a closer.

     

    As for Mussina, he had an excellent season. But it wasn't as good as Rivera's. How bout this for my last point. Rivera only pitched 70 innings. But how many of those innings were in games where the game was in doubt?  In other words, Rivera didn't play that much, but when he did, it almost always mattered. Mussina pitched in 34 games. 12 of those games were decided by atleast 5 runs. Where as Rivera pitched in only 6 games out of 64 decided by 5 runs or more. Thats 35% vs 9%. Add the dominance of those innings by Rivera[316+ vs. 131+], with the mental impact and its easy edge Rivera. Same point goes with ARod's innings and WAR stats. I don't think all WAR is created equal.

    [/QUOTE]


     

    I am not convinced. 

    I remain completely convinced that closers are overrated as a position.   It seems to me your argument is more about how the other players fared against their non-Yankee peers and about Rivera as a reliever, and not really about value of each to the team.   So Rivera had the greatest closing season ever (Debatable, but for the sake or argument, I will agree.)   Does that make him a team MVP?  If Ken Walter had the greatest season ever for a punter in 2003, would he have been more valuable to the Patriots than Tom Brady?

    MLB might agree with you that closers are special based on their pay scales, but as this is a recent agent-induced trend, how far are we from seeing similar arguments for holds?  In fact, the reason teams overpay for a closer is about the only reason we do not see more committee-style bullpens anymore, yet many committees have proven to be as effective as many closers.  And I will go into my frequent rant about how the 2003 committee for Boston was not ineffective because it was a committee, but rather because it was a collection of average to below average pitchers who were often misused. 

    You can argue that owners agree with you on closers.  I can argue that sabermetricians and mathmematicians who study all aspects of the game agree with me, which is why closers have fewer WAR.  This is not a flaw in the way WAR is calculated, and not a flaw in the system where are WAR are not created equal.  This is the result of years of study of the game and the impact of the closer.  I can also argue that the BBWAA agrees with me, which is why so few closers are in Cooperstown.

    While I am sure emotional momentum does exist, I do not believe it can be stated to do so universally with a sweeping generalization.  Some players probably are devastated by the losses you mention.  Others are probably not nearly as devastated, if at all.  These are human beings, and therefore each can respond to any situation differently.

    For all the doubt everyone had about the 1986 Red Sox or the 1986 Angels and their ability to bounce back, didn’t we all have similar doubt about the 1975 Reds after Carbo and Fisk?  Or about the 2008 Rays after they had a 7-0 lead in the seventh inning of a closeout game, and the series still went the distance?  Didn’t it feel inevitable after Pedroia’s home run in game 7 that the Sox would complete the comeback?  And yet here we are.   And really, how devastated were the Angels by Dave Henderson’s home run (not counting Donnie Moore and his extreme emotional instability)?  They came back and tied the game in the ninth and nearly won the game and series outright that very inning, if not for some remarkable bullpen artwork by Shag Crawford to leave the bases loaded.

    I hate the argument that closers always get “the most important outs” and that they always pitch with the game on the line.  This is blatantly not true.  Sure it happens sometimes, but I can never accept that pitching to the 7-8-9 hitters with a 2 or 3 run lead, constitutes the game being on the line.   And that situation constitutes about 20% of all save chances.  In fact, given that the role of a closer has been all but reduced to a ninth inning specialist, does pitching one-third of the time for one inning with a 3-run lead really a situation that requires greatness?   How about a 2 run lead for one inning?  At the end of the day, you are trying to say that Rivera (or any closer) is the most important player on the team because he was able to go one full inning without giving up maybe 3 runs.  Most of the time. 

    And we won’t even get into the advantage of the closer never having to face the same hitter twice in one game and allowing for adjustments.

    As for the set up guys, who is pitching with the game on the line?  The guy who comes in to start the ninth with a 2 or 3 run lead? Or the guy brought into the seventh inning with the bases loaded and the cleanup hitter due up?  Closers are typically the best relief pitchers, but they are not always (re: pretty much never) brought in to those critical at-bats midgame. 

    Bullpens are very, very important, but quantify their contribution using solely the closer (which is done by many fans and even some sportswriters) is a gross understatement.  A team will throw some 1450 innings in a season.  The rotation will take up about 900 of those, leaving about 550 relief innings.  The closer will throw 70-ish, or less than 5 % of his team’s innings.  Less than 2% of the time does the closer have the job of protecting a one-run lead for one inning, his toughest job.  And given their usage, the “tough save,” or save when the pitcher enters with the tying run on base, is all but a thing of the past. 

    In fact, if the Sox 2003 “bullpen by committee” taught us anything, it was that Bill James was absolutely correct when he cited that the most important outs are not always in the ninth.  As bad as the Sox bullpen was that year, during the 54 games before Byung-Hyun Kim was acquired the Sox lost only 3 ninth inning leads.  Three, and they compiled a 1-2 record in those games.   Now, how many seventh and eighth inning leads?  Too many to mention.  (If the Sox had a good bullpen core capable of handling the seventh and eighth innings, Grady might have had a little more confidence in his bullpen and taken Pedro Martinez out a little bit sooner, like right after Giambi homered off him, and then 2003 might have had a much happier ending.)

    Meanwhile, a pitcher who throws 200IP, or about 14% of his team’s innings, is marginalized and deemed less valuable for the crime of not being elite among his peers.   During the off-season, you made a brilliant observation about how the Sox will, and I quote “have a better offense than people realize” using no more data than the pitches per plate appearance from their projected lineup.  You were spot on.  You realized the value of wearing down pitching staffs then, but now you have to see the value from the other side, this time in a pitcher who can throw as many innings Pettitte did that year, and at least see how he was as valuable to his team as someone who was one the mound for barely one-third of the amount of time he was.

    If you want to argue that Rivera is the greatest relief pitcher in history, it is going to be tough.  Mostly because no one will argue with you about that.   But if you are going to argue that he was ever the Yankee team MVP, or that any closer anywhere should be, it is difficult to make that argument convincing to me.

     

     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from BMav. Show BMav's posts

    Re: Red Sox MVP, 2013

    In response to notin's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    I agree on a number of points Notin. The 2003 pen sucked anyway you cut it. A bullpen by committee could work under "certain circumstances". Screwed up phyche's don't always happen, nothing is absolute. I would in "certain circumstances" bring a closer in as early as the 6th or 7th inning. And middle relievers can be even more valuable then closers as I stated in the off season that Koji was the 4th best reliever in baseball inspite of only having 1 save the last two seasons.

    Now to the disagreements starting with my "certain circumstances" above. I would bring a closer in IF we had something like a 3 run lead, bases loaded, nobody out, great right handed hitter up and it was a key game. However, I would have to already have spoken with Koji before hand and he would have to have been prepared mentally for such a situation. And another reliever would have to be talked to about the possibility and closing the game out before the game.

    Which gets to the other "certain circumstances", closer by committee. The only way I do it is if I have a bunch of "closer" quality arms. And if they all had the makeup and toughness to handle playoff losses, and if they were all very different and were stronger against certain hitters so as to matchup better. However, this would be a perfect storm that rarely happens. The main reason that bullpens by committee rarely happen is because of that. And the next reason is that pitchers like routines. Knowing rolls has some benefits. Which is why I would have to warn Koji in advance about the possibility of using him in the 7th inning above.

    I think the main problem with Jamesianism is the "human" factor. Players are people, not numbers. Not every human is cut out to close a playoff game. See Danial Bard as a likely example. And not every closer situation is equal. Sox and Yankees are different then Seattle and Miami situations.
     
    How is WAR calculated? Would 3 perfect innings of relief in a 10 nothing blowout get equal WAR to a closer being perfect in 3 straight 1 runs saves? I thought it did. If so, that is a major problem with WAR.

     

     

     

    Notin------"""you are trying to say that Rivera (or any closer) is the most important player on the team because he was able to go one full inning without giving up maybe 3 runs.  Most of the time."""

    If by most of the time you mean 39-40 times and if the rest of the team didn't play all that great, yes, thats what I am saying.

     

     

     

    Notin------"""Less than 2% of the time does the closer have the job of protecting a one-run lead for one inning, his toughest job."""

    Koji has done it 4 straight games with ease. Its fun and makes things so much easier knowing we have Koji in the 9th inning instead of the other two guys we had.

     

     

     

     

     
    BBWAA agrees with you? Are you sure about that? There are 5 closers put in the Hall of Fame the last 30 years. According to your argument, there would be none. Thats 5 guys not capable of EVER being their teams MVP in any season getting into the entire sports place of honor where only 1-3 guys a year get in each year. Seems to me they are on my side.

    You came up with some good points on the comeback stories and momentum shifts, however none were 9th inning blown saves.

    Punters equivelant to closers? Ouch. Can't agree.

    Nice talking with you Notin on this subject. Very interesting. And be prepared to go down in your fantasy league.:)




     

     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from notin. Show notin's posts

    Re: Red Sox MVP, 2013

    If you happen to be referring to the BDC2013 Fantasy League, I have been floundering for weeks now.  That ship is prepared to sink.  But hey, it was never a good team and wasn't called "The Overachievers" by accident...

     

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