Red Sox OF in 2012?

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from JB-3. Show JB-3's posts

    Red Sox OF in 2012?

    Admittedly it's a little early to start looking towards next year for the casual observer, but many assumptions have flown out the window so far with regards to the 2012 OF.  LF and CF seem locked up with Crawford and Ells.  At one point it was at least possible that Ells could be traded following this season, but now it would create even more problems than it could fix unless the player the Sox received was a Colby Rasmus/Justin Upton type (obviously Ells wouldn't be the only player involved), still this hardly seems like a possibility so let's assume that Ells is a member of the Boston Red Sox in 2012, manning CF.  The big question is who will be starting in RF.

    The Contenders:

    Ryan Kalish - Kalish was the odds on favorite to win this job either mid-way through 2011 or to start 2012 once Drew's deal is up.  He is currently rehabbing a torn labrum and will likely require surgery after this season, if not sooner.  I can't see the Sox throwing him into the starting RF role coming off of surgery.  He would likely spend significant time in the minors in 2012 prior to a call up.

    Juan Carlos (JC) Linares - JC quickly became a fan favorite in spring training.  He has yet to show the plate discipline preferred by the Red Sox while in the minor leagues, although he showed good discipline in Cuba.  JC started to make strides in this respect in 2011 drawing 4 walks in 17 games (compared to 1 walk in 17 AFL games and 0 walks in 13 AA games in 2010).  With a solid 2011, JC may have had a chance to be a bridge to Kalish in 2012, dropping into a 4th OF role once Kalish was promoted, but JC will now miss the rest of the 2011 season following ankle surgery.

    Josh Reddick - The much hyped OF has been consistently inconsistent at AAA, although his current production looks promising with 9 HR's on the young season and a line of .252/.349/.543 while showing improved patience at the plate (20 BB's to 24 K's in 33 games.  Is this just another hot streak for Reddick, or has he finally figured things out?  If he's finally figured things out, he has potential to be a major contributor in 2012.

    Yamaico Navarro - An infielder throughout his time with the Red Sox organization, he had recently moved to the OF prior to hitting the DL with a strained oblique.  He had been mashing this year with a line of .329/.436/.612 in 23 games.  I haven't seen enough of him in the OF to judge how well he would do in RF at Fenway, but he could be an intriguing option going forward as a utility player with his ability to play all over the infield and potentially in the OF.  He could potentially become a stop-gap RF for 2012, but that depends heavily on his defensive adjustment to the OF in 2011.

    Honorable mention - Alex Hassan and Che-Hsuan Lin.

    Potential FA targets:

    There aren't many good fits on the FA market for the Sox if they look to go that route.  

    JD Drew - Obviously we know what we would be getting with Drew, but there are 2 major questions:  1, would 1 year be enough to bring him back?  2, Is he going to retire?  (He has already hinted at retirement after the season)

    Carlos Beltran - He could be an intriguing possibility on a 1 year deal, especially if he's only being relied on for half of the year.

    Aside from those two options, I don't see much in the way of FA's who would sign a 1 year deal and be effective for Boston.  Obviously this could change as the season progresses (David DeJesus may be looking for a pillow contract if he continues to underperform in Oakland).


    Thoughts?
     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from SoxPatsCelts1988. Show SoxPatsCelts1988's posts

    Re: Red Sox OF in 2012?

    Kalish is the guy unless this injury resurfaces to be more serious than originally. 
     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from JB-3. Show JB-3's posts

    Re: Red Sox OF in 2012?

    In Response to Re: Red Sox OF in 2012?:
    [QUOTE]Kalish is the guy unless this injury resurfaces to be more serious than originally. 
    Posted by SoxPatsCelts1988[/QUOTE]

    Since he already will need surgery on it how much more serious do you suspect it will get?

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from Boomerangsdotcom. Show Boomerangsdotcom's posts

    Re: Red Sox OF in 2012?

    Hassan might be more than an honorable mention if he keeps hitting. He has the arm for RF and is hitting around .370 in AA ball.

    Brentz might be the guy long term, hitting .373 last I looked with excellent OPS.

    Can't forget Brandon Jacobs either. Of course Jacobs and Brentz are still down in A ball and won't be in mlb next year but the way they are htting they may well be in AA ball by year end.

    I'd like to see them go with a youngster next year even if no one is totally ready. If I had to chose right now I'd go with Reddick. Would he be that much worse than the .237 average will little power we are getting from Drew now in over 100 AB. Eventually one or more of these guys can step into that slot. 
     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from StatsFromLouie. Show StatsFromLouie's posts

    Re: Red Sox OF in 2012?

    Isn't the only reason Navarro was playing the OF because all of your OF keep getting injured? Can't believe you are stupid enough to consider him a real option.
     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from redsoxdirtdog. Show redsoxdirtdog's posts

    Re: Red Sox OF in 2012?

    Kalish???  Lefty??
     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from BurritoT. Show BurritoT's posts

    Re: Red Sox OF in 2012?

    I am finally under the full impression that they signed Crawford in order to let Elles go.  You will not see Elles sign a new deal here - he will either be traded or left to walk.
     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from JB-3. Show JB-3's posts

    Re: Red Sox OF in 2012?

    In Response to Re: Red Sox OF in 2012?:
    [QUOTE]Kalish???  Lefty??
    Posted by redsoxdirtdog[/QUOTE]
    Yes...... what's your point?
     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from JB-3. Show JB-3's posts

    Re: Red Sox OF in 2012?

    In Response to Re: Red Sox OF in 2012?:
    [QUOTE]Isn't the only reason Navarro was playing the OF because all of your OF keep getting injured? Can't believe you are stupid enough to consider him a real option.
    Posted by StatsFromLouie[/QUOTE]

    I fully disclaimed that by saying that it depends on what he shows in the field during this season.  He wouldn't be the first player to transition to the OF at AAA to make the bigs.  If he keeps hitting, he's going to force his way up to MLB.
     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from JB-3. Show JB-3's posts

    Re: Red Sox OF in 2012?

    In Response to Re: Red Sox OF in 2012?:
    [QUOTE]I am finally under the full impression that they signed Crawford in order to let Elles go.  You will not see Elles sign a new deal here - he will either be traded or left to walk.
    Posted by BurritoT[/QUOTE]
    Except that he's arb eligible at relatively cheap money (likely around the $5M mark next season).  Does there appear to be a better option at this point for the 2012 season?  If so, who do you have in mind I'd love to discuss.
     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from JB-3. Show JB-3's posts

    Re: Red Sox OF in 2012?

    In Response to Re: Red Sox OF in 2012?:
    [QUOTE]Hassan might be more than an honorable mention if he keeps hitting. He has the arm for RF and is hitting around .370 in AA ball. Brentz might be the guy long term, hitting .373 last I looked with excellent OPS. Can't forget Brandon Jacobs either. Of course Jacobs and Brentz are still down in A ball and won't be in mlb next year but the way they are htting they may well be in AA ball by year end. I'd like to see them go with a youngster next year even if no one is totally ready. If I had to chose right now I'd go with Reddick. Would he be that much worse than the .237 average will little power we are getting from Drew now in over 100 AB. Eventually one or more of these guys can step into that slot. 
    Posted by Boomerangsdotcom[/QUOTE]

    Nice post Boom,

    The reason that I left Hassan as an honorable mention is that while the potential is certainly there, I don't think he has enough experience above A ball to contribute at the MLB level in 2012.  Other than his 3 game, 3 AB sample in AAA last year, he had never played above A ball going into this season.  Maybe in 2013 he'll have a chance to contribute.

    I do love Jacobs and Brentz, but as you mentioned, they have never played above A ball.  It will be interesting to see how they continue to develop and they could help us down the line (2014+).

    I agree at this point Reddick looks like the man for the job assuming he doesn't fall back into his old habbits.  He has big power and very good range in the OF.  I do think that people will miss JD Drew if someone like Reddick comes up because they will finally appreciate Drew's patience at the plate.  Reddick has not shows a knack for being patient (until this year).  Hopefully he can keep up this pace for the 2011 season.
     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from BurritoT. Show BurritoT's posts

    Re: Red Sox OF in 2012?

    Obviously Elles performance will drive arbitration - I can see him being traded (a big trade)..... too many questions surrounded him last season and we know Boras will want to drive the price up. 

    Likely one of the prospects does step-up and I believe the team wants to see who will and on what level so I can't see them signing another big OF bat prior to 2013.

    For 2012 I see RF opening up for the prospects to get some time to prove themselves, Elles taking arbitration, and the Sox signing a replacement for Cameron.

    Depending on how it all shakes out Elles will be moved out sometime between summer of 2012 and the winter of 12-13.

    Just my wild guess - personally I am and Elles fan - this isn't an anti-Elles biased scenario.

    Later note - JB I just absorbed your mention of Beltran who is healthy again. I do not believe Ortiz will be back (though who can say) and that would open up a DH/RF opportunity for a veteran.

    That really leaves RF as the biggest question:  rookies, aging veteran, or a combo of the two.  Elles and Crawford will start 2012 in CF and LF respectively.
     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from parhunter1. Show parhunter1's posts

    Re: Red Sox OF in 2012?

    Interesting discussion.  I do think Ellsbury is trade bait for a RH hitting OFer.

    I still like Kalish, but cannot see both Reddick and Kalish in the OF with Crawford.  The Sox need a power bat out there, and they need a RH bat out there.  Reddick could be the power bat, but Kalish and Ellsbury would be odd men out.

    My guess is that Reddick is the one traded, not Kalish.  But I also expect to see Reddick go on to have a good career in the MLs.

    As for Cameron.  It seems, with an admittedly small sample size, that he is NOT cut out to be a productive part-time player.  My guess is he is traded by July, possibly for some relief depth or in a trade for a catcher.  As for MacDonald, he was a great story last season, but I have seen enough of his mediocre play.  Caonnot get rid of both Cameron and MacDonald unless Navarro and another RH-hitting outfielder can be found.

    Here is a possibility:  Navarro comes up when he is healthy (replacing Iglesias/Scutaro).  Suctaro and Cameron are traded, and the Sox carry a third catcher.  Hopefully Navarro would get some time in the OF and MacDonald would remain the 5th OF option.

     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from JB-3. Show JB-3's posts

    Re: Red Sox OF in 2012?

    In Response to Re: Red Sox OF in 2012?:
    [QUOTE]Obviously Elles performance will drive arbitration - I can see him being traded (a big trade)..... too many questions surrounded him last season and we know Boras will want to drive the price up.
    Posted by BurritoT[/QUOTE]

    Naturally, you are correct that Ells' performance will drive his arb award, but I can't see him getting a much larger raise than the Astros' Michael Bourne (another speedster CF).  They both had the same salaries after their first year of arb eligibility ($2.4M).  Bourne is currently making $4.4M after being arb eligible a second time this past off-season.  The one thing that could bump Ells higher is his power numbers which are showing up this year.  Even so, I believe that the difference in the breadth of work will negate some of the added value of his power numbers, resulting in a salary of about $5M (still exceeding Bourne's total, but not by very much).

    I could certainly see Ells being traded in you're timeframe, although I suspect the 2012-2013 offseason would be most likely.  With the acquiring team ideally signing him to a near market value extension (difficult with Boras, but not impossible).
     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from JB-3. Show JB-3's posts

    Re: Red Sox OF in 2012?

    In Response to Re: Red Sox OF in 2012?:
    [QUOTE]Interesting discussion.  I do think Ellsbury is trade bait for a RH hitting OFer. I still like Kalish, but cannot see both Reddick and Kalish in the OF with Crawford.  The Sox need a power bat out there, and they need a RH bat out there.  Reddick could be the power bat, but Kalish and Ellsbury would be odd men out. My guess is that Reddick is the one traded, not Kalish.  But I also expect to see Reddick go on to have a good career in the MLs. As for Cameron.  It seems, with an admittedly small sample size, that he is NOT cut out to be a productive part-time player.  My guess is he is traded by July, possibly for some relief depth or in a trade for a catcher.  As for MacDonald, he was a great story last season, but I have seen enough of his mediocre play.  Caonnot get rid of both Cameron and MacDonald unless Navarro and another RH-hitting outfielder can be found. Here is a possibility:  Navarro comes up when he is healthy (replacing Iglesias/Scutaro).  Suctaro and Cameron are traded, and the Sox carry a third catcher.  Hopefully Navarro would get some time in the OF and MacDonald would remain the 5th OF option.
    Posted by parhunter1[/QUOTE]

    Overall I agree with you, but what value would a 3rd  catcher really provide?  There's a reason that it isn't done around the majors (until September).  I think an additional IF would likely be the role filled to provide much needed depth (currently just 1 backup IF for 4 spots.)

     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from fivekatz. Show fivekatz's posts

    Re: Red Sox OF in 2012?

    Few thoughts:

    Ellsbury will likely have a similar RS career path to Papelbon's, year-to-year arbitration and the moment of decision after the walk year. It is how Boras operates and from the RS perspective, if you can't lock up at a discount, year to year isn't a bad way to fly. If somebody falls out of bed for Ellsbury, they will trade him but beyond that it isn't a bad situation going year-to-year. Honestly I think in hindsight the RS feel that "ribgate" got way out of hand and that they had their role in that. They are way past it I think.

    If he keeps hitting like he is, I think Ortiz does come back to the RS. I think he likes it here and would like to finish his career here and that nobody is going to break the bank to get him, allowing the RS to sign a one year slightly too high deal with him.

    I wouldn't be surprised to see Navaro in the OF actually. Kalish's injury pretty much insures he isn't going to kick down the door and Navaro at AAA level is a RH bat with a near .800 OPS last year and so far he has hit better at AAA than he did at AA. And he is a RH bat in a LH OF. He does share Reddick's lack of selectivity at the plate.

    Reddick is an interesting case as he appears to have improved in his approach at the plate. In about 150 PAs this season he has 20 BB versus last season he had 25 BB in over 480 PAs. In this organization that improvement is probably critical to get to the next level.

    It's very early of course but I think one look at how the contracts for A-Gon and CC were structured that money for Cameron and Drew and likely Scutaro is already allocated for 2012.


     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from expitch. Show expitch's posts

    Re: Red Sox OF in 2012?

    If Navarro is thought good enough to play the outfield, chances are that McDonald will be gone.  Since Navarro can also be the utility IF, the Sox could also try to move Scutaro. Neither McDonald nor Scutaro is doing this club much good. And Iglesias is always available.
    I'm a little surprised that so many people had Kalish written in for RF in 2012. He hasn't set the world on fire when he's played in Boston.  If Reddick continues to have the kind of season he's started, he has to be considered at least a candidate for RF next season.  He could see some time in Boston this year.
    The Sox would probably like to lay hands on a power RH bat for the OF, but, as was pointed out above, the pickings are slim. The club may just wait for someone on the farm to blossom.
    Even if Ortiz has a good year, it's still possible that he and Boston won't be able to make a deal. If that happens, maybe Youk goes to DH and Lowrie to third. Maybe. Unless Ortiz puts up power numbers, Theo will probably be reluctant to go even "a little too high," not if he thinks he can get equal or better production from Youk in the role. 
    Of course, if Iglesias can't hit his hat size, Lowrie and Youk may stay right where they are.  
    I agree with katz that "ribgate" was blown out of proportion and now is probably a dead issue.  What happens to and with Ellsbury remains to be seen. But if he continues hitting and stealing bases and improves his OBP, why would the Sox trade him unless the club strikes gold?  And how likely is that?  A power RH Ofer? Who? A frontline catcher? Who? Ellsbury may be coming into his prime -- and with a little unexpected pop.  Players with his skill set are not easy to come by.  Right, questions have been raised about his defense, but he's hardly a liability out there.  And he may be getting a bum rap based upon the far from reliable ( for now ) defensive metrics.  
    In the meantime, there is much work ahead in 2011.
     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Red Sox OF in 2012?

    My guess:

    LF: Crawford/pick up a RH'd low cost FA
    CF: Ellsbury/Linares
    RF: Kalish/Reddick
     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from zack5042. Show zack5042's posts

    Re: Red Sox OF in 2012?

    You forgot Ryan Westmoreland! xD
     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from Boomerangsdotcom. Show Boomerangsdotcom's posts

    Re: Red Sox OF in 2012?

    I don't get the whole Navarro in the OF scenario. The guy projects to me as a utility infielder mainly. I think they are giving him some OF time to make him even more useful. I would just come out and say it. NO WAY he's is our RF next year, no matter how well he hits in AAA ball this year. Look at the total situation. Enough speed for our RF? No. Enough pop in his bat? No. Enough OF experience? No. It's not going to happen.

    There is no clear solution but why would we want to trade one of our best players ( Ellsbury ) when we already are projected to be short in the OF next year? Ellsbury could step in and be decent overall in RF for us. He had a great UZR/150 when he's played there before and his speed is a huge advantage in RF. We wouldn't get the strong arm but how often do we through guys out at 3rd anyway? I think he would be solid in RF. Almost definitely better overall than Drew even defensively, as good as he has been for us.

    But then what do we do in CF. I don't see Ellsbury getting traded! It would take a great deal for us to pull that trigger next year.
     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from fivekatz. Show fivekatz's posts

    Re: Red Sox OF in 2012?

    Ex,

    My guess on Ortiz is based on his quick start and improvement versus LH pitching. As the weather warms up I think the HRs will come and that it is likely that Ortiz will post 30 HR, 100 plus RBI and an OPS that will gawdy. Whether a team will appear willing to give Ortiz multiple years is a question but if it is a one year contract with an option I think the RS have a big advantage and would have plenty of incentive to make a deal.

    My guess is that Iggy will incubate for one more year in AAA beacuse his defense is special enough to spend the time building his offensive skill sets in a situation more conducive to his development than being the starting SS for the Boston Red Sox. But who knows.

    I personally agree with your take and I think the perception of Ellsbury in disussions on this board has become at least a little tainted by the blizzard of threads on BDC about him. His career on 162 game average says he is a .344 OBP hitter with a .753 OPS and that OPS does not reflect over 162 he steals over 50 bases with a 80%+ success rate. He is not a GG CF but the discussions about his D are over blown. That is a nice player to have on your roster no matter how many threads are created about him to the contrary.

    As far as 2012 I do think that a lot of guys are in the minors are vying for positions in the RS OF in 2012 because the market in FA is pretty baron and the RS shot their big ammunition gettin A-Gon but that is a hard thing to call in May. There is a lot of baseball to be played and unprojected events (just like Kalish's injury) are yet to have played out.

    Just my takes  
     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from Boomerangsdotcom. Show Boomerangsdotcom's posts

    Re: Red Sox OF in 2012?

    I almost think they should just operate on Kalish and be done with it. Get him healthy for next year. That's if he definitely is going to need an operation.
     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from expitch. Show expitch's posts

    Re: Red Sox OF in 2012?

    In Response to Re: Red Sox OF in 2012?:
    [QUOTE]Ex, My guess on Ortiz is based on his quick start and improvement versus LH pitching. As the weather warms up I think the HRs will come and that it is likely that Ortiz will post 30 HR, 100 plus RBI and an OPS that will gawdy. Whether a team will appear willing to give Ortiz multiple years is a question but if it is a one year contract with an option I think the RS have a big advantage and would have plenty of incentive to make a deal. My guess is that Iggy will incubate for one more year in AAA beacuse his defense is special enough to spend the time building his offensive skill sets in a situation more conducive to his development than being the starting SS for the Boston Red Sox. But who knows. I personally agree with your take and I think the perception of Ellsbury in disussions on this board has become at least a little tainted by the blizzard of threads on BDC about him. His career on 162 game average says he is a .344 OBP hitter with a .753 OPS and that OPS does not reflect over 162 he steals over 50 bases with a 80%+ success rate. He is not a GG CF but the discussions about his D are over blown. That is a nice player to have on your roster no matter how many threads are created about him to the contrary. As far as 2012 I do think that a lot of guys are in the minors are vying for positions in the RS OF in 2012 because the market in FA is pretty baron and the RS shot their big ammunition gettin A-Gon but that is a hard thing to call in May. There is a lot of baseball to be played and unprojected events (just like Kalish's injury) are yet to have played out. Just my takes  
    Posted by fivekatz[/QUOTE]
    Nothing to argue with here.

     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from trouts. Show trouts's posts

    Re: Red Sox OF in 2012?

     Some folks have posted that we're gonna miss Drew. I'm certainly not one of them. At this point in the season after 104 at-bats Drew has 8 rbis and 2 homers. Even if Drew gets 500 at-bats this season (which is unlikely, given that a hangnail may well sideline the guy!) that figures out to be 40 rbis and 10 home runs---all that for 14 million bucks! As for his fabled patience at the plate, I'm tired of watching him take called 3rd strikes on pitches that he should be able to foul off or take to left.
     
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    Re: Red Sox OF in 2012?

    In Response to Re: Red Sox OF in 2012?:
    [QUOTE]I think the roster is going to shake up a bit in 2012.  I used to think Lowrie would be gone, because he is best suited to 2B, but Scutaro has not looked good this year, and Iglesias looks much further away than first expected, so I think the Sox hold onto Lowrie as the starting SS until somebody else really steps up.  If Lowrie struggles, though, Navarro could be that guy.   I think the Navarro move to the outfield was due to 1) How well Middlebrooks is playing at AA and 2) grooming him for the super-sub position at the big league level. I think Ellsbury is gone - for either a RH outfield bat, or a high-ceiling pitching prospect.  Colby Rasmus or Jenrry Mejia look like possible trade candidates. I'd be fine with an OF of Rasmus, Crawford, Kalish & Reddick.  The rookies could split time in right - maybe retain Mike Cameron for another year as the 5th OF (at a much lower salary obviously). Another possibility is to trade some of our OF prospects to Pittsburgh for Andrew McCutchen.  He's got the arm for right, and adds even more speed, if the Sox do deal Ellsbury. If all else fails, I wouldn't mind seeing Drew come back for another year or two.  I know it's not a popular position these days, but he's the kind of player you're going to miss when he's gone.
    Posted by slomag[/QUOTE]
    I doubt St. Louis will be trading Colby Rasmus, a cost-controlled centerfielder with a far higher upside than Jacoby Ellsbury, who is three years older than Rasmus. While Ellsbury has rebounded nicely from his disappointing 2010 season to post a 1.0 WAR* so far this season, Rasmus has nearly doubled that performance with a 1.9 WAR on the strength of a .311 batting average, .397 on-base percentage, .867 OPS and a positive UZR.

    Rasmus remains under his team's control for three arbitraition years while Ellsbury remains under his team's control for only two years.

    Ellsbury is a nice player to have, but he is not in the same league as a Colby Rasmus.

    And, by the way, Colby Rasmus hits and throws lefthanded.

    * Wins Above Replacement as reported at FanGraphs
     
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