Red Sox Offense On Pace to be More Productive Than 2007 (And Other Halfway Notes)

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from royf19. Show royf19's posts

    Red Sox Offense On Pace to be More Productive Than 2007 (And Other Halfway Notes)

    After 81 games, the Red Sox are on pace for ...

    -- 96 wins, which would be the most since 2007.

    -- 172 home runs, which would be five more than last year, one less than in 2008 and six more than 2007.

    -- 834 runs, which is 100 more than last year and also more runs than in 2010 and just 11 less than 2009.

    -- 356 doubles, which is more than 2012, 2011, 2009, 2008, 2007, 2006, 2005.

    -- 570 extra-base hits, which is more than 2007, 2008, 2012 and just two less than 2009.

     

    As for players, here is what selected players are on pace for:

    -- David Ortiz: 32 HR, 114 RBI, .319 BA.

    -- Mike Napoli: 18 HR, 106 RBI, .264 BA.

    -- Daniel Nava: 20 HR, 98 RBI, .281 BA.

    -- Dustin Pedroia: 10 HR, 94 RBI, .318 BA.

    -- Jarrod Saltalamacchia 16 HR, 60 RBI, .261 BA.

    -- Jon Lester: 16-8

    -- Clay Buchholz 18-0

     

    Of course, Buchholz isn't going to 18-0, it's just fun to look. Ortiz's projections are actually more if you do it for games played. I just did it the easy way -- take 81-game stats and multiply by two.

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from TheExaminer. Show TheExaminer's posts

    Re: Red Sox Offense On Pace to be More Productive Than 2007 (And Other Halfway Notes)

    It will happen if the pitching holds up.

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from ZILLAGOD. Show ZILLAGOD's posts

    Re: Red Sox Offense On Pace to be More Productive Than 2007 (And Other Halfway Notes)


    I think in 2011 they were also on pace for a 1st place finish. Then came the chicken and beer.

    "There are lots of people who mistake their imagination for their memory.-Josh Billings

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from ThefourBs. Show ThefourBs's posts

    Re: Red Sox Offense On Pace to be More Productive Than 2007 (And Other Halfway Notes)

    In response to ZILLAGOD's comment:


    I think in 2011 they were also on pace for a 1st place finish. Then came the chicken and beer.

    "There are lots of people who mistake their imagination for their memory.-Josh Billings




    Thanks Capt Obvious.

    We had all forgotten about that.

     

    Would you prefer that they were on pace for a last place finish, like last year?

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedSoxKimmi. Show RedSoxKimmi's posts

    Re: Red Sox Offense On Pace to be More Productive Than 2007 (And Other Halfway Notes)

    There's still a lot of ball to be played, and obviously, nothing has been decided yet. The Sox could collapse, as they did in 2011.  However, I can't see anything like that happening with this team.  I don't see any sense of entitlement.  I don't see them becoming complacent.

    I see a group of guys who love to play the game and who respond very well to adversity.  They have done a great job of bouncing back after tough losses, and a great job of picking each other up.   That still doesn't insure that they'll make the playoffs, but I feel really good about their chances.

    To me, they look like a winning ball club.

     

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedSoxKimmi. Show RedSoxKimmi's posts

    Re: Red Sox Offense On Pace to be More Productive Than 2007 (And Other Halfway Notes)

    Also, their record is exactly what their Pythagorean W-L says it should be. Their record is indicative of the way they've been playing, which bodes well for the second half. 

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from pumpsie-green. Show pumpsie-green's posts

    Re: Red Sox Offense On Pace to be More Productive Than 2007 (And Other Halfway Notes)

    In response to royf19's comment:

    After 81 games, the Red Sox are on pace for ...

    -- 96 wins, which would be the most since 2007.

    -- 172 home runs, which would be five more than last year, one less than in 2008 and six more than 2007.

    -- 834 runs, which is 100 more than last year and also more runs than in 2010 and just 11 less than 2009.

    -- 356 doubles, which is more than 2012, 2011, 2009, 2008, 2007, 2006, 2005.

    -- 570 extra-base hits, which is more than 2007, 2008, 2012 and just two less than 2009.

     

    As for players, here is what selected players are on pace for:

    -- David Ortiz: 32 HR, 114 RBI, .319 BA.

    -- Mike Napoli: 18 HR, 106 RBI, .264 BA.

    -- Daniel Nava: 20 HR, 98 RBI, .281 BA.

    -- Dustin Pedroia: 10 HR, 94 RBI, .318 BA.

    -- Jarrod Saltalamacchia 16 HR, 60 RBI, .261 BA.

    -- Jon Lester: 16-8

    -- Clay Buchholz 18-0

     

    Of course, Buchholz isn't going to 18-0, it's just fun to look. Ortiz's projections are actually more if you do it for games played. I just did it the easy way -- take 81-game stats and multiply by two.



    In 2007 the Red Sox were FIRST in the AL in ERA. This year they are SEVENTH so far. Unless that improves we will have a very difficult time making the playoffs, let alone going deep into them.

     
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  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from royf19. Show royf19's posts

    Re: Red Sox Offense On Pace to be More Productive Than 2007 (And Other Halfway Notes)

    In response to ZILLAGOD's comment:


    I think in 2011 they were also on pace for a 1st place finish. Then came the chicken and beer.

    "There are lots of people who mistake their imagination for their memory.-Josh Billings



    C'mon Z, you're better than this.

    Obviously, anything can happen in the second half. It's rare -- if ever -- when first-half and second-half numbers for a player or team in any statistical category are equal. The only point is to put a little perspective on how well the team and some of the players are playing. Extending their stats over the entire season adds that perspective.

    Right off the bat, the homers could drop if Middlebrooks doesn't come back. Iggy isn't going to hit nine homers in the second half. On the other hand, maybe Napoli or Ellsbury or someone else will surpass their first-half HR totals in the second half than in the first.

    This will be true up and down the line. Some might do better in the second half, others will slump. So we'll see what happens.

     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from royf19. Show royf19's posts

    Re: Red Sox Offense On Pace to be More Productive Than 2007 (And Other Halfway Notes)

    In response to pumpsie-green's comment:

    In response to royf19's comment:

     

    After 81 games, the Red Sox are on pace for ...

    -- 96 wins, which would be the most since 2007.

    -- 172 home runs, which would be five more than last year, one less than in 2008 and six more than 2007.

    -- 834 runs, which is 100 more than last year and also more runs than in 2010 and just 11 less than 2009.

    -- 356 doubles, which is more than 2012, 2011, 2009, 2008, 2007, 2006, 2005.

    -- 570 extra-base hits, which is more than 2007, 2008, 2012 and just two less than 2009.

     

    As for players, here is what selected players are on pace for:

    -- David Ortiz: 32 HR, 114 RBI, .319 BA.

    -- Mike Napoli: 18 HR, 106 RBI, .264 BA.

    -- Daniel Nava: 20 HR, 98 RBI, .281 BA.

    -- Dustin Pedroia: 10 HR, 94 RBI, .318 BA.

    -- Jarrod Saltalamacchia 16 HR, 60 RBI, .261 BA.

    -- Jon Lester: 16-8

    -- Clay Buchholz 18-0

     

    Of course, Buchholz isn't going to 18-0, it's just fun to look. Ortiz's projections are actually more if you do it for games played. I just did it the easy way -- take 81-game stats and multiply by two.

     



    In 2007 the Red Sox were FIRST in the AL in ERA. This year they are SEVENTH so far. Unless that improves we will have a very difficult time making the playoffs, let alone going deep into them.

     



    Don't really know what this has to do with my post. I never said this team was better than 2007.  I was just putting into perspective how productive the team has been and how certain players have been. 

    But go on -- on every thread keep stating what the team's ERA is, regardless if it has anything to do with the topic at hand. If it makes you feel any better -- go for it.

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from BosoxJoe5. Show BosoxJoe5's posts

    Re: Red Sox Offense On Pace to be More Productive Than 2007 (And Other Halfway Notes)

    In response to crimsonandclover's comment:

    Total raw numbers comparisons don't reveal just how inferior this team is, offensively, to the 2007 team. Defensively, this team is also inferior to the 2007 team. A 3rd place finish is more likely than a playoff win.



    Oh softy, no facts just opinions.

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from crazyworldoftroybrown. Show crazyworldoftroybrown's posts

    Re: Red Sox Offense On Pace to be More Productive Than 2007 (And Other Halfway Notes)

    Just keep grinding and playing smart, the dog days are coming. Cant hate this team, expectations before season, and now, has us feeling pretty good.
    No hate here, just the ups and downs of a long season.

     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from pumpsie-green. Show pumpsie-green's posts

    Re: Red Sox Offense On Pace to be More Productive Than 2007 (And Other Halfway Notes)

    In response to royf19's comment:

    In response to pumpsie-green's comment:

     

    In response to royf19's comment:

     

     

    After 81 games, the Red Sox are on pace for ...

    -- 96 wins, which would be the most since 2007.

    -- 172 home runs, which would be five more than last year, one less than in 2008 and six more than 2007.

    -- 834 runs, which is 100 more than last year and also more runs than in 2010 and just 11 less than 2009.

    -- 356 doubles, which is more than 2012, 2011, 2009, 2008, 2007, 2006, 2005.

    -- 570 extra-base hits, which is more than 2007, 2008, 2012 and just two less than 2009.

     

    As for players, here is what selected players are on pace for:

    -- David Ortiz: 32 HR, 114 RBI, .319 BA.

    -- Mike Napoli: 18 HR, 106 RBI, .264 BA.

    -- Daniel Nava: 20 HR, 98 RBI, .281 BA.

    -- Dustin Pedroia: 10 HR, 94 RBI, .318 BA.

    -- Jarrod Saltalamacchia 16 HR, 60 RBI, .261 BA.

    -- Jon Lester: 16-8

    -- Clay Buchholz 18-0

     

    Of course, Buchholz isn't going to 18-0, it's just fun to look. Ortiz's projections are actually more if you do it for games played. I just did it the easy way -- take 81-game stats and multiply by two.

     

     



    In 2007 the Red Sox were FIRST in the AL in ERA. This year they are SEVENTH so far. Unless that improves we will have a very difficult time making the playoffs, let alone going deep into them.

     

     

     



    Don't really know what this has to do with my post. I never said this team was better than 2007.  I was just putting into perspective how productive the team has been and how certain players have been. 

     

    But go on -- on every thread keep stating what the team's ERA is, regardless if it has anything to do with the topic at hand. If it makes you feel any better -- go for it.



    Here is what it has to do with your post: you do not make the playoffs or win a ring (isn't that really the goal?) by offense alone. We got 875 runs in 2011 and we all know how far that got us. So yeah, I am going to keep harping on the pitching because without a significant improvement in that area we cannot achieve our goal. If you want to keep pointing out how great our offense is, go right ahead. It is very good.

     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from ZILLAGOD. Show ZILLAGOD's posts

    Re: Red Sox Offense On Pace to be More Productive Than 2007 (And Other Halfway Notes)

    Hey roy...sorry , I just hate "on pace" stats, threads and discussions.

    Here are a few reasons why:

    In NASCAR, the driver that sits on the pole doesn't always win, the driver that leads at halfway rarely wins, this is why they run the whole race. So, NASCAR T.V. announcers tend to refrian from saying "he's on pace to finish in first place by two laps", mainly because the car can blow an engine or get caught up in a wreck.

    Go buy a Lottery ticket. If you get extremely lucky and get two winners in one day....are you on pace to have 730 winning tickets this year?....I don't think so.

    Say Lackey strikes out two batters in the 1st inning of a game. He would be "on pace" to strike out 18 batters in that game( if he pitched all 9 innings...which doesn't happen much anymore), even so, he'd be on pace to strike out 12 batters in his normal 6 inning stint.....not likely.

    Currently 5 guys in the AL are "on pace" to hit over 40 homeruns ( Davis, Cabrera, Encarnacion, Dunn and Cruz) ...how many do you think will keep up that pace?

    Back about 20 years ago , I was making a really good income , with lots fewer expenses. I was likely on pace to be a millionaire ( at some point in my life), I bought a house, had to change jobs, and the banks don't pay the same interest they paid back in 1990. Needless to say , I fell off that pace and never came close to even half a million.

     

    "There are lots of people who mistake their imagination for their memory.-Josh Billings

     
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  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Red Sox Offense On Pace to be More Productive Than 2007 (And Other Halfway Notes)

    It's the balance that is carrying us...

    Detroit has two positions with player hitting under .700 (OPS). The Sox have none. The second worst Sox position after 3B (.705) is .746 (SS). If Iggy keeps hitting and playing SS and 3B, those numbers may go up quickly. After C (.609) and DH (.654), the Tigers have a .711 at 2B and .726 in LF.

    Looking at our line-up slots vs Detroits... (Red= 12+ pts better):

        BOS   DET

    .771  .755

    2 .781  .792

    3 .811  1.108

    1.009  .847

    .739   .630

    .772   .759

    7 .809   .753

    .695   .674

     

    .728   .704

     

    Sox4ever

     
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  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Red Sox Offense On Pace to be More Productive Than 2007 (And Other Halfway Notes)

    In response to crimsonandclover's comment:

    I like the balance of Miggy and Fielder, better.



    Who wouldn't, but you can walk whoever bats after the other, and the rest of their line-up is pretty weak. (I'd take Papi over Fielder as well.)

    Their staff is clearly superior, especially if they can find a decent clsoer.

     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from royf19. Show royf19's posts

    Re: Red Sox Offense On Pace to be More Productive Than 2007 (And Other Halfway Notes)

    In response to ZILLAGOD's comment:

    Hey roy...sorry , I just hate "on pace" stats, threads and discussions.

    Here are a few reasons why:

    In NASCAR, the driver that sits on the pole doesn't always win, the driver that leads at halfway rarely wins, this is why they run the whole race. So, NASCAR T.V. announcers tend to refrian from saying "he's on pace to finish in first place by two laps", mainly because the car can blow an engine or get caught up in a wreck.

    Go buy a Lottery ticket. If you get extremely lucky and get two winners in one day....are you on pace to have 730 winning tickets this year?....I don't think so.

    Say Lackey strikes out two batters in the 1st inning of a game. He would be "on pace" to strike out 18 batters in that game( if he pitched all 9 innings...which doesn't happen much anymore), even so, he'd be on pace to strike out 12 batters in his normal 6 inning stint.....not likely.

    Currently 5 guys in the AL are "on pace" to hit over 40 homeruns ( Davis, Cabrera, Encarnacion, Dunn and Cruz) ...how many do you think will keep up that pace?

    Back about 20 years ago , I was making a really good income , with lots fewer expenses. I was likely on pace to be a millionaire ( at some point in my life), I bought a house, had to change jobs, and the banks don't pay the same interest they paid back in 1990. Needless to say , I fell off that pace and never came close to even half a million.

     

    "There are lots of people who mistake their imagination for their memory.-Josh Billings



    Like I said, saying they're on pace isn't to suggest that they're going to continue at that level (or pace) and end up like that. Pumpsie is trying to start an argument that I'm stating that because the offense is at this level that I'm saying they're going to make the playoffs.

    It's simply to provide context. If you simply throw out numbers 16 home runs or 48 wins or whatever, you might not be able to quantify how good or bad the numbers are. By doing the math (simply multiply by 2) to give full-season numbers, it gives you a better point of reference.

    48 wins x 2 is 96 wins. 16 home runs x 2 is 32 home runs. We all know that 96 wins and 32 home runs are very good numbers for a full season. So it gives the fan better context to realize how good (in this case) the first half was for the team and some players. Simple as that.

    Doing it at the halfway point makes for easy math. But by doing it at any point of the season simply gives you a better idea on how good or bad a player or team was during that span.

    If those 48 wins and 16 home runs were for 103 game that's a 76-win pace and 25-home run pace and the numbers are quite the same, from poor for wins and simply good for home runs.

    And by comparing the on-pace full-season numbers to other teams simply gives you another point of reference to see how good or bad the team was compared to recent teams.

    Your NASCAR and lottery examples aren't the same thing.

    In sticking to baseball, when someone says on-pace, I NEVER assume that's how it's going to end up because there are many factors that could affect the rest of the season. It simply gives me a better reference on how the team or player is doing at that point in time.

     
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  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Red Sox Offense On Pace to be More Productive Than 2007 (And Other Halfway Notes)

    This lineup isn't the balanced lineup of the 2009 Yankees. Huge advantage to the Tigers. Rangers look better than the Red Sox, as well.

     

    How do the Tigers have a "huge advantage" in line-up balance?

    Show me where you are getting your position from?

     

    Looking at our line-up slots vs Detroits... (Red= 12+ pts better):

        BOS   DET

    .771  .755

    2 .781  .792

    3 .811  1.108

    1.009  .847

    .739   .630

    .772   .759

    7 .809   .753

    .695   .674 

    .728   .704

     

    Sox4ever

     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from emp9. Show emp9's posts

    Re: Red Sox Offense On Pace to be More Productive Than 2007 (And Other Halfway Notes)

    Really? Fielder over Ortiz? Are you watching the same season everyone else is? As far as endurance goes I'll still take Ortiz. Ortiz is in better shape.

    "Don't you worry about blank, let me worry about blank"

     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Red Sox Offense On Pace to be More Productive Than 2007 (And Other Halfway Notes)

    Let's broaden the look at balance in contender's offenses:

    Red is top 2 and Orange is #3

     

       BOS   DET  TEX  NYY  OAK

    .771  .755   .748  .809  .836

    2 .781  .792   .579  .797  .674

    3 .811  1.108  .736  .738  .687

    1.009  .847  .841  .640  .766

    .739   .630   .818  .584  .839

    .772   .759   .744  .710  .785

    7 .809   .753   .833  .619  .794

    .695   .674   .668  .605  .621

     

    9 .728   .704   .755  .594  .553

     

    How about Home and Away?

                H      A (OPS)     H      A (Runs/gm)

    BOS   .828   .759           5.27  5.03

    DET   .822    .731          5.55  4.37

    TX     .776   .722           4.54  4.19

    NYY   .694   .668           3.66  4.11

    Oak   .722  .738            4.44  4.86

     

     

    How about vs lefty and righty?

           vs L  vs R (OPS)    vs L  vs R (Runs/gm vs starter)

    BOS  .710  .833              4.52  5.43

    DET   .799   .772             5.50  4.86

    TX     .715   .760             4.84  4.13

    NYY   .642   .700             3.12  4.22

    Oak   .744   .724             4.38  4.81

     

    Let's look at the median numbers (2nd number is closest to next number):

              Scored      Allowed

    BOS     5 (4)           4 (3)

    DET      4/5 (tie)     3 (4)

    TX        4 (3)           4 (3)

    NYY     4 (3)           3 (4)

    OAK    4 (5)           3/4 (tie)

     

    Sox4ever

     
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  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Red Sox Offense On Pace to be More Productive Than 2007 (And Other Halfway Notes)

    In response to crimsonandclover's comment:

    Ortiz isn't in better shape than Fielder. 

    The point of the comparison with the 2009 Yankees was that the Red Sox lineup isn't good enough to make a case based on lineup numbers. The dynamic of Fielder and Miggy far outweighs any raw numbers comparison. This was evident in 2012, as the Yankees found out. 

    Put out all the numbers you want, the Tigers are the better baseball team, and it's not because of the pitching comparisons. 



    When did I ever say the Sox were better than the Tigers?

    Our starting rotation isn't even close to theirs, and if you knew me, you'd know, I value SP above all else.

    You made a point about the Tigers' offense being more balanced than ours, or at least that's how I took your statement. That part of their team is not better than ours, or at least has not been thus far.

    No doubt, Miggy and Prince are the best 1-2 combo in MLB. Makes me think of the Papi-Manny days. At this point in the season, on offense, I'll take our other 7 over Detroits. It may not continue as it has; one could argue that Iggy, Carp, Nava and Salty will come back down to earth, but then one could also argue that Ellsbury, Victorino, Drew, Gomes, and Middlebrooks could improve over their first halves of the season as well.

    The Tigers will pick up a closer at the deadline (if not before) and will be the clear favorite to win the AL. I also think the Yanks and Rangers will pass the Sox in the best record category by year's end, unless we make a deal or two. 

     
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