Step by step guide on taking the Red Sox into contention without blowing up the bridge.

 

Step 1: The right manager

 

This should read: anyone but John Farrell. Count me amongst those who would avoid ole' Johnny at all costs. Interesting to see that Dustin Pedroia put on his anonymous hat to join my chorus this morning, which only further speaks to why the next manager cannot be John Farrell. Tony Pena would be my first choice, but Mueller, Martinez, Ausmus, or Wallach could all make fine choices. The Red Sox passed on Arnie Beyler but I could live with him too. Just not John Farrell. I didn't enjoy Joe Kerrigan the first time around.

 

Step 2: Assemble the roster, don't sell the farm

 

With so many holes to fill the Red Sox will need some luck and return to mean from current players to contend. This may be asking alot, as Jon Lester is not likely to start throwing 97 and being dominant again, but they have a core of solid arms for the rotation. Morales should be stretched out from spring training, Dubront, Lester and Buchholz fill out a potentially passable rotation. Cut Jon Lackey's brake lines. No, seriously. Then go find the best deal available for Peavy, Jackson or Sanchez. Would much prefer Peavy, but sign one of those three. Start DeLaRosa in triple A, ready for a mid-season call up when depth is needed. Leave Tazawa ready to take over the second Andrew Bailey falters. Fill out some more bullpen depth, part with the likes of Padilla and build around Andrew Miller, Alex Wilson, Atchion, Hill and yes Melancon as depth.

The lineup

 

This is where things get tougher.

 

Trade: Garin Cecchini/Blake Swihart and Drake Britton/Brandon Workman, plus two lower tier prospects for Ike Davis. Give the mets a 3 tier list, 1 player from first tier, 1 player from second tier, and two players from third tier.

Ike Davis gives you a left handed cost controlled 1b age 25 with power and some discipline. 

 

Trade: Jacoby Ellsbury for Nelson Cruz

MLB.com's Texas beat reporter TR Sullivan threw this out there while saying the Rangers wouldn't trade Andrus or Holland for Ellsbury. Frankly, this is a better fit long term anyway. Assuming Boegarts goes the route of Hanley Ramirez and doesn't change positions, Andrus would create a logjam necessitating a younger player to move not just positions, but likely from the infield to the outfield. I'd flat out pass on Holland like I wanted to flat out pass on Lackey. Cruz is intriguing. At 31, he is only locked up for one more year (like Ellsbury), has slugged nearly .500 in his career, is righthanded, and doesnt kill you with his k rate. He is ideally suited to anchor the middle of this new lineup between Ortiz and Davis.

 

Sign Angel Pagan

The 31 year old Center fielder has good speed and decent plate discipline, but more importantly actually has better career numbers batting leadoff than any other spot in the order. Whereas someone flashier like Victorino comes with the Carl Crawford 'not comfortable leading off' caveat, Pagan is just fine batting first. His base running is not world burning, but in 3 full seasons he has averaged over 30sb each year while getting caught less than 10 times.

 

Re sign Papi and Ross

 

It is house money short term anyway. We pay the highest ticket prices in baseball, and these owners have NESN, are getting more from the national deal, and can afford a $200m rennovation of the other team they are driving into the ground. They can manage to hand out 2 and 3 year deals respectively without mortgaging the future and handcuffing the front office moving forward.

 

This would leave the Red Sox with

 

Pagan (b)            CF      

Pedroia (r)           2B

Ortiz (l)                DH

Cruz (r)                LF

Davis (l)               1B

Middlebrooks (r)  3B

Ross (r)                RF

Salty/Lavarnway  C

Iglesias/Ciriaco    SS

 

Not 03/04, but not 2012 either, this lineup should be fine albeit right handed heavy towards the bottom

 

Rotation

 

Buchholz

Lester

Peavy

Dubront

Morales

DeLaRosa (mid season)

 

Bullpen

 

Tazawa

Bailey

Miller

Wilson

Atchison

Hill

Melancon

 

Fill out the bench with Kalish, The two non starting platoon players, and some capable role players and this team should have a shot at a division title without destroying the future

I like Papi-Cruz-Davis lineup.  I would try JBJ and see what he's got.  Even though it was low levels, JBJ showed ridiculous .430 OBP in 2012 between A and AA. 

In response to seannybboi's comment:

Pagan could be gotten for two years and play the same role Coco Crisp played with Ellsbury while JBJ gets ready.

Thats far too much to give for Ike Davis, he could be had for much less.

In response to stan17's comment:

I'd hope to avoid Swihart, but the Mets are looking for catching and the other players are fringe prospects and the Mets will want SOMETHING decent, hence Swihart or Cecchini.

Swihart was a 1st rd pk, Cecchini was given 1st rd money to sign from HS and Workman was a 2nd rd pk. I don't see the Sox trading them unless it's in a deal for a solid starting pitcher, not  for a .227 hitting 1st baseman.

i dont see hamilton, laroche, and lohse/greinke on that roster?

In response to slasher9's comment:

And you likely never will...

The Mets will want a top 10 prospect, they aren't top 5, and Davis hit 227 while battling illness for half the season and was limited to a 246 babip while still posting a 771/110+, and through 2 1/2 seasons has posted a line of 252/336/797/117+ while playing half his games in citi field. (his career away line is 267/343/846)

In response to jasko2248's comment:

definitely will not

Only one thing needs to be done; find a GM that knows how to assemble a roster. Everything else will fall into place.

In response to stan17's comment:

The Mets have said they NEED bullpen help. I suggested one of our LHP like Morales or Miller. Throw in Alex Wilson and another lower level high ceiling prospect and I think  that would at least be a solid starting point.

IMO, Cecchini and Swihart is too much already. Davis has upset the Mets with his late night partying combined with a low 200's AVG. He has a replacement already. If he does come here, I would sit him down and tell him if he wants to be an MLB player he needs to get more serious about it.

Id rather have one year of Justin Morneau. Not sure it would cost a lot either. Its cutting 14mm from the Twins payroll AND its only 1 year of control.

By then we could see if Travis Shaws production this year continues and even possibly Jerry Sands working out at 1b.

I like the Peavy, Pagan and Cruz moves...I was just thinking yesterday watching SF that Pagan could be a nice replacement for a couple years until Bradley was completely ready sometime in 2014. All 3 on deals no more than 3 yrs would be fine.

The Sox are in a position to overpay a little for low year deal on guys that would def impact the team in one way or another.

 Peavy at around 17mm, Cruz only has 1 year of control for 10.5mm and Pagan on a Cody Ross type deal...

This post has been removed.

Morneau isnt the long term option, just a placeholder for a year to see if one of our own is ready. If we want to look long term now, there are obviously other options mentioned like Ike Davis.

In response to southpaw777's comment:

I'm saying Swihart or Cecchini agreed both would be too much. I'd much rather hang on to Morales (and probably Miller) than a Workman type. Red Sox fans often grow too attached to their own prospects. A few will pan out most will miss. Masterson is a guy everybody wanted cause was a former Sox but his career is much in doubt. Someone everyone wanted gone like Arroyo is still pitching well. Keep in mind Craig Hansen was a 1st round pick, heck Trot Nixon was the 7th pick in the draft and JD Drew represented an UPGRADE (how sad a statement is JD Drew being an upgrade to anyone). Baseball isn't the nba or nfl where prospect talent has a 1 in 3 chance in working out. With 40-60 players taken in the 1st and supplemental 1st rounds each year it is more a 1 in 10 proposition, and that is just with the high draft value. Better to give up some potential talent (unless they have a 96 mph fastball ie Morales) for proven talent.

In response to smuldy84's comment:

If the Twins are rebuilding then they will want to shed payroll. The Sox can afford this and might not have to part with a lot if they take the whole contract so the twins have the flexability to make a move. Maybe a lower level pitching prospect and a blocked position player with high upside...

 

 

If the Twins are rebuilding then they will want to shed payroll. The Sox can afford this and might not have to part with a lot if they take the whole contract so the twins have the flexability to make a move. Maybe a lower level pitching prospect and a blocked position player with high upside...

 

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I'd really have to look at alot to determine whether I would rather have JM or ID straight up. In my mind either Swihart or Cecchini are expendable because they are blocked. Middlebrooks is likely the 3b at least as long as Nomar was the SS, two very comparable players given the holes in their games. And one has to think that either Lavarnway can figure out how to hit in the majors (my hope, given his Yale pedigree and my theory on intelligent catchers being like intelligent quarterbacks/point guards in game calling) and he showed improvement in tradtional defensive metrics, or Salty can get his OBP somewhere where you can live with Vtek level defense and 30hr (330?). Again both are valuable trade chips so emphasis on or rather than both. Workman and Britton I expect nothing more from than I did Bowden and Miller. RDL is absolutely untouchable to me. His upside is Pedro Martinez and those guys come along once every decade. Pap had that same explosive fastball, and RDL has a better change right now at 23. He might not make it just the upside is too high. Webster and Barnes are guys available only in the absolutely right trade. Otherwise Boegarts Bradley De La Cruz and Jacobs are the only absolutely need to be blown away or they are untouchables.

In response to smuldy84's comment:

I'd really have to look at alot to determine whether I would rather have JM or ID straight up. In my mind either Swihart or Cecchini are expendable because they are blocked. Middlebrooks is likely the 3b at least as long as Nomar was the SS, two very comparable players given the holes in their games. And one has to think that either Lavarnway can figure out how to hit in the majors (my hope, given his Yale pedigree and my theory on intelligent catchers being like intelligent quarterbacks/point guards in game calling) and he showed improvement in tradtional defensive metrics, or Salty can get his OBP somewhere where you can live with Vtek level defense and 30hr (330?). Again both are valuable trade chips so emphasis on or rather than both. Workman and Britton I expect nothing more from than I did Bowden and Miller. RDL is absolutely untouchable to me. His upside is Pedro Martinez and those guys come along once every decade. Pap had that same explosive fastball, and RDL has a better change right now at 23. He might not make it just the upside is too high. Webster and Barnes are guys available only in the absolutely right trade. Otherwise Boegarts Bradley De La Cruz and Jacobs are the only absolutely need to be blown away or they are untouchables.

[/QUOTE]


Honestly, I could see a possible move to 1b for Cecchini. I like his game and if nothing works out at 1b for us, he seems like he could make the move. The downside to him is Im not sure if the power will come. hes like mauer in the sense that he has a great AVG and OBP, but not much power (HR) to speak of for a big kid.

If his progression keeps going the way it is, he could fetch us a nice return. Have to wait and see how he handles the advanced pitching in AA first though.

Swihart might not last behind the plate, but has a high ceiling. Also would like to see how he handles advanced pitching too.

Now, with all this said, If the Sox were to get a great offer for them, I would pull the trigger now. But I believe they both will gain a lot more value after they prove they can hit in AA.

Bottom line is I wouldnt give up either of them for one year of Morneau.

 

Completely agreed on JM. Like I said would have to look my initial reads were based on Ike Davis' age and numbers away from Citi. Would totally give up either for them but not both. But say Workman, Cecchini and Stolmy for Davis and a low A player with an arm, then yes absolutely deal and if it blows up it blows up. Not too worried about any of those players becoming super duper all stars. And I was pretty high on Reddick, not so much on Kalish, and was dead out on Lowrie so take that for what its worth. But I think Davis game would be perfect as a L-R-L 3-4-5 in 5 hole if Bosox got right bat in between (again, Cruz)

In response to smuldy84's comment:

Might even be able to get Davis a little cheaper due to his low average (his overall numbers are not overwhelming), some after hour issues theyve had with him and the fact that they already have someone to play 1b. If they re-sign Wright, then Cecchini wouldnt work.

The Mets have stated they need bullpen arms, which we have a surplus of including too many LHP like Miller, Morales, Hill and Breslow. Im sure one of them and an Alex Wilson might work for them. Or a Pimentel or Britton. I would see if I could do a 2-1 deal. Davis has good power but has no discipline at all. 141 K's this year with 32HR. We can have a couple of those types in the lineup, but not too many.

But yeah, we basically agree on this.

In response to smuldy84's comment:

I think Bailey will be traded to Cleveland for Perez and he will be the closer, or the Sox will sign Peralta from the Rays and make him the closer with Tazawa in the wings and Melancon as a 3 rd option.

Bailey will close this year for the Sox. Why would they trade him? His numbers are very good and I really dont think his month of work after a thumb injury is a good way to judge his performance. Hes going nowhere IMO...

I think there will be a trade of one or both of our catchers and JF will bring in one of the Molina's or Mathis or Laird as an experienced backstop to help solidify the pitching staff.