Red Sox signed Carlos Silva

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  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Red Sox signed Carlos Silva

    In Response to Re: Red Sox signed Carlos Silva:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: Red Sox signed Carlos Silva : When Webb was trying to make a comeback with the Rangers, he could only get up to the low 80's with his fastball.  Unless he's been able to improve on that dramatically, he's done. I'd also be happy with Wake on a minor league deal with a low, prorated MLB salary (< $1M), the question is would he swallow his pride and accept one.
    Posted by JB-3[/QUOTE]

    I'd be very happy if he accepted a minor league deal, but I think he will get a chance to start on another team somewhere. We'll see.

     
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    Re: Red Sox signed Carlos Silva

    In Response to Re: Red Sox signed Carlos Silva:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: Red Sox signed Carlos Silva : That one's on me.  I just don't see Doubront in the starting rotation, unless he breaks camp there.  I believe he's out of options, and it would be exceptionally difficult to get him stretched out from a bullpen role mid-season. I suppose Ace could still give a spot start or 2, but I see him continuing his role from last year as long relief.  IMO he should start the year piggybacking on Bard's starts.
    Posted by JB-3[/QUOTE]
    Agreed.  My point was that if Ace and Doubront are in the pen, they could both be available for spot starts and should be in the depth chart as such.  Plus, absent other moves, as you already alluded, Douby's got a shot at #5 until Dice returns.

    Moon - I don't think I can make it scientific, but I think I disagree with your methodology.  First, Buch only had ~80IP last year.  So even if he is +4ERA the #3 slot is improved as long as he goes 120+IP this year.  Also, Wake was our #4 starter last year in terms of GS.  I can understand bumping him down to the #5 slot for sake of comparison, but that's the lowest he should be slotted to compare if we've improved over last year.  Secondly, if you are going to combine his stats with Bedard's you definitely need to put the combined #'s into the third or fourth pitching slot to have a realistic comparison.   Overall, putting aside year to year variance, we should be the same or better in the #1-4 slots ... no question.  As for the #5 slot, it should be the same as last year or marginally better I think.
     
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    Re: Red Sox signed Carlos Silva

    Silva will have similar chance as Aceves had IMO.  If he steps up during ST, he will have chances at least as a BP guy in the major.  If Aceves moves into the rotation sooner or later, Silva could fill in that hole if, once again, he shows great stuff.  Silva is a big dude and I've watched him throwing.  When he's good, HE'S GOOD.  I just hope he stays good.
     
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    Re: Red Sox signed Carlos Silva

    Let me try it another way ... ranking by 2011 #GS vs. 2012 projected GS.  Basically we stay the same for 73GS, improve for 63GS and get worse for 23GS.  Obviously, we have no idea about injuries ... then again, maybe Miller or Douby or Silva will pitch 20 games of 4.5-5.0 ERA ball, who knows.

    2011 (GS) 2012 + / 0 / -
    Lester (31) Lester 0
    Beckett (30) Beckett 0
    Lackey (28) Buchholz ++
    Wakefield (23) Bard ++
    Buchholz (14) Miller --
    Miller (12) Dice +
    Bedard (8) Doubront -
    Dice (7) Aceves 0
    Weiland (5) Silva 0
    Aceves (4) Weiland -
     
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    Re: Red Sox signed Carlos Silva

    Moon - I don't think I can make it scientific, but I think I disagree with your methodology.  First, Buch only had ~80IP last year.  So even if he is +4ERA the #3 slot is improved as long as he goes 120+IP this year.  

    Let's go along and hope Buch's back allows him to get 40-60 more IPs in 2012 than 2011, I sincerely doubt that we will get this from... (in 2012)
    Beckett  193 IP  2.89
    Lester     192IP  3.47
    It's the first time we got 280+ IP from those two, and the first time we got sub 3.50 ERAs from the two. What makes you think the big 3 will all be fit and able all year long? I hope they are, but we ought to have a plan in case one isn't up to par.

    Also, Wake was our #4 starter last year in terms of GS.  I can understand bumping him down to the #5 slot for sake of comparison, but that's the lowest he should be slotted to compare if we've improved over last year.  

    I think my methodology is sound. I am looking at where were were last year before opening day. We had very good starting pitching depth and could not have anticipated all the starter injuries we had. My point was that this was our depth chart going into 2011. If Dice-K stayed healthy, Wake was #6. An argumant could be made that Aceves was the #6 and Wake was #7. (Bedard was added and was better than Wake, so in a sense, when we got him, Wake became the 7th starter forced into the 4/5 slot by injuries- or 8th if you count Aceves, who was a better starter, but better and more needed in the pen.)
    2011:
    1) Beckett/Lester
    2) Lester/Beckett
    3) Buchholtz
    4) Dice/Lackey
    5) Lackey/Dice
    6) (Bedard after acquired)/ Wake ( before Bedard) [Aceves-better]
    7) Wake (after Bedard acquired)
    8) Aceves (needed more in the pen, but better than Wake) 
    9) Doubront- Got hurt
    10) Miller
    11) Tazawa - hurt
    12) Weiland

    Right now, it appears that this is our starter depth chart (assuming Bard and Aceves both become starters- which kills our pen)
    2012
    1) Beckett
    2) Lester
    3) Buch
    4) Bard (120-140 IP? Lackey had 160)
    5) Aceves (120-140 IP? Dice-Wake-Bedard had 180+ as starters)
    6) Miller
    7) Doubront (Pen?)
    8) Silva
    9) Tazawa
    10) Wilson
    11)Duckworth
    12) Haeger/Pena/Barnes

    Secondly, if you are going to combine his stats with Bedard's you definitely need to put the combined #'s into the third or fourth pitching slot to have a realistic comparison.   Overall, putting aside year to year variance, we should be the same or better in the #1-4 slots ... no question.  As for the #5 slot, it should be the same as last year or marginally better I think.

    Good point. Let's follow my 2011 chart and make combinations:
    (I used back-up starters based on GS to make each slot about 27-32 GS)
      Starter stats only used

    1) Beckett  30 GS  193 IP  2.89/1.026 WHIP
         2012: I do not expect equal or better.

    2) Lester    31 GS   193 IP  3.47/ 1.257
         2012: I expect about the same, maybe slightly better.

    3) Buch       14 GS     83 IP  3.48/1.294
         Miller       12 GS    58 IP  5.55/1.800
         2012: I expect, if healthy, better from our 3 slot.

    4) Lackey    28 GS   160IP  6.41/1.619
         2012: I expect better from Bard, but he will tax the pen with less IP

    5) Dice-K        7 GS     36IP  4.95/1.404
         Wake        23GS    137IP  5.31/1.398
         2012: I expect worse from this slot, but if it is Aceves pen is taxed.

    6+) Bedard     8GS     38IP   4.03/1.553
            Weiland   5GS     23IP   8.72/1.846
            Aceves   4GS     21IP   5.14/1.571  
         2012: I expect worse here as well

    I guess we could divide and combine the 2012 slots like this:

    1-3) Beckett/Lester/Buch (Maybe more GS and more IP) Plus to 2012
    4 slot: Bard/Miller                                    Plus over Lackey
    5 slot: Aceves/Doubront                        Minus from Dice/Wake but close
    6+slot: Silva/Tazawa/Wilson               Minus from Bed/Acev/Weil 
            
    I, for one, do not see both Bard and Aceves as starters all year long. If that happens then the pen gets better, but these starter comparisons go south.

    With Bard and Aceves starting instead of Lackey, Dice, Wake and Bedard, we may see our pen taxed to the hilt. Let's look at IP per start last year:
    Beckett  6.43
    Lester     6.18
    Wake       5.97  23 GS
    Buch        5.90
    Lack        5.71   28 GS
    Aceves   5.25
    Dice         5.19
    Miller       4.86
    Bedard    4.75  8 GS
    Weiland  4.33   5 GS
    (Players in red are no longer here for 2012)

    What do we expect from Bard?  4.75 to 5.25?  24 GS?
    What do we expect from Aceves? 5.0 to 5.50? 24 GS?

    How will this effect the 2012 pen that is much worse than a very good 2011 pen?

    2011: (relief IP only) Players in Red will not be in the 2012 pen
    Aceves  93 IP  2.03  1.000  (Assume Albers takes his role)
    Bard       73.0   3.33  0.959  Melancon  74.1  2.78  1.224 in the NL
    Albers    64.2   4.73  1.438
    Paps       64.1   2.94  0.933  Bailey: 41.2  3.24  1.104 in Oak (big park)
    Wheel    49.1    4.38  1.115 (Assume Doubront takes his role)
    Morales 32.1    3.62  1.268
    Atchis    30.1    3.26  1.220
    Bowden 20.0    4.05  1.500
    Wake      17.1    3.63  1.038 (Assume Morales increases his IP)
    Jenks      15.2    6.32  2.234
    Doubr      10.1    6.10  1.935
    Oki             8.1    4.32   1.440
    Will            8.1    6.48   1.800
    R Hill         8.0     0.00   0.750
    Miller        6.2     5.40   1.950
    Hottovy   4.0    6.75    1.750
    Weiland    3.0    0.00    0.333
    Tazawa     3.0   6.00    1.333
    TMiller       2.0   0.00    0.000
    Reyes        1.2  16.20   2.400
    DMac          1.0  18.00  3.000
    Dice-K        1.0   18.00  4.000 

    Overall, I'd say our staff is at best even with 2011.
    We lost Paps, Wake, Lackey, Bedard, Weiland, Wheeler and a few others.
    We gained Bailey, Melancon and hopefully more IP from Buch, Bard, Aceves, Morales, Doubront (Atchison, Bowden, Tazawa).

    Our staff needed to be improved upon going into 2012.
     
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    Re: Red Sox signed Carlos Silva

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