Moon - I don't think I can make it scientific, but I think I disagree with your methodology. First, Buch only had ~80IP last year. So even if he is +4ERA the #3 slot is improved as long as he goes 120+IP this year.
Let's go along and hope Buch's back allows him to get 40-60 more IPs in 2012 than 2011, I sincerely doubt that we will get this from... (in 2012)
Beckett 193 IP 2.89
Lester 192IP 3.47
It's the first time we got 280+ IP from those two, and the first time we got sub 3.50 ERAs from the two. What makes you think the big 3 will all be fit and able all year long? I hope they are, but we ought to have a plan in case one isn't up to par.
Also, Wake was our #4 starter last year in terms of GS. I can understand bumping him down to the #5 slot for sake of comparison, but that's the lowest he should be slotted to compare if we've improved over last year.
I think my methodology is sound. I am looking at where were were last year before opening day. We had very good starting pitching depth and could not have anticipated all the starter injuries we had. My point was that this was our depth chart going into 2011. If Dice-K stayed healthy, Wake was #6. An argumant could be made that Aceves was the #6 and Wake was #7. (Bedard was added and was better than Wake, so in a sense, when we got him, Wake became the 7th starter forced into the 4/5 slot by injuries- or 8th if you count Aceves, who was a better starter, but better and more needed in the pen.)
2011:
1) Beckett/Lester
2) Lester/Beckett
3) Buchholtz
4) Dice/Lackey
5) Lackey/Dice
6) (Bedard after acquired)/ Wake ( before Bedard) [Aceves-better]
7) Wake (after Bedard acquired)
8) Aceves (needed more in the pen, but better than Wake)
9) Doubront- Got hurt
10) Miller
11) Tazawa - hurt
12) Weiland
Right now, it appears that this is our starter depth chart (assuming Bard and Aceves both become starters- which kills our pen)
2012
1) Beckett
2) Lester
3) Buch
4) Bard (120-140 IP? Lackey had 160)
5) Aceves (120-140 IP? Dice-Wake-Bedard had 180+ as starters)
6) Miller
7) Doubront (Pen?)
8) Silva
9) Tazawa
10) Wilson
11)Duckworth
12) Haeger/Pena/Barnes
Secondly, if you are going to combine his stats with Bedard's you definitely need to put the combined #'s into the third or fourth pitching slot to have a realistic comparison. Overall, putting aside year to year variance, we should be the same or better in the #1-4 slots ... no question. As for the #5 slot, it should be the same as last year or marginally better I think.
Good point. Let's follow my 2011 chart and make combinations:
(I used back-up starters based on GS to make each slot about 27-32 GS)
Starter stats only used
1) Beckett 30 GS 193 IP 2.89/1.026 WHIP
2012: I do not expect equal or better.
2) Lester 31 GS 193 IP 3.47/ 1.257
2012: I expect about the same, maybe slightly better.
3) Buch 14 GS 83 IP 3.48/1.294
Miller 12 GS 58 IP 5.55/1.800
2012: I expect, if healthy, better from our 3 slot.
4) Lackey 28 GS 160IP 6.41/1.619
2012: I expect better from Bard, but he will tax the pen with less IP
5) Dice-K 7 GS 36IP 4.95/1.404
Wake 23GS 137IP 5.31/1.398
2012: I expect worse from this slot, but if it is Aceves pen is taxed.
6+) Bedard 8GS 38IP 4.03/1.553
Weiland 5GS 23IP 8.72/1.846
Aceves 4GS 21IP 5.14/1.571
2012: I expect worse here as well
I guess we could divide and combine the 2012 slots like this:
1-3) Beckett/Lester/Buch (Maybe more GS and more IP) Plus to 2012
4 slot: Bard/Miller Plus over Lackey
5 slot: Aceves/Doubront Minus from Dice/Wake but close
6+slot: Silva/Tazawa/Wilson Minus from Bed/Acev/Weil
I, for one, do not see both Bard and Aceves as starters all year long. If that happens then the pen gets better, but these starter comparisons go south.
With Bard and Aceves starting instead of Lackey, Dice, Wake and Bedard, we may see our pen taxed to the hilt. Let's look at IP per start last year:
Beckett 6.43
Lester 6.18
Wake 5.97 23 GS
Buch 5.90
Lack 5.71 28 GS
Aceves 5.25
Dice 5.19
Miller 4.86
Bedard 4.75 8 GS
Weiland 4.33 5 GS
(Players in red are no longer here for 2012)
What do we expect from Bard? 4.75 to 5.25? 24 GS?
What do we expect from Aceves? 5.0 to 5.50? 24 GS?
How will this effect the 2012 pen that is much worse than a very good 2011 pen?
2011: (relief IP only) Players in Red will not be in the 2012 pen
Aceves 93 IP 2.03 1.000 (Assume Albers takes his role)
Bard 73.0 3.33 0.959 Melancon 74.1 2.78 1.224 in the NL
Albers 64.2 4.73 1.438
Paps 64.1 2.94 0.933 Bailey: 41.2 3.24 1.104 in Oak (big park)
Wheel 49.1 4.38 1.115 (Assume Doubront takes his role)
Morales 32.1 3.62 1.268
Atchis 30.1 3.26 1.220
Bowden 20.0 4.05 1.500
Wake 17.1 3.63 1.038 (Assume Morales increases his IP)
Jenks 15.2 6.32 2.234
Doubr 10.1 6.10 1.935
Oki 8.1 4.32 1.440
Will 8.1 6.48 1.800
R Hill 8.0 0.00 0.750
Miller 6.2 5.40 1.950
Hottovy 4.0 6.75 1.750
Weiland 3.0 0.00 0.333
Tazawa 3.0 6.00 1.333
TMiller 2.0 0.00 0.000
Reyes 1.2 16.20 2.400
DMac 1.0 18.00 3.000
Dice-K 1.0 18.00 4.000
Overall, I'd say our staff is at best even with 2011.
We lost Paps, Wake, Lackey, Bedard, Weiland, Wheeler and a few others.
We gained Bailey, Melancon and hopefully more IP from Buch, Bard, Aceves, Morales, Doubront (Atchison, Bowden, Tazawa).
Our staff needed to be improved upon going into 2012.
