Red Sox v. Yankees is still better than 50/50 ALCS

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    Red Sox v. Yankees is still better than 50/50 ALCS

    Despite the Wakefield distraction, coasting and cautious too early September meltdown, quite clear that Red Sox and Yankees are a little better than Detroit or Texas/LA. Short series can produce an upset, but comparing the two more talented teams is worth another look as 162 game season closes out.

    Both teams have two key bats who are not going to be anywhere close to 100% for playoffs. Youk and A-Roid. Up and down the lineup, on offense, the teams are fairly evenly matched.
     
    In the field, infield is pretty close, but outfield is a clear advantage to Yankees unless Drew returns. Despite the acrimony towards Drew, he is one of the most naturally gifted OFers one will see. If he is able to return for post season, his experience would be a huge upgrade over Reddick. With Drew, OF is closer but Yankees still have a razo'rs edge. Catcher defense is about even.

    Baserunning and speed is about even.

    Starting pitching, Beckett and CC are fairly even, but Lester is a better talented #2 than whoever Yankees choose. Bedard will need to be #3, and matches up well against their choice. Lackey as #4 has experience but Red Sox need Buch to provide at least a few innings. If so, Red Sox starting pitching is better. If not, it is about even becuase the difference has been better quality regular season pitching depth for the Yankees in 3-6. Since the Red Sox added Bedard, in the playoff setting, the 4-6 quality difference is not enough to have an impact in compressed setting. 

    Pen. Papelbon has been simply dominant over second half and has produced a slightly better WHIP than Mo. At 41, as good as Mo is, Papelbon's current form and age makes him slightly better than Mo. Bard's very brief flat tire ended with a brilliant inning under stress. As good as Robertson is this year, Bard WHIP is much better. Soriano had a career year with Rays, and his exit and Crawford's career year exit were the reason the Rays have been out of the AL East picture for months. The reason Red Sox meltdown was not enough to rescue an inferior 2011 version to 2010 Rays version. But Soriano has not been good this year. Aceves has a far superior WHIP. Lefty specialist Morales and Logan are close, Morales has a little lower WHIP but park variable makes this insignificant.
          Overall, I'm pleasantly surprised to see that in a playoff setting the Red Sox have a little better pen than the Yankees.

    It is clear to me why the Red Sox dominated the Yankees during the regular season, and why the Yankees are a little better against the rest of the schedule. The Red Sox match up really well against the Yankees and if status quo of today carries another 2 weeks, probability, Red Sox would win a 7 game series at least  6 out of 10 times. 

    If these two teams survive upset bids from inferior playoff roster talent in Texas and Detroit, I like the Red Sox to return to the WS. If Buch is able to provide good form for a few innings in playoffs, and Drew gets healthy soon enough to provide the needed OF defense upgrade and experienced plate appearances in playoff setting, the NYMS sports media is wrong if it pretends that any team but the Red Sox are at least slight favorites to win AL. How the Red Sox have played over last 2 or 3 weeks is irrelevant to playoff competition setting. 

    Red Sox have construction flaws that should not be present on a team with a budget like 2011 budget. So team success in post season should not be confused with management performance. 

    Without question, as pre-season guesses anticpated, the two most talented teams are the Phillies and Red Sox. Phillies will be favorites against any AL team, and any AL team needs to hope the Phillies are upset.

    The AL East competitive level will make either Yankees or Red Sox confident in WS. So, unless inferior talents in Texas and Detroit pull upsets, AL has good chance to spoil notions of Philly invincibility in a WS matchup.

    Regardless of post season outcome, Red Sox need to remedy construction flaws that should have been taken care of last winter. And how players perform this season or in WS should have zero influence on needed post season trade and FA market roster changes.
     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from harness. Show harness's posts

    Re: Red Sox v. Yankees is still better than 50/50 ALCS

    Disagree with the perceived urgency to play Drew over Redick. His fielding is regressing (still good, but not as good as you perceive). His offense is in total regression. Reddick has better numbers and is healthier.
    It's a matter of inexperience vs. player aging out. Reddick is the realistic choice.

    The hope is that Boston will face the Tigers, as they match up well against them. NY will have their hands full with TX, a team I think you are underestimating.

    As for NY/BS match up, looking at seasonal numbers doesn't offer an accurate window into current form. NY starters have been more durable and as a result have logged almost 70% of the staff's total IP. Boston SR is at about 66% but that's deceptive as the injury bug has taken a toll on the pen, which could be very revealing in a short series, especially against NY hitters who excel at working counts.

    I still like how BS matches up vs. NY, but the edge was clearly greater in the first half.
     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from 1958lesspaul. Show 1958lesspaul's posts

    Re: Red Sox v. Yankees is still better than 50/50 ALCS

    Disagree with the perceived urgency to play Drew over Redick. His fielding is regressing (still good, but not as good as you perceive). His offense is in total regression. Reddick has better numbers and is healthier.
    It's a matter of inexperience vs. player aging out. Reddick is the realistic choice.

    I didn't read where I said it was an urgency that Drew play. But it is an upgrade, defensively. Reddick is an easy strikeout in a playoff setting, which calls for poise and experience. Metrics over a partial season are just about worthless for inexperienced players in a playoff setting. Your perception is not reality. Reddick still has inexperience poise issues, as was evident tonight and during the recent adjustment from the new book on Reddick. Injuries would be the only reason to play Reddick over Drew, in the post season. Your claim that Reddick is the realistic choice is not realistic if Drew is healthy enough to play.    

    The hope is that Boston will face the Tigers, as they match up well against them. NY will have their hands full with TX, a team I think you are underestimating.

    I don't underestimate any team. I study all metrics and have decades of experienc with baseball and athletic competition. The Rangers without Lee are an inferior baseball team in talent. Becuase of variables in a competition that involves both skill and chance, probability always shows that the inferior talent will win a matchup for a minority of the times played. "Hands full" is a meaningless phrase. Yankees were better in regular season and in post season format would beat Rangers at least 6 out of 10 series. I noted the potential for upset, which it would be for an inferior talented Rangers roster.

    Pretty clear thay are unable to divorce emotion from analysis. I don't want the Yankees to advance as much as any Red Sox fan, and I hope they do not. But I'm not so filled with competitive animus that I don't know a better odds from a weaker one. For entertainment and competitive interest, I would rather see the Red Sox and the Yankees in the ALCS. One can only hope that Tim Wakefield woud not be a part of that potential match-up;)   

    As for NY/BS match up, looking at seasonal numbers doesn't offer an accurate window into current form. NY starters have been more durable and as a result have logged almost 70% of the staff's total IP. Boston SR is at about 66% but that's deceptive as the injury bug has taken a toll on the pen, which could be very revealing in a short series, especially against NY hitters who excel at working counts.

    I believe I articulate why post season is different, but why Red Sox match-up well during season and in post season. My analysis is based upon both season and current form in a playoff format. Any pen taxing would be revealed more in a long series, not a short one.     

    I still like how BS matches up vs. NY, but the edge was clearly greater in the first half.                      

    You just contradicted yourself. Using segments of regular season to quanitfy the difference in an edge is to ignore the details for the difference over the big sample season in a post-season format.  The Red Sox dominance over the Yankees in the regular season is based upon the match-up of the character of the construction of the two teams. Despite some variables, in a playoff format, the big sample is of a character that is not enough to have a substantial difference on the static factors that make for the difference.

     
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    Re: Red Sox v. Yankees is still better than 50/50 ALCS

    In Response to Re: Red Sox v. Yankees is still better than 50/50 ALCS:
    [QUOTE]Disagree with the perceived urgency to play Drew over Redick. His fielding is regressing (still good, but not as good as you perceive). His offense is in total regression. Reddick has better numbers and is healthier. It's a matter of inexperience vs. player aging out. Reddick is the realistic choice. I didn't read where I said it was an urgency that Drew play. But it is an upgrade, defensively. Reddick is an easy strikeout in a playoff setting, which calls for poise and experience. Metrics over a partial season are just about worthless for inexperienced players in a playoff setting. Your perception is not reality. Reddick still has inexperience poise issues, as was evident tonight and during the recent adjustment from the new book on Reddick. Injuries would be the only reason to play Reddick over Drew, in the post season. Your claim that Reddick is the realistic choice is not realistic if Drew is healthy enough to play.     The hope is that Boston will face the Tigers, as they match up well against them. NY will have their hands full with TX, a team I think you are underestimating. I don't underestimate any team. I study all metrics and have decades of experienc with baseball and athletic competition. The Rangers without Lee are an inferior baseball team in talent. Becuase of variables in a competition that involves both skill and chance, probability always shows that the inferior talent will win a matchup for a minority of the times played. "Hands full" is a meaningless phrase. Yankees were better in regular season and in post season format would beat Rangers at least 6 out of 10 series. I noted the potential for upset, which it would be for an inferior talented Rangers roster. Pretty clear thay are unable to divorce emotion from analysis. I don't want the Yankees to advance as much as any Red Sox fan, and I hope they do not. But I'm not so filled with competitive animus that I don't know a better odds from a weaker one. For entertainment and competitive interest, I would rather see the Red Sox and the Yankees in the ALCS. One can only hope that Tim Wakefield woud not be a part of that potential match-up;)    As for NY/BS match up, looking at seasonal numbers doesn't offer an accurate window into current form. NY starters have been more durable and as a result have logged almost 70% of the staff's total IP. Boston SR is at about 66% but that's deceptive as the injury bug has taken a toll on the pen, which could be very revealing in a short series, especially against NY hitters who excel at working counts. I believe I articulate why post season is different, but why Red Sox match-up well during season and in post season. My analysis is based upon both season and current form in a playoff format. Any pen taxing would be revealed more in a long series, not a short one.      I still like how BS matches up vs. NY, but the edge was clearly greater in the first half.                        You just contradicted yourself. Using segments of regular season to quanitfy the difference in an edge is to ignore the details for the difference over the big sample season in a post-season format.  The Red Sox dominance over the Yankees in the regular season is based upon the match-up of the character of the construction of the two teams. Despite some variables, in a playoff format, the big sample is of a character that is not enough to have a substantial difference on the static factors that make for the difference.
    Posted by 1958lesspaul[/QUOTE]

    1) I don't recognize Reddick as "an easy strike out" in a PO setting.
    Don't confuse inexperience with any perceived inability.
    Since hitting low-water mark (.275 BA/.786 OPS) back in early Sept., he has made adjustments and was at .291/.815 OPS before tonight's game.

    Your perception of Drew is also not reality.
    He has regressed both at the plate and in the field. Besides, he has a busted finger, so it's not likely he'll play.

    2) And I have decades of experience divorcing emotion from analysis. And I say TX can be as dangerous a match-up to Boston as NY.
    TX has one of the best road ERA's in the A.L. They don't have Lee, but Lee was
    7-8 3.67 ERA w/TX (incl. play-offs).
    This can be replaced.
    They didn't have Beltre last year.

    3) Boston won 8 of first 9 meetings with NY. Since then they've played each other even. The reason is the state of the pitching, incl the pen.

    Nothing contradictory about measuring a seasonal avg., which is your criteria, against my choice of using last two months as a better read. The edge Boston had over NY in the first half has been clearly minimized.

    You used Jake's career numbers to project Jake, and that criteria was obviously faulty. Using seasonal averages as opposed to recent form can be just as faulty.
     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from jete02fan. Show jete02fan's posts

    Re: Red Sox v. Yankees is still better than 50/50 ALCS

    In Response to Re: Red Sox v. Yankees is still better than 50/50 ALCS:
    [QUOTE]Disagree with the perceived urgency to play Drew over Redick. His fielding is regressing (still good, but not as good as you perceive). His offense is in total regression. Reddick has better numbers and is healthier. It's a matter of inexperience vs. player aging out. Reddick is the realistic choice. The hope is that Boston will face the Tigers, as they match up well against them. NY will have their hands full with TX, a team I think you are underestimating. As for NY/BS match up, looking at seasonal numbers doesn't offer an accurate window into current form. NY starters have been more durable and as a result have logged almost 70% of the staff's total IP. Boston SR is at about 66% but that's deceptive as the injury bug has taken a toll on the pen, which could be very revealing in a short series, especially against NY hitters who excel at working counts. I still like how BS matches up vs. NY, but the edge was clearly greater in the first half.
    Posted by harness[/QUOTE] well Harn, with their clinch of a playoff spot yesterday, someone will indeed draw the Tiggers..
     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from traven. Show traven's posts

    Re: Red Sox v. Yankees is still better than 50/50 ALCS

    Unfortunately the games are played on the field and not on this board otherwise the Sox could take some much needed rest before the playoffs. :)
     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from ABQDan. Show ABQDan's posts

    Re: Red Sox v. Yankees is still better than 50/50 ALCS

    Sometimes, the important thing is to say what you mean clearly and succinctly.

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from 1958lesspaul. Show 1958lesspaul's posts

    Re: Red Sox v. Yankees is still better than 50/50 ALCS

    Lee was
    7-8 3.67 ERA w/TX (incl. play-offs).
    This can be replaced.

    That single comment reveals how out to lunch you are. On Lee, this cannot be replaced. How old are you.
     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from devildavid. Show devildavid's posts

    Re: Red Sox v. Yankees is still better than 50/50 ALCS

    In Response to Re: Red Sox v. Yankees is still better than 50/50 ALCS:
    [QUOTE]... I study all metrics and have decades of experienc with baseball and athletic competition...
    Posted by 1958lesspaul[/QUOTE]

    Well, aren't you special?



     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from Best.Team.Evah. Show Best.Team.Evah's posts

    Re: Red Sox v. Yankees is still better than 50/50 ALCS

    I love how the children get along here.  It is almost like chuckie cheese.
     
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    Re: Red Sox v. Yankees is still better than 50/50 ALCS

    I don't see the Sox making the ALCS.
     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from harness. Show harness's posts

    Re: Red Sox v. Yankees is still better than 50/50 ALCS

    In Response to Re: Red Sox v. Yankees is still better than 50/50 ALCS:
    [QUOTE]Lee was 7-8 3.67 ERA w/TX ( incl . play-offs). This can be replaced. That single comment reveals how out to lunch you are. On Lee, this cannot be replaced. How old are you.
    Posted by 1958lesspaul[/QUOTE]

    7-8 3.67 ERA is 7-8 3.67 ERA. It's the production, not the author of it.
    Sox starter gave up 4 ER in 7 IP. 5.13 ERA today. The results don't change just because it was Lester.

    Did you just start following baseball?
     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from mfymfy. Show mfymfy's posts

    Re: Red Sox v. Yankees is still better than 50/50 ALCS

    I think 1958lesspaul is watching a different Sox team than I am. And I'm definitely seeing a different Yankee squad than he is. I can't imagine trading any facet of the Yankee team right now for the corresponding part of the Sox--starting, bullpen, offense, production in the clutch, bench, big game mentality, etc. But hey, he says he's the expert.
     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from nhsteven. Show nhsteven's posts

    Re: Red Sox v. Yankees is still better than 50/50 ALCS

    In Response to Re: Red Sox v. Yankees is still better than 50/50 ALCS:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: Red Sox v. Yankees is still better than 50/50 ALCS : 7-8 3.67 ERA is 7-8 3.67 ERA. It's the production, not the author of it. Sox starter gave up 4 ER in 7 IP. 5.13 ERA today. The results don't change just because it was Lester. Did you just start following baseball?
    Posted by harness[/QUOTE]

    I would say yes; his analyses and posts on other threads is laughable. He relies on random probabilities and claiming Bard is better than Robertson (with that 1.14 ERA) based on WHIP (when Hold % might be the barometer, not that I have these #s readily available) is where he lost me; also, while Drew has had a good glove in his career, he has less range now than Reddick. And catching defense even? RS have a better pen when Yankees lead the league in Pen ERA? (Yankees also have a better SP ERA, but I still think the RS have better SP, as does the experts, which I don't claim to be.) And ask Peter Gammons if he thinks Texas & Detroit are inferior.
     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from 1958lesspaul. Show 1958lesspaul's posts

    Re: Red Sox v. Yankees is still better than 50/50 ALCS

    Ask Peter Gammons if Santana is going to Red Sox, when I said Mets. 
     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from 1958lesspaul. Show 1958lesspaul's posts

    Re: Red Sox v. Yankees is still better than 50/50 ALCS

    When Lee can be "replaced", get back to me, old man. 
     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from nhsteven. Show nhsteven's posts

    Re: Red Sox v. Yankees is still better than 50/50 ALCS

    In Response to Re: Red Sox v. Yankees is still better than 50/50 ALCS:
    [QUOTE]Ask Peter Gammons if Santana is going to Red Sox, when I said Mets. 
    Posted by 1958lesspaul[/QUOTE]

    LOL, that clinches it; you're more credible.
     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from harness. Show harness's posts

    Re: Red Sox v. Yankees is still better than 50/50 ALCS

    In Response to Re: Red Sox v. Yankees is still better than 50/50 ALCS:
    [QUOTE]When Lee can be "replaced", get back to me, old man. 
    Posted by 1958lesspaul[/QUOTE]

    3 teams have already replaced Lee, old fool.
    The Tribe is about the same this year as when he had his career year in Cleveland in 2008.

    The M's stunk with or without him.

    He was 4-6 3.98 for TX launching pad.

    Now he resides in the retirement league.
    Here's betting TX will replace his 7-8  3.67 and be a very credible threat.
     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from 1958lesspaul. Show 1958lesspaul's posts

    Re: Red Sox v. Yankees is still better than 50/50 ALCS

    Here's betting you would replace Lee with Wakefield, old fool.
     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from harness. Show harness's posts

    Re: Red Sox v. Yankees is still better than 50/50 ALCS

    Comparing the two makes my case.

    How dare you desecrate a brilliant, innovative guitarist.
    Pray your scripture is lenient.
    You may burn for this!
     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from nhsteven. Show nhsteven's posts

    Re: Red Sox v. Yankees is still better than 50/50 ALCS

    In Response to Re: Red Sox v. Yankees is still better than 50/50 ALCS:
    [QUOTE]Comparing the two makes my case. How dare you desecrate a brilliant, innovative guitarist. Pray your scripture is lenient. You may burn for this!
    Posted by harness[/QUOTE]

    I was thinking the same thing; let him be, he thinks he's an expert.
     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from harness. Show harness's posts

    Re: Red Sox v. Yankees is still better than 50/50 ALCS

    I'll likely dream of Cybil Sheppard tonight, seducing me with the chords of Softy's 1908 Gibson.
     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from nhsteven. Show nhsteven's posts

    Re: Red Sox v. Yankees is still better than 50/50 ALCS

    In Response to Re: Red Sox v. Yankees is still better than 50/50 ALCS:
    [QUOTE]I'll likely dream of Cybil Sheppard tonight, seducing me with the chords of Softy's 1908 Gibson.
    Posted by harness[/QUOTE]

    Ha! Hysterical
     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from 1958lesspaul. Show 1958lesspaul's posts

    Re: Red Sox v. Yankees is still better than 50/50 ALCS

    1918 Gibson O, not 1908. Don't look at women as meat meals.
     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from harness. Show harness's posts

    Re: Red Sox v. Yankees is still better than 50/50 ALCS

    Did that 1918 Gibson sway Frazee out of Ruth? Are there pinstripes inside the echo chamber?
     

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