Re: Report: Sox looking to upgrade at catcher, not happy with salty
posted at 5/2/2013 11:20 PM EDT
In response to BMav's comment:
1) Three days ago Salty had a better CERA than Ross, so that shows you how small the sample sizes are.
I remember at the time of the trade in 2010 being against adding Jarrod Saltalamacchia because his CERA's were very bad compared to his team mates in Texas and Atlanta. Don't remember exactly how bad, but they were bad.
Salty's CERA this season is 3.85. Ross's CERA is a full run less at 2.69. Last year they were terrible compared to Shopach. In 2011 they were terrible compared to Varitek. Just a 0.1 CERA difference will cost you a game or two in a year. But we are talking about a run a game. Even if you discount these numbers somewhat based on bad luck and coincidence, he could be costing us around 5 games a year. Maybe a lot more.
Salty has made awful defensive plays in some of our close losses. Its visible how bad he is. He has yet to throw a runner out. He is an awful catcher defensively and is the biggest flaw on this team.
I wish we had traded him this off season. Making catching changes mid season is a problem. I like a lot of our catchers in the minors, but not sure they are quite ready yet. Lavarnway is close, but not sure. At least Lavarnway knows most of our pitchers.
I don't see a good trade target. I would stick with Salty a while longer while thinking about it a little more, play Ross equal time at least the next month and hope Lavarnway looks ready in a month. Then probably make the change.
CERA can be a misleading stat. But not in these extremes in a 8 year sample size. Its real and its bad news. Calling a game is the job of a catcher. He is playing chess with the hitter. Some catchers are just not smart enough to do it well. And I believe its the most under rated part of baseball stat wise.
2) CERA should never be compared the way you are doing it. Some catch different pitchers more or less often, so it is best to compare catchers with each pitcher- one by one.
3) After April 25, 2012 Salty had a better CERA than the other Sox catchers combined. That's a larger sample size than this year's.
4) Salty's CERA numbers have improved by leaps and bounds with the Sox using your methodology of rating him.
5) Before tonight's game the opponent's have a lower OPS with Salty(.665) catching than Ross (.679).
Big 4 starters :(PA/ OPS)
w salty w ross
Lester (102) .559 (53) .687
Buch (90) .526 (79) .483
Doub (80) .698 (23) .570
Demp (74) .557 (48) .783
Even if you throw out Salty's games with Wake in 2011, his WP+PB rate improved greatly from 2011 to 2012. He had one of the best rates in MLB last year in WP+PB/Innings.
Salty is rated as a great pitch framer.
Salty is a decent hitting catcher in the middle of the pack in catcher OPS.