# Rethinking 2013

1. You have chosen to ignore posts from Joebreidey. Show Joebreidey's posts

Re: Rethinking 2013

In response to SpacemanEephus' comment:

In response to Joebreidey's comment:

We need more than just these 5 big "ifs", but tell me the odds of flipping a coin and getting 5 heads in a row?

Yes, we need more than these 5 big ifs.  In order for any team to succeed, it needs relative success from all strata on its roster.  no doubt.  But these 5, given the moves of the off-season vis-a-vis addressing performance needs, are the keys (in my mind).

And I dont see these ifs being as binary as coin flips.  I suppose lackey might be 50/50, and, sure, health is always uncertain.  But given respective histories, I see these ifs as likely positive outcomes.

Yup.  Every team has question marks.  If you did the odds this way, you can make a case for -0- teams making the playoffs.

The best way to go about it to add up all the OPS's and OPSa, with risk factors, expected number of games, replacement values, and come up with expected RS and RA.  Use Py to determine the record.

I am picking up what you are putting down Joe.  Lets do that ... well ... would you mind doing it?  ;)

I already did.  767 runs scored, 676 against.

• You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

Re: Rethinking 2013

We need more than just these 5 big "ifs", but tell me the odds of flipping a coin and getting 5 heads in a row?

[/QUOTE]

Yes, we need more than these 5 big ifs.  In order for any team to succeed, it needs relative success from all strata on its roster.  no doubt.  But these 5, given the moves of the off-season vis-a-vis addressing performance needs, are the keys (in my mind).

And I dont see these ifs being as binary as coin flips.  I suppose lackey might be 50/50, and, sure, health is always uncertain.  But given respective histories, I see these ifs as likely positive outcomes.

Yup.  Every team has question marks.  If you did the odds this way, you can make a case for -0- teams making the playoffs.

Vegas does a pretty good job laying the odds. I'll trust them for now.

• You have chosen to ignore posts from Joebreidey. Show Joebreidey's posts

Re: Rethinking 2013

In response to moonslav59's comment:

We need more than just these 5 big "ifs", but tell me the odds of flipping a coin and getting 5 heads in a row?

Yes, we need more than these 5 big ifs.  In order for any team to succeed, it needs relative success from all strata on its roster.  no doubt.  But these 5, given the moves of the off-season vis-a-vis addressing performance needs, are the keys (in my mind).

And I dont see these ifs being as binary as coin flips.  I suppose lackey might be 50/50, and, sure, health is always uncertain.  But given respective histories, I see these ifs as likely positive outcomes.

Yup.  Every team has question marks.  If you did the odds this way, you can make a case for -0- teams making the playoffs.

Vegas does a pretty good job laying the odds. I'll trust them for now.

The odds are meaningless since they are a flat ripoff.  Under/overs have to be precise.  LMK when they come out.

•
• This post has been removed.

• You have chosen to ignore posts from Beantowne. Show Beantowne's posts

Re: Rethinking 2013

It continues to surprises me that the tenor of most of threads continue to be very critical and pessimistic. The odds of the Sox making the playoffs or winning the World Series in 2013 are low and that shouldn't come as a surprise to any of us. What I find puzzling is not the prediction of gloom. More so the lack of understanding of the complexities of retooling a club and the amount of work Cherington has to do to return the team to being among the best in the game.

News flash it might be time for many of you to rethink our short term expectations of this team. Cherington is charged with a pretty daunting task and if we the fans are in a championship or bust  mindset. We're all in for a very long season...

My only hope for 2013 is that the players show up to the park everyday, play hard and leave it on the field. while conducting themselves like professionals. I'm done with the drama that has been this team for the better part of the last 4 years. I'd like to got to bed every night this season knowing that the reason we lost was due to being outplayed by the opposition. Not because the players and the manager put their selfish needs ahead of the team...

Hope springs eternal....I can't wait to see Middlebrooks swing the bat and hopefully he lives up to the hype and answers one of the many questions related to the retooling of this team...I'm equally excited to see if Lester can return to form and prove to himself and his detractors that 2012 was just a blip on the screen. I get excited thinking about following the progress of our top prospects and I'd love to see a couple of our guys make the jump and get their shot to fulfill what for many is a lifetime dream of wearing a big league uniform. baseball fever, catch it!

• This post has been removed.

• You have chosen to ignore posts from Beantowne. Show Beantowne's posts

Re: Rethinking 2013

In response to Softlaw1's comment:

The Sox won in 2004 and 2007 because they had dominant #1 and #2 pitchers in the rotation

Wrong, and quite ignorant of the facts. There is a huge difference in the regular season and the playoffs. The biggest impact players in the playoffs of 2004 were the Manny and Ortiz affect. In 2007, it was more balanced but JD Drew's biggest moment was but one example of the nonsense that "it was the pitching". If it was "the pitching", they could field a team like Tampa and never win a championship.

NL and AL and regular season and playoffs are managed and played differently. You are one of those old fools who clings to "it's the pitching". It's a combination, but AL ball and home venue put a higher value on everyday position players who create the dynamic for instant offense in the tipping points of individual games.

No matter how it's sliced, nearly 30 million a year for Shane, Ellspuff and Gomes is embarrassing.

soft one....the Red Sox for more than eight decades tried to hit their way to a championship....fact  of matter is that the 2003 through the 2008 seasons the Red Sox had four deep rotations fronted by two top of the rotation starters complimented by deep bullpens with very strong back ends..which in concert with a line up that was 9 deep with professional hitters with complimentary players on the bench...the Sox don't win in either year if they lacked the pitching to hold leads provided by our stout offense. In 2004 Manny was named the MVP when in the rye guy that should have won it was Foulke. end of the day, you're far to savvy to dismiss the value of pitching in the postseason..As Keshawn would say...Come on man!

• This post has been removed.

• You have chosen to ignore posts from Hfxsoxnut. Show Hfxsoxnut's posts

Re: Rethinking 2013

In response to Beantowne's comment:

It continues to surprises me that the tenor of most of threads continue to be very critical and pessimistic. The odds of the Sox making the playoffs or winning the World Series in 2013 are low and that shouldn't come as a surprise to any of us. What I find puzzling is not the prediction of gloom. More so the lack of understanding of the complexities of retooling a club and the amount of work Cherington has to do to return the team to being among the best in the game.

News flash it might be time for many of you to rethink our short term expectations of this team. Cherington is charged with a pretty daunting task and if we the fans are in a championship or bust  mindset. We're all in for a very long season...

My only hope for 2013 is that the players show up to the park everyday, play hard and leave it on the field. while conducting themselves like professionals. I'm done with the drama that has been this team for the better part of the last 4 years. I'd like to got to bed every night this season knowing that the reason we lost was due to being outplayed by the opposition. Not because the players and the manager put their selfish needs ahead of the team...

Hope springs eternal....I can't wait to see Middlebrooks swing the bat and hopefully he lives up to the hype and answers one of the many questions related to the retooling of this team...I'm equally excited to see if Lester can return to form and prove to himself and his detractors that 2012 was just a blip on the screen. I get excited thinking about following the progress of our top prospects and I'd love to see a couple of our guys make the jump and get their shot to fulfill what for many is a lifetime dream of wearing a big league uniform. baseball fever, catch it!

Great post, Beantowne.

• This post has been removed.

• You have chosen to ignore posts from Sheriff-Rojas. Show Sheriff-Rojas's posts

Re: Rethinking 2013

In response to Beantowne's comment:

In response to Softlaw1's comment:

The Sox won in 2004 and 2007 because they had dominant #1 and #2 pitchers in the rotation

Wrong, and quite ignorant of the facts. There is a huge difference in the regular season and the playoffs. The biggest impact players in the playoffs of 2004 were the Manny and Ortiz affect. In 2007, it was more balanced but JD Drew's biggest moment was but one example of the nonsense that "it was the pitching". If it was "the pitching", they could field a team like Tampa and never win a championship.

NL and AL and regular season and playoffs are managed and played differently. You are one of those old fools who clings to "it's the pitching". It's a combination, but AL ball and home venue put a higher value on everyday position players who create the dynamic for instant offense in the tipping points of individual games.

No matter how it's sliced, nearly 30 million a year for Shane, Ellspuff and Gomes is embarrassing.

soft one....the Red Sox for more than eight decades tried to hit their way to a championship....fact  of matter is that the 2003 through the 2008 seasons the Red Sox had four deep rotations fronted by two top of the rotation starters complimented by deep bullpens with very strong back ends..which in concert with a line up that was 9 deep with professional hitters with complimentary players on the bench...the Sox don't win in either year if they lacked the pitching to hold leads provided by our stout offense. In 2004 Manny was named the MVP when in the rye guy that should have won it was Foulke. end of the day, you're far to savvy to dismiss the value of pitching in the postseason..As Keshawn would say...Come on man!

Yeh, like Derek Lowe didn't have anything to do with 2004 post-season success, or Josh Beckett, Schill, Oki, and Paps roles were irrelevant in 2007.  Seems like Softy is practicing his lawyering on this site, arguing the most pathetic cases just for some pathological thrill.

• You have chosen to ignore posts from Sheriff-Rojas. Show Sheriff-Rojas's posts

Re: Rethinking 2013

In response to Alibiike's comment:

Perhaps I have been too harsh on young Ben being blinded by my thinking only star players can help this team win. I suppose I jumped on the entitlement bandwagon, as I believe many have since 2007, including the players.

A complete makeover was necessary for this team and I now believe that's what Ben is trying to do. IMO, 3 key elements have been missing since our championship in2007, which are; heart, character, and chemistry

The players that Ben has acquired are by no means stars but I think these may be the guys that can restore some of those 3 intangibles. These guys also want to prove that they still belong and can contribute in a big way.

I have failed to be a team player and for that, I apologize. I would love to see another 2004 season.

What is this?  Are you taking your cues and inspired by the George Costanza "Opposite" episode?  Is this like Mitt Romney's surprise manuever to the moderate position in the first debate?  Have you hacked into alibiike's account and are messing with us?  Are you schizophrenic and now revealing your other side?  What the hell is going on around here?

• You have chosen to ignore posts from Sheriff-Rojas. Show Sheriff-Rojas's posts

Re: Rethinking 2013

In response to moonslav59's comment:

In response to SpacemanEephus' comment:

In response to moonslav59's comment:

In response to Softlaw1's comment:

The best chance for a 2004 is to acquire J. Upton, to replace some of the impact that Manny had. Then, will need to hope that Ortiz isn't already washed up. Then, will need to hope that Lester and Buch and Napoli and Dumpster earn their money. A lot of ifs, but 2004 was a miracle comeback so dreaming is better than being realistically despondent about 150 million plus payroll that has nothing mroe than "bubbly playoff team" expectations.

Too many "ifs" even if we get Upton.

2013 is over already.

We don't need Upton.

Here are the "ifs" necessary for a playoff-contending team:

IF Papi is healthy

IF Lester and Buchholz pull it together

IF Ellsbury stays healthy

IF bionic Lackey is better than pre-op Lackey

Those are big ifs, but it is not really that many.

We need more than just these 5 big "ifs", but tell me the odds of flipping a coin and getting 5 heads in a row?

1 in 32.

Maybe we'll see something happen like in the opening scene of Rosencrantz & Guildenstern are Dead.

• You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

Re: Rethinking 2013

Doesn't everyone agree that

1) Lester is capable of winning 17, Buch 15, lackey 15, dubront 13, dempster 13, the bullpen is capable of winning 12, and the 6-8 starters are capable of winning 8.  Isn't that close to their career norms?  I have not checked, but I do not think this is a stretch.  That is 93 wins.

2) the lineup is certainly capable of being in the top 2-3 in the AL in runs.  Isn't that enough?

Injuries and/or bad playing also can mean another 2012.  Lets all hope some of these guys play like they are capable.

Yes, this can happen, but what are the chances even half of this comes true?

What's the chances non of our starters win over 12-14 games?

• This post has been removed.

• You have chosen to ignore posts from EnchiladaT. Show EnchiladaT's posts

Re: Rethinking 2013

In response to EdithBRTN's comment:

A lawyer should know the difference between affect and effect. You are a fraud, troll, and never was a Red Sox fan. To be specific, you are a "concern troll".

You are a "grammar troll"

Urban Dictionary: grammar troll

"Trolls often go by multiple names to circumvent getting banned." Urban Dictionary

• You have chosen to ignore posts from Beantowne. Show Beantowne's posts

Re: Rethinking 2013

In response to moonslav59's comment:

Doesn't everyone agree that

1) Lester is capable of winning 17, Buch 15, lackey 15, dubront 13, dempster 13, the bullpen is capable of winning 12, and the 6-8 starters are capable of winning 8.  Isn't that close to their career norms?  I have not checked, but I do not think this is a stretch.  That is 93 wins.

2) the lineup is certainly capable of being in the top 2-3 in the AL in runs.  Isn't that enough?

Injuries and/or bad playing also can mean another 2012.  Lets all hope some of these guys play like they are capable.

Yes, this can happen, but what are the chances even half of this comes true?

What's the chances non of our starters win over 12-14 games?

Moon,

You're begining to slide into the abiss. I'm begin to worry about you dude...I think you're under estimation of the determantion of the players to succeed is being colored by your pessimistic outlook.

1) Jon Lester's is healthy and finished 2012 on a decent run. Giving hope that with Farrel back in the fold to help him to fix some of the mechanical flaws and help him to get back on track. Gives me hope that there's no reason to believe, if he truly comes to camp with the mindset that he is the leader of the staff and is driven to erase the memories of 2012. That he can't regain his former CY level performance.

2) Buccholz it's not a question of stuff...it's health. With an entire offseason of good health I see no reason he can't come to camp and be a very strong #2 out ofthe gate...

3) Dempster comes with a resume of a guy that's pitched in a hitters park for the last 5 years and during that time has established himself as a durable middle ofthe rotation starter....if the give the Sox 30 starts & 200 innings with an ERA around 4ish with our pen we'll win more than our share of the games he starts...

4) Doubront...In the end it's about his taking the next step in his development...the kid pitched pretty well last year and there's no reason to believe he can't duplicate his performance...

5) Lackey...see my opening comments. While it might take him the better part of the first half to find his rythem, if healthy. The guys a bulldog and anyone that questions his heart and determanation need only look at his actions when the coach comes to the mound to take the ball. He pitched an entire season with pain in his elbow and not once did he complain in public or use it as an excuse.

6) Morales...I'm bullish on him after seeing how well he performed once inserted in the rotation last year...my only concern with him is related to his shoulder. Though I do see him as an intergral part of our late innings set-up guys...if one of the above go down before the season begins...I'd be fine opening the season with him taking the ball every 5 days...

7) Aceves...if not traded is invaluable in the big picture, if he embraces the role he had in 2011...4 or 5 spot starts during the year and serving as our middle innings eater...with the moixy to handle the late innings to boot...

8) Tazawa...the kids got the stuff to compete at the big league level. The question remains whether or not his future lies in the bullpen or will he be stretched out and start the year in AAA. To serve as organizational depth.

That's eight deep and my guess is that as they get closer to spring training they'll add another veteran to the mix...

While I get that each of them come with caviats attached...combined they have to potential to be a very solid rotation and it's not our of the realm of probability that 3 or 4 of them win in excess of 15 games...Though for me the value is more in the overall pct of starts made and innings pitched...if our top 5 average 30 starts & 190 innings...that leaves table scraps for the rest of the group to pick up and hopefully allows us to maange the workload on the pen..with an ideal split of 1000 innings out of the starters and 500 or so from the pen...

Our lineup is still a work in progress with the Napoli deal, the axis on which the final make up of the lineup and the roster hinges...If he's in the fold then we're pretty much set if his hip condition was such that there's even a remote chance he would miss time in 2013 with they would have already cut bait...assuming he's on board...

Ellsbury...end of the day this is his year to make hay. He should benefit from an entire offseason of health and come to camp with steely eyed focus...

Pedrioa; is now the undisputed leader of the team and I've little concern that he won't show up ready to play...

Ortiz; write it down....275-375-525-900 with 25 Hr -100 RBI

Napoli...30-100 if he's on the squad (Upton?)

Middlebrooks; man am I excited to see this kid hit 25 homers-90 RBI hitting 280 ish is the top end...

Salty/Ross...Write it down 35 homers-80 RBI and 150 K's combined...

Gomes/Nava...30 homers-90 RBI solid platton....

Drew...250 ish with 350 OBP "professional hitter" playing for his professinal life...

Victorino .270-350....with 25 steals from the 9-hole

any and all of the above is possible...perhaps you might want to try to see the positives in the coming year and let the transgressions of the former GM fade to black...

• You have chosen to ignore posts from garyhow. Show garyhow's posts

Re: Rethinking 2013

Beantowne I'm w/ u. RS have had some bad luck the past few years w/ injuries or just plain underperforming. One of these years things will break right for RS why not 2013? Look O's won 69 games in 2011 and were able to make playoffs in 2012. RS IMO have more talent than O's. Why can't RS bullpen be as dominant as O's pen was last year [we do have 2 allstar closers in there] who predicted the A's would make playoffs last year? Don't understand all the pessimism on this board. Have RS fans really become this spoiled after basically 10 years of 90+ wins per season, we get [1] really bad season where nothing goes right and suddenly we're cellar dwellars for ever? there is still alot of talent on this team Ortiz/Pedroia/Middlebrooks/Ellsbury/Lester/Buchholz/ Hanrahan/Bailey/Drew/Salty or even Lackey are all capable of making an allstar team.I know its more likely the RS finish 2nd or 3rd, but I would prefer the glass half full and go into season with some hope that the RS have a legitimate chance to make playoffs. Funny how many people jumped on RS bandwagon starting in 03-04 and how quickly they can jump off?

• You have chosen to ignore posts from CTChris. Show CTChris's posts

Re: Rethinking 2013

In response to Joebreidey's comment:

I already did.  767 runs scored, 676 against.

Based on last season's AL numbers, that would rank the Sox #3 in runs scored and tied for 6th in run prevention.

IF what you say comes to pass, then I'd say the Sox will be competitive. Not necessarily outstanding, but those numbers should mean they'll be playing in meaningful games later in the season.

I'll take competitive.....for now.

• You have chosen to ignore posts from Hfxsoxnut. Show Hfxsoxnut's posts

Re: Rethinking 2013

In response to CTChris' comment:

In response to Joebreidey's comment:

I already did.  767 runs scored, 676 against.

Based on last season's AL numbers, that would rank the Sox #3 in runs scored and tied for 6th in run prevention.

IF what you say comes to pass, then I'd say the Sox will be competitive. Not necessarily outstanding, but those numbers should mean they'll be playing in meaningful games later in the season.

I'll take competitive.....for now.

Hey Chris, good to see you here man.

• You have chosen to ignore posts from SonicsMonksLyresVicars. Show SonicsMonksLyresVicars's posts

Re: Rethinking 2013

In response to Alibiike's comment:

Perhaps I have been too harsh on young Ben being blinded by my thinking only star players can help this team win. I suppose I jumped on the entitlement bandwagon, as I believe many have since 2007, including the players.

A complete makeover was necessary for this team and I now believe that's what Ben is trying to do. IMO, 3 key elements have been missing since our championship in2007, which are; heart, character, and chemistry

The players that Ben has acquired are by no means stars but I think these may be the guys that can restore some of those 3 intangibles. These guys also want to prove that they still belong and can contribute in a big way.

I have failed to be a team player and for that, I apologize. I would love to see another 2004 season.

I tip my cap to you Ike.  Even if you were "right" before and "wrong" now it takes a big man to be willing to change views publically.

Under the circumstances, I'm happy with what the Sox have done. There was not a single big name/money FA available I wanted the Sox to spend many years and millions on.   I think the Sox will have a competetive team in 2013, I agree with you re intangibles, and the investment re years is low and re draft picks zero.  And if things do go wrong we may be able to deal some of the new and/or old guys in the summer for prospects.

• You have chosen to ignore posts from CTChris. Show CTChris's posts

Re: Rethinking 2013

In response to Hfxsoxnut's comment:

In response to CTChris' comment:

In response to Joebreidey's comment:

I already did.  767 runs scored, 676 against.

Based on last season's AL numbers, that would rank the Sox #3 in runs scored and tied for 6th in run prevention.

IF what you say comes to pass, then I'd say the Sox will be competitive. Not necessarily outstanding, but those numbers should mean they'll be playing in meaningful games later in the season.

I'll take competitive.....for now.

Hey Chris, good to see you here man.

Thanks Hfx....although I gotta say I've been hesitant to come back here. The last time I posted something Kimsaysthis called me a Yankee troll LOL

I've since learned that isn't anything to be surprised about :-)

• You have chosen to ignore posts from Beantowne. Show Beantowne's posts

Re: Rethinking 2013

In response to Hfxsoxnut's comment:

In response to CTChris' comment:

In response to Joebreidey's comment:

I already did.  767 runs scored, 676 against.

Based on last season's AL numbers, that would rank the Sox #3 in runs scored and tied for 6th in run prevention.

IF what you say comes to pass, then I'd say the Sox will be competitive. Not necessarily outstanding, but those numbers should mean they'll be playing in meaningful games later in the season.

I'll take competitive.....for now.

Hey Chris, good to see you here man.

Indeed it is Happy New Year my man!

I think competitive is the operative word for the team in the next 2 or 3 years while they retool the nucleaus.

• You have chosen to ignore posts from CTChris. Show CTChris's posts

Re: Rethinking 2013

In response to Beantowne's comment:

In response to Hfxsoxnut's comment:

In response to CTChris' comment:

In response to Joebreidey's comment:

I already did.  767 runs scored, 676 against.

Based on last season's AL numbers, that would rank the Sox #3 in runs scored and tied for 6th in run prevention.

IF what you say comes to pass, then I'd say the Sox will be competitive. Not necessarily outstanding, but those numbers should mean they'll be playing in meaningful games later in the season.

I'll take competitive.....for now.

Hey Chris, good to see you here man.

Indeed it is Happy New Year my man!

I think competitive is the operative word for the team in the next 2 or 3 years while they retool the nucleaus.

Thanks Bean. HNY to you as well. Nice to see you still around here.....and I agree. "Competitive" probably is the operative word. I have no problem with that. While expectations shouldn't be at an all time high, it should be noted that good things can happen to competitive teams.

• You have chosen to ignore posts from J-BAY. Show J-BAY's posts

Re: Rethinking 2013

In response to CTChris' comment:

In response to Hfxsoxnut's comment:

In response to CTChris' comment:

In response to Joebreidey's comment:

I already did.  767 runs scored, 676 against.

Based on last season's AL numbers, that would rank the Sox #3 in runs scored and tied for 6th in run prevention.

IF what you say comes to pass, then I'd say the Sox will be competitive. Not necessarily outstanding, but those numbers should mean they'll be playing in meaningful games later in the season.

I'll take competitive.....for now.

Hey Chris, good to see you here man.

Thanks Hfx....although I gotta say I've been hesitant to come back here. The last time I posted something Kimsaysthis called me a Yankee troll LOL

I've since learned that isn't anything to be surprised about :-)

When you're not called a Yankee troll here, is the time to worry;) Stick around, Chris

• Sections
Shortcuts