Right handed Power Hitter?

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    [QUOTE]Dont everyone get too excited about Middlebrooks..Although I think the kid is good, his K rate is way too high to even think about playing in the big show and hes doing no better this winter..If he doesnt become a more patient hitter, hes going to have a hard time making the team..I for one hope he turns that around in Pawtucket this year or else we may have to pick up Youks option for 2013..
    Posted by southpaw777[/QUOTE]
    Compare these career minor league numbers:

    Player A 1606 PA, .272/.330/.440/.770, 121 BB (7.5%), 431 K (26.8%)
    Player B
    1393 PA, .280/.360/.525/.885. 135 BB (9.7%), 322 K (23.1%)

    Player A is Will Middlebrooks and Player B is Baltimore thirdbaseman Mark Reynolds, who skipped Triple A and made his MLB debut at Middlebrooks' current age of 23. Reynolds* has maintained value at the MLB level despite striking out in 33.1 percent of his plate appearances (an average of 208.5 a season over the past four years).

    I hope Will Middlebrooks has a productive MLB career, but I agree with southpaw777 that we should temper our expectations.
     
    * I picked Mark Reynolds for comparison because Boston Globe columnist Nick Cafardo in July wrote that Will Middlebrooks "always will have a healthy number of strikeouts, he’s never going to be Mark Reynolds bad." http://articles.boston.com/2011-07-11/sports/29761811_1_middlebrooks-number-of-power-hitters-difficult-position/2
     
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    In response to "Re: Right handed Power Hitter?": [QUOTE]In Response to Re: Right handed Power Hitter? : Compare these career minor league numbers: Player A 1606 PA, .272/.330/.440/.770, 121 BB (7.5%), 431 K (26.8%) Player B 1393 PA, .280/.360/.525/.885. 135 BB (9.7%), 322 K (23.1%) Player A is Will Middlebrooks and Player B is Baltimore's Mark Reynolds, who skipped Triple A and made his MLB debut at Middlebrooks' current age of 23. Reynolds has maintained value at the MLB level despite striking out in 33.1 percent of his plate appearances (an average of 208.5 a season over the past four years). I hope Will Middlebrooks has a productive MLB career, but I agree with southpaw777 that we should temper our expectations. Posted by hill55[/QUOTE] Nice comparative stats, as usual, Hill...you definitely know how to put things in perspective...I've had the opportunity to see Middlebrooks quite a few times and there is just something (intangible I guess) that I like about the kid....obviously I could be way off, but I really hope they don't move him...
     
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    [QUOTE]I've been saying all offseason and now that Kalish will miss at least first few months of regular season, why don't we trade for Alfonso Soriano, and Cubs paying 2/3 of his remaining salary as compensation for Theo.  If Cubs' asking price for Soriano is acceptable and agree to pay Soriano's 2/3 of remainder, I wouldn't mind Soriano at RF and Sweeney being the 4th OFer.  We will have offense and defense at RF.
    Posted by seannybboi[/QUOTE]

         Soriano is an old, over-priced, overrated "has-been", with a terrible on base percentage. OBP is what has driven the Sox offensive philosophy over the past decade.

         For some unknown reason, management went away from that philosophy when they made that horrible Carl Crawford deal. Crawford can't hit at the top of the line-up because he doesn't get on base enough. He rarely walks. He can't hit in the middle of the line-up, because he doesn't hit for power. We don't need any more Carl Crawfords in Boston.

         It boggles the mind knowing that the Sox are stuck paying him $20mil. per season...for 6 more years.   
     
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    [QUOTE]In response to "Re: Right handed Power Hitter?": Nice comparative stats, as usual, Hill...you definitely know how to put things in perspective...I've had the opportunity to see Middlebrooks quite a few times and there is just something (intangible I guess) that I like about the kid....obviously I could be way off, but I really hope they don't move him...
    Posted by jasko2248[/QUOTE]

    Hill often gives us a useful & unique view. Greatly appreciated by most of us.

    I haven't seen Middlebrooks play, but from what I have heard, this guy Cecchini might pass him on the depth charts this year.

     
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    In response to "Re: Right handed Power Hitter?": [QUOTE]In Response to Re: Right handed Power Hitter? : Hill often gives us a useful & unique view. Greatly appreciated by most of us. I haven't seen Middlebrooks play, but from what I have heard, this guy Cecchini might pass him on the depth charts this year. Posted by moonslav59[/QUOTE] Yeah, Cecchini is a big athletic kid who is still filling out at age 20. I plan to see him play this year at some point. He may very well pass Middlebrooks soon, if he hasn't already. Either way, its nice to have some depth at 3rd with Youk's stay as every day 3rd baseman here likely no more than a year or two...Youk would obviously benefit going back to first.
     
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    [QUOTE]In response to "Re: Right handed Power Hitter?": Yeah, Cecchini is a big athletic kid who is still filling out at age 20. I plan to see him play this year at some point. He may very well pass Middlebrooks soon, if he hasn't already. Either way, its nice to have some depth at 3rd with Youk's stay as every day 3rd baseman here likely no more than a year or two...Youk would obviously benefit going back to first.
    Posted by jasko2248[/QUOTE]

    I think he has passed him on some top prospect's lists, but I meant for the ML roster depth chart (MLB readiness).

     
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    Re: Right handed Power Hitter?

    Why would Arizona make that deal?

    They have Upton locked up for 4 more years through age 27 - younger than Ellsbury is today.  Unless those "blocked prospects

    2 reasons. Long term cost/flexibility and additional players

    2012 Upton 6.75 M  Ellsbury 8 to 10M
    2012 Upton 9.75 M  Ellsbury 8 to 10M

    2013 Upton 14.25M  Ellsbury (Resign or take 2 Draft picks)
    2014 Upton 14.25M 
    2015 Upton 14.5 M

    DBacks have Young until 2015, if they want him that long. This deal gives DBacks ability to cut costs and avoid Upton balloon payments and Ellsbury FA cost, yet nets 4 or 5 high level prospects through trade and draft. At the same time, DBacks improve team balance for 2012 and 2013.

    Ellsbury is a better fit for Dbacks, Upton is a better fit for Red Sox. Dbacks increase payroll only slightly for 2012 and 2013, but get 2 or 3 upper tier prospects who would likely provide 1 or 2 players to help immediately in 2012 and/or 2013 and beyond. Red Sox cut payroll for 2012, slightly, ship out 2 or 3 blocked/oversupply position and/or 2nd tier ranked pitching prospects.

    By offering Ellsbury's 2 years of control, the Red Sox can top any offer from other MLB teams. It is a deal that works well for both teams and markets, and puts both players in the correct league for value purposes.

    Some advocate paying Wastefield and Varitek millions and make general comments about "we need pitching" and "offense is one of best in AL".

    Oh, and on Oswalt, I want Moonsunk to state how much to offer this great mid 30's NL wonder. My offer was designed for a list of more than a half dozen starters. In Oswalt's case, there is always a chance he might take 1 to 2M and a year plus incentives to play for a team he may consider a potential contender and team he would like to play for. Bottom line, market overpays for him if they go higher than that. Oswalt is most certainly not very important in terms of market focus.
     
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    [QUOTE]Why would Arizona make that deal? They have Upton locked up for 4 more years through age 27 - younger than Ellsbury is today.  Unless those "blocked prospects 2 reasons. Long term cost/flexibility and additional players 2012 Upton 6.75 M  Ellsbury 8 to 10M 2012 Upton 9.75 M  Ellsbury 8 to 10M 2013 Upton 14.25M  Ellsbury (Resign or take 2 Draft picks) 2014 Upton 14.25M  2015 Upton 14.5 M DBacks have Young until 2015, if they want him that long. This deal gives DBacks ability to cut costs and avoid Upton balloon payments and Ellsbury FA cost, yet nets 4 or 5 high level prospects through trade and draft. At the same time, DBacks improve team balance for 2012 and 2013. Ellsbury is a better fit for Dbacks, Upton is a better fit for Red Sox. Dbacks increase payroll only slightly for 2012 and 2013, but get 2 or 3 upper tier prospects who would likely provide 1 or 2 players to help immediately in 2012 and/or 2013 and beyond. Red Sox cut payroll for 2012, slightly, ship out 2 or 3 blocked/oversupply position and/or 2nd tier ranked pitching prospects. By offering Ellsbury's 2 years of control, the Red Sox can top any offer from other MLB teams. It is a deal that works well for both teams and markets, and puts both players in the correct league for value purposes. Some advocate paying Wastefield and Varitek millions and make general comments about "we need pitching" and "offense is one of best in AL". Oh, and on Oswalt, I want Moonsunk to state how much to offer this great mid 30's NL wonder. My offer was designed for a list of more than a half dozen starters. In Oswalt's case, there is always a chance he might take 1 to 2M and a year plus incentives to play for a team he may consider a potential contender and team he would like to play for. Bottom line, market overpays for him if they go higher than that. Oswalt is most certainly not very important in terms of market focus.
    Posted by hankwilliamsjr[/QUOTE]

    You always say "Ellsbury makes more sense for Team X" but never actually explain why.  And the major trouble with that unsupported throwaway argument here is how you can possibly explain why the Team MVP of the reigning NL West champion makes less sense for their team than the older, more expensive guy with exactly one stellar sseason under his belt and whose primary position is already occupied for 4 more years?  If the goal was to avoid Upton's ballon payment, there is still time.  Although they might not want to.  Why do fans think teams are so scared of these deals they make, and so sonn after they make them?  Do they think GMs, right after signing a player, walk out of the meeting and scream "What have I DONE!?!?"

    I mean, if you get right down to it, Ellsbury for Ryan Braun is a deal that makes way more sense for Milwaukee than this deal does for Arizona, and I seriously doubt Milwaukee is too excited about it ,either.  But at least the Brewers need a CF and Braun has had days when he looked better in the eyes of his superiors.

    Your problem is your loathing of Ellsbury has completely clouded your very simple imagination.  Want a deal for Ellsbury that makes sense for BOTH teams, and even gets the Sox a RH power hitter? 

    Ellsbury to Washington for Ryan Zimmerman.

    THe Nationals need CF help to the point where they considered dealing Drew Storen for Deanrd Span.  Zimmerman (owed $29mill over the next 2 years) is tough to part with, but they do have his replacemtn already on board in Anthony Rendon.  I know Rendon was only drafted last year and hasn't played yet, but so what?  Zimmerman was starting in MLB the same eyar he was drafted, and is the only postion player in MLB who can make that claim.  Given the frequent comparisons to Zimmerman and Longoria, one would think Rendon could be rished similarly aswell.

    Naturally, this makes Youkilis expendable, although it would not have had Cherington listened to my pleas not to offer arbitration to Ortiz!  (When it comes to listeing to me, this new guy is no better than Theo!) 
     
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    Re: Right handed Power Hitter?

    Ellsbury to Washington for Ryan Zimmerman.

    Ha aha aha aha aha ahah@@@@@@@@!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    With what is in place, you have no crediblity!

    And your comment of "still have time to avoid balloon payments" is quite amusing. The trade value goes down, one year from now. And Young plus Ellsbury for 2 years fits better than Upton plus Young for extra years of giant balloon payments.

    Ellsbury is going to be traded, and you can bet that it will be done at the worst possible time. See Jed Lowsie.
     
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    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: Right handed Power Hitter? : You always say "Ellsbury makes more sense for Team X" but never actually explain why.  And the major trouble with that unsupported throwaway argument here is how you can possibly explain why the Team MVP of the reigning NL West champion makes less sense for their team than the older, more expensive guy with exactly one stellar sseason under his belt and whose primary position is already occupied for 4 more years?  If the goal was to avoid Upton's ballon payment, there is still time.  Although they might not want to.  Why do fans think teams are so scared of these deals they make, and so sonn after they make them?  Do they think GMs, right after signing a player, walk out of the meeting and scream "What have I DONE!?!?" I mean, if you get right down to it, Ellsbury for Ryan Braun is a deal that makes way more sense for Milwaukee than this deal does for Arizona, and I seriously doubt Milwaukee is too excited about it ,either.  But at least the Brewers need a CF and Braun has had days when he looked better in the eyes of his superiors. Your problem is your loathing of Ellsbury has completely clouded your very simple imagination.  Want a deal for Ellsbury that makes sense for BOTH teams, and even gets the Sox a RH power hitter?  Ellsbury to Washington for Ryan Zimmerman. THe Nationals need CF help to the point where they considered dealing Drew Storen for Deanrd Span.  Zimmerman (owed $29mill over the next 2 years) is tough to part with, but they do have his replacemtn already on board in Anthony Rendon.  I know Rendon was only drafted last year and hasn't played yet, but so what?  Zimmerman was starting in MLB the same eyar he was drafted, and is the only postion player in MLB who can make that claim.  Given the frequent comparisons to Zimmerman and Longoria, one would think Rendon could be rished similarly aswell. Naturally, this makes Youkilis expendable, although it would not have had Cherington listened to my pleas not to offer arbitration to Ortiz!  (When it comes to listeing to me, this new guy is no better than Theo!) 
    Posted by notin[/QUOTE]

    Mr. hanky has been saying trade "Jake while his stock is high" for over 3 years now. His stock has kept going higher and higher since his first rant.
    (He even tried to say his stock was just as high after 2010 as before.)

    The fact is, if Upton is all he seems to be (and believe me, I'd trade Jacoby and the presumed* "blocked prospects" of Lars Anderson (1B) and Tejada (2B) for Jacoby), he will be worth more than $14.5M at the end years of his deal. His trade value will still be high (not as high as now), so one could look at it like this:

    2 years of Jake (est.$20-25M) and 2 draft picks.
    2 years of Upton ($16.5M) and then trade him ($29M/2 yrs left) for something very useful.
    We save $5-10M over the next 2 years (huge for a team trying to stay under the tax limit) and get better trade return for Upton than we get with 2 draft picks.

    I'd do this deal, but don't see why AZ would. Az will never re-sign Jacoby, so they get just 2 years and 2 draft picks, and questionable prospects. Unless, mr. hanky's presumed* prospects are someone other than what I listed.

     *hard to presume anything with the vagaries of mr. hanky. (He'll never name the names, because then when they do great, it can't come back and bite him in the you know what.)

     
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    [QUOTE]Ellsbury to Washington for Ryan Zimmerman. Ha aha aha aha aha ahah@@@@@@@@!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! With what is in place, you have no crediblity! And your comment of "still have time to avoid balloon payments" is quite amusing. The trade value goes down, one year from now. And Young plus Ellsbury for 2 years fits better than Upton plus Young for extra years of giant balloon payments. Ellsbury is going to be traded, and you can bet that it will be done at the worst possible time. See Jed Lowsie.
    Posted by hankwilliamsjr[/QUOTE]

    I guess I should believe you on the subject of not having credibility; it’s one area you do excel in. 
    The Diamondbacks are not trading Upton.  Book it.   Bookmark this post.  He’s going nowhere this year.  And while his “trade value” might go down, his performance relative to the success of the team in the interim certainly will make it worthwhile.  I think you have forgotten the Diamondbacks are in the business of playing baseball, not brokering players for other teams.  Upton is 24 years old, and their best player by a long shot.  The team won their division last year, and he led the way.  It’s a really safe bet the Diamondbacks think of Upton in terms of what he brings to the team as a player, and are far less concerned with him as a trade chip.  They made that very evident last off-season. 

    Trade him for what?  A chance to compete in the future?  THAT’S WHERE THEY ARE NOW!! Are you suggesting they forego their recent success and try to compete when San Diego and LA get their act together as well?  This year, they have added Trevor Cahill and Jason Kubel.  Do they really look like a team ready to break up the core for a short term solution that is not as good as what they have?  And some prospects?  Unlike a lot of teams, the Diamondbacks don’t need to rebuild the farm.  It’s actually quite stacked for them, especially when it comes to pitching.

    Ellsbury might be traded someday.  I’m all for any deal that improves the team, but thinking he suddenly has vaulted to fair trade for the game’s elite players who all are younger and with better track records is laughable.  If I were a GM, I’d be wary of his one season as the outlier.  Any attempt to get him would NOT include someone like Upton. I would certainly not trade a foundation player like Upton for a possible complimentary player like Ellsbury and his one good season at 5 years older.

    And Zimmerman does make more sense.  Do you not read your own logic?  (I don’t blame you if you don’t; I’m thinking about not reading it anymore myself.)  So Upton’s $14mill balloon payments are to be avoided and a reason to deal him?  THAT MONEY IS EQUAL TO WHAT ZIMMERMAN MAKES RIGHT NOW!!!!!   By your logic, the proximity of those payments is indirectly proportional to what he is worth in a trade, right?  And I quote “And your comment of ‘still have time to avoid balloon payments’ is quite amusing. The trade value goes down, one year from now. “  Doesn’t that mean Zimmerman’s trade value is also reduced, and even more significantly?  Or does that only apply to players when you decide it so?

    So the Diamondbacks, who are NOT looking for a CF, need to unload their top guy right now?  Yet the Nationals, who have Zimmerman locked up for less time, and are in a stacked division with Philadelphia and Atlanta not going anywhere in the next two years, and Florida rapidly adding talent, are all set short term?  The Nationals, unlike the Diamondbacks, also already have a replacement in house, and are just seeing their best young players arrive on the scene (Strasburg, Harper, Rendon, Storen, Espinosa), yet they are going to be perfectly willing to hold on to Zimmerman for what reason again?  I’m not saying they want to move him, but he is definitely a more likely candidate than Upton for the very reasons you suggest, plus a lot more.  Because if nothing else, Ellsbury fills a void and saves then $10-12mill in two years and likely gets the same net draft picks in return.  Or is that same level of payroll flexibility only an incentive for the teams you decide want it?  Unlike in the Upton scenario, where Ellsbury costs more short term.  And why you think the Diamondbacks fear paying Upton $14mill at 27 and 28, but are perfectly willing to pay Ellsbury $8-10mill at 28 and 29 is beyond me.

    I’ll be back tomorrow to own you again…

     
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    Re: Right handed Power Hitter?

    Forgive me for going back in time to the 40's and 50's when Ted Williams and Joe DiMaggio were in their primes--this comparison of Ells and Upton--reminds me of that argument. Not the true greatness of Ted and Joe--that goes without saying---they were both dominating in the American League. They both played in ballparks that would have been better suited for the other.

    I think this trade would make  more sense for the Sox than the D'Backs. Upton has led his team to the playoffs more recently. Because we are looking for a RH power hitting OF who plays the position well-it would be a natural fit.

    I am in the same line that believes this is the best of times to trade Ells, if  you have a crystal ball that says Ells is having a career similar to AGon, with AGon's power numbers, then you might wait. I'm inclined to trade now and let someone else be happy with the results as long as the Sox get what they need in return. Because Ben C. trades with his head and not his heart I feel very comfortable saying the Sox will get the best return possible from Ells with Ben making the deal.
     
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    I am also of the opinion, as some others on this thread, that the Sox should accept the offer of Soriano and mega millions for Epstein. We could use him and his power numbers on this team. Play him in LF--how much more harm can he do playing there compared to how poorly CC played there and he's suppose to be an all star outfielder. You've got Sweeney that can replace him late in games if you're concerned about his defense. Next year use Soriano as the DH. 
    Trade Youk to a team that needs a 1 b and is willing to give up a starting pitcher.
    Platoon Aviles and Punto at 3 b until Middlebrooks, Bogaetrs and Cecchini are ready. That's a 3 some the Sox have a lot of hope for.

     
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    Mac, you get it.

    Notin, you don't own anything in this State. You are unable to comprehend basic issues that are clear as a bell. The DBacks don't become non-contenders by making the move, nor is it deal for Ellsbury for Upton. It is deal for 2 or 3 more upper tier prospects that may fit the DBacks better than the Red Sox, called blocked prospects.

    If trades taking place were the basis of the crediblity of the trade offers, then InEpstein and every other small mind would be a baseball genius.

    Mac gets it. The Dbacks did not have what it took to win another title. They have balloon payments coming. If they can get more players and a better fit and win now, Ellsbury plus Young for 2 years, vs. Upton and Young for 1 years plus 3 balloon payment years, and net 2 or 3 solid prospects that provide immediate and near future help, it most certainly is a deal that works well for both teams.


     
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    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: Right handed Power Hitter? : I guess I should believe you on the subject of not having credibility; it’s one area you do excel in.  The Diamondbacks are not trading Upton.  Book it.   Bookmark this post.  He’s going nowhere this year.  And while his “trade value” might go down, his performance relative to the success of the team in the interim certainly will make it worthwhile.  I think you have forgotten the Diamondbacks are in the business of playing baseball, not brokering players for other teams.  Upton is 24 years old, and their best player by a long shot.  The team won their division last year, and he led the way.  It’s a really safe bet the Diamondbacks think of Upton in terms of what he brings to the team as a player, and are far less concerned with him as a trade chip.  They made that very evident last off-season.  Trade him for what?  A chance to compete in the future?  THAT’S WHERE THEY ARE NOW!! Are you suggesting they forego their recent success and try to compete when San Diego and LA get their act together as well?  This year, they have added Trevor Cahill and Jason Kubel.  Do they really look like a team ready to break up the core for a short term solution that is not as good as what they have?  And some prospects?  Unlike a lot of teams, the Diamondbacks don’t need to rebuild the farm.  It’s actually quite stacked for them, especially when it comes to pitching. Ellsbury might be traded someday.  I’m all for any deal that improves the team, but thinking he suddenly has vaulted to fair trade for the game’s elite players who all are younger and with better track records is laughable.  If I were a GM, I’d be wary of his one season as the outlier.  Any attempt to get him would NOT include someone like Upton. I would certainly not trade a foundation player like Upton for a possible complimentary player like Ellsbury and his one good season at 5 years older. And Zimmerman does make more sense.  Do you not read your own logic?  (I don’t blame you if you don’t; I’m thinking about not reading it anymore myself.)  So Upton’s $14mill balloon payments are to be avoided and a reason to deal him?  THAT MONEY IS EQUAL TO WHAT ZIMMERMAN MAKES RIGHT NOW!!!!!   By your logic, the proximity of those payments is indirectly proportional to what he is worth in a trade, right?  And I quote “ And your comment of ‘still have time to avoid balloon payments’ is quite amusing. The trade value goes down, one year from now. “  Doesn’t that mean Zimmerman’s trade value is also reduced, and even more significantly?  Or does that only apply to players when you decide it so? So the Diamondbacks, who are NOT looking for a CF, need to unload their top guy right now?  Yet the Nationals, who have Zimmerman locked up for less time, and are in a stacked division with Philadelphia and Atlanta not going anywhere in the next two years, and Florida rapidly adding talent, are all set short term?  The Nationals, unlike the Diamondbacks, also already have a replacement in house, and are just seeing their best young players arrive on the scene (Strasburg, Harper, Rendon, Storen, Espinosa), yet they are going to be perfectly willing to hold on to Zimmerman for what reason again?  I’m not saying they want to move him, but he is definitely a more likely candidate than Upton for the very reasons you suggest, plus a lot more.  Because if nothing else, Ellsbury fills a void and saves then $10-12mill in two years and likely gets the same net draft picks in return.  Or is that same level of payroll flexibility only an incentive for the teams you decide want it?  Unlike in the Upton scenario, where Ellsbury costs more short term.  And why you think the Diamondbacks fear paying Upton $14mill at 27 and 28, but are perfectly willing to pay Ellsbury $8-10mill at 28 and 29 is beyond me. I’ll be back tomorrow to own you again…
    Posted by notin[/QUOTE]

    Wow, notin! I'm sure your logic will be lost on the silly clown, but nice retort!

    (I might add that if Ellsbury has a very good 2012, he may have a much bigger payday in 2013, making the salary issue even more absurd.)

     
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    Re: Right handed Power Hitter?

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    [QUOTE]Mac, you get it. Notin, you don't own anything in this State. You are unable to comprehend basic issues that are clear as a bell. The DBacks don't become non-contenders by making the move, nor is it deal for Ellsbury for Upton. It is deal for 2 or 3 more upper tier prospects that may fit the DBacks better than the Red Sox, called blocked prospects. If trades taking place were the basis of the crediblity of the trade offers, then InEpstein and every other small mind would be a baseball genius. Mac gets it. The Dbacks did not have what it took to win another title. They have balloon payments coming. If they can get more players and a better fit and win now, Ellsbury plus Young for 2 years, vs. Upton and Young for 1 years plus 3 balloon payment years, and net 2 or 3 solid prospects that provide immediate and near future help, it most certainly is a deal that works well for both teams.
    Posted by hankwilliamsjr[/QUOTE]

    Actually, you are the one who does not get it.

    You do realize that the first year of Upton’s “balloon payments” is still right in the range – and possibly less – than what they would be paying Ellsbury, right?  And even those balloon payments themselves are hardly outrageous.  Upton could easily escalate himself into the upper stratosphere of MLB hitters in that time while still being paid Bobby Abreu-type money.  He’s one of the best bargains in MLB, balloon payment or not.  The Dodgers just extended Kemp for $20mill per  Kemp  put up a .799OPS when he was the same age Upton was last year, a number that was a full 100 points below Upton.  Replacing Upton’s bat at will cost significantly more than what he is going to cost at the contract’s peak value.

    Merely saying “blocked prospects” is a nice blanket enticement without any commitment.  But really, who?  Pitchers are never really “blocked” since there are always enough spots on the staff, so you would be limited to position players.   Who are these Sox “blocked prospects”?  Oscar Tejada  and Lars Anderson?  Middlebrooks (who isn’t “blocked” since the Sox have no long term commitment to a 3B above him)?  Or some of the A-ball infielders, like Bogaerts and Cecchini, who also are not “blocked” yet?  Are any of these guys any better than what the Dbacks already have in Matt Davidson and Bobby Borchering?  (Did you do any research?)  While I agree you cannot have too many prospects, there are very, very few players like Upton, and the chances of whoever replacing him border on nil. 

    I can’t even imagine the sales pitch to Arizona.  “OK, how about a deal where you get worse short term.  And long term.  But hey, if one of the prospects we deal you is a once-in-a-lifetime player, you could break even!  And if not, all you have to do is spend more money than you already had committed to get right back to where you are today!! We both win!  And by both, I mean just me.”   And arguing that the Dbacks need to shake things up because they “did not have what it takes” to win a title is a huge oversimplification and poor reason to take extreme measures.  They came closer than Boston did, and have already made moves to shore up some weaknesses.  

    If the Sox could get Upton for Ellsbury, Middlebrooks and anybody then do it and don’t look back.  But that deal hurts the Diamondbacks both short term and long term.  Short term, Ellsbury is nowhere near Upton.  And any package of “blocked prospects” won’t make up that difference.  If they wouldn’t deal Upton when they were a last place team, and it makes less sense to deal him as a first place team, especially for a lesser, older player with short term commitment and a couple prospects you feel are expendable, and probably less than what the Dbacks already have. 

    I’d love for the Sox to deal Ellsbury for Upton, but it is not going to happen.  And it does not make sense for the Diamondbacks to even think about it.  Teams near the top – or even teams that think they are – rarely dismantle.  Bad teams bolstered by one good player are more likely to move top talent to rebuild.  Just like the Dodgers felt it was more important to keep Kemp than to think about dealing him, a situation that played out EXACTLY like I told you it would, despite insistence to the contrary that it made sense for them.  Ironically, it actually STILL makes more sense for the Dodgers to deal the recently-extended Kemp for Ellsbury and prospects, because they would be saving A LOT more money than the DBacks would with Upton, and have a lesser farm system as well.  Have you seen Kemp's "balloon payment" after 2012?  Massive!!!  Makes Upton's look like a tip at the IHOP.  Clearly, they need to unload it and fast!

    I'd like to think we can both agree the Dodgers, a worse team than the DBacks by a lot both now and in the immediate future, are not going to move Kemp any time soon.

     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Right handed Power Hitter?

    notin, he's arguing with us like we wouldn't make the deal. He can't even grasp that we are saying AZ wouldn't do it. He'll never give the specifics of "blocked prospects" because he has no clue about our prospects.

    He just praised Mac who went on to say we should get Soriano. Nuff said. Put the clown on ignore. 
     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from notin. Show notin's posts

    Re: Right handed Power Hitter?

    In Response to Re: Right handed Power Hitter?:
    [QUOTE]Mac, you get it. Notin, you don't own anything in this State. You are unable to comprehend basic issues that are clear as a bell. The DBacks don't become non-contenders by making the move, nor is it deal for Ellsbury for Upton. It is deal for 2 or 3 more upper tier prospects that may fit the DBacks better than the Red Sox, called blocked prospects. If trades taking place were the basis of the crediblity of the trade offers, then InEpstein and every other small mind would be a baseball genius. Mac gets it. The Dbacks did not have what it took to win another title. They have balloon payments coming. If they can get more players and a better fit and win now, Ellsbury plus Young for 2 years, vs. Upton and Young for 1 years plus 3 balloon payment years, and net 2 or 3 solid prospects that provide immediate and near future help, it most certainly is a deal that works well for both teams.
    Posted by hankwilliamsjr[/QUOTE]

    Soifty, Softy, Softy...

    Not to pick on Mac, but you do realize the guy you said "gets it" suggests Alfonso Soriano one post later.  There is one huge problem here.

    The reason Soriano is NOT a good option for the Sox is that his current contract has an AAV of about $17mill, which pole vaults the Sox over the very luxury tax threshhold they are trying to avoid, and this situation does not alleviate itself for 3 more years.  The amount of money the Cubs include is irrelevant towards calculating the AAV of the contract.

    And then there is the whole "horrible player" thing about Soriano, which I guess makes for two reasons...
     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from hankwilliamsjr. Show hankwilliamsjr's posts

    Re: Right handed Power Hitter?

    You do realize that the first year of Upton’s “balloon payments” is still right in the range – and possibly less – than what they would be paying Ellsbury, right? 
    You are not possibly less than absurd. Ellsbury is not getting the balloon payment "in the range". In your list, you are like a fantasy baseball mind who needs a babysitter. I know the farm for the Red Sox, but I do not know the Dbacks farm or what players they might see as a better fit and who are factually blocked prospects for Red Sox.

    You are the same idiot who said that Agon would not be traded last winter because it didn't make sense.

    In this case, you do realize that the prior GM was quite pitiful from a baseball IQ, so whether Cherry makes a blockbuster trade offer or not is most certainly not the measure of whether it has strong merit for both teams in involved. 

    You are also the same idiot who talked about taking on some White Sox dumpster reliever with a name no one will ever remember just a few years later, because that reliever is so bad.

    And Moonslob, you are the same poster who advocated paying millions to retain the services of a 45 year old pitcher with a beer gut and a 5 plus ERA and a 40 year old catcher who hasn't been able to finish a season off the shelf in the last 2 seasons, despite part time workload. And how pitiful is it for you to go silent in the face of likely kicked to the curb status for Varitek and Wastefield. You should be coming out of your cowardly bunker and standing up for these two great million dollars value players.

    Anyone advocating millions for Varitek and Wastefield has zero crediblity!
     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from notin. Show notin's posts

    Re: Right handed Power Hitter?

    In Response to Re: Right handed Power Hitter?:
    [QUOTE]You do realize that the first year of Upton’s “balloon payments” is still right in the range – and possibly less – than what they would be paying Ellsbury, right?   You are not possibly less than absurd. Ellsbury is not getting the balloon payment "in the range". In your list, you are like a fantasy baseball mind who needs a babysitter. I know the farm for the Red Sox, but I do not know the Dbacks farm or what players they might see as a better fit and who are factually blocked prospects for Red Sox. You are the same idiot who said that Agon would not be traded last winter because it didn't make sense. In this case, you do realize that the prior GM was quite pitiful from a baseball IQ, so whether Cherry makes a blockbuster trade offer or not is most certainly not the measure of whether it has strong merit for both teams in involved.  You are also the same idiot who talked about taking on some White Sox dumpster reliever with a name no one will ever remember just a few years later, because that reliever is so bad. And Moonslob, you are the same poster who advocated paying millions to retain the services of a 45 year old pitcher with a beer gut and a 5 plus ERA and a 40 year old catcher who hasn't been able to finish a season off the shelf in the last 2 seasons, despite part time workload. And how pitiful is it for you to go silent in the face of likely kicked to the curb status for Varitek and Wastefield. You should be coming out of your cowardly bunker and standing up for these two great million dollars value players. Anyone advocating millions for Varitek and Wastefield has zero crediblity!
    Posted by hankwilliamsjr[/QUOTE]

    A few posts back, you said - and this is a drirect quote.

    "Mac gets it. The Dbacks did not have what it took to win another title. They have balloon payments coming. If they can get more players and a better fit and win now, Ellsbury plus Young for 2 years, vs. Upton and Young for 1 years plus 3 balloon payment years, and net 2 or 3 solid prospects that provide immediate and near future help, it most certainly is a deal that works well for both teams. "

    Upton's 2013 salary is $9.75mill.  Are you saying Elslbury won't be making clsoe to that by 2013?  I assumed the "balloon payments" referred to the $14mill saaries in 2014 and 2105, but right abovce I C&P'd a post directly from you citing you belive they start in 2012 and there are 3 of them.  Ellsbury will get about $8mill this year and close to $10mill in 2013, barring any deal between him and Boston in the meantime (Very doubtfull.).

    I did say AGon would not be trade aslt winter. (The Sox also did not trade him for Ellsbury like a certain someone insisted.)  I was wrong.  It happens.  I als said Kemp would be extended.  I am right sometimes, too.  I never claimed to be a psychin or know the inner workings of any MLB team, but I certainly can tell some incredibly obvious facts about what players are not getting moved.  And by opening day, or in your terms - 3 or 4 bannings and new names - Upton will be in AZ.  Book it.

    And again I ask - who are these "blocked prospects"?   You said you know the farm.  I'm just asking for names.

    Are you seriously digging up a "White Sox reliever" who didn't work out as some sort of trash talk?  Out the thousands of players I've mentioned?  Most of whom were not stars?  Do you pay attention to ANYTHING?!?!  I almost always look for the non-star missing pieces as opposed to simply bouncing my lust from one team's all star to the next, insisting every idiotic deal I propose "makes sense for both sides."  Geez, I would think you would have gone after my repeated obsessions with Chad Gaudin, Ricky Nolasco and Ryan Hanigan.  Particularly Gaudin.  In case you are wondering I am not  afraid nor ashamed of anything I have said.  Dig them up all you want.

    Oh, and I've beren saying all offseason that I prefer Wakefield and Tek not come back.  I just haven't been nearly as obsessive about it as you.  Although kudos on going 3 full posts on this thread without mentioning either.  New personal record?

    However I did in one post wish WAkefield came back, but I expressly said it was because I knew it would irritate a lot of foolish fans.  Hi there :)
     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Right handed Power Hitter?

    I assume mr hanky still hasn't told us about the "2 or 3 solid" blocked prospects that will "provide immediate and near future help..." 

    Lars?
    Coyle?
    Tejada?

    yup, uh huh!
     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from hankwilliamsjr. Show hankwilliamsjr's posts

    Re: Right handed Power Hitter?

    Upton's 2013 salary is $9.75mill.  Are you saying Elslbury won't be making clsoe to that by 2013?  I assumed the "balloon payments" referred to the $14mill saaries in 2014 and 2105

    I'm saying the DBacks will have the flexibility to not pay the balloon payments in 2014 and 2015, or, if they like, can retain Ellsbury for, using your language style, "something close" to those balloon payments.

    I always give crediblity to those who are censored. So, that leaves you out, Notin. You are nothing but a drone.
     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from notin. Show notin's posts

    Re: Right handed Power Hitter?

    And what you don't seem to understand is that at $14mill, Upton is extermely likely to be underpaid.  He has "$20+mill salary" written all over him.  So the choice you would be offering the Dbacks is the option to get worse and more expensive for 2 years and then to fall back into medicority or below, or pay very, very heavily to acquire talent similar to what they gave away.  Financial flexibility won't free up the $20+mill they will need to replace Upton.   Status quo is much, muich better in this case.

    And all of that is assuming Ellsbury can maintain 2011, which I would think is unlikely and I bet most GMs do too. 

    Still no names on the "blocked prosepcts" who should be equalizing this deal, yet?  I for one am shocked - SHOCKED, I say - that you have avoided that part of my question.

    So if you consider me one of the drones who likes to remind you that other teams do not exist help the Sox and listen to your nonsensical drivel you call "logic," then call me a drone, baby.  In fact, I want to be called "Median Average Drone".  (I wonder if that name is taken?)

    Though I should aspire for more....
     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Right handed Power Hitter?

    In Response to Re: Right handed Power Hitter?:
    [QUOTE]And what you don't seem to understand is that at $14mill, Upton is extermely likely to be underpaid.  He has "$20+mill salary" written all over him.  So the choice you would be offering the Dbacks is the option to get worse and more expensive for 2 years and then to fall back into medicority or below, or pay very, very heavily to acquire talent similar to what they gave away.  Financial flexibility won't free up the $20+mill they will need to replace Upton.   Status quo is much, muich better in this case. And all of that is assuming Ellsbury can maintain 2011, which I would think is unlikely and I bet most GMs do too.  Still no names on the "blocked prosepcts" who should be equalizing this deal, yet?  I for one am shocked - SHOCKED, I say - that you have avoided that part of my question. So if you consider me one of the drones who likes to remind you that other teams do not exist help the Sox and listen to your nonsensical drivel you call "logic," then call me a drone, baby.  In fact, I want to be called "Median Average Drone".  (I wonder if that name is taken?) Though I should aspire for more....
    Posted by notin[/QUOTE]

    Upton's AVV is just 8.5M. If we got him this winter his avg salary would be  about $11.3M/yr. That's a bargain for 4 years of prime Upton. The kid already has an .849 OPS up to age 23!

    We may end up paying Jacoby close to $11.3M/yr for 2 years.

    As for the "blocked" and "solid" 2-3 prospects that will "help" AZ immediately or soon, there aren't any. That's why we'll never see the names.

    Perhaps mr. hanky (aka silly clown) may have a different idea of what Sox positions are "blocked", but to me the only 2 slots that are "blocked" are 1B & 2B. Going by Soxprospects, here are our top prospects at those 2 slots:

    #11 Sean Coyle 2B 19 years old who hit .247 in single A. Avg range fielder.

    #18 Oscar Tejada 2B 22 years old who hit .249 in AA. Below avg fielder.

    #23 Lars Anderson 1B  24 years old who hit .264 with just 24 HRs the last 2 years in AAA (900 PAs) with an under .800 OPS.

    #34 Reynaldo Rodriguez 1B 25 years old.

    AZ might like Coyle or Tejada, but I doubt they'd count on either to play soon for them. If they like Lars, it would surprise me.
     

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