Rotation thoughts

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from natepioneer1. Show natepioneer1's posts

    Rotation thoughts

    Let’s start with the premise that the first three slots are set with Lester, Beckett and Buchholz.  Of course there will be missed starts and maybe even some DL, but those can be covered by spot starts from people on the team or even short term callups from AAA.

     

    The 4th and 5th slots are basically the same so…

     

    One of them is Bard’s to lose.  The team seems committed to making it work and he wants to be successful.  The potential upside is enormous.  If it works, you have a young power arm that is under control for a number of years.  For him not to start the season as a starter, I think he would have to fall completely apart.  My definition of that is getting hammered each and every time out once he gets beyond the one or two inning appearances.  Any of the short appearances would be the same if he were in line to start or relieve.  My guess is that in the interests of having him be effective in September and hopefully longer, they will manage his innings.  Once he gets to around 100 or so innings, my guess is they will start to back him off and maybe even put him in the bullpen.  That would give him 15-18 starts.  That would also get him through June as a starter.  Guess who should be ready?  Matsuzaka.  If they do this right, he will have something left for crunch time and maybe he adds another 15-25 innings out of the bullpen.  He will also have spent a season stretching out, so that by 2013, he ready to assume a bigger load.  The Rangers backed off Ogando at the end last year, if I recall.

     

    The other slot is where the real battle begins and I think there are a lot of candidates for that.  I don’t think there will be one starter in the final spot, but rather a combination of many.  Here they are and why.

     

    Aceves-They are giving him the opportunity for a spot, but I think that at some point, they will look at him and say he helps the team the most out of the bullpen, but as that wild card, who can start on a moments notice.  He can pitch the sixth and seventh as a multi inning guy; he can pitch the eighth as a set up; he can be used as a closer if need be;  But he is the one best suited to start for two or three times around, if someone goes down.  He is the insurance for the top three guys.  He is going to make the team, they need to use him wisely.

     

    Doubront-It’s now or never for him.  He has no options and after last year, they aren’t going to be real patient.  It would be great if he makes it as a starter, giving them two lefties in the rotation.  My guess is that as long as he is reasonably effective in ST, he makes the team, at least out of the bullpen.  If he is on the team, he could spot start.  If he gets hammered in ST, he is probably gone.  If he is in the bullpen, long relief would be a good spot, like come in the 4th when a starter blows out.  Even sixth or seventh.  If he is good, he might even make Morales expendable at some point.

     

    Miller-Very similar situation to Doubront, in that he has no options.  He makes the team or they say good bye.  Clearly they see something in him and hope that the guy who was drafted 8th will reach some sort of potential.  Unless he is absolutely lights out in ST, I don’t think he would start the season in the rotation.  He would be one that could also go long relief.  They are going to push this one.  My guess is that if they can find a way to get him back to AAA, they would do it, but if he is put on waivers, someone will claim him.

     

    Padilla-Intriguing.  Of the “retreads” as some have referred to them, he has the best track record and could be a terrific end of rotation guy.  It depends on which Vicente Padilla, we have.  If it’s the one from 06, 08, 09, I’ll take that in this slot.  He signed a minor league contract, so they could send him down.  I don’t think that would go over well with him, nor would the bullpen.  I think he makes it as a starter or he is gone.

     

    Silva-Similar, but a I think, he would be more inclined to go to Pawtucket for awhile.  Thus I think, his chances of making the rotation from the get go a re slim.  Unless he has a terrific spring.  Could be an emergency call up at any time.

     

    Cook-Maybe a big time signing if he is healthy.  If he can be 07-9 version, they may have a winner here.  He has a AAA contract, they are going slow with him, so I don’t think they have any intentions of having him come out of ST as a starter.  This a case of building him up for May or June.  Wonder what his opt out situation is.  May or later, potential emergency call up

     

    Ohlendorf-Almost the same as Cook.  Go slow and see what happens.  He has some potential and he is not 30 yet.  Opt out is another factor.

     

    Tazawa-Building him up and with options, no need to rush him back.  Will likely see him at some points during the season, possibly to spot start

     

    Bowden-He is likely to make the team out of the bullpen and because he is out of options, he is a now or never type of guy.  Doubt they want to move him back to being a starter, but I guess he could be an option.

     

    Wilson-Doubt he has much chance to make the team out of ST.  He is only 25, so what’s the rush.  Might come up to make a start if they really ran into trouble.

     

     

    I think they will bring 12 pitchers north an barring any injuries in ST, I see—Beckett, Buchholz, Lester, Bard, Bailey Melancon, Aceves as absolute locks.  Morales and Albers are very likely, but could be knocked out if someone really surprises.  There are three more slots to be filled and four likely possibilities right now.  I think Doubront and Bowden will make it.  Doubront as a starter or reliever, Bowden for the bullpen.  Whether Doubront starts depends upon what Padilla does.  If Padilla does well, he gets the last rotation spot and Doubront is in the bullpen.  If Padilla craps out and Doubront is at least decent, then Doubront gets it.  Miller can force his way on, but I see it in the bullpen to begin the season, if at all.  For him to make the cut, then it would be at the expense of one from Padilla, Doubront, Morales, Bowden.  Albers could even be expendable, though I doubt it.  FWIW they have a lot of guys for potential bullpen callups, like Carpenter, Mortenson, Tazawa, Carlson, some others they have signed to AAA contracts and eventually Hill.

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from natepioneer1. Show natepioneer1's posts

    Re: Rotation thoughts

    I forgot about Maine.
     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from law2009a. Show law2009a's posts

    Re: Rotation thoughts

    m
     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from lowelll. Show lowelll's posts

    Re: Rotation thoughts

    FORT MYERS, Fla. -- Boston Red Sox left-hander Andrew Miller is fine, a baseball source said Wednesday, adding that Miller said that if this was the regular season he would have pitched.

    Miller was scratched from his scheduled appearance Thursday in Jupiter after reporting some elbow stiffness, manager Bobby Valentine told reporters in Dunedi on Wednesday. Valentine described it as a "little issue," according to Michael Silverman of The Boston Globe.

    "It's strictly precautionary," the source said, adding that Miller isn't prone to injury and has had no history of arm problems. The only time he's missed due to injuries involved his ankle and his knee.
     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Rotation thoughts

    You forgot Mortenson.
     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Rotation thoughts

    I'd prefer Bard and Aceves in the pen, but do not think we can muster 2 quality starters from the long list of names.

    I do not think both Bard and Aceves should be in the rotation at the same time, but both might get long looks over the course of the season.

    Trying to predict who will win the 5th slot is perhaps the hardest position to call right now.

    Assuming Bard wins the 4 slot, my call on who is the best 5th, starter, would be Aceves, but like I said, both should not be pulled from a pen that has already lost Paps and Bard. Here's my early season call (in order of liklihood to win the 5th slot):

    1) Doubront  (No options)
    2) Aceves
    3) Cook
    4) Tazawa
    5) Mortenson
    6) Silva
    7) Padilla
    8) Wilson
    9) Miller
    10) Olendorf 

    (Bowden is out of options and will be in the pen, or traded, or cut.) 
     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from natepioneer1. Show natepioneer1's posts

    Re: Rotation thoughts

    Not too high on Padilla, eh?

    Tazawa has options and I rhink their inention is for Mortenson in the bullpen.  They plan to go real slow with Cook.  I agree, he may be a good one.  Doubront could easily start in the bullpen.  I think he'll make the team, as I do Bowden. 

    I agree with Aceves in the BP.  I think Bard can do it though as a starter, at least for half the year.  Then move him back to the BP, not because he can't do it, but so they can presrve him for September, October.  And they will need to make room for Daisuke.



    In Response to Re: Rotation thoughts:
    [QUOTE]I'd prefer Bard and Aceves in the pen, but do not think we can muster 2 quality starters from the long list of names. I do not think both Bard and Aceves should be in the rotation at the same time, but both might get long looks over the course of the season. Trying to predict who will win the 5th slot is perhaps the hardest position to call right now. Assuming Bard wins the 4 slot, my call on who is the best 5th, starter, would be Aceves, but like I said, both should not be pulled from a pen that has already lost Paps and Bard. Here's my early season call (in order of liklihood to win the 5th slot): 1) Doubront  (No options) 2) Aceves 3) Cook 4) Tazawa 5) Mortenson 6) Silva 7) Padilla 8) Wilson 9) Miller 10) Olendorf  (Bowden is out of options and will be in the pen, or traded, or cut.) 
    Posted by moonslav59[/QUOTE]
     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from RSF4Life234. Show RSF4Life234's posts

    Re: Rotation thoughts

    Im hoping miller gets over his sorearm and gets back to it. I liked some of the things i saw from him last year and think that if he can get his control problems solved that he could be a real darkhorse on the team.
     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from Drewski5. Show Drewski5's posts

    Re: Rotation thoughts

    I apologize if this comes across negative, but here is my take:

    I agree that the fact that Dubront, Miller, and Bowden have no options will help them make the team; however, I disagree that it gives them the inside edge on teh #5 starter.

    Moon, I must respectfully disagree on Bard AND Aceves in the pen.  You can patchwork together a bullpen, or sign a solid bullpen pitcher for 3 million.  Its much harder to find a starter and these guys are legitimate.  I think that Bard is our fourth starter and Aceves is our swing man (6th starter and 7th inning guy).

    Im not sold on Dubront.  First of all, lefties tend to under-perform at Fenway.  It's easy for a right-hander to spot their pitches and pull them for an easy single/double off the monster.  With Dubront's delivery, I think that he will always be subject to this.  Also I rate his stuff as average to above average.  I think he winds up in the pen.

    Miller's stuff is better, I think he has a good a shot as anyone to taking the fifth spot by the horns.

    I predict that Bowden is cut, but clears waivers and winds up in AAA.

    To start the season:

    Beckett, Lester, Buchholz, Bard, Miller (in part because he has no options), Aceves, Dubront (in part because he has no options)

    Out of the pen:
    Bailey
    Melancon
    Aceves
    Dubront
    Albers
    Morales
    Padilla

    Before Dice-K comes back, if a starter goes down or is ineffective, I think it will be Cook or Aceves that moves into the rotation.  Then Dice-K when he gets back, pushing Cook to the bullpen (Morales is cut to make room). 

    Just my rough predictions.
     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from natepioneer1. Show natepioneer1's posts

    Re: Rotation thoughts

    I agree with a lot of this.  Thus why I think Padilla might have the inside track, if he is merely decent, like Garcia and Colon were last year. 

    I say Doubront amkes the team and is the long relief guy to begin, early if someone gets hammered, 5th 6th, 7th or as situational lefty.  he could start in an emergency if he is strecthed out.  Miller and Bowden I think are fighting for a spot and I really think they want Miller to succeed.  his upside could be huge.  Less so for Bowden and maybe you are right, they could try to sneak him through waivers.  There is also the possibility, if both do well and say Albers or Morales don't, that they could both stick. 

    Phantom injury, anyone???

    Cook is probably a month away and since he can be sent down, they may take advantage of that.  Even longer for Ohlendorf.  Then there is Daisuke by July, maybe sooner.  

    Padilla could be a huge wild card.  Doesn't have to be a 15 win guy. solid will do
    In Response to Re: Rotation thoughts:
    [QUOTE]I apologize if this comes across negative, but here is my take: I agree that the fact that Dubront, Miller, and Bowden have no options will help them make the team; however, I disagree that it gives them the inside edge on teh #5 starter. Moon, I must respectfully disagree on Bard AND Aceves in the pen.  You can patchwork together a bullpen, or sign a solid bullpen pitcher for 3 million.  Its much harder to find a starter and these guys are legitimate.  I think that Bard is our fourth starter and Aceves is our swing man (6th starter and 7th inning guy). Im not sold on Dubront.  First of all, lefties tend to under-perform at Fenway.  It's easy for a right-hander to spot their pitches and pull them for an easy single/double off the monster.  With Dubront's delivery, I think that he will always be subject to this.  Also I rate his stuff as average to above average.  I think he winds up in the pen. Miller's stuff is better, I think he has a good a shot as anyone to taking the fifth spot by the horns. I predict that Bowden is cut, but clears waivers and winds up in AAA. To start the season: Beckett, Lester, Buchholz, Bard, Miller (in part because he has no options), Aceves, Dubront (in part because he has no options) Out of the pen: Bailey Melancon Aceves Dubront Albers Morales Padilla Before Dice-K comes back, if a starter goes down or is ineffective, I think it will be Cook or Aceves that moves into the rotation.  Then Dice-K when he gets back, pushing Cook to the bullpen (Morales is cut to make room).  Just my rough predictions.
    Posted by Drewski5[/QUOTE]
     
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