Saltalamacchia--10th best catcher in MLB

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    Re: Saltalamacchia--10th best catcher in MLB

    Another point I think which has yet to sink in to maybe all of us. We probably should be sellers at this point and Salty is only controllable for 1.5 years. All the arguments made about trading Ellsbury now could certainly be made regarding trading Salty now. We probably lose Salty anyway, unless we want to overpay to keep him. We have to play around .635 ball for the remainder of the year to have a realistic chance and the schedule is full of games against top contenders. It's not at all likely that we make the playoffs this year. If we did the math, it would be real ugly. We just don't want to admit it:


    ( updated as of today ).


     
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    Re: Saltalamacchia--10th best catcher in MLB

    Even if we win the next 2 games we probably should be sellers. I doubt that we will be big sellers though. We are the Redsox.

    I think we should be judicious sellers. We certainly have a shot next year. Guys like Cody Ross should be gone. As great as he has been his contract is done in a couple months. He is worth something. What a great $3 mil sign ( kudos for Moon for pushing that one all winter ). Let's make the most of that value. 

    Salty is certainly worth something, as is Shoppach. One of them should be gone. Shoppach is another 1 year deal. He almost definitely should be gone.

    Salty has hit a lot of his HR to left field. He is probably worth more to us than he is to just about any club. Maybe he would also be great in Houston. His HR pop does seem to be trending up. He is the right age for a catcher coming into his prime. He turned out to be worth a heck of a lot more than what we gave up for him. Still, I would trade him in a heartbeat for the right deal. He is of value and we do have a guy in the minors who can probably step in well.  

    We have some relievers who should be gone. These deals should allow us to still compete but we should judiciously improve our position for next year while we can.

     
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    Re: Saltalamacchia--10th best catcher in MLB

    If professional evaluators inside baseball conclude that Salty is as bad on defense as summoned stats are assumed to demonstrate, he probably will not long have a job as a FT catcher in the big leagues. Drewski reports a "violent debate" about the importance of defense at catcher. I cannot speak to the details of that debate. But at this point anyway, I doubt that GM's have bought into the devaluation. Nor have field managers. Maybe someday. Who knows? But not at the moment. 
    So if the Sox conclude that Salty is amongst the worst, if not the worst, on defense, he will eventually lose his job to someone much better, thunder in the bat notwithstanding. On that point, he might even be at risk if his BA drops into the .220's or below and he continues to K at his current rate, should Boston decide that another person is, on balance, better for the job. That person would need to be good to very good on defense and hit well, including with pop. 
    Lavarnway could be that person. None of us knows how the Sox now evaluate his defense or his potential on defense. He figures to hit in the big leagues, but that too remains to be fully tested. For the moment, his value falls under "remains to be seen," as it usually does for almost all promising prospects. If he turns out to be the best man for the job in Boston, all Sox fans should be more than satisfied. We all want the Sox to play whom they consider the best available at his position. 
    A trade involving either Salty or Lavarnway might be in the works before the deadline, though unlikely. Shoppach might be traded and Lavarnway called up, but that too seems unlikely. ( Note: the unlikely happens a lot. ) Most likely, IMO, is that Lavarnway will join the club in September and get ( ? ) playing time. 
    From then onwards, all bets are off. Performance or expected performance decides. A trade of Salty or Lavarnway in the offseason is not out of the question. That, in turn, hinges upon a resolution with Ortiz. Some people here think that the Sox will or should have Salty and Lavarnway go head-to-head for the job in ST or in divided duty during 2013. That possibility cannot be ruled out. ( Can anything at this point with this club? ) For reasons I have stated elsewhere, I doubt that the team will take that course. But I could be very wrong.
    On all of these questions, we simply have to wait and see.
     
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    Re: Saltalamacchia--10th best catcher in MLB

    I think there is at least a 35% chance Shoppach gets traded. Others who might get traded include:

    Albers
    Cook
    Padilla
    Atchinsen
    Sweeney
    Ross
    Salty

    Most of the above are not under contract beyond 2012 except for Salty who is 2013. To me, we should trade every one of the above players  (including either Shoppach OR Salty ). With a 13-14% chance of making the playoffs at all, why not move these guys? We should be judicious sellers. Is it going to make that much difference beyond Ross ( who is of the most value on that list )?  it drops our chances of making the playoffs maybe down to 8% if we lost every one of them. And if we trade for A level prspects ( low  minors guys ) we might get a gem or 2 out of these deals.

    We could bring up Linares to replace Ross. We still have Kalish who has done surprisingly well in AAA after all those injuries. We have guys like Mortensen available as reliever substitutes. Lavarnway for Shoppach. Guys like Morales or Tazawa for Cook. We would be ok. Might as well use this to to further develop youngsters and reload our farm with potentially valuable future talent. Try to work out the kinks with Lester and Beckett.
     
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    Re: Saltalamacchia--10th best catcher in MLB

    In Response to Re: Saltalamacchia--10th best catcher in MLB:
    [QUOTE]I think there is at least a 35% chance Shoppach gets traded. Others who might get traded include: Albers Cook Padilla Atchinsen Sweeney Ross Salty Most of the above are not under contract beyond 2012 except for Salty who is 2013. To me, we should trade every one of the above players  (including either Shoppach OR Salty ). With a 13-14% chance of making the playoffs at all, why not move these guys? We should be judicious sellers. Is it going to make that much difference beyond Ross ( who is of the most value on that list )?  it drops our chances of making the playoffs maybe down to 8% if we lost every one of them. And if we trade for A level prspects ( low  minors guys ) we might get a gem or 2 out of these deals. We could bring up Linares to replace Ross. We still have Kalish who has done surprisingly well in AAA after all those injuries. We have guys like Mortensen available as reliever substitutes. Lavarnway for Shoppach. Guys like Morales or Tazawa for Cook. We would be ok. Might as well use this to to further develop youngsters and reload our farm with potentially valuable future talent. Try to work out the kinks with Lester and Beckett.
    Posted by Boomerangsdotcom[/QUOTE]
    How did you arrive at these percentages?

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Saltalamacchia--10th best catcher in MLB

    Another point I think which has yet to sink in to maybe all of us. We probably should be sellers at this point and Salty is only controllable for 1.5 years. All the arguments made about trading Ellsbury now could certainly be made regarding trading Salty now. We probably lose Salty anyway, unless we want to overpay to keep him. We have to play around .635 ball for the remainder of the year to have a realistic chance and the schedule is full of games against top contenders. It's not at all likely that we make the playoffs this year. If we did the math, it would be real ugly. We just don't want to admit it:

    One difference: I give Ellsbury about a 1% chance of returning here even if we offer him equal to the top bidder. The same is not true for Salty.

    That being said, I have said all along that if Papi returns (esp for 2 yrs), we should probably trade Salty or Lava this winter, but perhaps trading one now maskes just as much sense if we can get more for the extra 3rd of a year of team control.

    I think several teams would overpay for a catcher with 20 HRs and 2 playoff seasons of team control.
     
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    Re: Saltalamacchia--10th best catcher in MLB

    Even if we win the next 2 games we probably should be sellers. I doubt that we will be big sellers though. We are the Redsox.

    I think we should be judicious sellers. We certainly have a shot next year. Guys like Cody Ross should be gone. As great as he has been his contract is done in a couple months. He is worth something. What a great $3 mil sign ( kudos for Moon for pushing that one all winter ). Let's make the most of that value. 

    I´d actually first try to extend Ross, but if he declines then sit him down and tell him we´d really like to re-sign him this winter, but are looking to trade him now, effectively giving up on this year. However, to me Ross returning here next year makes the most sense if one of two things happen:
    1) We let Papi walk or he declines arb and walks by his own choice.
    2) We trade CC, so Ross can and his defense can be "hidden" in LF and not exploited by the opps in RF.

    Salty is certainly worth something, as is Shoppach. One of them should be gone. Shoppach is another 1 year deal. He almost definitely should be gone.

    If we don't trade Salty or Lava now, I could see trading Shoppach, but if brining up Lava one month early losses a year of control on the back end, is it worth it to bring him up during a "lost year"? We could trade Shoppach and bring up someone else for August.

    Salty has hit a lot of his HR to left field. He is probably worth more to us than he is to just about any club. Maybe he would also be great in Houston. His HR pop does seem to be trending up. He is the right age for a catcher coming into his prime. He turned out to be worth a heck of a lot more than what we gave up for him. Still, I would trade him in a heartbeat for the right deal. He is of value and we do have a guy in the minors who can probably step in well.  

    Lowest team WAR at the catcher position:
    30) TB (I'd love to package Lava or Salty for Shields)
    29) Oak (I´d give Salty or Lava for McCarthy, but only if we extend him.)
    28) Mia (Lot's of players to chose from here-esp salry dumps we dont want.)
    27) Cubs (Garza?)
    26) Mets (Some young promising pitchers here)
    25) Colo (No starting pitchers under 5.00. C. Gonzalez is a lefty/D. Fowler switchy)
    22) Hou (???)
    20) Wash
    19) Pitt
    18) LAA
    17) Sea
    16) KC
    9) CWS (Pierzynski is a FA after this year)

    We have some relievers who should be gone. These deals should allow us to still compete but we should judiciously improve our position for next year while we can.

    I have said the same several times. We can be cautios sellers and still leave the window open for this year, but set ourselves up nicely for next year by:
    1) Getting under the luxury limit this year, so we can go over next year or 2014.
    2) Stockpile prospects for a possible large winter deal-avoid big FA pitcher signings.

    2012 window left open-sell:
    Dice-K
    Shopp
    Cook (I´d look to extend first)
    Padilla (I´d look to extend first)
    Podsednick 
    Sweeney (FA after 2013)
    Punto (FA after 2013)
    R Hill (after 2013)
    Albers (after 2014)
    Atchison (FA after 2016, but too probably old to make it that long)
    Salty (FA after 2013)

    Close window for 2012:
    Ross
    Ortiz
    Ellsbury (FA after 2013)
    Lester (Club option for 2014)

    Try hard to dump salary ASAP:
    Crawford
    Beckett? (I doubt we get return worth what he is worth to us, so this is unlikely.)
     
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    Re: Saltalamacchia--10th best catcher in MLB

    In Response to Re: Saltalamacchia--10th best catcher in MLB:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: Saltalamacchia--10th best catcher in MLB : How did you arrive at these percentages?
    Posted by expitch[/QUOTE]

    Shoppach is pure speculation on my part plus reading some trade rumor reports. The Redsox chances of winning are here and other locations. The same economics tools business's use to project sales and stock prices can be implemented to predict elections and teams getting into the playoffs:

     
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    Re: Saltalamacchia--10th best catcher in MLB

    I think Ellsbury might stay if he gets a top bid but he is probably more optimized in another park. He still can't hit the wall more than 1-2 times a year. Great player who would be even greater in NY or Philadephia.
     
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    Re: Saltalamacchia--10th best catcher in MLB

    In Response to Re: Saltalamacchia--10th best catcher in MLB:
    [QUOTE]Even if we win the next 2 games we probably should be sellers. I doubt that we will be big sellers though. We are the Redsox. I think we should be judicious sellers. We certainly have a shot next year. Guys like Cody Ross should be gone. As great as he has been his contract is done in a couple months. He is worth something. What a great $3 mil sign ( kudos for Moon for pushing that one all winter ). Let's make the most of that value.  I´d actually first try to extend Ross, but if he declines then sit him down and tell him we´d really like to re-sign him this winter, but are looking to trade him now, effectively giving up on this year. However, to me Ross returning here next year makes the most sense if one of two things happen: 1) We let Papi walk or he declines arb and walks by his own choice. 2) We trade CC, so Ross can and his defense can be "hidden" in LF and not exploited by the opps in RF. Salty is certainly worth something, as is Shoppach. One of them should be gone. Shoppach is another 1 year deal. He almost definitely should be gone. If we don't trade Salty or Lava now, I could see trading Shoppach, but if brining up Lava one month early losses a year of control on the back end, is it worth it to bring him up during a "lost year"? We could trade Shoppach and bring up someone else for August. Salty has hit a lot of his HR to left field. He is probably worth more to us than he is to just about any club. Maybe he would also be great in Houston. His HR pop does seem to be trending up. He is the right age for a catcher coming into his prime. He turned out to be worth a heck of a lot more than what we gave up for him. Still, I would trade him in a heartbeat for the right deal. He is of value and we do have a guy in the minors who can probably step in well.   Lowest team WAR at the catcher position: 30) TB (I'd love to package Lava or Salty for Shields) 29) Oak (I´d give Salty or Lava for McCarthy, but only if we extend him.) 28) Mia (Lot's of players to chose from here-esp salry dumps we dont want.) 27) Cubs (Garza?) 26) Mets (Some young promising pitchers here) 25) Colo (No starting pitchers under 5.00. C. Gonzalez is a lefty/D. Fowler switchy) 22) Hou (???) 20) Wash 19) Pitt 18) LAA 17) Sea 16) KC 9) CWS (Pierzynski is a FA after this year) We have some relievers who should be gone. These deals should allow us to still compete but we should judiciously improve our position for next year while we can. I have said the same several times. We can be cautios sellers and still leave the window open for this year, but set ourselves up nicely for next year by: 1) Getting under the luxury limit this year, so we can go over next year or 2014. 2) Stockpile prospects for a possible large winter deal-avoid big FA pitcher signings. 2012 window left open-sell: Dice-K Shopp Cook (I´d look to extend first) Padilla (I´d look to extend first) Podsednick  Sweeney (FA after 2013) Punto (FA after 2013) R Hill (after 2013) Albers (after 2014) Atchison (FA after 2016, but too probably old to make it that long) Salty (FA after 2013) Close window for 2012: Ross Ortiz Ellsbury (FA after 2013) Lester (Club option for 2014) Try hard to dump salary ASAP: Crawford Beckett? (I doubt we get return worth what he is worth to us, so this is unlikely.)
    Posted by moonslav59[/QUOTE]
    I'm not completely against them extending Ross but he would cost a lot more if they did now ( as compared to last winter ). Maybe $7 - $9 mil even now? 
     
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    Re: Saltalamacchia--10th best catcher in MLB

    In Response to Re: Saltalamacchia--10th best catcher in MLB:
    [QUOTE]Another point I think which has yet to sink in to maybe all of us. We probably should be sellers at this point and Salty is only controllable for 1.5 years. All the arguments made about trading Ellsbury now could certainly be made regarding trading Salty now. We probably lose Salty anyway, unless we want to overpay to keep him. We have to play around .635 ball for the remainder of the year to have a realistic chance and the schedule is full of games against top contenders. It's not at all likely that we make the playoffs this year. If we did the math, it would be real ugly. We just don't want to admit it: One difference: I give Ellsbury about a 1% chance of returning here even if we offer him equal to the top bidder. The same is not true for Salty. That being said, I have said all along that if Papi returns (esp for 2 yrs), we should probably trade Salty or Lava this winter, but perhaps trading one now maskes just as much sense if we can get more for the extra 3rd of a year of team control. I think several teams would overpay for a catcher with 20 HRs and 2 playoff seasons of team control.
    Posted by moonslav59[/QUOTE]

    Maybe even us!
     
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    Re: Saltalamacchia--10th best catcher in MLB

    Moon, I like Cook also, but we better have some better infield D to optimize him. 

    Texas?
     
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    Re: Saltalamacchia--10th best catcher in MLB

    In Response to Re: Saltalamacchia--10th best catcher in MLB:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: Saltalamacchia--10th best catcher in MLB : Shoppach is pure speculation on my part plus reading some trade rumor reports. The Redsox chances of winning are here and other locations. The same economics tools business's use to project sales and stock prices can be implemented to predict elections and teams getting into the playoffs: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/odds/
    Posted by Boomerangsdotcom[/QUOTE]
    Thanks. I checked it out.

     
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    Re: Saltalamacchia--10th best catcher in MLB

    In Response to Re: Saltalamacchia--10th best catcher in MLB:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: Saltalamacchia--10th best catcher in MLB : I'm not completely against them extending Ross but he would cost a lot more if they did now ( as compared to last winter ). Maybe $7 - $9 mil even now? 
    Posted by Boomerangsdotcom[/QUOTE]

    He´s not young anymore, but I'd offer him $13M/2 with $1M incentive for .850+ OPS and $1M for 500+ PAs. 3rd year $6M club option with $2M buyout, meaning the luxury hit would be $15M/3 or $5M a year. If he says no, I'd look to trade him at the deadline, but tell him we'd love to talk this winter.

     
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    Re: Saltalamacchia--10th best catcher in MLB

    I think Ross was a tremendous sign last year at $3 million. And you were his biggest advocate last winter. I don't think I'd offer him a long term deal though. I'd take the value right now, getting whatever we can get in prospects and save our cash for pitching. Ross should be worth a significant prospect or 2. He hurts our chances of winning this year but not by that much considering how low our prospects of getting into the PO are.

    If we sign him long term it just ties up more cash in an area of relative strength. I'd love to have that RH bat though. We can probably replace it in other ways though via trades, FA signings or prospect development. Lavarnway's RH bat might help also.

    I'm not a big advocate for Brentz but he has potentially a similar bat to Ross down the road. Younger, cheaper and more controllable. Linares might be just as good. I'd give him some playing time and see how he does in Fenway. We have other OF prospects coming up also. Even Bogaerts might well end up an OF. 
     
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    Re: Saltalamacchia--10th best catcher in MLB

    If we sign him long term it just ties up more cash in an area of relative strength. I'd love to have that RH bat though. We can probably replace it in other ways though via trades, FA signings or prospect development. Lavarnway's RH bat might help also.

    I mentioned extending Ross would be best if...
    1) Papi is gone in 2011.
    2) CC is dumped.

    Otherwise, I agree with your point about opening up a door for Linares or another prospect in 2013.
     
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    Re: Saltalamacchia--10th best catcher in MLB

    Having more RH bats would really help. We need a Big RH bopper, ala Manny Ramirez. The kind of guy we should have acquired and put in LF instead of Crawford.

    Just saying! What are the chances we can move Crawford? Next to zero any time in the next few years. 

    It would be great if we could develop that kind of guy. Bogaerts, Brentz, Jacobs. A bat we could hide a little defensively if we needed to in Fenway's LF.
     
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    Re: Saltalamacchia--10th best catcher in MLB

    boom, I did a thread a few years ago about why LF at Fenway should be the ultimate RH-power hitting position. I felt Manny to Bay was the salad days of it, and if it ain't broke don't fix it. The Sox mentality changed to let's get the "best available" player out there, damn the positions, damn the fit to the team, damn the amount of lefties on the roster, basically damn what works. It's another reason of many why the Sox FO let this team go to pieces.
     
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    Re: Saltalamacchia--10th best catcher in MLB

    I also feel that you are far better off having a RH-throwing OF playing the Monster...and yes I know that the Sox had O'Leary who was lefty thrower, but the reality was that Greenwell, Yaz, Williams were all righty throwers and that made a difference for them in LF at Fenway. You don't need an arm out there either, you need a hitter. A power hitter preferably. You don't want a lefty thrower who is a carbon copy of your lefty CF.
     
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    Re: Saltalamacchia--10th best catcher in MLB

    Crawford was a horrendous sign. At no point in that deal were we ever goig to get back a worthwhile return. He wasn't even a good defensive fit in Fenway. That was the killer deal for us, for several more years.

    I'm confident he can hit again. Maybe not this year but after his elbow is fixed but there was no way he was ever going to be worth that kind of money. Theo really blew that one. It appears that no one twisted his arm on that one.

    My only rational is that maybe they thought the "Crawbury" combination was a breakthrough development. The sum of both being larger than individual contributions. More fastballs to the big boppers. More distractions for pitchers. increased pressure on the other team. More ability to win low scoring games. Better run prevention. All those things. They needed to both hit well  though for those scenarios to develop. We may never know if it would have worked.
     
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    Re: Saltalamacchia--10th best catcher in MLB

    In Response to Re: Saltalamacchia--10th best catcher in MLB:
    [QUOTE]Crawford was a horrendous sign. At no point in that deal were we ever goig to get back a worthwhile return. He wasn't even a good defensive fit in Fenway. That was the killer deal for us, for several more years. I'm confident he can hit again. Maybe not this year but after his elbow is fixed but there was no way he was ever going to be worth that kind of money. Theo really blew that one. It appears that no one twisted his arm on that one. My only rational is that maybe they thought the "Crawbury" combination was a breakthrough development. The sum of both being larger than individual contributions. More fastballs to the big boppers. More distractions for pitchers. increased pressure on the other team. More ability to win low scoring games. Better run prevention. All those things. They needed to both hit well  though for those scenarios to develop. We may never know if it would have worked.
    Posted by Boomerangsdotcom[/QUOTE]
    All the things you say. In addition, the FO had no idea that Ellsbury would give a super-star performance in 2011. It didn't even know if he'd be fit to stay on the field regularly. There's some reason to think that the FO viewed Crawford as a replacement for Ellsbury, if not in CF in function. If that scenario was what the FO had in mind, rarely has any FO endured such a complete deflation of plans and expectations. 
    Now, as Moon pointed out virtually from the start, Crawford's contract could block extending or resigning Ellsbury, even if he were content to remain in Boston.
    So here we are.

     
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    Re: Saltalamacchia--10th best catcher in MLB

    In Response to Re: Saltalamacchia--10th best catcher in MLB:
    [QUOTE]Having more RH bats would really help. We need a Big RH bopper, ala Manny Ramirez. The kind of guy we should have acquired and put in LF instead of Crawford. Just saying! What are the chances we can move Crawford? Next to zero any time in the next few years.  It would be great if we could develop that kind of guy. Bogaerts, Brentz, Jacobs. A bat we could hide a little defensively if we needed to in Fenway's LF.
    Posted by Boomerangsdotcom[/QUOTE]

    When Miami came asking about CC, we should have served him up on a silver platter.
     

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