Say what you want, but SOFTY is SPOT ON about JACOBY ELLSBURY .........

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    Re: Say what you want, but SOFTY is SPOT ON about JACOBY ELLSBURY .........

    What a surprise a bunch of Ellsbury fans believe because they bought his jersey that he can do no wrong! As for a leadoff hitter who might be better than Ellsbury how about giving Victorino a shot I think he still knows how to leadoff. I know his OBP is higher than sluggers is... He's also a better option in CF if you want my opinion. Ellsbury couldn't play RF in Fenway, because he's afraid of denting a fingernail.. I could give you plenty of examples which define why Ellsbury is only an average OF but since most of you believe in Santa Claus or live in denial about his limits as a ballplayer I'll save my thoughts for another forum.

     
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    Re: Say what you want, but SOFTY is SPOT ON about JACOBY ELLSBURY .........

    //

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from notin. Show notin's posts

    Re: Say what you want, but SOFTY is SPOT ON about JACOBY ELLSBURY .........

    In response to sportsbozo1's comment:

    What a surprise a bunch of Ellsbury fans believe because they bought his jersey that he can do no wrong! As for a leadoff hitter who might be better than Ellsbury how about giving Victorino a shot I think he still knows how to leadoff. I know his OBP is higher than sluggers is... He's also a better option in CF if you want my opinion. Ellsbury couldn't play RF in Fenway, because he's afraid of denting a fingernail.. I could give you plenty of examples which define why Ellsbury is only an average OF but since most of you believe in Santa Claus or live in denial about his limits as a ballplayer I'll save my thoughts for another forum.




    Ellsbury is not an average OF, but he is certainly not the second coming, either. 

     

    With one exception, I have not seeen anyone say he should be retained beyond this season.  Even his stauncest supporters (again, one exception, same guy) seem to think "Hey, ride the wave to shore, see if he is an Option Year Hero, and then go with Bradley next year while Ellsbury is overpaid elsewhere and the Sox get a draft pick."

     

    The irony is, if his funk continues, the no-brainer of extending a Qualifying Offer might become a significant decision.   There is a chance Ellsbury might leap at a one yer $14mill deal as a chance to rebuild his value.  Worst Case Scenario for him is, he earns about $14mill for one year of work.  So unless Ellsbury turns it around, Boston might be thinking twice about extending the QO, and no QO means no draft pick...

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: Say what you want, but SOFTY is SPOT ON about JACOBY ELLSBURY .........

    In response to notin's comment:

    In response to sportsbozo1's comment:

     

    What a surprise a bunch of Ellsbury fans believe because they bought his jersey that he can do no wrong! As for a leadoff hitter who might be better than Ellsbury how about giving Victorino a shot I think he still knows how to leadoff. I know his OBP is higher than sluggers is... He's also a better option in CF if you want my opinion. Ellsbury couldn't play RF in Fenway, because he's afraid of denting a fingernail.. I could give you plenty of examples which define why Ellsbury is only an average OF but since most of you believe in Santa Claus or live in denial about his limits as a ballplayer I'll save my thoughts for another forum.

     




    Ellsbury is not an average OF, but he is certainly not the second coming, either. 

     

     

    With one exception, I have not seeen anyone say he should be retained beyond this season.  Even his stauncest supporters (again, one exception, same guy) seem to think "Hey, ride the wave to shore, see if he is an Option Year Hero, and then go with Bradley next year while Ellsbury is overpaid elsewhere and the Sox get a draft pick."

     

    The irony is, if his funk continues, the no-brainer of extending a Qualifying Offer might become a significant decision.   There is a chance Ellsbury might leap at a one yer $14mill deal as a chance to rebuild his value.  Worst Case Scenario for him is, he earns about $14mill for one year of work.  So unless Ellsbury turns it around, Boston might be thinking twice about extending the QO, and no QO means no draft pick...




    I think the cubs would surrender their 2nd rounder to get Ells. Especially if they could get him for about that 12-14M per. After Ells' injury past, Im not so sure chancing another year at age 30 would be smart. Unless hes totally all about the money and doesnt realize that 50-60M is still a ton of cash.

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from notin. Show notin's posts

    Re: Say what you want, but SOFTY is SPOT ON about JACOBY ELLSBURY .........

    In response to southpaw777's comment:

    In response to notin's comment:

     

    In response to sportsbozo1's comment:

     

    What a surprise a bunch of Ellsbury fans believe because they bought his jersey that he can do no wrong! As for a leadoff hitter who might be better than Ellsbury how about giving Victorino a shot I think he still knows how to leadoff. I know his OBP is higher than sluggers is... He's also a better option in CF if you want my opinion. Ellsbury couldn't play RF in Fenway, because he's afraid of denting a fingernail.. I could give you plenty of examples which define why Ellsbury is only an average OF but since most of you believe in Santa Claus or live in denial about his limits as a ballplayer I'll save my thoughts for another forum.

     




    Ellsbury is not an average OF, but he is certainly not the second coming, either. 

     

     

    With one exception, I have not seeen anyone say he should be retained beyond this season.  Even his stauncest supporters (again, one exception, same guy) seem to think "Hey, ride the wave to shore, see if he is an Option Year Hero, and then go with Bradley next year while Ellsbury is overpaid elsewhere and the Sox get a draft pick."

     

    The irony is, if his funk continues, the no-brainer of extending a Qualifying Offer might become a significant decision.   There is a chance Ellsbury might leap at a one yer $14mill deal as a chance to rebuild his value.  Worst Case Scenario for him is, he earns about $14mill for one year of work.  So unless Ellsbury turns it around, Boston might be thinking twice about extending the QO, and no QO means no draft pick...

     




    I think the cubs would surrender their 2nd rounder to get Ells. Especially if they could get him for about that 12-14M per. After Ells' injury past, Im not so sure chancing another year at age 30 would be smart. Unless hes totally all about the money and doesnt realize that 50-60M is still a ton of cash.

     




    It could be a tough call for Boras to make.

     

    The Cubs seem to be the early favorites, per another thread.  But I have my doubts.  most of their younf OF talent after Soler are CF types (Sczur, Jackson, Almora), and they may not be in the market.  Obviously not all of them will work out, if any do at all.  But their corner depth in the OF (and INF) is actually atrocious.

     

    Couple that with the fact that, with Epstein running the show, they are more likely to take a CF in the first two rounds than a corner INF or corner OF type, assuming history continues.

     

    While they probably take appel or Gray #2 overall, there is a chance they take a CF like Meadows or Frazier.   Further lessening the need for Ellsbury long term...

     
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    Re: Say what you want, but SOFTY is SPOT ON about JACOBY ELLSBURY .........

    In response to notin's comment:

     

    In response to southpaw777's comment:

     

    In response to notin's comment:

     

    In response to sportsbozo1's comment:

     

    What a surprise a bunch of Ellsbury fans believe because they bought his jersey that he can do no wrong! As for a leadoff hitter who might be better than Ellsbury how about giving Victorino a shot I think he still knows how to leadoff. I know his OBP is higher than sluggers is... He's also a better option in CF if you want my opinion. Ellsbury couldn't play RF in Fenway, because he's afraid of denting a fingernail.. I could give you plenty of examples which define why Ellsbury is only an average OF but since most of you believe in Santa Claus or live in denial about his limits as a ballplayer I'll save my thoughts for another forum.

     




    Ellsbury is not an average OF, but he is certainly not the second coming, either. 

     

     

    With one exception, I have not seeen anyone say he should be retained beyond this season.  Even his stauncest supporters (again, one exception, same guy) seem to think "Hey, ride the wave to shore, see if he is an Option Year Hero, and then go with Bradley next year while Ellsbury is overpaid elsewhere and the Sox get a draft pick."

     

    The irony is, if his funk continues, the no-brainer of extending a Qualifying Offer might become a significant decision.   There is a chance Ellsbury might leap at a one yer $14mill deal as a chance to rebuild his value.  Worst Case Scenario for him is, he earns about $14mill for one year of work.  So unless Ellsbury turns it around, Boston might be thinking twice about extending the QO, and no QO means no draft pick...

     




    I think the cubs would surrender their 2nd rounder to get Ells. Especially if they could get him for about that 12-14M per. After Ells' injury past, Im not so sure chancing another year at age 30 would be smart. Unless hes totally all about the money and doesnt realize that 50-60M is still a ton of cash.

     

     




    It could be a tough call for Boras to make.

     

     

    The Cubs seem to be the early favorites, per another thread.  But I have my doubts.  most of their younf OF talent after Soler are CF types (Sczur, Jackson, Almora), and they may not be in the market.  Obviously not all of them will work out, if any do at all.  But their corner depth in the OF (and INF) is actually atrocious.

     

    Couple that with the fact that, with Epstein running the show, they are more likely to take a CF in the first two rounds than a corner INF or corner OF type, assuming history continues.

     

    While they probably take appel or Gray #2 overall, there is a chance they take a CF like Meadows or Frazier.   Further lessening the need for Ellsbury long term...

     




    I would put money on them going with Grey or Appel. They'd be flloish not to, IMO.

     

    Jackson can play the corners, Almora isnt even close yet, but the key guy is Sczur and how he performs this year and if they value him more than Ellsbury's experience. Soler, Ellsbury and Jackson might work for them and use Sczur as a trade chip to get another needed piece.

    Baez looks like he might go to 3b, leaving Castro at SS. If that happens then Villanueva and Vitters(3b) could be expendable as well. With no real depth at 2b, Villanueva could be switched over because of his size and also Lake if he can turn things around. 1b is obviously set for the forseeable future.

    Thats a lot of room to add some salary with the whole infield and most of the OF being younger cost controled prospects besides Sorianos last year at 18M.

     
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    Re: Say what you want, but SOFTY is SPOT ON about JACOBY ELLSBURY .........

    The Darrin Erstad question is fair game.

    If you dig into the numbers there is reason for optimism but more pessimism. 

    For the optimists:  career babip .319     (2013 .282)  So if his BA goes up 40 points and he contiues his career best 8 % BB he will be a bit above his career .293 BA and .346 OBP 

    For the pessts:  

    2011 GB/FB 1.26  since ~ 1.52 which is his career average.

    2011 LD%  22.6   since ~19.0 (career 19.9)

    2011 HR/FB   16.7%  since ~3.5% (career 8.3%)

    Most of his plate discipline numbers are near career norms except he is making more contact with pitches that are balls (O-contact% 83.7%). Which may explain part of his low BABIP (plus decreased LD%).

    I'd say sadly he is more likely the non 2011 player which reads a lot like his 2008 scouting report:

    Scouting Report: Amazing athlete with a great work ethic.  Ellsbury has consistently won awards for his defensive play in center field.   He is extremely fast and knows how to run the bases.  Demonstrated great on base ability in the minors, but has struggled maintaining that early in his big league career.  Gap power with the ability to leg singles into doubles and doubles into triples.  Not much home run power, doesn't project to add a lot either. Projects well as a major league lead-off hitter. Doesn't slump too often because you can't turn off his blazing speed.  Lettered and excelled in five sports in high school, including football, where he could have played at a very high collegiate level as  a kickoff returner.  However, he enjoys baseball the most.  Could stand to bulk up a little bit.  Arm strength is below average.

     

     
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    Re: Say what you want, but SOFTY is SPOT ON about JACOBY ELLSBURY .........

    In response to softlaw2's comment:

    I think realism is his career averages. That's not optimist or pessimist, that's realist. Those career averages are pretty decent for a leadoff hitter, as his speed and steals make his .340 career OBP much better than someone with a higher OBP.

    The mistake with Ellsbury, from most fans, was thinking he was this superstar and/or destined for greatness. There was nothing about him, from the outset, that reflected that profile.

    He'll be a good value and fit for an NL team, just not for the Red Sox.

      DAD & BILL-806, concur !!!!!


     
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    Re: Say what you want, but SOFTY is SPOT ON about JACOBY ELLSBURY .........

    In response to mryazz's comment:

    In response to softlaw2's comment:

     

    I think realism is his career averages. That's not optimist or pessimist, that's realist. Those career averages are pretty decent for a leadoff hitter, as his speed and steals make his .340 career OBP much better than someone with a higher OBP.

    The mistake with Ellsbury, from most fans, was thinking he was this superstar and/or destined for greatness. There was nothing about him, from the outset, that reflected that profile.

    He'll be a good value and fit for an NL team, just not for the Red Sox.

     




     

    i'm sure your parents felt the same way about you; i'll bet they were extremely disappointed.

    Why do you say these things ??????  SOFTY brings more to this board than 90% of our posters......  Just because he is confident in what he states, the weaker posters (just like the "BIG O" & COMPANY) like to attack & demonize on a regular basis......... The lib/left/rad/soc/enviro/moonbats at work !!!!!

     
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    Re: Say what you want, but SOFTY is SPOT ON about JACOBY ELLSBURY .........

    In response to softlaw2's comment:

    I think realism is his career averages. That's not optimist or pessimist, that's realist. Those career averages are pretty decent for a leadoff hitter, as his speed and steals make his .340 career OBP much better than someone with a higher OBP.

    The mistake with Ellsbury, from most fans, was thinking he was this superstar and/or destined for greatness. There was nothing about him, from the outset, that reflected that profile.

    He'll be a good value and fit for an NL team, just not for the Red Sox.


    I was one that saw more than what was there. I'm beginning to think that he is a better than average CF whose numbers will never meet his highs but will be better than they currently are.

    I'd offer him 30 mil for 3 yrs. Hope he signs.  Then trade him to NL team in July

     

     
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    Re: Say what you want, but SOFTY is SPOT ON about JACOBY ELLSBURY .........

    In response to Bill-806's comment:

     

    Batting  CIRCA  250+-  .........   Instead of bashing SOFTY and BLINDLY following the "OLD HOME TEAM", maybe you should ask BEN what changes are needed ?????

     



    Jacoby certainly isn't helping his FA status, or the top of our order much at the moment.  We will need him to break out at some point to have a real shot.

     

     
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    Re: Say what you want, but SOFTY is SPOT ON about JACOBY ELLSBURY .........

    In response to SonicsMonksLyresVicars' comment:

    In response to trantor's comment:

     

    Softlaw, Bill-806, and georom are fake Sox fans or pretenders. It's that simple.

     



    And you are Pike.  Why do you have so many aliases?

     



    I like Ellsbury - i think he plays hard all the time - just makes it look easy unlike pedey who dives for everything and dirties his uniform

     
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    Re: Say what you want, but SOFTY is SPOT ON about JACOBY ELLSBURY .........

    I like Jacoby too but he needs to produce as our leadoff hitter for the team to have a real shot.  He's also going to have a hard time on the FA market considering I believe CF's like .... 

    Coco Crisp (34)
    Rajai Davis (33)
    Curtis Granderson (33)

    Nyjer Morgan (33)?

    Are also decent free agents but I could be wrong, Ells only advantage the way hes going might be his age.

     
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    Re: Say what you want, but SOFTY is SPOT ON about JACOBY ELLSBURY .........

    In response to 67redsox's comment:

    In response to Bill-806's comment:

     

    Batting  CIRCA  250+-  .........   Instead of bashing SOFTY and BLINDLY following the "OLD HOME TEAM", maybe you should ask BEN what changes are needed ?????

     




    Ellsbury has been a disapointment as far as I'm concerned.  He started strong but he seems to have a chip on his shoulder.

     




    Ellsbury has become a soft and gutless papoose.  Softlaw can tell you that once I was one of his biggest supporters and we went round and round over who was better, Jacoby or Coco back in 2007 and 2008.  I've seen a different Ellsbury the past two seasons and he has become a parody of himself.  He is a very soft and injury prone player and he is playing for a new contract scared to death about playing poorly----and he is doing  exactly that.  His total lack of production the past month is one reason why the team is having trouble putting runs on the board.  His miserable hitting has had a ripple effect throughout the lineup.  Unless he wants to sign a one year incentive laden contract this fall he had better get off the dime and start producing.  He has been sickening to watch, always faking a bunt when everyone knows he's not going to do that because he has never learned how to in order to take advantage of his speed.

     

     

     

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