Shane Victorino

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    Re: Shane Victorino

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
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    In response to southpaw777's comment:
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    In response to moonslav59's comment:
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    In response to BMav's comment:
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    In response to moonslav59's comment:
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    I think offensively it comes down to this with Shane. Was 2012 just a bad year or the beginning of a downhill slide?

    First off, the guy never has been great offensively. He's only had 2 seasons with an OPS over .800, and one was just .803.

     

    [/QUOTE]


    If 2012 was an aberration based on health, low babip, Dodger Stadium and the like, Victorino will end up being a good signing.

    Victorino's offense has never been great. But its been pretty consistent up until last year. His OPS's......

    2010-2011----800
    2009-2011----800
    2008-2011----800
    2007-2011----795

    In the last 2, 3, or 4 year spans prior to last year he has been an  above average offensive player for a RF with exactly an OPS of .800.

    Second there were no great answers in RF to sign IMO. Hamilton has mega issues. Swisher isn't all that impressive.

    The best comparison I think is with Cody Ross. Was Ross at 3-25 or so better then Victorino at 3-39 for RF? Ross is kind of a platoon guy himself. The difference is that Victorino is much better on the bases and on defense. He fits RF much better. And he brings the versatility factor which has some value. The question is was the versatility, defense, and speed worth 14 million over the next 3 years. I think so. Seems as though they did too.

    Oh, and offensively Victorino has been better then Ross over the last few years. People want Ross for his offense. Victorino has been better.

    As for the platoon thing, the real point is the total results. Thats what matters. If they decide to rest him more against tough righties, his OPS should only improve. And if last year was the real Victorino, he still has very good value as a backup-platoon boy-pinch hitter-pinch runner-pinch defender-good club house guy. That will probably be his role in 2015. Hopefully not before then.

     

     

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    His OPS the last 3 years combined is .766.

    Last 4 years .776.

    Last 5 years .780.

    Last 6 years .779.

    Even an .800 OPS for 2013 would not be worth $13M, despite the defensive upgrade.

     

    Sorry, you don't pay $13M to a guy who struggles vs RHPs. Maybe if it's vs LHPs you might, since that is ony about a third of the games, but not vs righties.

    [/QUOTE]


    Sorry to say, But you do pay those prices in todays FA market...

    [/QUOTE]

    Name another player with a .715 OPS in his previous 3 years vs RHPs (60-65% of his PAs) that got $39M/3.

    I guess it is about even to CC getting $20M with a .696 OPS vs LHPs (35-40% of his PAs), but I don't see other teams signing unbalanced players to so much loot.

    Even if you find one, it doesn't make it a prudent signing, and I'm a huge fan of defense.

    [/QUOTE]


    I cant compare to previous years Moon. Its what TODAYS cost for a middle of the road FA costs and its gonna get worse IMO. Naps, Victorino and Gomes are all good, but are not "TOP" FA. Im not mad for what we paid. Its the price for asking a FA to take less years. SV was offered 11M per and Naps wouldve got about 11-12M as well. We paid a bit more to get 3 years. I understand and accept that.

    With some new rules in FA and drafting, FA prices look like their on a big rise in price. Its best to do what BC is doing right now. Building the farm up bigtime and fill holes with FA and trades. Since FA prices are through the roof, building from within is going to be vital for long term success.

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Shane Victorino

    I cant compare to previous years Moon. Its what TODAYS cost for a middle of the road FA costs and its gonna get worse IMO. Naps, Victorino and Gomes are all good, but are not "TOP" FA. Im not mad for what we paid. Its the price for asking a FA to take less years. SV was offered 11M per and Naps wouldve got about 11-12M as well. We paid a bit more to get 3 years. I understand and accept that.

    With some new rules in FA and drafting, FA prices look like their on a big rise in price. Its best to do what BC is doing right now. Building the farm up bigtime and fill holes with FA and trades. Since FA prices are through the roof, building from within is going to be vital for long term success.

     

    I understand the market is what it is, but I have two points to make:

    1) There is a chance we were bidding against ourselves to some extent, but looking at other signings, they don't appear to be massive overpays.

    2) Forget "previous years". Let's revisit these signing next fall and 3 years from now and compare then to the alternative I mentioned (not even my favorite choice):

    Pagan at $40.5M/4

    Ludwick at $15.5M/2

    B McCarthy at $16M/2

    Total $26M, $26M, $10M, $10M= $72M (8 years combined) 

     

    Instead of SV $39M/3, Napoli $39M/3 and $10M/2 for Gomes

    Total: $31M, $31M, $26M, $26M-=$88M (8 years combined)

     

    With the extra $16M, maybe we could have gotten Marcum, or traded Ells (save $8-9M) and had $25M to spend on something even better.

    I've been wrong before. I don't mean to sound like a know-it-all, because I am not. I'm Ok with Naps, but I'd much rather have Pagan and Ludwick instead of SV and JG for about $7M more over the 8 total years combined between the 2 of them.

     

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: Shane Victorino

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    I cant compare to previous years Moon. Its what TODAYS cost for a middle of the road FA costs and its gonna get worse IMO. Naps, Victorino and Gomes are all good, but are not "TOP" FA. Im not mad for what we paid. Its the price for asking a FA to take less years. SV was offered 11M per and Naps wouldve got about 11-12M as well. We paid a bit more to get 3 years. I understand and accept that.

    With some new rules in FA and drafting, FA prices look like their on a big rise in price. Its best to do what BC is doing right now. Building the farm up bigtime and fill holes with FA and trades. Since FA prices are through the roof, building from within is going to be vital for long term success.

     

    I understand the market is what it is, but I have two points to make:

    1) There is a chance we were bidding against ourselves to some extent, but looking at other signings, they don't appear to be massive overpays.

    Your right, they werent massive overpays. Its just market price nowadays.

    2) Forget "previous years". Let's revisit these signing next fall and 3 years from now and compare then to the alternative I mentioned (not even my favorite choice):

    We'll revisit that and the going price for 2nd teir FA in 2015.

    Pagan at $40.5M/4

    Ludwick at $15.5M/2

    B McCarthy at $16M/2

    Total $26M, $26M, $10M, $10M= $72M (8 years combined) 

     

    Instead of SV $39M/3, Napoli $39M/3 and $10M/2 for Gomes

    Total: $31M, $31M, $26M, $26M-=$88M (8 years combined)

     

    With the extra $16M, maybe we could have gotten Marcum, or traded Ells (save $8-9M) and had $25M to spend on something even better.

    I've been wrong before. I don't mean to sound like a know-it-all, because I am not. I'm Ok with Naps, but I'd much rather have Pagan and Ludwick instead of SV and JG for about $7M more over the 8 total years combined between the 2 of them.


    I think Ludwick wanted the Reds all along and pagan SF. I didnt hear much talk with those 2 going anywhere else. McCarthy wouldve been nice, but it takes 2 teams to deal. Doesnt mean BC isnt trying to make a trade. But Im sure he wont overpay in prospects to get a guy.

    As ive been saying lately, its going to be very important for a team to develop its own talent and try to sign them to an extension early on in their career like tampa did with Longo. FA prices are stupid for the talent your getting. Scouting, Drafting and developing is the way to go. THis franchise is lucky to have a big budget. They can pay ridiculous prices for marginal FA and make a smart trade or two all while dipping $$ into their scouting and development part of the organization.

    They need to get back to what Theo said.Which was to make the Red Sox a "scouting and development machine".

     

    [/QUOTE]



     

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Shane Victorino

    In response to southpaw777's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    I cant compare to previous years Moon. Its what TODAYS cost for a middle of the road FA costs and its gonna get worse IMO. Naps, Victorino and Gomes are all good, but are not "TOP" FA. Im not mad for what we paid. Its the price for asking a FA to take less years. SV was offered 11M per and Naps wouldve got about 11-12M as well. We paid a bit more to get 3 years. I understand and accept that.

    With some new rules in FA and drafting, FA prices look like their on a big rise in price. Its best to do what BC is doing right now. Building the farm up bigtime and fill holes with FA and trades. Since FA prices are through the roof, building from within is going to be vital for long term success.

     

    I understand the market is what it is, but I have two points to make:

    1) There is a chance we were bidding against ourselves to some extent, but looking at other signings, they don't appear to be massive overpays.

    Your right, they werent massive overpays. Its just market price nowadays.

    2) Forget "previous years". Let's revisit these signing next fall and 3 years from now and compare then to the alternative I mentioned (not even my favorite choice):

    We'll revisit that and the going price for 2nd teir FA in 2015.

    Pagan at $40.5M/4

    Ludwick at $15.5M/2

    B McCarthy at $16M/2

    Total $26M, $26M, $10M, $10M= $72M (8 years combined) 

     

    Instead of SV $39M/3, Napoli $39M/3 and $10M/2 for Gomes

    Total: $31M, $31M, $26M, $26M-=$88M (8 years combined)

     

    With the extra $16M, maybe we could have gotten Marcum, or traded Ells (save $8-9M) and had $25M to spend on something even better.

    I've been wrong before. I don't mean to sound like a know-it-all, because I am not. I'm Ok with Naps, but I'd much rather have Pagan and Ludwick instead of SV and JG for about $7M more over the 8 total years combined between the 2 of them.


    I think Ludwick wanted the Reds all along and pagan SF. I didnt hear much talk with those 2 going anywhere else. McCarthy wouldve been nice, but it takes 2 teams to deal. Doesnt mean BC isnt trying to make a trade. But Im sure he wont overpay in prospects to get a guy.

    As ive been saying lately, its going to be very important for a team to develop its own talent and try to sign them to an extension early on in their career like tampa did with Longo. FA prices are stupid for the talent your getting. Scouting, Drafting and developing is the way to go. THis franchise is lucky to have a big budget. They can pay ridiculous prices for marginal FA and make a smart trade or two all while dipping $$ into their scouting and development part of the organization.

    They need to get back to what Theo said.Which was to make the Red Sox a "scouting and development machine".

     

    [/QUOTE]



     

    We'll never know if those 3 would have signed here, but my numbers listed were slightly more than what they signed for, and not many take less money to play in Cincy, SF, and AZ.


     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: Shane Victorino

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to southpaw777's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    I cant compare to previous years Moon. Its what TODAYS cost for a middle of the road FA costs and its gonna get worse IMO. Naps, Victorino and Gomes are all good, but are not "TOP" FA. Im not mad for what we paid. Its the price for asking a FA to take less years. SV was offered 11M per and Naps wouldve got about 11-12M as well. We paid a bit more to get 3 years. I understand and accept that.

    With some new rules in FA and drafting, FA prices look like their on a big rise in price. Its best to do what BC is doing right now. Building the farm up bigtime and fill holes with FA and trades. Since FA prices are through the roof, building from within is going to be vital for long term success.

     

    I understand the market is what it is, but I have two points to make:

    1) There is a chance we were bidding against ourselves to some extent, but looking at other signings, they don't appear to be massive overpays.

    Your right, they werent massive overpays. Its just market price nowadays.

    2) Forget "previous years". Let's revisit these signing next fall and 3 years from now and compare then to the alternative I mentioned (not even my favorite choice):

    We'll revisit that and the going price for 2nd teir FA in 2015.

    Pagan at $40.5M/4

    Ludwick at $15.5M/2

    B McCarthy at $16M/2

    Total $26M, $26M, $10M, $10M= $72M (8 years combined) 

     

    Instead of SV $39M/3, Napoli $39M/3 and $10M/2 for Gomes

    Total: $31M, $31M, $26M, $26M-=$88M (8 years combined)

     

    With the extra $16M, maybe we could have gotten Marcum, or traded Ells (save $8-9M) and had $25M to spend on something even better.

    I've been wrong before. I don't mean to sound like a know-it-all, because I am not. I'm Ok with Naps, but I'd much rather have Pagan and Ludwick instead of SV and JG for about $7M more over the 8 total years combined between the 2 of them.


    I think Ludwick wanted the Reds all along and pagan SF. I didnt hear much talk with those 2 going anywhere else. McCarthy wouldve been nice, but it takes 2 teams to deal. Doesnt mean BC isnt trying to make a trade. But Im sure he wont overpay in prospects to get a guy.

    As ive been saying lately, its going to be very important for a team to develop its own talent and try to sign them to an extension early on in their career like tampa did with Longo. FA prices are stupid for the talent your getting. Scouting, Drafting and developing is the way to go. THis franchise is lucky to have a big budget. They can pay ridiculous prices for marginal FA and make a smart trade or two all while dipping $$ into their scouting and development part of the organization.

    They need to get back to what Theo said.Which was to make the Red Sox a "scouting and development machine".

     

    [/QUOTE]



     

    We'll never know if those 3 would have signed here, but my numbers listed were slightly more than what they signed for, and not many take less money to play in Cincy, SF, and AZ.


    [/QUOTE]


    No, we will never know I guess. I guess it just tells us that BC and Co. thought Naps and SV were better/best fits going forward for this team. I know Naps and SV give us more flexability than Ludwick and pagan could. We need pitching though. Im just waiting to see what kind of move BC makes.

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Shane Victorino

    In response to southpaw777's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to southpaw777's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    I cant compare to previous years Moon. Its what TODAYS cost for a middle of the road FA costs and its gonna get worse IMO. Naps, Victorino and Gomes are all good, but are not "TOP" FA. Im not mad for what we paid. Its the price for asking a FA to take less years. SV was offered 11M per and Naps wouldve got about 11-12M as well. We paid a bit more to get 3 years. I understand and accept that.

    With some new rules in FA and drafting, FA prices look like their on a big rise in price. Its best to do what BC is doing right now. Building the farm up bigtime and fill holes with FA and trades. Since FA prices are through the roof, building from within is going to be vital for long term success.

     

    I understand the market is what it is, but I have two points to make:

    1) There is a chance we were bidding against ourselves to some extent, but looking at other signings, they don't appear to be massive overpays.

    Your right, they werent massive overpays. Its just market price nowadays.

    2) Forget "previous years". Let's revisit these signing next fall and 3 years from now and compare then to the alternative I mentioned (not even my favorite choice):

    We'll revisit that and the going price for 2nd teir FA in 2015.

    Pagan at $40.5M/4

    Ludwick at $15.5M/2

    B McCarthy at $16M/2

    Total $26M, $26M, $10M, $10M= $72M (8 years combined) 

     

    Instead of SV $39M/3, Napoli $39M/3 and $10M/2 for Gomes

    Total: $31M, $31M, $26M, $26M-=$88M (8 years combined)

     

    With the extra $16M, maybe we could have gotten Marcum, or traded Ells (save $8-9M) and had $25M to spend on something even better.

    I've been wrong before. I don't mean to sound like a know-it-all, because I am not. I'm Ok with Naps, but I'd much rather have Pagan and Ludwick instead of SV and JG for about $7M more over the 8 total years combined between the 2 of them.


    I think Ludwick wanted the Reds all along and pagan SF. I didnt hear much talk with those 2 going anywhere else. McCarthy wouldve been nice, but it takes 2 teams to deal. Doesnt mean BC isnt trying to make a trade. But Im sure he wont overpay in prospects to get a guy.

    As ive been saying lately, its going to be very important for a team to develop its own talent and try to sign them to an extension early on in their career like tampa did with Longo. FA prices are stupid for the talent your getting. Scouting, Drafting and developing is the way to go. THis franchise is lucky to have a big budget. They can pay ridiculous prices for marginal FA and make a smart trade or two all while dipping $$ into their scouting and development part of the organization.

    They need to get back to what Theo said.Which was to make the Red Sox a "scouting and development machine".

     

    [/QUOTE]



     

    We'll never know if those 3 would have signed here, but my numbers listed were slightly more than what they signed for, and not many take less money to play in Cincy, SF, and AZ.


    [/QUOTE]


    No, we will never know I guess. I guess it just tells us that BC and Co. thought Naps and SV were better/best fits going forward for this team. I know Naps and SV give us more flexability than Ludwick and pagan could. We need pitching though. Im just waiting to see what kind of move BC makes.

    [/QUOTE]


    Pagan would have given us as much flex as anyone. Ludwick can play LF & RF better than Gomes.

    Naps does fit well, especially when we go to NL parks. He can catch as Papi plays 1B and we get better on offense those games.

     
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