Should the Boston Red Sox Trade Jacoby Ellsbury by the trading deadline/sign him/let him walk?

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from emp9. Show emp9's posts

    Re: Should the Boston Red Sox Trade Jacoby Ellsbury by the trading deadline/sign him/let him walk?

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    In response to UnionFallsNY's comment:

     

    Both valid opinions from the viewpoint of the long-term from an ownership perspective. I might also be what a fantasy baseball player would want to do.  Those who are more myopic or short-signted and just want to maximize this year's enjoyment as a fan would only be concerned about this season. Everyone is different in their fandom.

     



    Well put. 

     

    I put a lot of weight in the value of the comp pick attached to Ellsbury. While it would be nice to get it for us, it should have equal value to other teams as well (perhaps more, since most teams have worse farms than us).

    My position is that Ellsbury must have higher value to a team in heavy ring competition mode, so in theory, they should give something very nice in return for Ellsbury and the draft pick.



    This wouldn't break my heart. Any noticable front runners to make that deal off the top of your head? 

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from carnie. Show carnie's posts

    Re: Should the Boston Red Sox Trade Jacoby Ellsbury by the trading deadline/sign him/let him walk?

    In response to Hetchinspete's comment:

    In response to carnieSF's comment:

     

    The Sox  are moving away from the six- and seven-year deals. Boras thinks there is a team out there willing to give Ellsbury those six or seven years. Thus, Ellsbury is gone. The 2013 Sox aren't going too far in October; therefore, trade him by the deadline.

     



    Carnie, 

     

    In all respect to you, why do we need to beat a "dead horse". This has been subject of a million and one discussions already ad-nauseum. 

    Hetch




    That's not carnie. I have my own personal stalker. Isn't that special?

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from Joebreidey. Show Joebreidey's posts

    Re: Should the Boston Red Sox Trade Jacoby Ellsbury by the trading deadline/sign him/let him walk?

    You don't have the necessary information to make question answerable.

    If we are in contention, we won't trade him.

    If we aren't, then we will trade him if the comp is higher than the equivalent of a #33 pick.

    Kind of pointless to discuss it without putting parameters on it.

     
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  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from emp9. Show emp9's posts

    Re: Should the Boston Red Sox Trade Jacoby Ellsbury by the trading deadline/sign him/let him walk?

    No, I'm talking now not the deadline. 

     
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  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from snakeoil123. Show snakeoil123's posts

    Re: Should the Boston Red Sox Trade Jacoby Ellsbury by the trading deadline/sign him/let him walk?

    In response to softlaw2's comment:

    They should trade him now, and include Bailey and Carp with him. With the draft compenation, that will net the top prospect from the Rangers or another team.  



    Sure lets trade those three for a top prospect with another team.

    Done.

     
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  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from emp9. Show emp9's posts

    Re: Should the Boston Red Sox Trade Jacoby Ellsbury by the trading deadline/sign him/let him walk?

    In response to softlaw2's comment:

    They should trade him now, and include Bailey and Carp with him. With the draft compenation, that will net the top prospect from the Rangers or another team.  



    Rangers do need a closer & they seem to be pondering a CF upgrade. Both Ells & Bailey have this year left on their contract/control. Idk about Carp. 

     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Should the Boston Red Sox Trade Jacoby Ellsbury by the trading deadline/sign him/let him walk?

    In response to emp9's comment:

     

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    In response to UnionFallsNY's comment:

     

    Both valid opinions from the viewpoint of the long-term from an ownership perspective. I might also be what a fantasy baseball player would want to do.  Those who are more myopic or short-signted and just want to maximize this year's enjoyment as a fan would only be concerned about this season. Everyone is different in their fandom.

     



    Well put. 

     

    I put a lot of weight in the value of the comp pick attached to Ellsbury. While it would be nice to get it for us, it should have equal value to other teams as well (perhaps more, since most teams have worse farms than us).

    My position is that Ellsbury must have higher value to a team in heavy ring competition mode, so in theory, they should give something very nice in return for Ellsbury and the draft pick.

     



    This wouldn't break my heart. Any noticable front runners to make that deal off the top of your head? 

     

     



    That's the big question. Most contending teams are already pretty well set in the OF. Their equation would be this:

     

    How much more valuable is Ellsbury than what they have now, and is that differential worth what they'd have to give up.

    A major injury before the season begins could cause a desperate offer from some GM, but I really do not see any deal that jumps out at me right now. softy proposed a deal to the Rangers, and they may be interested in obtaining Jacoby before the season starts, but I'm not sure they'd agree to his offer. Maybe SF? Cincy? Washington? I'm not so sure.

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Should the Boston Red Sox Trade Jacoby Ellsbury by the trading deadline/sign him/let him walk?

    In response to Joebreidey's comment:

    You don't have the necessary information to make question answerable.

    If we are in contention, we won't trade him.

    If we aren't, then we will trade him if the comp is higher than the equivalent of a #33 pick.

    Kind of pointless to discuss it without putting parameters on it.



    True, but it also may not be the #33 pick. It may be #31 or #35, or...

     
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  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Should the Boston Red Sox Trade Jacoby Ellsbury by the trading deadline/sign him/let him walk?

    In response to emp9's comment:

    In response to softlaw2's comment:

     

    They should trade him now, and include Bailey and Carp with him. With the draft compenation, that will net the top prospect from the Rangers or another team.  

     



    Rangers do need a closer & they seem to be pondering a CF upgrade. Both Ells & Bailey have this year left on their contract/control. Idk about Carp. 

     



    Carp is not desirable. I doubt Rangers would want to downgrade from 4 years of control of Moreland to Carp. Would the upgrade in the OF for just the 1 year of Ellsbury (over Craig Gentry) control be worth it to them? Perhaps, if they can extend him and like him as a player more than softy does.

    Bailey has 1 arb year after 2013. His value to the Rangers may be very significant.

    Adding 3 players and losing 1 to their 40 man roster at this point in the season may not be too desirable to any team, and that's assuming the prospect we get is on their 40 man roster right now. They may have to cut players they do not  want to cut to make room for Carp. I suppose they might give us a low rung 40 man roster player as part of the deal, whether we want him or not (contract dump?) or a player like Gentry (RH'd hitting OF'er).

    Then, we have Moreland, Napoli and Papi if and when healthy to play in 2 slots: 1B and DH. I just don't see this trade working. I could see Ellsbury and Bailey for Gentry and a top prospect.

    Baseball America's Ranger top 3-9 prospects:

    3. Martin Perez, lhp 4. Leonys Martin, of 5. Justin Grimm, rhp 6. Luke Jackson, rhp 7. Luis Sardinas, ss/2b 8. Cody Buckel, rhp 9. Jorge Alfaro, c/1b
     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from emp9. Show emp9's posts

    Re: Should the Boston Red Sox Trade Jacoby Ellsbury by the trading deadline/sign him/let him walk?

    Rangers are looking for a #5 SP also, but... And I read on Trade Rumors that BoSox aren't looking to trade any BP depth, which I found a little surprising. 

     

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from hill55. Show hill55's posts

    Re: Should the Boston Red Sox Trade Jacoby Ellsbury by the trading deadline/sign him/let him walk?

    In response to softlaw2's comment:

    Carp would be so the Rangers have something, even if grossly inferior, to replace Moreland, who the Red Sox should require in the trade. 1 player like Bailey, 1 year of Ellsbury, and 1 draft compensation player if they don't sign Ellsbury, that should net back a career bench/platoon guy like Moreland and a team's top prospect. If the Rangers won't do it, another team will do it.

    For what it's worth, 26-year-old Mike Carp has posted an OPS+ of 110 and a WAR* 0.6 in 173 career games while 27-year-old Mitch Moreland has posted an OPS+ of 101 and a WAR of 0.8 in 295 career games. Each remains under his team's control for four seasons.

    * Wins Above Replacement as reported at Baseball Reference. FanGraphs has Carp at 1.1 career WAR and Moreland at 1.6 career WAR.

     
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  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Should the Boston Red Sox Trade Jacoby Ellsbury by the trading deadline/sign him/let him walk?

    In response to hill55's comment:

    In response to softlaw2's comment:

    Carp would be so the Rangers have something, even if grossly inferior, to replace Moreland, who the Red Sox should require in the trade. 1 player like Bailey, 1 year of Ellsbury, and 1 draft compensation player if they don't sign Ellsbury, that should net back a career bench/platoon guy like Moreland and a team's top prospect. If the Rangers won't do it, another team will do it.


    For what it's worth, 26-year-old Mike Carp has posted an OPS+ of 110 and a WAR* 0.6 in 173 career games while 27-year-old Mitch Moreland has posted an OPS+ of 101 and a WAR of 0.8 in 295 career games. Each remains under his team's control for four seasons.

     

    * Wins Above Replacement as reported at Baseball Reference. FanGraphs has Carp at 1.1 career WAR and Moreland at 1.6 career WAR.



    I'm not high on Moreland, but I do think he's better than Carp. If not, why didn't Texas go after Carp?

     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from hill55. Show hill55's posts

    Re: Should the Boston Red Sox Trade Jacoby Ellsbury by the trading deadline/sign him/let him walk?

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    In response to hill55's comment:

    In response to softlaw2's comment:

    Carp would be so the Rangers have something, even if grossly inferior, to replace Moreland, who the Red Sox should require in the trade. 1 player like Bailey, 1 year of Ellsbury, and 1 draft compensation player if they don't sign Ellsbury, that should net back a career bench/platoon guy like Moreland and a team's top prospect. If the Rangers won't do it, another team will do it.

    For what it's worth, 26-year-old Mike Carp has posted an OPS+ of 110 and a WAR* 0.6 in 173 career games while 27-year-old Mitch Moreland has posted an OPS+ of 101 and a WAR of 0.8 in 295 career games. Each remains under his team's control for four seasons.

    * Wins Above Replacement as reported at Baseball Reference. FanGraphs has Carp at 1.1 career WAR and Moreland at 1.6 career WAR.

    I'm not high on Moreland, but I do think he's better than Carp. If not, why didn't Texas go after Carp?

    Because one Mitch Moreland is enough?

    ... and because the Rangers had already spent $10 million on Lance Berkman?

     
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  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Should the Boston Red Sox Trade Jacoby Ellsbury by the trading deadline/sign him/let him walk?

    Gomez in Fenway's RF makes no sense.

    Calling it stupid to save 1 year of control of Bradley over 2 weeks in AAA makes no sense.

     

    Trading Ellsbury and Bailey to Texas for David Murphy (kills RH'd pitchers) and a top prospect(s) makes a ton of sense.

     
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  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from hill55. Show hill55's posts

    Re: Should the Boston Red Sox Trade Jacoby Ellsbury by the trading deadline/sign him/let him walk?

    Will Jacoby Ellsbury receive a qualifying offer next offseason if he posts a .275/.315/.385/.700 line this season with a sub-100 OPS+ and his pre-2011 fielding?

    Ellsbury may well be on his downhill side as he approaches his 30th birthday in September.

    Or not.

     
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  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from hill55. Show hill55's posts

    Re: Should the Boston Red Sox Trade Jacoby Ellsbury by the trading deadline/sign him/let him walk?

    In response to softlaw2's comment:

    yes, Hill, he will recive a qualifying offer because it's only one year and because he's age 30 his agent will be sure to turn it down and easily get a 2 or 3 year and 10M deal in the worst possible case.

    Would Jacoby Ellsbury ask for a midseason trade to avoid the potential qualifying offer and resulting draft-pick forfeiture that hindered Scott Boras clients Michael Bourn and Kyle Lohse this offseason?

     

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