SI's Verducci WEEI: 'Red flags' on Crawford

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    Re: SI's Verducci WEEI: 'Red flags' on Crawford

    'Moneyball' and the Bill James philosophy does not work.

    It is so much horsedung that it is not even funny anymore.

    What it does is it makes teams like Oakland and Minnesota failures , but not 'colossal" failures because even though they don't win anything, they don't spend alot of money failing , so the failure seems less glaring.

    When New York or Boston applies "moneyball" it usually is to round out the roster, both teams have high priced regulars and when they fail with these huge payrolls it is devastating.

    The way to success is not "moneyball", it is knowing the makeup of your players...do they love the game?, do they have a good work ethic?, can they produce under pressure?, are they going to tank it after signing a big contract? ...computer models and printouts don't tell you this, you have to watch them play, converse with them and players that they have played with and against, etc.

    What do stats tell you about the abilities and the work ethic of Dustin Pedroia vs. Alex Rodrigues?...the stats would say A-Rod is the better player to have on your team...the stats lie. They are constantly bombarding us with new measuring tools, new stats, You don't need them , use your eyes.
     
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    Re: SI's Verducci WEEI: 'Red flags' on Crawford

    Interesting approach. I want to see what the guy comes with next year, not giving up on him yet.
     
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    Re: SI's Verducci WEEI: 'Red flags' on Crawford

    Fenway tends to increase Batting Averages not decrease them.

    My eyes say that steals or fielding ability don't have an impact on batting average.  My eyes look at the stats and see that Crawford batted .290 at Fenway from 2008-2010, 1 point below his overall average.

    Based on what Carl Crawford did at Fenway while playing for Tampa, he should be as successful at fenway as he was anyplace else.

    And when my eyes look at Carl Crawford's stats for 2011, I see that his batting average at Fenway (275) was much higher than it was on the road (.236).

    What my eyes tell me is that Verducci is clueless.
     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from fivekatz. Show fivekatz's posts

    Re: SI's Verducci WEEI: 'Red flags' on Crawford

    Good points about the Moneyball myth Zilla.

    OTOH may I say that at the same ages I'd rather have had A-Rod at SS than Pedey at 2B. Now we can argue about how much "roids" may have tainted the numbers but A-Rod at 27 was a beast and by far the best player in MLB. Your eyes by the way would have told you that.
     
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    Re: SI's Verducci WEEI: 'Red flags' on Crawford

    In Response to Re: SI's Verducci WEEI: 'Red flags' on Crawford:
    Fenway tends to increase Batting Averages not decrease them. My eyes say that steals or fielding ability don't have an impact on batting average.  My eyes look at the stats and see that Crawford batted .290 at Fenway from 2008-2010, 1 point below his overall average. Based on what Carl Crawford did at Fenway while playing for Tampa, he should be as successful at fenway as he was anyplace else. And when my eyes look at Carl Crawford's stats for 2011, I see that his batting average at Fenway (275) was much higher than it was on the road (.236). What my eyes tell me is that Verducci is clueless.
    Posted by DirtyWaterLover
    I think the point he was trying to make right or wrong, was that ballpark mitigated his defensive range, the fact that Fenway does increase BA and his team is such a high OBP team limited his running opportunities (BS IMO BTW Crawford just was reluctant to run to the point the manager talked about it) and Fenway kills mutes his pull HR power.

    But you are right Crawford's issues in 2011 were way bigger than Fenway and showed on the opening road trip and seldom disappeared through 2011.

    He makes fair points about his swing style or at least I think so because I harped all year that he had to close his stance.
     
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    Re: SI's Verducci WEEI: 'Red flags' on Crawford

    In Response to Re: SI's Verducci WEEI: 'Red flags' on Crawford:
    He makes fair points about his swing style or at least I think so because I harped all year that he had to close his stance.
    Posted by fivekatz
    I think I said at one point that Crawford's batting stance looked like Bill Hall from the other side of the plate. How good could Crawford be if he closed his stance just a little?
     
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    Re: SI's Verducci WEEI: 'Red flags' on Crawford

    I don't buy playing at Fenway had a negative impact on him.

    Now, I will consider that he's never played in the majors for anyone other than Madden.  I might consider that Madden's style had an impact.  I might consider that Madden treating these guys like they're in high school may have had an impact.  Crawford wouldn't be the first Tampa Player who had troubles after they left Tampa (Julio Lugo, Scott Kazmir).  I would even say that playing in Boston was tough, but he was bad from day 1, before the Boston media had a chance to impact him.

    But I will agree that Crawford is not a good fit for Fenway, even if 2011 had been a good year.  And here's why - he's too much player for LF at Fenway.  I agree that his Athleticism is wasted at Fenway.  That doesn't mean he can't play LF at Fenway really well.  It means the Sox could have gotten a less athletic LF for less money that could have performed as well as Crawford in LF.

    I think Vlad Guerrero would have been a better pick up - half the money, better arm, similar offensive production expectations, and he could have replaced Ortiz as the DH next year and he hit right handed.  He could have played RF away from Fenway (he no longer has the mobility to play RF at fenway).

    With Crawford, they paid for skills they didn't need.  It's like using a 6 x 6 where a 4 x 4 was all that was needed. 

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from Beantowne. Show Beantowne's posts

    Re: SI's Verducci WEEI: 'Red flags' on Crawford

    I guess I'll file this one under tell me something that I don't already know?

    That said, end of the day by hook or by crook the new manager of the Red Sox is going to have to figure out how to best use his skills and like it or not..I'd bat Crawford in the 2 hole behind Ells and in front of Pedrioa...I'd look at moving him to RF where his arm might not play, but his legs and GG ability would...

    This would accomplish three things...

    1) by moving him into the two hole he'll see a ton of fastballs, teams won't want to pitch around him with Pedrioa and Gonzalez behind him....Then he can just simply step in and see ball hit ball like he did in Tampa.

    2) With he and Ells 1-2 Pedrioa will come to bat with one or the other on base in large pct of his at bats and with Gonzalez behind him he'd also see his share of fastballs and with two base stealers in front of him will still be able to take advantabe of the hole on the rightside and when teams are covering the steal...

    3) by moving him to RF...it broadens the profile of OFer we can aquire to play left de-emphasizing the Drew factor from the RF criteria...Crawford will get to more balls in RF than any RF since Dewey...
     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from soxmeister. Show soxmeister's posts

    Re: SI's Verducci WEEI: 'Red flags' on Crawford

    We'll see ... plenty of talent, it did not just vanish.  He has nowhere to go but up.
     
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    Re: SI's Verducci WEEI: 'Red flags' on Crawford

    Where was Verduccidiot when a very few were condemning the Crawford contract offer? His comments after the fact are meaningless.
     
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    Re: SI's Verducci WEEI: 'Red flags' on Crawford

    In Response to Re: SI's Verducci WEEI: 'Red flags' on Crawford:
    We'll see ... plenty of talent, it did not just vanish.  He has nowhere to go but up.
    Posted by soxmeister


    here's a little something something for all to chew on....Carl Crawford is the 1st player since Ty Cobb to amass 200 2B, 100 3B 100 HR and have 400 SB in his career...ever hear of Ty Cobb...That's the guy we signed and that's the guy that the new manager has to get to play his game...He didn't just show up in Boston and forget how to hit...
     
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    Re: SI's Verducci WEEI: 'Red flags' on Crawford

    Crawford in RF will cost runs.  He's got a terrible arm.  I don't know if it's weak.  But his accuracy is really had.  He couldn't hit the broad side of a barn.  I don't think he ever intentionally missed the cut off man - I think he just missed.
     
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    Re: SI's Verducci WEEI: 'Red flags' on Crawford

    "What do stats tell you about the abilities and the work ethic of Dustin Pedroia vs. Alex Rodrigues?...the stats would say A-Rod is the better player to have on your team...the stats lie."

    The stats lie?  Aside from the fact that A-Rod has a legendary work ethic by any measurable stat A-Rod IS a better ball player than Pedroia.  

    Pedroia is a player I admire but if you've a point to make about stats you need a better analogy.   Your irrational hatred for A-Rod is undermining your point.


     
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    Re: SI's Verducci WEEI: 'Red flags' on Crawford

    "Now, I will consider that he's never played in the majors for anyone other than Madden"

    He came up under Hal MacRae and played tweo years for Lou Pinella.
     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from DirtyWaterLover. Show DirtyWaterLover's posts

    Re: SI's Verducci WEEI: 'Red flags' on Crawford

    The stats say the Arods numbers were inflated by admitted steroid use.

    The stats say that off steroids, Arod is a 285 hitter with 25-30 home runs, which is very good.   Pedroia is a 300 hitter 117-19 home runs, whichis also very good.

    Pedroia makes $5.8 million and ARod makes $32 million.  $32 million for a guy that average 125 games per year over the past 4 years. 

    Your man-love for Arod blinds you to what a terrible signing he is.  $32 million.  He's a good signing at $20 million, but $32 million - no way.
     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from notin. Show notin's posts

    Re: SI's Verducci WEEI: 'Red flags' on Crawford

    In Response to Re: SI's Verducci WEEI: 'Red flags' on Crawford:
    In Response to Re: SI's Verducci WEEI: 'Red flags' on Crawford : here's a little something something for all to chew on....Carl Crawford is the 1st player since Ty Cobb to amass 200 2B, 100 3B 100 HR and have 400 SB in his career...ever hear of Ty Cobb...That's the guy we signed and that's the guy that the new manager has to get to play his game...He didn't just show up in Boston and forget how to hit...
    Posted by Beantowne


    Not true.

    Frankie Frisch, Lou Brock, Paul Molitor, Tim Raines and Kenny Lofton all did as well.

    But I look at it this way - not only is that some pretty good company to be in, but  Crawford also did it faster than all of them...
     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from expitch. Show expitch's posts

    Re: SI's Verducci WEEI: 'Red flags' on Crawford

    In Response to Re: SI's Verducci WEEI: 'Red flags' on Crawford:
    'Moneyball' and the Bill James philosophy does not work. It is so much horsedung that it is not even funny anymore. What it does is it makes teams like Oakland and Minnesota failures , but not 'colossal" failures because even though they don't win anything, they don't spend alot of money failing , so the failure seems less glaring. When New York or Boston applies "moneyball" it usually is to round out the roster, both teams have high priced regulars and when they fail with these huge payrolls it is devastating. The way to success is not "moneyball", it is knowing the makeup of your players...do they love the game?, do they have a good work ethic?, can they produce under pressure?, are they going to tank it after signing a big contract? ...computer models and printouts don't tell you this, you have to watch them play, converse with them and players that they have played with and against, etc. What do stats tell you about the abilities and the work ethic of Dustin Pedroia vs. Alex Rodrigues?...the stats would say A-Rod is the better player to have on your team...the stats lie. They are constantly bombarding us with new measuring tools, new stats, You don't need them , use your eyes.
    Posted by ZILLAGOD

    Here, here.
     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from expitch. Show expitch's posts

    Re: SI's Verducci WEEI: 'Red flags' on Crawford

    In Response to Re: SI's Verducci WEEI: 'Red flags' on Crawford:
    Good points about the Moneyball myth Zilla. OTOH may I say that at the same ages I'd rather have had A-Rod at SS than Pedey at 2B. Now we can argue about how much "roids" may have tainted the numbers but A-Rod at 27 was a beast and by far the best player in MLB. Your eyes by the way would have told you that.
    Posted by fivekatz
    I'll have to think twice about this one. No question that ARod then was the best player in MLB, but was he the best player to have on your team? 

     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from notin. Show notin's posts

    Re: SI's Verducci WEEI: 'Red flags' on Crawford

    In Response to Re: SI's Verducci WEEI: 'Red flags' on Crawford:
    'Moneyball' and the Bill James philosophy does not work. It is so much horsedung that it is not even funny anymore. What it does is it makes teams like Oakland and Minnesota failures , but not 'colossal" failures because even though they don't win anything, they don't spend alot of money failing , so the failure seems less glaring. When New York or Boston applies "moneyball" it usually is to round out the roster, both teams have high priced regulars and when they fail with these huge payrolls it is devastating. The way to success is not "moneyball", it is knowing the makeup of your players...do they love the game?, do they have a good work ethic?, can they produce under pressure?, are they going to tank it after signing a big contract? ...computer models and printouts don't tell you this, you have to watch them play, converse with them and players that they have played with and against, etc. What do stats tell you about the abilities and the work ethic of Dustin Pedroia vs. Alex Rodrigues?...the stats would say A-Rod is the better player to have on your team...the stats lie. They are constantly bombarding us with new measuring tools, new stats, You don't need them , use your eyes.
    Posted by ZILLAGOD


    Carl Crawford was not exactly a "Moneyball" player, and actually goes a long way towards proving the philosophy than not.

    By the way, what are you basing Carl Crawford's work ethic and passion on?  The man had the opportunity to play division 1 basketball at UCLA and division 1 football at Nebraska, Florida, Texas and other schools. but instead chose baseball.  Does that tell you he hates baseball somehow?

    Or better yet - are you saying you can scout a player's passion and work ethic by watching him?   What else does it tell you?  The people on this board have watched Lackey all year and determined him to be an attitude problem, yet the Sox manager refuted it.  Guess who is the only one to actually know?  (And many still contend he is.  Apparently believing eyes does not apply to ears as well.)

    What did your eyes tell you about Crawford that the rest of the world missed?  And why is a one year sample from a 9 year career the only valid data point?

    There are some solid realities to moneyball and using other tools to evaluate players.  If you don't like them, don't use them.  To be honest, no one in any front office anywhere cares what we think on this message board, or if we have embraced sabermetrics.

    However, if you want to climb back into the stone ages of BA/HR/RBI and the Sox to adopt your appraoch, they are far, far more likely to keep making the same mistakes that this team made from 1918 through 2004.

    By the way, you offered nothing to support why A-Ros is the worse player.  An unfair comparison, given A-Rod is 8 years older and plays a different position.

    But if you want to compare passion and work ethic to simply gifted athletes with gaudy stats, who would you rather have as your shortstop - Mike Aviles or Jose Reyes?  No scouts ever liked Aviles. Aviles played division 2 ball and was surpsie 7th round overdraft.  His bonus when he signed for $1,000.  When the Royals called him up last year, he wasn't even starting in AAA.  I would bet there isn't a happier guy to be in MLB than Mike Aviles.  He works hard.  He does everything he possibly can.

    Or, do you like Jose Reyes and his MVP potential? 
     
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    Re: SI's Verducci WEEI: 'Red flags' on Crawford




    Lets face it we hope and expect him to return to the norm in 2012, and even then its obvious - he is not a great player. This is Theo's biggest red mark.
     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from Beantowne. Show Beantowne's posts

    Re: SI's Verducci WEEI: 'Red flags' on Crawford

    In Response to Re: SI's Verducci WEEI: 'Red flags' on Crawford:
    In Response to Re: SI's Verducci WEEI: 'Red flags' on Crawford : Not true. Frankie Frisch, Lou Brock, Paul Molitor, Tim Raines and Kenny Lofton all did as well. But I look at it this way - not only is that some pretty good company to be in, but  Crawford also did it faster than all of them...
    Posted by notin


    before turning 30....
     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from notin. Show notin's posts

    Re: SI's Verducci WEEI: 'Red flags' on Crawford

    In Response to Re: SI's Verducci WEEI: 'Red flags' on Crawford:
    In Response to Re: SI's Verducci WEEI: 'Red flags' on Crawford : before turning 30....
    Posted by Beantowne


    That does make a difference.  I read it three times and said "No way!"

    As I did say, he got those numbers faster than all the others, and 3 of those 5 are Hall of Famers...
     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from Beantowne. Show Beantowne's posts

    Re: SI's Verducci WEEI: 'Red flags' on Crawford

    In Response to Re: SI's Verducci WEEI: 'Red flags' on Crawford:
    In Response to Re: SI's Verducci WEEI: 'Red flags' on Crawford : That does make a difference.  I read it three times and said "No way!" As I did say, he got those numbers faster than all the others, and 3 of those 5 are Hall of Famers...
    Posted by notin


    Hey notin,

    End of the day that's the Carl Crawford we signed and it's not like he came off a career year...For his sake and that of the Red Sox I sure hope he just lets in all go and comes to camp ready to play in the spring...
     
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    Re: SI's Verducci WEEI: 'Red flags' on Crawford

    In Response to Re: SI's Verducci WEEI: 'Red flags' on Crawford:
    Fenway tends to increase Batting Averages not decrease them. My eyes say that steals or fielding ability don't have an impact on batting average.  My eyes look at the stats and see that Crawford batted .290 at Fenway from 2008-2010, 1 point below his overall average. Based on what Carl Crawford did at Fenway while playing for Tampa, he should be as successful at fenway as he was anyplace else. And when my eyes look at Carl Crawford's stats for 2011, I see that his batting average at Fenway (275) was much higher than it was on the road (.236). What my eyes tell me is that Verducci is clueless.
    Posted by DirtyWaterLover


    Haha! I am one that believes Carl Crawford has a great season next year, and all these people will be turning and telling everyone how they saw signs of his turn around.  We may have some negative naysayer writers here in Boston but at least they know the stats they are talking abut, these national guys dont even go to watch these games daily and yet they think there are experts on every player in baseball.

     
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