SI's Verducci WEEI: 'Red flags' on Crawford

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    Re: SI's Verducci WEEI: 'Red flags' on Crawford

    I wonder how many people who throw around the word "Moneyball" and discuss Bill James have actually read the related material.

    First, it is literally impossible to say "Moneyball is a myth."  It is a concept that literally defines itself as dismantling a myth.  Let's be clear: if something were called a "moneyball principle" and was in fact a myth, then the actual "Moneyball" (as defined by Billy Beane in the book) approach to that would be to label it a myth.

    Moneyball was an attempt to discover skills that had not been monetized by the market, so that the A's could try to be more competitive with less money.  If in the book OBP was emphasized, that was in 2001 (? - from memory here), and if OBP is now recognized and valued in the market, then it is no longer a "Moneyball stat."

    Further, if you had been reading the Baseball Abstract for years, one of James' refrains was that every year he looked forward to players changing their SABRmetrical baselines -- in other words, he often talked about how statistics aren't everything.

    SABRmetrics - like all baseball stats - are retrospective.  Relying upon them to predict the future to the exclusion of other analytical tools is foolish, and not at all what Bill James is about.

    But statistics have meaning, and if you use them you aren't trying as hard as you can if you don't use the best stats available. 

    *************

    Verducci sounds like an armchair GM with just enough sense to be overconfident. 

    Carl Crawford had a bad year; these things happen.  Athletes also decline - we won't know until mid-2013 which we saw in 2011.

    My gut tells me he'll be better next year, but unless the RS have a huge personality makeover, he'll be contributing to a 3rd place team.
     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: SI's Verducci WEEI: 'Red flags' on Crawford

    So while Crawford may struggle with his OBP he does possess a number of other skills that are equally valuable in the Bill James school of baseball by the numbers... Specifically his ability to steal bases and his total XBH tranlate into a very positive "runs created" formula. His speed translates into better range in Left this less ball find grass and works in the runs saved category. 

    I read "Moneyball". I recall it placing virtually no value on SBs unless the % was over 80% and near 80% was abotu even.

    Speed in the OF does not always equate to better range, if the player gets poor breaks or takes the wrong angle.
     
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    Re: SI's Verducci WEEI: 'Red flags' on Crawford

    In Response to Re: SI's Verducci WEEI: 'Red flags' on Crawford:
    [QUOTE]With all these 4-7 year contract signing we had lately, you have no idea what you're getting because they haven't played 1 day in the uniform yet. This long term contracts are a death wish in free agent markets. Gil Meche, Barry Zito, Carl Pavano, Jose Contreras. Should I go on? The bottom line is you don't know what you're getting. You're better off with a 2 year 30 million deal instead of 5 years at 50 million. I know its hard but you can always resign players.
    Posted by RedSoxFan2OO4[/QUOTE]

    Here's an actual look at the largest contracts in baseball history:

    Take a look and tell me what percentage of these players "earned" their paycheck. What percent even earned half their paycheck? Then, when you look at the short list, most of those on that list had serious issues at some point of the deal either on or off the field, or in some way had a big black mark associated with their career...

    Total Value 
    The most lucrative contracts in baseball history, by total value: 
    1. Alex Rodriguez, $275,000,000 (2008-17) 
    2. Alex Rodriguez, $252,000,000 (2001-10) 
    3. Derek Jeter, $189,000,000 (2001-10) 
    4. Joe Mauer, $184,000,000 (2011-18) 
    5. Mark Teixeira, $180,000,000 (2009-16) 
    6. CC Sabathia, $161,000,000 (2009-15) 
    7. Manny Ramirez, $160,000,000 (2001-08) 
    8. Troy Tulowitzki, $157,750,000 (2011-20) 
    9. Adrian Gonzalez, $154,000,000 (2012-18) 
    10. Miguel Cabrera, $152,300,000 
    (2008-15) 
    11. Carl Crawford, $142,000,000 
    (2011-17) 
    12. Todd Helton, $141,500,000 (2003-11) 
    13. Johan Santana, $137,500,000 (2008-13) 
    14. Alfonso Soriano, $136,000,000 (2007-14) 
    15. Vernon Wells, $126,000,000 (2008-14) 
    . . . Barry Zito, $126,000,000 (2007-13) 
    . . . Jayson Werth, $126,000,000 (2011-17) 
    18. Ryan Howard, $125,000,000 (2012-16) 
    19. Mike Hampton, $121,000,000 (2001-08) 
    20. Jason Giambi, $120,000,000 (2002-08) 
    . . . Matt Holliday, $120,000,000 (2010-16) 
    . . . Cliff Lee, $120,000,000 (2011-15) 
    23. Carlos Beltran, $119,000,000 (2005-11) 
    24. Ken Griffey Jr., $116,500,000 (2000-08) 
    25. Kevin Brown, $105,000,000 (1999-2005) 
    26. Carlos Lee, $100,000,000 (2007-12) 
    . . . Albert Pujols, $100,000,000 (2004-10) 
    28. Carlos Zambrano, $91,500,000 
    (2008-12) 
    29. Mike Piazza, $91,000,000 (1999-2005) 
    . . . Barry Bonds, $90,000,000 (2002-06) 
    . . . Torii Hunter, $90,000,000 (2008-12) 
    . . . Chipper Jones, $90,000,000 (2001-06) 
    . . . Scott Rolen, $90,000,000 (2003-10) 
    . . . Ichiro Suzuki, $90,000,000 (2008-12) 

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from Beantowne. Show Beantowne's posts

    Re: SI's Verducci WEEI: 'Red flags' on Crawford

    In Response to Re: SI's Verducci WEEI: 'Red flags' on Crawford:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: SI's Verducci WEEI: 'Red flags' on Crawford : With all due respect, bean, just wishing he gets more fastballs and suddenly changes his whole career portfolio does not make it happen. 1) He's batted 1st/2nd about 4,400 times in his career and elsewhere about 1,500. His career OBP is .333. His career OBP batting 2nd is .346. That's not horrible, but we can do better... much better. I'd like to see Youk in the 2 slot next year, and Pedey dropped to 3, 4, or 5, but I doubt that will happen. 2) I may have missed it, but I haven't seen you respond to the point about his numbers vs LHPs. They are horrid to say the least. He has a career .308 OBP vs LHPs and only a .684 OPS. We can and MUST do better than that. If your point was to bat him 2nd vs just RHPs, I would not think it was a bad idea, although we run into issues in late game situations when the opponents bring in a lefty to face CC. 3) Batting CC 9th makes the most sense to me (at least vs LHPs, if they have to start him to save face). He's up before Ellsbury and will "see fastballs" as much as if he bats 2nd. The two can better use their speed back-to back rather than having slow pokes between them.
    Posted by moonslav59[/QUOTE]

    Hey moon,
    You and I have debated the merits of using left/right splits and I doubt we'll ever see it the same...you still try to paint it with a broad stroke...I look at as who are the best 9 guys we have that day vs a particular pitcher. Dmac hit's leties pretty good so too does Ells, Reddick not so much...since we need three outfielders I chose to bat the guys that give me the best chance that day...

    Crawford is a lifetime .300 hitter vs Sabathia with a sizeable sample, so while his overall splits aren't great what you often overlook is what is the alternative... Before this year Pedrioa batted .077 lifetime vs Sabathia and even worse vs David Price. Gonzalez has great splits vs lefties, Sabathia owed him and so too did David Price...would you be a proponant of sitting both of them?

    I am not trying to gloss over Crawford's struggles, merely suggesting that it's incumbent on the new skipper to put the guy in a position to be successful. While I value OBP as much as any of the new aged stats...Crawford is not that type of hitter and the more he's forced to try to be a pateint hitter vs what he was in Tampa a see ball, hit ball guy, we'll continue not to utelize the skills that made him atractive to us to begin with and end of the day having him hit second is the best place for him to hit and for us to reap the benefit of his speed and the casue effect that has on Pedrioa hitting behind him...

    Ells-Crawford-Pedrioa-Gonzalez-Youk-Ortiz-Cuddyer-Salty-Scutaro...
     
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    Re: SI's Verducci WEEI: 'Red flags' on Crawford

    In Response to Re: SI's Verducci WEEI: 'Red flags' on Crawford:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: SI's Verducci WEEI: 'Red flags' on Crawford : AGon has a very high OBP and did not cost much this year (compared to most 1Bmen with his numbers). I will also say, Drew was "on the roster" and he had a nice career OBP, but I can see why we shouldn't count him. He was old and too overpaid to fit the "moneyball" image. Papi was not homegrown and had anear .400 OBP this year, not that Billy Beane coul ever have afforded a DH at his price. Aviles vs LHPs and DMac vs RHPs kinda fit the bill a little bit. franklin Morales, Erik Bedard, Matt Albers, Atchison, and Rich Hill do fit the mold a little better. You do have a good point about this year's roster. Theo did get away from the high OBP and taking many pitches type players than in previous years. Crawford does not fit the mold. Never did. Never will, no matter what "management tells him" (softy 2011) ,...LOL!
    Posted by moonslav59[/QUOTE]

    Agone 2011 may meet some James criteria but having him at low cost in 2011 also cost the organization valuable prosects and 20 million a year for the next 7.

    With regards to Drew, paying 14 million for a guy who can't stay off the DL, is also not a Jamesion approach.   A little off topic here, but when the problems in the 2011 clubhouse are discussed, Drew is the first guy I think of.  Here is a guy who has been paid 70 million by this organization and he has showed the past 2 years very little interest in staying on the active roster or doing anything more than collecting his unjustified paycheck.  That is the kind of attitude the infects a clubhouse. 
     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: SI's Verducci WEEI: 'Red flags' on Crawford

    Hey moon,
    You and I have debated the merits of using left/right splits and I doubt we'll ever see it the same...you still try to paint it with a broad stroke...I look at as who are the best 9 guys we have that day vs a particular pitcher. Dmac hit's leties pretty good so too does Ells, Reddick not so much...since we need three outfielders I chose to bat the guys that give me the best chance that day...

    I do too. I don't just look at L-R splits. I have often overlooked L-R splits for individual pitcher splits when I suggest one game line-ups. Crawford does well vs some lefties. I'm fine with him playng those games and batting somewhere other than 9th.

    I should have said "vs most lefties" not all lefties.

    Crawford is a lifetime .300 hitter vs Sabathia with a sizeable sample, so while his overall splits aren't great what you often overlook is what is the alternative... Before this year Pedrioa batted .077 lifetime vs Sabathia and even worse vs David Price. Gonzalez has great splits vs lefties, Sabathia owed him and so too did David Price...would you be a proponant of sitting both of them?

    The sample sizes are way too small to over-ride their career L-R sample size splits. I would consider moving them down in the line-up if the sampe size was big enough and the results were poor enough.

    I am not trying to gloss over Crawford's struggles, merely suggesting that it's incumbent on the new skipper to put the guy in a position to be successful. While I value OBP as much as any of the new aged stats...Crawford is not that type of hitter and the more he's forced to try to be a pateint hitter vs what he was in Tampa a see ball, hit ball guy, we'll continue not to utelize the skills that made him atractive to us to begin with and end of the day having him hit second is the best place for him to hit and for us to reap the benefit of his speed and the casue effect that has on Pedrioa hitting behind him...

    When he faces lefties, his SBs are way down as well, mostly because he doesn't get on base enough to steal.

    He has about 18 SBs per 650 PAs vs lefties and about 50 vs RHPs.

    Plus, it's not just about what is the best place for him. He may actually hit 20 points higher batting 2nd over 7th or 9th, but what about someone else? Maybe they hit 40 points higher up 2nd. It's a trade off. I think Pedey or Youk or even Scutty does better up 2nd than lower as well.

    Ells-Crawford-Pedrioa-Gonzalez-Youk-Ortiz-Cuddyer-Salty-Scutaro...
     
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    Re: SI's Verducci WEEI: 'Red flags' on Crawford

    In Response to Re: SI's Verducci WEEI: 'Red flags' on Crawford:

    Has it occurred to any of you guys that CC just can't handle the pressure of playing on a BIG STAGE in Boston. He had very little pressure in TB. In Boston the expectations are 10 fold. The media, the press and the fans are all relatively new to CC. I don't believe this was factored in when they were scouting him. Simple put, he can't handle the pressure and it is affecting all aspects of his game. So, I think that the real challenge for the new manager is to find a way to take the pressure off from CC and help him focus and concentrate on his playing and forget about all of the other distractions. 

    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: SI's Verducci WEEI: 'Red flags' on Crawford : here's a little something something for all to chew on....Carl Crawford is the 1st player since Ty Cobb to amass 200 2B, 100 3B 100 HR and have 400 SB in his career...ever hear of Ty Cobb...That's the guy we signed and that's the guy that the new manager has to get to play his game...He didn't just show up in Boston and forget how to hit...
    Posted by Beantowne[/QUOTE]
     
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    Re: SI's Verducci WEEI: 'Red flags' on Crawford

    In Response to Re: SI's Verducci WEEI: 'Red flags' on Crawford:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: SI's Verducci WEEI: 'Red flags' on Crawford : here's a little something something for all to chew on....Carl Crawford is the 1st player since Ty Cobb to amass 200 2B, 100 3B 100 HR and have 400 SB in his career...ever hear of Ty Cobb...That's the guy we signed and that's the guy that the new manager has to get to play his game...He didn't just show up in Boston and forget how to hit...
    Posted by Beantowne[/QUOTE]
     
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    Re: SI's Verducci WEEI: 'Red flags' on Crawford

    In Response to Re: SI's Verducci WEEI: 'Red flags' on Crawford:
    [QUOTE]Hey moon, You and I have debated the merits of using left/right splits and I doubt we'll ever see it the same...you still try to paint it with a broad stroke...I look at as who are the best 9 guys we have that day vs a particular pitcher. Dmac hit's leties pretty good so too does Ells, Reddick not so much...since we need three outfielders I chose to bat the guys that give me the best chance that day... I do too. I don't just look at L-R splits. I have often overlooked L-R splits for individual pitcher splits when I suggest one game line-ups. Crawford does well vs some lefties. I'm fine with him playng those games and batting somewhere other than 9th. I should have said "vs most lefties" not all lefties. Crawford is a lifetime .300 hitter vs Sabathia with a sizeable sample, so while his overall splits aren't great what you often overlook is what is the alternative... Before this year Pedrioa batted .077 lifetime vs Sabathia and even worse vs David Price. Gonzalez has great splits vs lefties, Sabathia owed him and so too did David Price...would you be a proponant of sitting both of them? The sample sizes are way too small to over-ride their career L-R sample size splits. I would consider moving them down in the line-up if the sampe size was big enough and the results were poor enough. I am not trying to gloss over Crawford's struggles, merely suggesting that it's incumbent on the new skipper to put the guy in a position to be successful. While I value OBP as much as any of the new aged stats...Crawford is not that type of hitter and the more he's forced to try to be a pateint hitter vs what he was in Tampa a see ball, hit ball guy, we'll continue not to utelize the skills that made him atractive to us to begin with and end of the day having him hit second is the best place for him to hit and for us to reap the benefit of his speed and the casue effect that has on Pedrioa hitting behind him... When he faces lefties, his SBs are way down as well, mostly because he doesn't get on base enough to steal. He has about 18 SBs per 650 PAs vs lefties and about 50 vs RHPs. Plus, it's not just about what is the best place for him. He may actually hit 20 points higher batting 2nd over 7th or 9th, but what about someone else? Maybe they hit 40 points higher up 2nd. It's a trade off. I think Pedey or Youk or even Scutty does better up 2nd than lower as well. Ells-Crawford-Pedrioa-Gonzalez-Youk- Ortiz-Cuddyer -Salty- Scutaro ...
    Posted by moonslav59[/QUOTE]

    No it actually is what's best for him, if we want to maximize his impact on the team and in doing so the team benefits...

    I also wouldn't have a problem with them "droping him or sitting him vs tougher lefties. If we have someone that can man his position that's hit's that day starter better...Which is not always the case...

    regarding the stolen base numbers curious but what are Ellsbury's stat against lefties? My guess is that it too is weighted heavily to the right. For obvious reasons...
     
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    Re: SI's Verducci WEEI: 'Red flags' on Crawford

    MS - thanks for the intelligent response.

    I think that the real point of Moneyball (the book - haven't gone to the movie yet) was not that OBP was "more important" than other stats, or that SB were "less important," but that the MARKET had not valued them CORRECTLY, and that the A's (being poor) were searching for the most incorrectly-valued stats, with their relevance a secondary matter.

    There was actually a great moment in the book (and I read it a long time ago, forgive me) when the A's come up short, and Beane says something like "well, we took the advantages of our system as far as they could go, but you really can't overcome people who really can buy all the best talent."

    In other words, even though there WAS a competitive advantage to the numerical analysis, Beane also knew quite well that it was limited, too.  That moment was what gave the book it's hook - because if their concept had simply worked to the point of giving them a huge edge, it would have lacked drama.

    Boy builds better mousetrap, catches mice, wins, game over.

    Instead, we get boy building better mousetrap, catches more mice, sees herd of cats (Yankees, Red Sox) come along and GAME OVER.  Everyone remembers Shakespeare's tragedies, man, not the comedies.  Know what I'm saying?
     
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    Re: SI's Verducci WEEI: 'Red flags' on Crawford


    I was given one of James' very early Abstracts (photocopied, manila cover) as an XMas gift one year, and in the back he printed his phone # and an invitation to call him up in Lawrence, Kansas.  So, I did.  I had several chats with him over the next few years and while I'm sure he's a very different guy now, I can assure you that he realizes that there is a "magic" (or if you prefer, statistical anomaly) part of baseball which SABRmetrics won't - and can't - predict.  They can only show it in hindsight (his reports on clutch hitting were awesome).

    The underlying ideas behind all of the statistical analyses by those pioneers were to distill truths from myths - not to perpetuate new ones.

    I would be very open to killing a bunch of beverages in a long, pointless conversation about how current-day SABRmetrics have, in a sense, caught their own tail and do perpetuate new myths, but that's for another thread, another day.
     
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    Re: SI's Verducci WEEI: 'Red flags' on Crawford

    In Response to Re: SI's Verducci WEEI: 'Red flags' on Crawford:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: SI's Verducci WEEI: 'Red flags' on Crawford : No it actually is what's best for him, if we want to maximize his impact on the team and in doing so the team benefits... I also wouldn't have a problem with them "droping him or sitting him vs tougher lefties. If we have someone that can man his position that's hit's that day starter better...Which is not always the case... regarding the stolen base numbers curious but what are Ellsbury's stat against lefties? My guess is that it too is weighted heavily to the right. For obvious reasons...
    Posted by Beantowne[/QUOTE]

    Yes, of course it is harder to steal off a lefty than a righty, but it's the huge OBP differential that is at the heart of the SB disparity.

    Career numbers based on 650 PAs:

    Crawford:
    vs RHPs: .306/.343/.468/.812  58 SB/ 11SB
    vs LHPs: .262/.308/.375/.684  22 SB/ 9 CS 

    Ellsbury:
    vs RHPs: .301/.354/.462/.816   54 SB/ 9 CS
    vs LHPs:  .299/.355/.427/.782  44 SB/16 CS

    I'm fine with playing Crawford vs the LHPs he hits well, but the sample size has to be large enough to judge by. You are right; we need to have a legitimate replacement player that is clearly better to bench Crawford, but I think you might be surprised at how many games the numbers show he should not be playing.

    I looked quickly at his individual splits vs LHPs for pitcher he had a .340+ OBP against with over 10 PAs career. Here's what I found:

    Vs 
    Buehrle  .395
    Hendrickson  .467
    S. Downs  .409 
    Tallet  .421
    Burres  .471
    Anderson .385
    Rowland-Smith  .462
    Laffey  .455
    J Lopez .583
    JC Romero  .400
    Only 10 out of 37 lefties.

    FYI: There are some righties he struggles against as well...with larger sample sizes .

    RHPs under .300 OBP: (over 20 PAs)
    VS
    B Colon  .189
    Batista  .231
    Contreras  .269
    Greinke  .292
    Arroyo  .217
    Buch     .273
    Morrow  .273
    Carmona  .286
    Hughes  .286

    Maybe he should sit vs these righties too.

    We don't know who we will have on the 2012 25 man roster, but here are the OBP numbers vs LHPs for 2011:

    Pedey  .463
    Papi      .423
    Youk     .426
    AGon     .387
    Aviles   .355
    Lowrie  .353
    Scutty  .353
    Ellsb     .348
    VTek     .346
    Redd     .341
    DMac    .333
    Drew     .259
    Salty    .252
    Craw    .249
     
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    Re: SI's Verducci WEEI: 'Red flags' on Crawford

    everyone raggs on crawford...so he had a bad year..people got to let it go...crawford is going to prove alot of people wrong next year...and all these guy's like verducci is going to come up with some other crap....
     
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    Re: SI's Verducci WEEI: 'Red flags' on Crawford

    In Response to Re: SI's Verducci WEEI: 'Red flags' on Crawford:
    [QUOTE]everyone raggs on crawford...so he had a bad year..people got to let it go...crawford is going to prove alot of people wrong next year...and all these guy's like verducci is going to come up with some other crap....
    Posted by raider3524[/QUOTE]

    I have said I think CC will revert to his career norm or even his 2010 numbers next year. My point is, it's still not worth $21M/yr and it's still not good enough to bat 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th, or even 6th in a league leading offensive line-up. Maybe he can bat 2nd or 6th vs RHPs, but that's about it.

    Career OBP: .333
    Career SLG: .441

     
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    Re: SI's Verducci WEEI: 'Red flags' on Crawford

    In Response to Re: SI's Verducci WEEI: 'Red flags' on Crawford:
    [QUOTE]Never has a player proven to be worse a fit in Sox history PRIOR to his arrival in Boston. The "red flags" as Verducci refers to aren't even the red flags that were alarming me, and that means this guy had more red flags than ones being waved at Bulls games. People obviously never watched CC play the Monster in Fenway. Maybe they should pull out the videotape of CC with the Rays....When he played shallow he looked like a fool, when he got near the warning track, he got lost, and when the ball hit the Wall he looked like a deer in headlights. Forget about his inaccurate floppy left arm, stronger than Damon's. Troy O'Leary, who was never accused of being a gifted defensive player, for my complaints about him being a fulltime LF back then, he actually had an idea about the Monster and understood positioning. Did CC ever once turn to face the Monster to receive the hop? Did he even work on it during this season? Or was he drinking a beer with Beckett? This guy was fit for venues like Anaheim and even Tankee Stadium and the short porch. He was not fit for the giant jutout of RF as a batter at Fenway, and regardless of the 81 road games that would benefit the Sox with his speed in LF, the 81 home games would offset that where he would resume being the butcher he always was when he was with Rays at games at Fenway. As a basestealer, he couldn't steal 20. As a guy who is supposed to "fit" in the Sox OBP/OPS approach, how's the under .300 getting on base percentage working out? As a lefty batter v. lefty pitching on a team that already had BEFORE he got signed--Ortiz, Salty, AGON, Lowrie, Drew, Kalish, Tek, and MVPsbury--how do you justify signing him? Did I mention that he's a black guy in Fenway media fishbowl--this isn't the Celtics. Carl Everett had problems here, Tommy Harper complained about here, and the black players that performed here and had fan support---ALL POWER HITTERS--Rice,Baylor,Mo, etc....This guy wasn't attached with red flags, he wore a RED FLAG BODY SUIT!!!! His woe is me act also not a real good fit. This guy moped, and moped, and looked sad even when the Sox won a game or two. Gee, maybe he regretted signing on for 7 years. Sure he got the 142 million that could have been spent on 2 SPs, Closer, and 3B, but he's cash rich, outlook poor. Let me tell you how I reacted the day he got signed...I called everyone and their mothers, and I was ranting and raving like the doctor in Invasion of the Body Snatchers. I ran from car to car and "warned" fans no, no, no! This guy is an alien. He is not a Red Sox!!! Actually, I was listening to music on the radio, they cut to a news segment, and when I heard it, I  dropped my head and shook it ever so slightly and then said, "Theo, you are a bleeping moron"...
    Posted by dannycater[/QUOTE]

    nice insights/observations danny
     
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    Re: SI's Verducci WEEI: 'Red flags' on Crawford

    Players do have off years.  I think Crawford will rebound in 2012 and be close to the player he was in Tampa, provided the managerial choice is a good one.  By that I mean a manager who creates a productive atmosphere on the ball club, for Crawford and the others.

    Crawford in right is intriguing.  He could work on his throwing accuracy and see what happens.
     
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    Re: SI's Verducci WEEI: 'Red flags' on Crawford

    In Response to SI's Verducci WEEI: 'Red flags' on Crawford:
    [QUOTE]WEEI: Sports Illustrated's Tom Verducci joined the Dennis & Callahan show on Thursday morning to talk about where the Red Sox went wrong this season and how they will address this offseason. Verducci said that despite the extensive scouting the Red Sox did on Carl Crawford prior to acquiring him, he does not seem to be a good fit for Fenway Park and the Boston environment. "His range really worked well in Tampa, [but it's] not a factor in Fenway Park," Verducci said. "He's pretty much a guy whose power such as it is is more pull-field power. That doesn't play at Fenway. The running game, not as much of a factor in that lineup in that ballpark. "I look at him and see a guy who technically is not a very sound hitter. He gets by a lot on athleticism as a hitter. That swing is not a textbook swing, not a textbook approach. When you start to lose some athleticism, I don't want to say he's old, but he is aging through his 30s right now, you'd like to have better fundamentals to fall back on. There are definitely some red flags there." The Red Sox have been known as a club that adapted the "Moneyball" philosophy of finding undervalued, cheaper players, but in recent years, the big-name acquisitions seem to buck the "Moneyball" trend. Verducci said he still thinks the Red Sox apply Billy Beane and Bill James' philosophy, but because of the pressures in a market like Boston, it is impossible to fully adapt "Moneyball" to every signing they make. "It's part and parcel of what's happened in Boston, it's happened in New York, where the expectations are so high that you feel like you have to have an All-Star at every position," Verducci said. "If there's a big free agent that's out there, you better go out and get the guy. There's not any room to find an undervalued, cheaper player and see if he pans out and go to a Plan B if he doesn't because the expectations are so high. The ballpark needs to be filled, the ratings need to be high on NESN." On how to figure out if a player will fit in with a club before signing him: "I'm not sure how you find that out other than I've been a big proponent of making sure that the players you bring in are extroverts. New York and Boston are the same way. When those cameras are in the clubhouse and you're 0-for-4 in April and people want you to explain yourself which you never had to do in Tampa, you have to be comfortable doing that. When you're in a six-, seven-game losing streak and the pressure is right on top of you in the clubhouse, you have to be comfortable with the lights and cameras there." On how the Red Sox scouted Crawford: "The Red Sox sat on Crawford the last couple of months last year. They put together a 40-page report on him. Talked to people in the Rays organization, players who played with him and against him. They thought they knew the guy. Maybe it's salvageable here. Maybe Carl Crawford is that new engine that needed a 20,000-mile break-in period, longer than most. Maybe he needed the whole year. I'm not sure. He just never got comfortable for me. I'm not sure it's ever going to turn around to the extent the Red Sox hoped. I think he'll be better. If you can crack that code, you're going to make yourself a lot of money. Importing guys into a completely different environment and how they'll respond, that's a tough thing to do, especially in New York and Boston." On whether the Red Sox collapse changes Terry Francona's and Theo Epstein's legacies in Boston: "No, I think those are set. I really don't think that changes it other than the fact that sort of like the way '04 is brought up, they're the patron saint of comebacks, down 3-0. When you talk about collapses and calamities in September, they'll always remember the 2011 Red Sox. You're not going to get away from that. I don't think that changes what's been built. Where that organization was and where they brought it, that doesn't change to
    Posted by 2004Idiots[/QUOTE]
    Why not post this before season started??????? Red flag or after the fact ????
     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from donrd4. Show donrd4's posts

    Re: SI's Verducci WEEI: 'Red flags' on Crawford

    In Response to SI's Verducci WEEI: 'Red flags' on Crawford:
    [QUOTE]WEEI: Sports Illustrated's Tom Verducci joined the Dennis & Callahan show on Thursday morning to talk about where the Red Sox went wrong this season and how they will address this offseason. Verducci said that despite the extensive scouting the Red Sox did on Carl Crawford prior to acquiring him, he does not seem to be a good fit for Fenway Park and the Boston environment. "His range really worked well in Tampa, [but it's] not a factor in Fenway Park," Verducci said. "He's pretty much a guy whose power such as it is is more pull-field power. That doesn't play at Fenway. The running game, not as much of a factor in that lineup in that ballpark. "I look at him and see a guy who technically is not a very sound hitter. He gets by a lot on athleticism as a hitter. That swing is not a textbook swing, not a textbook approach. When you start to lose some athleticism, I don't want to say he's old, but he is aging through his 30s right now, you'd like to have better fundamentals to fall back on. There are definitely some red flags there." The Red Sox have been known as a club that adapted the "Moneyball" philosophy of finding undervalued, cheaper players, but in recent years, the big-name acquisitions seem to buck the "Moneyball" trend. Verducci said he still thinks the Red Sox apply Billy Beane and Bill James' philosophy, but because of the pressures in a market like Boston, it is impossible to fully adapt "Moneyball" to every signing they make. "It's part and parcel of what's happened in Boston, it's happened in New York, where the expectations are so high that you feel like you have to have an All-Star at every position," Verducci said. "If there's a big free agent that's out there, you better go out and get the guy. There's not any room to find an undervalued, cheaper player and see if he pans out and go to a Plan B if he doesn't because the expectations are so high. The ballpark needs to be filled, the ratings need to be high on NESN." On how to figure out if a player will fit in with a club before signing him: "I'm not sure how you find that out other than I've been a big proponent of making sure that the players you bring in are extroverts. New York and Boston are the same way. When those cameras are in the clubhouse and you're 0-for-4 in April and people want you to explain yourself which you never had to do in Tampa, you have to be comfortable doing that. When you're in a six-, seven-game losing streak and the pressure is right on top of you in the clubhouse, you have to be comfortable with the lights and cameras there." On how the Red Sox scouted Crawford: "The Red Sox sat on Crawford the last couple of months last year. They put together a 40-page report on him. Talked to people in the Rays organization, players who played with him and against him. They thought they knew the guy. Maybe it's salvageable here. Maybe Carl Crawford is that new engine that needed a 20,000-mile break-in period, longer than most. Maybe he needed the whole year. I'm not sure. He just never got comfortable for me. I'm not sure it's ever going to turn around to the extent the Red Sox hoped. I think he'll be better. If you can crack that code, you're going to make yourself a lot of money. Importing guys into a completely different environment and how they'll respond, that's a tough thing to do, especially in New York and Boston." On whether the Red Sox collapse changes Terry Francona's and Theo Epstein's legacies in Boston: "No, I think those are set. I really don't think that changes it other than the fact that sort of like the way '04 is brought up, they're the patron saint of comebacks, down 3-0. When you talk about collapses and calamities in September, they'll always remember the 2011 Red Sox. You're not going to get away from that. I don't think that changes what's been built. Where that organization was and where they brought it, that doesn't change to
    Posted by 2004Idiots[/QUOTE]

    Are there any post still around from when sox first signed Crawford? Laughing my AZZ of at all you smart AZZES out there.
     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from PetesCall. Show PetesCall's posts

    Re: SI's Verducci WEEI: 'Red flags' on Crawford

    All things said, I still think Beantowne nailed it. Crawford needs to be back in the game mentally and physically. Going to RF and batting 2nd accomplishes both. Now we need a leftfielder and we need to decide who's available and who we should get. That Wall is still the real challenge in Left.
     
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    Re: SI's Verducci WEEI: 'Red flags' on Crawford

    In Response to Re: SI's Verducci WEEI: 'Red flags' on Crawford:
    [QUOTE]All things said, I still think Beantowne nailed it. Crawford needs to be back in the game mentally and physically. Going to RF and batting 2nd accomplishes both. Now we need a leftfielder and we need to decide who's available and who we should get. That Wall is still the real challenge in Left.
    Posted by PetesCall[/QUOTE]

    It's pretty simple...whom ever is the new skipper has to find away to get him to be the player he was his last two season is Tampa. that's in his prime .300-350-450-800 hitter with game changing speed on the basepaths and gold glove abiltiy to run balls down in the outfield. Unlock the beast and our offense will be even more explosive....
     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from notin. Show notin's posts

    Re: SI's Verducci WEEI: 'Red flags' on Crawford

    In Response to Re: SI's Verducci WEEI: 'Red flags' on Crawford:
    [QUOTE]Never has a player proven to be worse a fit in Sox history PRIOR to his arrival in Boston. The "red flags" as Verducci refers to aren't even the red flags that were alarming me, and that means this guy had more red flags than ones being waved at Bulls games. People obviously never watched CC play the Monster in Fenway. Maybe they should pull out the videotape of CC with the Rays....When he played shallow he looked like a fool, when he got near the warning track, he got lost, and when the ball hit the Wall he looked like a deer in headlights. Forget about his inaccurate floppy left arm, stronger than Damon's. Troy O'Leary, who was never accused of being a gifted defensive player, for my complaints about him being a fulltime LF back then, he actually had an idea about the Monster and understood positioning. Did CC ever once turn to face the Monster to receive the hop? Did he even work on it during this season? Or was he drinking a beer with Beckett? This guy was fit for venues like Anaheim and even Tankee Stadium and the short porch. He was not fit for the giant jutout of RF as a batter at Fenway, and regardless of the 81 road games that would benefit the Sox with his speed in LF, the 81 home games would offset that where he would resume being the butcher he always was when he was with Rays at games at Fenway. As a basestealer, he couldn't steal 20. As a guy who is supposed to "fit" in the Sox OBP/OPS approach, how's the under .300 getting on base percentage working out? As a lefty batter v. lefty pitching on a team that already had BEFORE he got signed--Ortiz, Salty, AGON, Lowrie, Drew, Kalish, Tek, and MVPsbury--how do you justify signing him? Did I mention that he's a black guy in Fenway media fishbowl--this isn't the Celtics. Carl Everett had problems here, Tommy Harper complained about here, and the black players that performed here and had fan support---ALL POWER HITTERS--Rice,Baylor,Mo, etc....This guy wasn't attached with red flags, he wore a RED FLAG BODY SUIT!!!! His woe is me act also not a real good fit. This guy moped, and moped, and looked sad even when the Sox won a game or two. Gee, maybe he regretted signing on for 7 years. Sure he got the 142 million that could have been spent on 2 SPs, Closer, and 3B, but he's cash rich, outlook poor. Let me tell you how I reacted the day he got signed...I called everyone and their mothers, and I was ranting and raving like the doctor in Invasion of the Body Snatchers. I ran from car to car and "warned" fans no, no, no! This guy is an alien. He is not a Red Sox!!! Actually, I was listening to music on the radio, they cut to a news segment, and when I heard it, I  dropped my head and shook it ever so slightly and then said, "Theo, you are a bleeping moron"...
    Posted by dannycater[/QUOTE]

    Really?  All the successful African American players who succeeded in Boston were power hitters?  Tom Gordon, Oil Can Boyd and Troy O'Leary question that statement. 

    Crawford had an awful year, but for all your self-congratulatory hindsight, you never actully mention any of the Red Flags you claim you saw the guy covered in from ehad to foot.  Yes, we all knew he was not a power-hitting left fielder, a sacred cow in Fenway.  Then again, this team plugged a Cooperstown denizen into the lineup in LF every year from 1939 to 1987 - every single year for 49 years - and won how many World Series as a result?  Winning 2 with Manny does not erase that past, and certainly does not etch it into stone as the only possible winning formula. 

    Crawford had a bad season. It happens.  It doesn't mean he is a bad fit, or that there was "no offensive plan" (which, by the way, is the stupidest criticism of them all and merely an act of clinging to buzzwords to sound more intelligent.) or that the Sox have to have a power-hitting LF in order to win.  (I know Dan Duquette insists this is the truth.  Maybe this simple approach to the game is why he has not found nother GM job in nearly 9 years.) 

    Even I hated the contract when it was signed, but unlike most, I guess I think 7 years were not all judged by one.  If Crawford hit .320 with 30HRs and 60SBs, would the entire 7 years already be justified?  Then there is no reason to go the other way, either.

    And already, the Beckett / beer scenario leaps further and further.  So now you are insinuating that Crawford was involved in that?  Do you really know the truth about the extent of what happened?  Or is this simply time to pile on accusations? 
     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: SI's Verducci WEEI: 'Red flags' on Crawford

    All things said, I still think Beantowne nailed it. Crawford needs to be back in the game mentally and physically. Going to RF and batting 2nd accomplishes both. Now we need a leftfielder and we need to decide who's available and who we should get. That Wall is still the real challenge in Left.

    RF is even more challenging, and if Cc fields like he did this year next year, Rf would be even worse.

    As for batting 2nd, particularly vs most LHPs, it makes absolutely no sense whatsoever, to put a worse hitter up second to try and light a fire under him. If you honestly think that's what he needs to get better, you have less faith in his recovery to form than I do. Also, how will Pedey and other feel whan they are moved down or demoted for a lesser player to take their place?

    The only way I see Crawford batting second vs RHPs is if Papi walks and or we trade Youk.

               '11 OBP
    Ellsbury  .376
    Pedroia  .387
    AGon      .410
    Youk       .373
    Papi       .398


    Other candidates for batting second:
    Scutaro   .358
    Aviles     .340

    2011 vs RHPs:
    AGon       .422
    Ells          .388
    Papi        .386
    Scutaro   .361
    Pedey     .355
    Youk        .349
    Aviles      .333 
    Reddick   .323
    Crawford .309

    2011 vs LHPs
    Pedey     .463
    Youk       .426
    Papi        .423
    AGon      .387
    Aviles     .355
    Lowrie    .353
    Scutaro   .353
    Ellsb        .348
    VTek       .346
    Redd       .341
    Lava        .333
    DMac       .333
    Crawford .249

    Career OBP: 
            vs RHP  vs LHPs
    Ellsb    .354     .355
    Pedey .364     .397
    AGon  .388     .347
    Youk   .379     .422
    Papi   .394      .339

    Candidtaes for batting 2nd in 2012:
            vs RHP  vs LHPs
    Craw    .343     .308
    Scutty  .337     .343
    Lowrie .293     .385
    Aviles  .307     .344

    Crawford's 2 best OBP years (v RHP/LHP):
    Crawford in 2010:  .379/.312
    Crawford in 2009:  .385/.325

    CC will never approach the OBP vs LHPs that almost everyone else on this team has. Vs RHPs, his numbers are better but still below our big 5.

    Like I said, if Papi walks or Youk gets traded, I could see Pedey being moved down to the 3 or 4 slot, and maybe CC to the 2 slot vs RHPs and a few LHPs.

    I'd still prefer Scutty 2nd, but it's close.

     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from devildavid. Show devildavid's posts

    Re: SI's Verducci WEEI: 'Red flags' on Crawford

    CC OBP v RP was .379 in 2010.

    Crawford was a bust idoicy from Theo, but he most certainly can get on base well if that is what he was told to focus on. Instead, InEpstein plugged him in the 3 slugging hole and destroyed his confidence
    .  

    You pick one tiny cherry from the tree and that is supposed to represent Carl Crawford? You are the one who always emphasizes career averages. If putting Crawford in the 3 hole destroyed his confidence, he is nothing but a fragile china doll and has no place playing in Boston. 
     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: SI's Verducci WEEI: 'Red flags' on Crawford

    I would think putting someone 3rd in this powerful line-up shows confidence, not destroys it.
     
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    Re: SI's Verducci WEEI: 'Red flags' on Crawford

    In Response to Re: SI's Verducci WEEI: 'Red flags' on Crawford:
    [QUOTE]All things said, I still think Beantowne nailed it. Crawford needs to be back in the game mentally and physically. Going to RF and batting 2nd accomplishes both. Now we need a leftfielder and we need to decide who's available and who we should get. That Wall is still the real challenge in Left. RF is even more challenging, and if Cc fields like he did this year next year, Rf would be even worse. As for batting 2nd, particularly vs most LHPs, it makes absolutely no sense whatsoever, to put a worse hitter up second to try and light a fire under him. If you honestly think that's what he needs to get better, you have less faith in his recovery to form than I do. Also, how will Pedey and other feel whan they are moved down or demoted for a lesser player to take their place? The only way I see Crawford batting second vs RHPs is if Papi walks and or we trade Youk.            '11 OBP Ellsbury  .376 Pedroia  .387 AGon      .410 Youk       .373 Papi       .398 Other candidates for batting second: Scutaro   .358 Aviles     .340 2011 vs RHPs: AGon       .422 Ells          .388 Papi        .386 Scutaro   .361 Pedey     .355 Youk        .349 Aviles      .333  Reddick   .323 Crawford .309 2011 vs LHPs Pedey     .463 Youk       .426 Papi        .423 AGon      .387 Aviles     .355 Lowrie    .353 Scutaro   .353 Ellsb        .348 VTek       .346 Redd       .341 Lava        .333 DMac       .333 Crawford .249 Career OBP:          vs RHP  vs LHPs Ellsb    .354     .355 Pedey .364     .397 AGon  .388     .347 Youk   .379     .422 Papi   .394      .339 Candidtaes for batting 2nd in 2012:         vs RHP  vs LHPs Craw    .343     .308 Scutty  .337     .343 Lowrie .293     .385 Aviles  .307     .344 Crawford's 2 best OBP years (v RHP/LHP): Crawford in 2010:  .379/.312 Crawford in 2009:  .385/.325 CC will never approach the OBP vs LHPs that almost everyone else on this team has. Vs RHPs, his numbers are better but still below our big 5. Like I said, if Papi walks or Youk gets traded, I could see Pedey being moved down to the 3 or 4 slot, and maybe CC to the 2 slot vs RHPs and a few LHPs. I'd still prefer Scutty 2nd, but it's close.
    Posted by moonslav59[/QUOTE]

    Moon,
    I'm not sure that Pedrioa would see moving to the 3 hole as a demotion, in fact it would serve to better protect him and give him more RBI chances...In effect the same dynamic that existed this year would still be in play...That's hitting with a basestealer on 1st that's capable of scoring from 1st on a double and open the hole on the rightside of the infield with Gonzo behind him...

    Frankly after last season Ellsbury now profiles as a very capable 3 hole hitter, but is far to valuable leading off...


    If you're refering to Youkilis being slighted by droping from 4th to 5th well in my mind that is something that is handled by the new skipper sitting with him and explaining that it's in "the best interest of the team". The key to dropping him is having someone hitting in the 6 ans 7 holes to protect him and "lengthen our lineup...Something our current roster doesn't have.

    CF Ells
    LF Crawford/Scutaro
    2B Pedrioa
    1B Gonzalez
    3B/DH Youk
    OF/DH Lefthanded bat (Ortiz?)
    DH/OF Righthanded bat (Cuddyer?)
    C  Salty
    SS Scutaro/Crawford

    That said, I doubt you and I will agree on this one, but if we want to lengthen the lineup, take better advatage of Crawfords speed and almost as important is place him in a spot in the lineup where he'll see his share of fastballs and help to jump start his bat (see Delmon Young with the Tigers), then the 2-hole is where he needs to hit...

    That's my story and I'm sticking to it...
     

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