Smoak and Mirrors

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from notin. Show notin's posts

    Smoak and Mirrors

    A while back, I wrote a thread called “Justin and Justin” which gave normalized splits for both Upton and Smoak over a 3 year period. I was very surprised that while Smoak did equal Upton, but neither looked remarkable as hitters. In this process, Smoak proved to be good for a . 254 / .340 BA / OBP with 20 HRs. This was a good year for Smoak and hardly ridiculous numbers for one of the biggest BABIP sluggards in all of MLB. Basically, he looked like a hidden gem with some potential to go from bottom dweller to middle of the pack. Fairly modest numbers that I figured make a Plan D at best.

     

    However, in this process I used Smoak’s normal HR/FB rate, which was 11.8%. I do that for everyone. Well, in the case of Smoak, there needs to be a clear addendum.

     

    In his home park, Smoak is, to be kind, feeble. Last year his HR/FB rate is 4.9%. Now, on the road, his HR/FB rate was a rmuch better 19.5%, and for his career it is 15.8%. That is a pretty good improvement, albeit no into elite territory But if you think about what this means. Smoak is a guy who hits flyballs about 40% of the time. His road numbers indicate nearly one of every 6 will go for a HR anywhere but Seattle. So, if he gets 600 plate appearances, then after walks and strikeouts, his career indicates he would make contact about 430 times. If 40% go for flyballs, that means he puts the ball in the air about 172 times in a full season. If 16% of these go for home runs, that brings his estimated projection total in any ballpark not named Safeco to 27. I could live with that, especially from a buy low candidate.

     

    I re-ran his projection with the elevated HR rate, and he figured to be a .265 / .350 hitter with 27 HRs (techncilly, 26.8). Ben, I know you never read my posts but go make a call about the price of The Freak from Goose Creek! The Mariners have some needs beyond outfielders who can hit. They might be amenable to a closer or a reliever, or potentially a LHRP to replace Furbush if they deal him for Morse. But give Jack Z a call today ! Forget about 1 year of Mike Morse (which would cloud Seattle’s 1B / DH situation even further, making Smoak that much more expendable).

     

    Mike Carp, on the other hand, the guy Seattle reportedly has available, has similar HR/FB rates at home and on the road. Smoak is clearly the better buy low candidate.

     

    Forget Napoli, his bad hip and his questionable defense. Seattle has a logjam of 1B/DH players, and their offseason strongly hinted they wanted options beyond Smoak, or possibly instead of Smoak altogether.

     

    I have no idea how WAR is calculated, but if Mark Teixeira can post . 251 / .332 splits with 24 HRS and be worth 3.6WAR on baseball-reference and 2.9WAR on Fangraphs, one might expect Smoak to at least meet and probably exceed those numbers, despite Teixeira’s bigger lead in defensive categories. Smoak is certainly a capable 1B with the glove.

     

    I have been touting Smoak as a hidden gem since last September, and I posted the “Justin and Justin” thread the day before he went on his mini-tear that has gotten way too many references this off-season. But, hey, every time I dig a little deeper, my confidence in him as an extremely good target for the Sox does seem to grow little by little…

     

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from mef429. Show mef429's posts

    Re: Smoak and Mirrors

    as always notin. great post. in the event that the Naps deal falls through I could definitely see him on our radar. Morse might cost too much so it might be worth it to just gun for Smoak and like you said hope he is a gem. How much longer is he under contract?

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from notin. Show notin's posts

    Re: Smoak and Mirrors

    He is still pre-arbitration

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Smoak and Mirrors

    1 pre-arb and then 3 arbs= 4 years of control.

     
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  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from notin. Show notin's posts

    Re: Smoak and Mirrors

    In response to Softlaw1's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Smoak's a bum and not worth more than farm scraps. Sign Kotchman to a minor league or near zero cost just above minimum MLB contrac and platoon him and Gomez if the hapless Mariners won't give this bum away.

    [/QUOTE]

    Kotchman for no money is break even investment at best, especially with Mark Hamilton already on board.

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from MadMc44. Show MadMc44's posts

    Re: Smoak and Mirrors

    The Nationals have a third 1 b----Tyler Moore---take a look at his first year numbers. Plays 1b and corner outfield.

    Yes I would trade one of our young starting pitchers and perhaps more.

    He has a slight negative that has to be addressed as to whether it's a real fear of flying or just touchdowns and takeoffs.

    Where do the Nats find all these guys. He may be worth very serious consideration if we are talking Smoak, Kotchman and other back up players. They will want too much for Morse for potentially one year.

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from MadMc44. Show MadMc44's posts

    Re: Smoak and Mirrors

    In response to mef429's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    as always notin. great post. in the event that the Naps deal falls through I could definitely see him on our radar. Morse might cost too much so it might be worth it to just gun for Smoak and like you said hope he is a gem. How much longer is he under contract?

    [/QUOTE]

    Check out Tyler Moore--the Nationals #3, 1 b.

    I would take Carp over Smoak.

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from notin. Show notin's posts

    Re: Smoak and Mirrors

    In response to MadMc44's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to mef429's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    as always notin. great post. in the event that the Naps deal falls through I could definitely see him on our radar. Morse might cost too much so it might be worth it to just gun for Smoak and like you said hope he is a gem. How much longer is he under contract?

    [/QUOTE]

    Check out Tyler Moore--the Nationals #3, 1 b.

    I would take Carp over Smoak.

    [/QUOTE]

    You must have missed the "Napoli, Doubront and Ennui" thread...

     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from hill55. Show hill55's posts

    Re: Smoak and Mirrors

    In response to MadMc44's comment:

    I would take Carp over Smoak.


    I saw Mike Carp in his street clothes today and he's really trimmed down from his early pudgy days with the Mariners. Most of the weight loss came through conditioning last offseason.

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from EnchiladaT. Show EnchiladaT's posts

    Re: Smoak and Mirrors

    2 years ago my Fantasy League Commish blocked a trade in which I was trading Smoak and another player (a run of the mill type) in exchange for Craig Kimbrel.

     

    The commish blocked the trade and in a furious exchange he exclaimed that Smoak was going to be some really amazing player and I was thus giving too much.

     

    I never forgot that.... and I am still waiting for Smaok to be "amazing".

     
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  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from SonicsMonksLyresVicars. Show SonicsMonksLyresVicars's posts

    Re: Smoak and Mirrors

    In response to Softlaw1's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Smoak's a bum and not worth more than farm scraps. Sign Kotchman to a minor league or near zero cost just above minimum MLB contrac and platoon him and Gomez if the hapless Mariners won't give this bum away.

    [/QUOTE]

    So you want to trade Webster and de la Rosa for him?  Because you called them "farm scraps" when we acquired them from the Dodgers.

     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from tom-uk. Show tom-uk's posts

    Re: Smoak and Mirrors

    IMO The case against trading for Smoak is strong.

    Last 3 years on road:  .707 OPS   .271 BABIP   .168 ISO   173 games

    Looking at a low BABIP and blaming bad luck is too simplistic, and in this case wrong.

    Why is his BABIP low?  

    Line drive 18% is low  (11th of 61 1B)

    Pop-ups 11% is high (17th highest of 61)

    Infield hits 2% is low (4th of 61)

    Flyball 42% in high (13th highest of 61)

    His HR/FB 12% is average (25th of 61)

     

    McQwire had a career .255 BABIP  but.....

     

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from mef429. Show mef429's posts

    Re: Smoak and Mirrors

    hey notin, is Corey Hart on your radar? he is an OF'er but had played 1B since Prince left the brewers. has 1 year left on the his deal and is a pretty good hitter overall. idk about his defensive abilities but just scanning over his offensive numbers he looks like a good cantidate. http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/hartco01-bat.shtml

    EDIT: his defensive numbers at 1B are pretty good, only 4 errors (.995) in 103 games at 1B last season

     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from slomag. Show slomag's posts

    Re: Smoak and Mirrors

    I don't see the appeal of Smoak - his road numbers aren't much better than his home numbers.  If he was free, I'd give him a shot, but as is, I'd prefer to hold onto all prospects and give Mauro Gomez a shot - he's got to be better than Smoak offensively.

    If there's a hidden gem out there, I say it's Daric Barton - he's 27 and stuck in AAA, so he should not cost much, and while he's not going to give you much power, he could be a perennial .400 OBP guy - he could be a top of the order guy, and he's tremendous defensively.

     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from notin. Show notin's posts

    Re: Smoak and Mirrors

    In response to slomag's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    I don't see the appeal of Smoak - his road numbers aren't much better than his home numbers.  If he was free, I'd give him a shot, but as is, I'd prefer to hold onto all prospects and give Mauro Gomez a shot - he's got to be better than Smoak offensively.

    If there's a hidden gem out there, I say it's Daric Barton - he's 27 and stuck in AAA, so he should not cost much, and while he's not going to give you much power, he could be a perennial .400 OBP guy - he could be a top of the order guy, and he's tremendous defensively.

    [/QUOTE]

    I like Barton too. I discussed him in the "Napoli Doubront and Ennui" thread...

     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from tom-uk. Show tom-uk's posts

    Re: Smoak and Mirrors

    WEEI reports Sox interest in Casey Kotchman and Lyle Overbay.

    OPS        Minors     Majors

    CK          .897         .716

    LO           .941        .791

    Barton     .852         .732

    Smoak    .849         .683

    http://fullcount.weei.com/sports/boston/baseball/red-sox/2013/01/12/sources-red-sox-have-shown-interest-in-casey-kotchman-lyle-overbay-although-nothing-active/

     
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  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Smoak and Mirrors

    This from the guy who wanted Nick Johnson over Beltre and the washed up Ben Sheets (pun intended).

    Now, it's Loney then Kotchman. Guthrie.

     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from Alibiike. Show Alibiike's posts

    Re: Smoak and Mirrors

    If Naps falls through, I propose letting Papi play 1B with Gomez as back-up, and use the Nap money for Jurjens or Marcum.

     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from SonicsMonksLyresVicars. Show SonicsMonksLyresVicars's posts

    Re: Smoak and Mirrors

    In response to Alibiike's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    If Naps falls through, I propose letting Papi play 1B with Gomez as back-up, and use the Nap money for Jurjens or Marcum.

    [/QUOTE]

    I see two problems with this:

    1)  Ortiz is not a good 1B, plus at his age with a dodgy Achilles tendon we'd be risking losing his bat for the whole season; and

    2)  We will have at most 4 subs:  catcher, UIF and OF are mandatory.  Do we want to use our last bench spot on a guy that can play 3B terribly (when we already have a UIF), 1B badly (when Salty - and others - can fill in for a night) and is unproven as a hitter?  I don't think so.

    Why don't more UIFs learn to play the OF?  They'd carry a lot more value.....

     
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  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Smoak and Mirrors

    Sox going with 6 SP this year are they?

    If you think Lester, Buch, Doub, Demp, and Lackey each get 32+ starts, you better think twice. It is almost guaranteed that there will be at least 25 starts of our 6th starter or lower.

     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from jasko2248. Show jasko2248's posts

    Re: Smoak and Mirrors

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Sox going with 6 SP this year are they?

    If you think Lester, Buch, Doub, Demp, and Lackey each get 32+ starts, you better think twice. It is almost guaranteed that there will be at least 25 starts of our 6th starter or lower.

    [/QUOTE]

    I don't think that was his point.  Why would Shawn Marcum sign with a team that has a set rotation already?  They will obviously add rotation depth, and they obviously already have some, but it's not going to be a guy like Marcum.

     

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