Re: Snyder a surprise and still only 26
posted at 7/5/2013 12:23 PM EDT
In response to pumpsie-green's comment:
In response to notin's comment:
Snyder is the Ciriaco of 2013.
He is making the fast first impression that will make several claim he is a hidden gem and the answer all along, but if he manages to last until 2014, his faults will show. And those who felt he was a late bloomer will suddenly deny ever having had that initial love...
“Listen to the mustn'ts, child. Listen to the don'ts. Listen to the shouldn'ts, the impossibles, the won'ts. Listen to the never haves, then listen close to me. Anything can happen, child. Anything can be.”
I am not counting on Snyder being the next Daniel Nava. However, just because we had a clunker in Ciriaco does not mean that everyone who comes up is going to be just like him. Like other players its going to take at least 200 ABs before we can begin to make a judgement about their hitting prowess or lack thereof.
You’re really just affirming my point. 200ABs?
Last year, many, many were on the Ciriaco bandwagon, proclaiming him to be the future at shortstop well beyond 2012. Have we all forgotten that already?
Ciriaco was what he was. A hacker with some defensive skills and versatility who could run well, but was really only riding out a hot streak at the MLB level, and sooner or later, it was going to catch up with him. And it did.
This year, suddenly Snyder might be “the future”, and those reserving judgment people think he needs at least 200 Abs to be properly evaluated. 200ABs? Really? When does a small sample size stop being small? I think of 200ABs as maybe 2 months work. In 200ABs, every hit is worth .005 points. So 4 or 5 weak grounders or Texas Leaguers that find dirt, and suddenly a .250 hitter is batting .275.
This is poignant especially for those who are making the same mistake they did with Ciriaco, namely ignoring his minor league career, which in this case includes an excess of THREE THOUSAND plate appearances. He certainly was not awful for that time, but that extremely large sample size should NEVER be ignored. He was a lot of “meh” for many years against worse pitching. He is not suddenly going to excel against good pitching. Even Daniel Nava did very well against minor league pitching, and the big question mark with him was whether or not he really aged out of certain levels. Just because a player makes a great first impression does not mean it is sustainable (see Francoeur, Jeff).
Look at the ultimate example of minor league mediocrity who made a great first impression - Shane Spencer. The guy EXPLODED into MLB as an over-aged rookie who suddenly morphed in Cooperstown material for ONE MONTH. In his debut month, Spencer hit 10 HRs in ONLY 73 at-bats!! And had a ludicrous 1.321 OPS!! Did he live up to that? Or did he revert to being a mediocre player for the remaining 5 years of his MLB career, a span in one season where he topped the home run total of his first month (and that time it took a lot more than 73 at-bats). The rest of his career also saw his OPS nearly cut in half, falling to a much more rational .730.
Snyder is what he is – a stopgap solution who can hopefully go on a hot streak and do some damage. But do not look for him as more than that. His ceiling is “bench bat,” and it is OK to accept him as one. After all, falling in love with him now will only lead to hating him later…