Some Interesting Numbers

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Some Interesting Numbers

    Here are the American League numbers:

    Runs scored per game (and record in those games):

    0- 75 times (0-75 .000)

    1- 103 times (8-95 .078)

    2- 148 times (32-116 .216)

    3- 183 times (71-112 .388)

    4- 153 times (85-68 .556) Median (closer to a median of 3 than of 5)

    5- 109 times (67-42 .615)

    6- 108 times (82-26 .759)

    7- 82 times (69-13 .841)

    8- 53 times (45-8  .849)

    9- 38 times (34-4  .895)

    10+ 77 times (76-1 .987)

     

    Runs Allowed:

    0- 75 times (75-0  1.000)

    1- 107 times (96-11 .897)

    2- 150 tines (120-30 .800)

    3- 187 times (115-72  .615)

    4- 141 times (65-76  .461) Median (closer to median of 3 than of 5)

    5- 122 times (45-77  .369)

    6- 106 times (28-78  .264)

    7- 78 times (12-66  .154)

    8- 57 times (9-48  .158)

    9- 34 times (3-31  .088)

    10+ 72 times (1-71 .014)

     

    The Red Sox are 3 games from the halfway point of the season, and some interesting numbers are taking form:

    Runs scored:

    0- 4 times (0-4)

    1- 5 times (0-5)

    2- 8 times (2-6)

    3- 15 times (6-9)

    4- 6 times (2-4)

    5- 8 times (5-3) Median (closer to a median of 6 than of 4)

    6- 9 times (9-0) 

    7- 7 times (6-1)

    8- 4 times (3-1)

    9- 4 times (4-0)

    10+- 8 times (8-0)

    Notes:

    1) We are 30-2 when scoring 6 or more runs- a .938 win%. The AL is at .855.

    2) We are 8-20 when scoring 1-3 runs - a .286 win%. The AL is at .256.

    3) Our offense has done better than the league norm in low and high scoring games.

    4) We are 7-7 in games scoring 4-5 runs (.500). The AL is 152-110 (.580). Our differentials from the AL norm are:

    1-3 runs: +.030

    4-5 runs: -.080**

    6+ runs: +.083

    ** If you expand it out to 3-5 runs allowed, we are 18-17 (.514), and the league is 235-235 (.500).

     

     

    Runs Allowed:

    0- 4 times (4-0)

    1- 11 times (11-0)

    2- 10 times (9-1)

    3- 12 times (7-5)

    4- 11 times (5-6) Median (closer to a median of 3 than of 5)

    5- 12 times (6-6)

    6- 6 times (2-4)

    7- 2 times (0-2)

    8- 3 times (1-2)

    9- 2 times (0-2)

    10+- 5 times (0-5)

     

    Notes: 

    1) We are 27-6 when allowing 1-3 runs (.818 win%). The AL is .745.

    2) We are 3-15 when allowing 6+ runs (.167 win %). The AL is .153.

    3) We have allowed 6+ runs only 18 times and 7+ runs only 12 times. We play our home games in a hitter's park. The other 14 AL teams average allowing 6+ runs 23.5 times and 7+ runs 16.4 times. Our staff has done better than the AL norm while in a tougher park than most.

    4) When we allow 4-5 runs we are 11-12 (.478). The AL is at .418.  Our differentials  from the AL norms are:

    1-3 runs: +.073

    4-5 runs: +.060

    6+ runs: +0.14

     

    It looks like our pitching and hitting are carrying to the best record in the AL.

     

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from royf19. Show royf19's posts

    Re: Some Interesting Numbers

    Agree -- very interesting numbers.

     

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from youkillus. Show youkillus's posts

    Re: Some Interesting Numbers

    What's interesting is the 4 run and 5 run games games, the AL scores 4 runs 13.6% of the time, this gives a very solid .556 winning percentage. The Sox have scored 4 runs just 7.6% of the time, significantly less than the league average, and we have a losing record in those games.(2-4) . The five run games generate a .615 winning percentage so 5 is clearly the sweet spot. Fortunately the Sox are held to 3 or less  runs at a 41% clip, while the league is at 45.1%, although we don't win those low scoring games as frequently .250 vs .278.

    All the other run totals above 5, we have a better wnning percentage than the rest of the league, except for 8; .750 vs .849, and we hit these 5 and above totals more than does the league.

    The difference is consistency, instead of blowing teams out in one game and then playing flat the next, the offense has remained "balanced". We went round and round about this with A-Gon's group. Yes their cumulative numbers were leading the league, but their results were not reflecting that offensive dominance.

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Some Interesting Numbers

    In response to youkillus' comment:

    What's interesting is the 4 run and 5 run games games, the AL scores 4 runs 13.6% of the time, this gives a very solid .556 winning percentage. The Sox have scored 4 runs just 7.6% of the time, significantly less than the league average, and we have a losing record in those games.(2-4) . The five run games generate a .615 winning percentage so 5 is clearly the sweet spot. Fortunately the Sox are held to 3 or less  runs at a 41% clip, while the league is at 45.1%, although we don't win those low scoring games as frequently .250 vs .278.

    All the other run totals above 5, we have a better wnning percentage than the rest of the league, except for 8; .750 vs .849, and we hit these 5 and above totals more than does the league.

    The difference is consistency, instead of blowing teams out in one game and then playing flat the next, the offense has remained "balanced". We went round and round about this with A-Gon's group. Yes their cumulative numbers were leading the league, but their results were not reflecting that offensive dominance.



    Exactly Youk, we seem to be scoring in a more balanced manner this year than in 2012 or 2011. That was one of the big knocks on our offense in recent years. 

    The fact that we are closer to a median runs scored of 6 than of 3 is pretty darn amazing.

    Median Runs scored/ Runs allowed:

    2013: 5 (2 games away from a median of 6!)/  4 (4 away from a median of 3!)

    2012: 4 (3 games away from a median of 3!)/ 5 (very close to a median of 4)

    2011: 4 (4 games away from a 5 median)/  5  ( 6 games away from 4 median)

    2010: 5 (5 games away from a 4 median)/  4  (5 away from a median of 5)

    2009: 5 (7 games away from a 4 median)/  4  (6 games away from a 5)

     

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