Sox - Better than drones on this site think.

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from andrewmitch. Show andrewmitch's posts

    Re: Sox - Better than drones on this site think.

    Buck needs to prove he can stay healthy - the burden of proof is on him

    Beckett needs to prove he can pitch effectively beyond July - the burden of proof is on him

    Lester needs to prove he can be consistent and pitch effectively in big games - the burden of proof is on him

    Aceves needs to prove he can pitch as well as a starter as he did in relief - the burden of proof is on him

    Bard needs to prove that he can be a starter - the burden of proof is on him

    Every starter has a huge question mark - that is not a good place to be in.  Burden of proof means that until they disprove my hythpothessis with overwhelming evidence, my hypothesis stands.
     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from notin. Show notin's posts

    Re: Sox - Better than drones on this site think.

    In Response to Re: Sox - Better than drones on this site think.:
    Baloney! The Sox are not as good as the team that ended 2011. They lost one of the best closers in MLB history, and replaced him with a lesser light. They start with one decent OF. No shortstop. Question marks in the rotation, and the bullpen. Meanwhile, The Tigers, Jays, Rangers, Yankees, Angels and Rays, have all improved by off season moves. Vegas doesn't rank the Sox in the top SIX for winning the World Series. This team has chosen to act like a small market team, dumpster diving, instead of biting the bullet and going over the luxury tax ceiling. Pathetic!
    Posted by GhostofTito



    2011 combined OPS from Kotchman and Damon: .786
    2011 combined OPS from Scott and Pena: .785

    Leaps and bounds...
     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from parhunter1. Show parhunter1's posts

    Re: Sox - Better than drones on this site think.

    In Response to Re: Sox - Better than drones on this site think.:
    Baloney! The Sox are not as good as the team that ended 2011. They lost one of the best closers in MLB history, and replaced him with a lesser light. They start with one decent OF. No shortstop. Question marks in the rotation, and the bullpen. Meanwhile, The Tigers, Jays, Rangers, Yankees, Angels and Rays, have all improved by off season moves. Vegas doesn't rank the Sox in the top SIX for winning the World Series. This team has chosen to act like a small market team, dumpster diving, instead of biting the bullet and going over the luxury tax ceiling. Pathetic!
    Posted by GhostofTito



    couldn't let this one pass. 

    One "of the best closers in MLB history?" You talking about the Papelbon that blew 2 games at the end of the season as the Sox fought to (and lost because of him) maintain their WC lead? That best closer? Yeah. I think Bailey could do as well or better.

    "One good outfielder" to start out 2012.  How is that any different than last year, when the Sox had one good outfielder the entire year?

    No shortstop. We'll see. I just remember how badly people wanted improvement over fragile Lowrie and no-throw Scutaro. Iglesias promises to be better than either in the field. But if it is offense you want, Aviles and Punto can equal what Scutaro and Lowrie put up, without any decline in defense, with the exception of Scutaro's blistering hot September. And how did that help the team?

    And exactly what has Tampa and Toronto done that is anything more than plugging holes that departures left? Even the Yankees may not have done much to replace the quality of starts they were fortunate enough to get out of Garcia and Colon. Colon is gone and Garcia is not really likely to continue to pitch as well as he did in 2011, no more than it is likely that Buchholz comes back to pitch as well as he did in 2010, and with no health problems. So Kuroda and Pineda may not be much more than replacing lost productivity either. Same for Detroit...for 2012 all Fielder does is replace V-Mart's lost production. That is all most teams do in the off-season, Texas, LAA excepted.
     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from notin. Show notin's posts

    Re: Sox - Better than drones on this site think.

    In Response to Re: Sox - Better than drones on this site think.:
    In Response to Re: Sox - Better than drones on this site think. : couldn't let this one pass.  One "of the best closers in MLB history?" You talking about the Papelbon that blew 2 games at the end of the season as the Sox fought to (and lost because of him) maintain their WC lead? That best closer? Yeah. I think Bailey could do as well or better. "One good outfielder" to start out 2012.  How is that any different than last year, when the Sox had one good outfielder the entire year? No shortstop. We'll see. I just remember how badly people wanted improvement over fragile Lowrie and no-throw Scutaro. Iglesias promises to be better than either in the field. But if it is offense you want, Aviles and Punto can equal what Scutaro and Lowrie put up, without any decline in defense, with the exception of Scutaro's blistering hot September. And how did that help the team? And exactly what has Tampa and Toronto done that is anything more than plugging holes that departures left? Even the Yankees may not have done much to replace the quality of starts they were fortunate enough to get out of Garcia and Colon. Colon is gone and Garcia is not really likely to continue to pitch as well as he did in 2011, no more than it is likely that Buchholz comes back to pitch as well as he did in 2010, and with no health problems. So Kuroda and Pineda may not be much more than replacing lost productivity either. Same for Detroit...for 2012 all Fielder does is replace V-Mart's lost production. That is all most teams do in the off-season, Texas, LAA excepted.
    Posted by parhunter1



    A slight understatement.

    Fielder will out produce 2 VMarts, even in Detroit.

    However, that team will still have a lineup featuring Ryan Raburn, Brandon Inge, and Dr. Jekyll himself, Alex Avila.

    The Tigers should walk through the AL Central with little challenge unless Cleveland gets rebound years from Choo and Jimenez...
     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from jidgef. Show jidgef's posts

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    In Response to Re: Sox - Better than drones on this site think.:
    In Response to Re: Sox - Better than drones on this site think. : A slight understatement. Fielder will out produce 2 VMarts, even in Detroit. However, that team will still have a lineup featuring Ryan Raburn, Brandon Inge, and Dr. Jekyll himself, Alex Avila. The Tigers should walk through the AL Central with little challenge unless Cleveland gets rebound years from Choo and Jimenez...
    Posted by notin

    Notin, VMart last year knocked in over 100 runs and had an OPS of around .850. Doubt very much that Fielder can double that production.
     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from notin. Show notin's posts

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    In Response to Re: Sox - Better than drones on this site think.:
    Crawford is an MVP Capable? Perhaps we need to agree on what capable means?  Given he was one of the worst players in the league last year, does that mean that 90% of the players in the majors are "capable" of an MVP?
    Posted by andrewmitch


    Carl Crawford is one season removed from a year where he hit .305 / .356 / .495 with 19HRs, 90RBI, 47 SBs and won a Gold Glove, a Silver Slugger and was 7th in MVP balloting and was valued at 7.6WAR, which tied him with Evan Longoria for the second highest total in MLB, behind only AL MVP Josh Hamilton, and ahead of NL MVP Joey Votto and future HOF Albert Pujols.

    And he did that without enjoying Hamilton's ludicrous home/road splits.  (Hamilton's 2010 road OPS was some 300 points lower than his home OPS; Crawford's home and road OPS differed by 11 points.)

    One season removed.  So, yes, I would absolutely say he is capable...
     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from notin. Show notin's posts

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    In Response to Re: Sox - Better than drones on this site think.:
    In Response to Re: Sox - Better than drones on this site think. : Notin, VMart last year knocked in over 100 runs and had an OPS of around .850. Doubt very much that Fielder can double that production.
    Posted by jidgef


    OK, so maybe the second VMart won't be very good.  He'll be the 2008 Vmart.

    Fielder is a much more dangerous hitter than Martinez, however, and I do think he will top Victor's 2011 numbers quite handily. 

    Interestingly, VMart's OPS+ was 132 last year, while Fielder's was 164.  So he did double him off the norm there. 
     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from Joebreidey. Show Joebreidey's posts

    Re: Sox - Better than drones on this site think.

    The RS run differential was actually very good.  On a scale of +/-, the players that should do better or worse than last year, or better than their replacement if injured-

    Youk +1
    CC +1
    Ells -1
    Ross/Sweeney +1
    Buchholz +2
    Bard +2
    SP TBD +1
    Bailey -1

    We'll win 96, imho.
     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from titletownfan. Show titletownfan's posts

    Re: Sox - Better than drones on this site think.

    They'll be fine provided they sign Edwin Jackson/Roy Oswalt. 
     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from hill55. Show hill55's posts

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    The Red Sox, as usual, have some impressive individual parts.

    We'll see whether the individuals come together more effectively than the Sox have the past three seasons.
     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Sox - Better than drones on this site think.

    Papelbon might be worth $12.5M this year, but not for 4 years. It hurts that he's gone, but it was the right decision. No, I don't think Bailey is better, and he may have health issues as well, but it's not a huge step down. The addition of Melancon will help lessen the loss of Paps and may actually tilt the balance to a plus (Bailey + Melancon > Papelbon). Combined, they should have twice as many innings as Paps. Getting Bailey and Melancon without really losing any kep pieces or top prospects was brilliance on Ben's behalf.

    The other options?
    Bell  $27M/3? I don't think so.
    Valverde $9M? I don't think so.
    R. Madson $8.5M? I don't think so.
    Frank Francisco $12M/2? I don't think so.
    Broxton, Capps, Rauch, Farnsworth ($3.3 to 4.75M)I don't think so. 

    It's hard to judge this overall pen, until we know about where Bard and Aceves will be. That depends on us getting another solid starter or 2 or none. I'd love to see this pen in 2012:
    Closer: Bailey
    Set-up: Bard
    Set-up: Melancon
    Mid-relief: Aceves
    Mid-relief: Doubront
    RP: Morales
    RP: Albers
    Others: Tazawa, Jenks, Miller, Bowden, Atchison, R Hill, and more.

    Our top 3 relievers were fantastic last year, but let's look closer at the whole pen last year with 517 IP overall. 
    (2012 Projections in red, if pen above)
    IP  2011 RP
    93 Aceves    110 Aceves  
    73 Bard           80 Bard 
    65 Albers        75 Melancon
    64 Paps           55 Bailey
    (Subtotal: 295 IP in 2011 to 320 in 2012) +25 IP 2012
    49 Wheeler     70 Doubront
    32 Morales      60 Morales
    30 Atchison    60  Albers (Subtotal: 510 IP)
    20 Bowden       ?  Bowden
    17 Wakefield    ? Atchison
    16 Jenks            ? Jenks
    10 Doubront      ? Miller
    8   Okajima        ? Tazawa
    8   R Williams     ? R Hill
    8   R Hill
    7   A Miller
    4   Hottovy
    3   Weiland
    3   Tazawa
    2   T Miller
    2   D Reyes
    1   DMac
    1   Dice-K

    Someone will get hurt. Someone will underachieve. But, I think you catch my drift. If we can get 2 solid starters other than Bard and Aceves to fill the 4 and 5 slots, our pen can easily be an improved pen over 2011. 

    Our biggest positional offensive weaknesses of 2011 were ...
    RF .233/.299/.353/.652
    LF .258/.304/.419/.723
    Replacing Drew, Reddick and others with Cody Ross & Ryan Sweeney gives us the potential for up to a 200 point gain in RF OPS this year. We should easily gain 100-150 points.

    The next lowest offensive positions are typically MLB weak offensive positions.
    SS .279/.330/.401/.730
    C   .229/.291/.446/.737  
    We lost Scutaro, who was a very good offensive SS, but still have Aviles and added Punto to take Lowrie's place. Iggy remains the wildcard at SS, and if he plays a significant amount of time at SS, we will certainly see a big drop in SS OPS, but I seriously doubt it will overshadow the gains in RF, especially if we PH for Iggy late in games and play Aviles a bit on Iggy rest days.
    Salty is now the age VTek was when he became the regular Sox SS. He could improve. If Bobby V goes with a L-R platoon, instead of Tito's silly personal caddy set-up, having Shoppach get most of the PAs vs LHPs will help Salty's numbers get better, and get the best from Shopp as well. Last year Salty had this:
    vs RHPs: (243 PAs) .247/.304/.481/.786
    vs LHPs: (115 PAs) .209/.252/.383/.635
    VTek had this:
    vs RHPs: (169 PAs) .200/.277/.433/.710
    vs LHPs:   (81 PAs)  .264/.346/.403/.748
    Shoppach does very well vs LHPs:
    2011: .241/.344/.444/.788
    2010: .261/.375/.455/.830
    If Bobby V starts Salty vs almost all RHPs and Shoppach vs almost all LHPs, it will help us in two major ways:
    1) Offensively: Even if Lava gets no PAs as a catcher with the Sox in 2012, I think we can improve our catcher OPS by splitting the PAs by lefty/righty:
    600 total PAs divided this way:
    Salty: Instead of being 2:1 vs RHPs and LHPs, make it about 3:1
    360 PAs vs RHPs
    120 PAs vs LHPs
    Instead of VTek facing RHPs 2:1 over LHPs, have Shopp face LHPs 2:1
    80 PAs vs LHPs
    40 PAs vs RHPs
    This alone should raise our catcher OPS about 50 points, even if Salty doesn't improve.
    2) Salty and Shopp will not be personal caddies and not get a chance to learn certain pitchers on the staff like last year. Salty needs to catch Beckett.

    Next, I won't get into the chances of improvements at 3B if Youk stays healthy, because chances are sombody somewhere else will get hurt in 2012, but there is at least a hope of a relatively healthy year accross the board.

    Starting Pitching:
    Just Buch getting 27-32 starts could be huge.
    Replacing Lackey, Wake, Miller, Bedard, and Weiland could easily be addition by subtraction even if we end up with any two of these guys:
    Dice-K (June/July)
    Doubront 
    (Tazawa from the pen?)
    Silva
    Cook
    Padilla
    Miller
    Mortensen
    A Wilson
    Duckworth
    Haeger
    Nobody jumps out at me here, but there is certainly potential that 1 or two of these guys could be this year's Garcia of Colon.

    If we can get 1 or 2 of these guys, we are looking very good in my opinion:
    Floyd
    Garza
    Jackson
    Oswalt
    W Rodriguez
    (Others?)

    To me, this team is pulling together pretty well. The Papi arb looms, and could end up being the biggest offseason mistake, but not having Papi in the 2012 line-up is not an encouraging idea. 

    Guys like Beltran ($26/2) and Cuddyer ($31.5/3) were extreme overpays with no guarantees.

    I like what Ben has done so far, let's see what unfolds over the next few days.


     
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  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Sox - Better than drones on this site think.

    In Response to Re: Sox - Better than drones on this site think.:
    In Response to Re: Sox - Better than drones on this site think. : Stop using facts and stats.....just make bold comments without regard to facts! lol
    Posted by thepeskypole6

    That would be like asking me to be more like softy.

    Sorry, no can do.

     
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  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from susan250. Show susan250's posts

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    In Response to Re: Sox - Better than drones on this site think.:
    sorry but the sox arent better than they were last year even....scutaro & paps replacements wont be as good.....Papi had a great year last year...can it happen it again??? our pitching is so shaky it is scary given the injuries and fatheads that comprise it....oswalt would be a great boost but hey, at least we have cody ross!  crawford is hurt, and can we really expect Papi to repeat last years stats at his advanced age? i think we will do about as well as last year...90 wins... but the most important part of the coming season is what our AL rivals have to done to get better...how do we compare to the yankee moves? the marquee signings fielder, etc???  I doubt we are even as good as last year..and I know the other teams are considerably stronger... now go wave those pom poms somewhere else...
    Posted by georom4


    I agree with you and also believe that the Red Sox will struggle to try to make the playoffs.   I am still concerned about the pitching staff.   I still believe that the success of our pitchers will be a big factor.  Many other teams have also improved their rosters and we really haven't.  I will still remain optimstic, but am not really expecting a great season. 
     
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