Re: Sox close to landing Napoli
posted at 12/3/2012 6:25 PM EST
In response to Softlaw1's comment:
Napoli was my #2 1st base option, @ Base 10 x 2. This is Base 13 x 3. The base isn't a value big overpay (33%),. but the 3rd year makes it a big value overpay. However, unlike Crawford, Napoli is a fit. In addition, his age is such that the 3rd year is not in the absurd category, though it's still a value overpay.
Napoli 31 13 M (Profile 2nd rate 1st baseman but added value as backup catcher/flexibility)
Napoli 32 13M (Profile 2nd rate 1st baseman but added value as backup catcher/flexibility)
Napoli 33 13M (Profile DH/platoon 1B/ emergency backup catcher)
Because Ortiz's contract goes off the books in Napoli year 3, the value overpay on this deal is mitigated to a certain extent. Napoli would then become part of a platoon approach to DH and provide bench backup at 1st and emergency catcher.
Make no mistake, Napoli is in decline due to age and mileage, but he is a fit for Fenway and the Red Sox roster construction 3 years out.
Bottom line, I would not have made a 39M guaranteed contract offer to Napoli. I would have moved off my value of 2 @ base 10 and made my final offer @ 2 @ base 13.75 with a team 3rd year option at 10M/buyout of 2.5M. I would included in the offer a provision that allows the player to become a FA after the first year by simply opting out at the completion of the 2013 Red Sox season. This allows the player to "cash in" on a big year in Fenway, and would be appropriate given the poor season the player has just completed in 2012 that lead to him becoming Texas dumspter trash that expired with no extension. The guarantee would be 30M, which is about a 33% value overpay for a 2nd rate support role 31 year old profile like Napoli.
At the end of the day, this is a deal that Cherry has a basis to defend on the fit scale, if not the value scale.
So far, the FA moves have been reasonable, even though these players could have been acquired on more team favorable terms (with the likely exception of Napoli).
Gomes (Value Grade C Fit Grade B overall Contract Grade C+)
D. Ross (Value Grade D+ Fit Grade B+ overall Contract Grade C+)
Napoli (Value Grade D+ Fit Grade B overall Contract Grade C)
As long as Cherry avoids paying 1st rate contracts to 2nd and 3rd rate starting pitchers and OF'ers, he will have his first competent GM season.
What he has done so far is acquire players who are fits for the contract terms. That's a step in the right direction.
He needs to stay away from the flyin' Hawaii market bidding. He needs to close the trade for J. Upton, which includes getting rid of Ellsbury's 10M arbitration and using him and his draft compensation in the trade asset pool, and making one year 1.5M MLB contract offer to R. Johnson and minor league contract offers to Sizemore and Pods, put Kalish in that CF bench depth chart, and place hold CF and platoon CF and RF for 2013.
Of course you wouldnt... Cheapskate. Get over it its a three Year deal. Not exacttly gonna cripple the sox by over paying a tad.