Sox collapse without Jacoby Ellsbury

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from maxbialystock. Show maxbialystock's posts

    Sox collapse without Jacoby Ellsbury

    Obviously, that ain't happened.  In fact, the Sox have played better without him than with him, but of course the sample size is pretty small.  You gotta wonder though, if the WAR (wins above replacement) people know what they are doing. 

    Ellsbury, Napoli, Drew, and Salty are the four key free agents on the current Sox.  Most of us think the Sox will make a qualifying offer to Ellsbury, maybe even a good one, but not be able to keep him. 

    On the other hand, I have not been all that impressed with Bradley--again, a small sample--and think that helps Ellsbury's case a little.  Last night there was no hesitation in pinch-hitting for Bradley in a close game.  In other games, Victorino has moved to CF and RF/LF have been filled by Nava, Gomes, Carp, as appropriate. 

    In 2007 Ellsbury had exactly the same opportunities Bradley has had this year, but Ellsbury made the most of them and ended up in the  postseason and the World Series despite Crisp being the centerfielder.  Most of us don't think Bradley will get to the postseason, especially not if Ellsbury is back.  I personally would rather have Berry because of his pinch-running. 

    Still, it's a mixed bag.  The Sox obviously can win without Ellsbury, but for how long?  And will Bradley be an adequate replacement in 2014--not as good, but good enough? 

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from Sheriff-Rojas. Show Sheriff-Rojas's posts

    Re: Sox collapse without Jacoby Ellsbury

    In response to maxbialystock's comment:

    Obviously, that ain't happened.  In fact, the Sox have played better without him than with him, but of course the sample size is pretty small.  You gotta wonder though, if the WAR (wins above replacement) people know what they are doing. 

    Ellsbury, Napoli, Drew, and Salty are the four key free agents on the current Sox.  Most of us think the Sox will make a qualifying offer to Ellsbury, maybe even a good one, but not be able to keep him. 

    On the other hand, I have not been all that impressed with Bradley--again, a small sample--and think that helps Ellsbury's case a little.  Last night there was no hesitation in pinch-hitting for Bradley in a close game.  In other games, Victorino has moved to CF and RF/LF have been filled by Nava, Gomes, Carp, as appropriate. 

    In 2007 Ellsbury had exactly the same opportunities Bradley has had this year, but Ellsbury made the most of them and ended up in the  postseason and the World Series despite Crisp being the centerfielder.  Most of us don't think Bradley will get to the postseason, especially not if Ellsbury is back.  I personally would rather have Berry because of his pinch-running. 

    Still, it's a mixed bag.  The Sox obviously can win without Ellsbury, but for how long?  And will Bradley be an adequate replacement in 2014--not as good, but good enough? 



    Team success doesn't hinge on Bradley's success either, although it would certainly help.  There are other outfielders out there that could fill some of the void if Bradley doesn't pan out.  Acquiring a corner outfielder could allow Victorino to move to center if need be.  Finding a leadoff replacement might be more challenging.  

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from ctredsoxfanhugh. Show ctredsoxfanhugh's posts

    Re: Sox collapse without Jacoby Ellsbury

    The team also collapses if they commit 20/yr for 5-6 years and he can't stay on the field.  I love Ellsbury and would like to have him back, but it shouldn't be at all costs. 

     
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  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Sox collapse without Jacoby Ellsbury

    Bradley's sample size is not nearly large enough to make any definitive negative determination about his MLB future just yet.

    We will not go into 2014 with any FT job handed to JBJ. If Ellsbury walks, we will sign a RF'er and have Victorino to play CF. JBJ may earn a way into the line-up or move up due to injury, but I seriously doubt Ben has penciled him as the starting CF'er for 2014, especially since he is probably counting on one rookie (Bogey) to win a FT job already.

     

     

    Sox4ever.

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from raider3524. Show raider3524's posts

    Re: Sox collapse without Jacoby Ellsbury

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    Bradley's sample size is not nearly large enough to make any definitive negative determination about his MLB future just yet.

    We will not go into 2014 with any FT job handed to JBJ. If Ellsbury walks, we will sign a RF'er and have Victorino to play CF. JBJ may earn a way into the line-up or move up due to injury, but I seriously doubt Ben has penciled him as the starting CF'er for 2014, especially since he is probably counting on one rookie (Bogey) to win a FT job already.

     

     

    Sox4ever.



    exactly.....

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from Sheriff-Rojas. Show Sheriff-Rojas's posts

    Re: Sox collapse without Jacoby Ellsbury

    In response to raider3524's comment:

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    Bradley's sample size is not nearly large enough to make any definitive negative determination about his MLB future just yet.

    We will not go into 2014 with any FT job handed to JBJ. If Ellsbury walks, we will sign a RF'er and have Victorino to play CF. JBJ may earn a way into the line-up or move up due to injury, but I seriously doubt Ben has penciled him as the starting CF'er for 2014, especially since he is probably counting on one rookie (Bogey) to win a FT job already.

     

     

    Sox4ever.

     



    exactly.....

     



    I was just going to respond to Moonie with the exact same one word post.

    Exactly. 

    Mine differs in that I use a capital E and a period rather than an ellipsis.

     

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Sox collapse without Jacoby Ellsbury

    Victorino and Bradley are all that is needed, with Choo a much better value than Ellsbury with his career .789 OPS.

    Gotta love Choo's .424 OBP this year. To me, that beats out a .355 OBP and 50+ SBs. However, one big concern:

    Choo vs RHPs: 1.028 OPS

    Choo vs LHPs: .597 OPS, although he still has a .350 OBP vs lefties.

    Career:

    vs RHPs: .934 (.411 OBP)

    vs LHPs: .678 (.340 OBP)

     

    I think Ben will look more to Hunter Pence:

    Career:

    vs RHPs  .795 (.336 OBP)

    vs LHPs  .872 (.347 OBP)

    (It's .745 to 1.025 this year)

     

    Replacing Ellsbury with a better hitter vs LHPs would balance this team better than Choo.

    We may also use Nava in RF more than I'd like to, if we end up spending at 1B, C and non OF slots. Gomes and Carp can play some more in LF.

     

    Sox4ever

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from raider3524. Show raider3524's posts

    Re: Sox collapse without Jacoby Ellsbury

    In response to Sheriff-Rojas' comment:

    In response to raider3524's comment:

     

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

     

     

    Bradley's sample size is not nearly large enough to make any definitive negative determination about his MLB future just yet.

    We will not go into 2014 with any FT job handed to JBJ. If Ellsbury walks, we will sign a RF'er and have Victorino to play CF. JBJ may earn a way into the line-up or move up due to injury, but I seriously doubt Ben has penciled him as the starting CF'er for 2014, especially since he is probably counting on one rookie (Bogey) to win a FT job already.

     

     

    Sox4ever.

     

     



    exactly.....

     

     

     



    I was just going to respond to Moonie with the exactsame one word post.

     

    Exactly. 

    Mine differs in that I use a capital E and a period rather than an ellipsis.

     



    lol...

     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from raider3524. Show raider3524's posts

    Re: Sox collapse without Jacoby Ellsbury

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    Victorino and Bradley are all that is needed, with Choo a much better value than Ellsbury with his career .789 OPS.

    Gotta love Choo's .424 OBP this year. To me, that beats out a .355 OBP and 50+ SBs. However, one big concern:

    Choo vs RHPs: 1.028 OPS

    Choo vs LHPs: .597 OPS, although he still has a .350 OBP vs lefties.

    Career:

    vs RHPs: .934 (.411 OBP)

    vs LHPs: .678 (.340 OBP)

     

    I think Ben will look more to Hunter Pence:

    Career:

    vs RHPs  .795 (.336 OBP)

    vs LHPs  .872 (.347 OBP)

    (It's .745 to 1.025 this year)

     

    Replacing Ellsbury with a better hitter vs LHPs would balance this team better than Choo.

    We may also use Nava in RF more than I'd like to, if we end up spending at 1B, C and non OF slots. Gomes and Carp can play some more in LF.

     

    Sox4ever



    that's the two players i was thinking of...pence next to victorino would be nice....

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from Sheriff-Rojas. Show Sheriff-Rojas's posts

    Re: Sox collapse without Jacoby Ellsbury

    In response to raider3524's comment:

    In response to Sheriff-Rojas' comment:

     

    In response to raider3524's comment:

     

     

     

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

     

     

     

     

    Bradley's sample size is not nearly large enough to make any definitive negative determination about his MLB future just yet.

    We will not go into 2014 with any FT job handed to JBJ. If Ellsbury walks, we will sign a RF'er and have Victorino to play CF. JBJ may earn a way into the line-up or move up due to injury, but I seriously doubt Ben has penciled him as the starting CF'er for 2014, especially since he is probably counting on one rookie (Bogey) to win a FT job already.

     

     

    Sox4ever.

     

     

     



    exactly.....

     

     

     

     

     



    I was just going to respond to Moonie with the exactsame one word post.

     

     

    Exactly. 

    Mine differs in that I use a capital E and a period rather than an ellipsis.

     

     



    lol...

     



    That's LOL to me, ellipsis man.  

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from raider3524. Show raider3524's posts

    Re: Sox collapse without Jacoby Ellsbury

    In response to Sheriff-Rojas' comment:

    In response to raider3524's comment:

     

    In response to Sheriff-Rojas' comment:

     

     

     

    In response to raider3524's comment:

     

     

     

     

     

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

    Bradley's sample size is not nearly large enough to make any definitive negative determination about his MLB future just yet.

    We will not go into 2014 with any FT job handed to JBJ. If Ellsbury walks, we will sign a RF'er and have Victorino to play CF. JBJ may earn a way into the line-up or move up due to injury, but I seriously doubt Ben has penciled him as the starting CF'er for 2014, especially since he is probably counting on one rookie (Bogey) to win a FT job already.

     

     

    Sox4ever.

     

     

     

     



    exactly.....

     

     

     

     

     

     

     



    I was just going to respond to Moonie with the exactsame one word post.

     

     

     

    Exactly. 

    Mine differs in that I use a capital E and a period rather than an ellipsis.

     

     

     



    lol...

     

     

     



    That's LOL to me, ellipsis man.  

     



    you got it....damn capital.

     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Sox collapse without Jacoby Ellsbury

    Exactly !

    Sox4ever

     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from raider3524. Show raider3524's posts

    Re: Sox collapse without Jacoby Ellsbury

    what you think of this song...i think it's badazz..oldies.....http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_RXNr3EHd2Q

     

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oKgkDxnG9Z8

     

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5anLPw0Efmo

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from raider3524. Show raider3524's posts

    Re: Sox collapse without Jacoby Ellsbury

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    Exactly !

    Sox4ever



    Yes

     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from lasitter. Show lasitter's posts

    Re: Sox collapse without Jacoby Ellsbury

    Shane's speed in right has been a hugh defensive plus for the Sox. If he moves to center, wouldn't a RH bat with a plus glove / speed  be in order? Are there options out there for about $10m?

    Where do Brentz, Margot, Hassan, and De La Cruz figure in our OF plans?

    I like the idea of taking some savings at a positon here and there and then making a big splash on a young, durable, proven commodity. I'd much prefer consistent performers than streaky players.

    Installing a good glove at 1st with more consistent hitting and moderate power, relatively even LHP/RHP splits, and a bit more speed would be an improvement over Naps. He's too slow, strikes out too much and is too streaky. He's got a great attitude, and the ball goes a mile when he hits it, but we need more tools from position players.

    Salty certainly gets the nod for "most improved" (along with Nava), but we have so much catching depth in the organization that I think we'd be stupid not to use it.

    The $$$ saved from Salty, Ells, Naps, etc., could be used for making some big splashes. Would you offer Salty 3/27 and trade some catchers? Do you like to "keep some powder dry" or already know some FAs you'd like to blow it all on.

    All questions for next year ...

     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from MadMc1944. Show MadMc1944's posts

    Re: Sox collapse without Jacoby Ellsbury

     

    We would be a better team going forward with Ells but there is something I really like seeing JBJ in CF. He's a very confident CF'der. I think when he get's permission to be the lead-off guy we will see the package develop. I realize he's like the lead-off guy, in some respects, batting 9 th---but it's not like it's your team until you lead-off.

    He had a couple of balls drop in front of him but, as someone astutely mentioned, it takes some games to get use to the depth perception of maj. league stadiums. The kid has hit two ML homeruns and driven in some runs. His BA is below the Mendoza Line but if I can suggest--it's tough when you are below that line to get above it. I think of Lavarnway from last season compared to this season--I think he's .280 with a limited sample size and WMB was about .191 when he was sent to AAA now he's in the .240 range and getting the chance to be in the line-up every day.

    I'm not worried about JBJ or Ells re. the 2014 season---are any of you really that concerned? As has been mentioned --you have Vic and he's every bit as good as Ells in CF and at the plate he's every bit as good with decent power. Ells is Ells on the bases; is that worth $20 M??? I say NO.

    Save the money on Ells and you have a free Ue and Workman and Britton and two excellent players in Vic and JBJ. 

     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from ADG. Show ADG's posts

    Re: Sox collapse without Jacoby Ellsbury

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    Victorino and Bradley are all that is needed, with Choo a much better value than Ellsbury with his career .789 OPS.

    Gotta love Choo's .424 OBP this year. To me, that beats out a .355 OBP and 50+ SBs. However, one big concern:

    Choo vs RHPs: 1.028 OPS

    Choo vs LHPs: .597 OPS, although he still has a .350 OBP vs lefties.

    Career:

    vs RHPs: .934 (.411 OBP)

    vs LHPs: .678 (.340 OBP)

     

    I think Ben will look more to Hunter Pence:

    Career:

    vs RHPs  .795 (.336 OBP)

    vs LHPs  .872 (.347 OBP)

    (It's .745 to 1.025 this year)

     

    Replacing Ellsbury with a better hitter vs LHPs would balance this team better than Choo.

    We may also use Nava in RF more than I'd like to, if we end up spending at 1B, C and non OF slots. Gomes and Carp can play some more in LF.

     

    Sox4ever



    Who's your leadoff hitter?

     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from crazyworldoftroybrown. Show crazyworldoftroybrown's posts

    Re: Sox collapse without Jacoby Ellsbury

    About a Month ago I read that Pence loves SF. Today I just read the Giants are going to try to extend him.

    Wouldn't surprise me if Giants go after Ellsbury. Move Pagan to Left. Need speed in that Park in Centerfield.

     
  20. This post has been removed.

     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from 37stories. Show 37stories's posts

    Re: Sox collapse without Jacoby Ellsbury

    In response to maxbialystock's comment:

    Obviously, that ain't happened.  In fact, the Sox have played better without him than with him, but of course the sample size is pretty small.  You gotta wonder though, if the WAR (wins above replacement) people know what they are doing. 

    Ellsbury, Napoli, Drew, and Salty are the four key free agents on the current Sox.  Most of us think the Sox will make a qualifying offer to Ellsbury, maybe even a good one, but not be able to keep him. 

    On the other hand, I have not been all that impressed with Bradley--again, a small sample--and think that helps Ellsbury's case a little.  Last night there was no hesitation in pinch-hitting for Bradley in a close game.  In other games, Victorino has moved to CF and RF/LF have been filled by Nava, Gomes, Carp, as appropriate. 

    In 2007 Ellsbury had exactly the same opportunities Bradley has had this year, but Ellsbury made the most of them and ended up in the  postseason and the World Series despite Crisp being the centerfielder.  Most of us don't think Bradley will get to the postseason, especially not if Ellsbury is back.  I personally would rather have Berry because of his pinch-running. 

    Still, it's a mixed bag.  The Sox obviously can win without Ellsbury, but for how long?  And will Bradley be an adequate replacement in 2014--not as good, but good enough? 



    It has only been a couple games. obviously the Red sox are better with Ells than with Bradley. It goes without saying.

     
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  23. This post has been removed.

     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from mef429. Show mef429's posts

    Re: Sox collapse without Jacoby Ellsbury

    In response to RedSoxFireman's comment:

    Victorino has played so well in the field and at the plate that he's really become the Ellsbury OF replacement that management had in mind when they gave him the 3 year deal. With Victorino and Bradley and Gomes and Nava, little point in spending a fortune to bring Ellsbury back. Choo or Pence are much better fits than Ellsbury, with what's arleady in place.




    welcome back softlaw. we await your mea culpa in regards to cherrington...

     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from notin. Show notin's posts

    Re: Sox collapse without Jacoby Ellsbury

    In response to RedSoxFireman's comment:

    Victorino and Bradley are all that is needed, with Choo a much better value than Ellsbury with his career .789 OPS.

    Salty should get a two year market offer.

    Napoli should get a QO. 1st base free agent class is loaded and will result in a cheaper short term contract for 1st base/DH guy.

    Iglesias was a much better value than Drew. Drew should get a QO on his way to his next team, with Ellsbury.

     As for what the Red Sox will actually do, I have little doubt that Ellsbury will not be back for 2014. I also doubt Drew and Napoli, too, get no more than QO and will not be back. 

    I think the Red Sox will offer Salty 2 or 3 years and 20 to 30M guaranteed.



    1. Who has a career .789 OPS?  Ellsbuy (.816) or Choo (.854)?

    2.  Saltalamacchia can probably get at least 3 years.  Guys like David Ross get 2 years.  I can see it happening.  2 to 3 years in the $18 to 24mill range.

     

    3. Drew would accept a QO in a heartbeat and take the 50% raise, not to mention how the QO hamstrings free agents..  Drew can take a smaller contract 12 months from now and still break even.   Iglesias' value or not, the Sox really needed Peavy.

     

    4.  I could see giving Napoli a QO, and it might not be a bad idea.  Not sure who all these other quality first baseman on the market will be.  One Year Loney?  DH Kendrys Morales?  DFA Mark Reynolds? Mike Morse?  The options are not exactly tempting.

     
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