Sox desperately need 4th starter more proven than Bard

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from DeweyCBoston. Show DeweyCBoston's posts

    Re: Sox desperately need 4th starter more proven than Bard

    BUT we dont need a desperate starter with HUGE ERA.
     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from expitch. Show expitch's posts

    Re: Sox desperately need 4th starter more proven than Bard

    In Response to Re: Sox desperately need 4th starter more proven than Bard:
    In Response to Re: Sox desperately need 4th starter more proven than Bard : I don't agree.  Beltre carries far more injury risk than AGon (despite AGon's shoulder prior to the 2011 season).  AGon also plays a less physically demanding position, which should allow him to remain more effective later into his career than Beltre, who plays with reckless abandon.  Beltre's WAR total for the past 2 seasons is dramatically impacted by his only healthy season since 2006 (as defined by 150+ games played).  Last season he only played in 124 games.  AGon has consistently played 160+ games per season, only narrowly missing that mark last year with 159 games.   Since you brought up the fact that they will be the same age at the end of their respective deals, I feel I should point out that the Rangers are getting less of Beltre's prime in that contract and they aren't saving much on a per year basis.  Beltre's making $16M per year (AAV) with a player option at the end of the deal for another $16M, while AGon is only making $6M more at $22M AAV.  That $6M per year roughly equates to 1 WAR per season over the course of their contracts. AGon is more likely to continue to be a centerpiece of the lineup and defense than Beltre is at the end of their respective deals. While AGon also reduces the need for a quality backup for his position.
    Posted by JB-3
    Equating dollars to WAR seems suspect to me, almost facile.
    Beltre is an individual. There is no way to predict how many more years he will be at the top of his game or near to it.  Let time decide whether he was "overpaid." Time will render the same decision on Gonzalez. We'll see if he was a "bargain."

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from BosoxJoe5. Show BosoxJoe5's posts

    Re: Sox desperately need 4th starter more proven than Bard

    In Response to Re: Sox desperately need 4th starter more proven than Bard:
    In Response to Re: Sox desperately need 4th starter more proven than Bard : Adrian Gonzalez is a fine player ... and his seven-year contract may well be a better investment than the 10-year contract for Albert Pujols. However, one could argue that a five-year, $80 million contract for Adrian Beltre (5.7 WAR* in 2011 and 12.7 WAR over last two seasons) is a wiser investment than a seven-year, $154 million contract for Gonzalez (6.6 WAR in 2011 and 11.8 WAR over last two years). Each player will be the same ages in the last three years of their respective contracts. * Wins Above Replacement as reported at FanGraphs
    Posted by hill55

    That is extremely short sighted. Gonzalez is younger, a better hitter look what he did in Petco compared to Beltre did in Safeco. It is not even close. Image if Gonzalez was healthy last year.
     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from BosoxJoe5. Show BosoxJoe5's posts

    Re: Sox desperately need 4th starter more proven than Bard

    In Response to Re: Sox desperately need 4th starter more proven than Bard:
    BUT we dont need a desperate starter with HUGE ERA.
    Posted by DeweyCBoston

    Who do you want for a fifth starter? His ERA+ is 93 that is slightly below league average.
     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from SonicsMonksLyresVicars. Show SonicsMonksLyresVicars's posts

    Re: Sox desperately need 4th starter more proven than Bard

    C'mon....Lackey/Matsuzaka/Jenks....and Crawford.

    1) Stop the repetive posts about them (ex-Crawford), we get it, your 20/20 hindsight is stellar.  Show us your posts before they were signed to prove your prescience.
    2) Crawford?  Most people were lukewarm on him at any price, most people were horrified at the premium, crippling price we paid.  Show some evidence of your views pre-signing.
     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from expitch. Show expitch's posts

    Re: Sox desperately need 4th starter more proven than Bard

    In Response to Re: Sox desperately need 4th starter more proven than Bard:
    In Response to Re: Sox desperately need 4th starter more proven than Bard : That is extremely short sighted. Gonzalez is younger, a better hitter look what he did in Petco compared to Beltre did in Safeco. It is not even close. Image if Gonzalez was healthy last year.
    Posted by BosoxJoe5
    Try to stay current. Look what Beltre did in Fenway.

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from andrewmitch. Show andrewmitch's posts

    Re: Sox desperately need 4th starter more proven than Bard

    No money in the left in the budget.

    51 million dollars wasted for the 2012 season thanks to Theo. 
     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from ctredsoxfanhugh. Show ctredsoxfanhugh's posts

    Re: Sox desperately need 4th starter more proven than Bard

    Dewey, I would be with you if the price allowed it, brute are already over the cap. Maybe my op overhyped my excitement of the signing. I don't want to anoint Him as our 5th starter but it's a good signing for depth, with the possibility of upside. He's a ground ball pitcher with good controll if he has a good season he could really help outta Fenway.......if not oh we'll, he will likely start the season in Pawtucket anyways unless he REALLY shines in ST.
     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from JB-3. Show JB-3's posts

    Re: Sox desperately need 4th starter more proven than Bard

    In Response to Re: Sox desperately need 4th starter more proven than Bard:
    In Response to Re: Sox desperately need 4th starter more proven than Bard : Equating dollars to WAR seems suspect to me, almost facile. Beltre is an individual. There is no way to predict how many more years he will be at the top of his game or near to it.  Let time decide whether he was "overpaid." Time will render the same decision on Gonzalez. We'll see if he was a "bargain."
    Posted by expitch


    Perhaps you should be responding to Hill since he brought WAR into it.  All I did was use established statistical practices.  You also seem to have missed my main point, which is that Beltre shouldn't be expected to repeat his 2010 season, as it was a gross outlier from his career performances.
     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from Joebreidey. Show Joebreidey's posts

    Re: Sox desperately need 4th starter more proven than Bard

    In Response to Re: Sox desperately need 4th starter more proven than Bard:
    In Response to Re: Sox desperately need 4th starter more proven than Bard : Which other options are you referring to exactly?  An unproven option in Rizzo?  Overpaying Beltre so Youk could stay at 1B? The AGon extension looks like a steal after this offseason.  $100M less than Pujols, and likely less than Fielder as well.
    Posted by JB-3



    MA's arguments make no sense.  Ithink he just says things at random.  Gonzo was a great move, just don't expect MA to understand it.
     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from JB-3. Show JB-3's posts

    Re: Sox desperately need 4th starter more proven than Bard

    In Response to Re: Sox desperately need 4th starter more proven than Bard:
    In Response to Re: Sox desperately need 4th starter more proven than Bard : Try to stay current. Look what Beltre did in Fenway.
    Posted by expitch


    In a season in which he stayed relatively healthy for the first time since 2007.  I'm sorry, but the way he plays, he can't stay healthy which makes it tough to be worth $16M a year.
     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from UticaClub. Show UticaClub's posts

    Re: Sox desperately need 4th starter more proven than Bard

    In Response to Re: Sox desperately need 4th starter more proven than Bard:
    In Response to Re: Sox desperately need 4th starter more proven than Bard : MA's arguments make no sense.  Ithink he just says things at random.  Gonzo was a great move, just don't expect MA to understand it.
    Posted by Joebreidey


    Who is MA? Is at AM (Andrewmitch)?
     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from Joebreidey. Show Joebreidey's posts

    Re: Sox desperately need 4th starter more proven than Bard

    In Response to Re: Sox desperately need 4th starter more proven than Bard:
    In Response to Re: Sox desperately need 4th starter more proven than Bard : Equating dollars to WAR seems suspect to me, almost facile. Beltre is an individual. There is no way to predict how many more years he will be at the top of his game or near to it.  Let time decide whether he was "overpaid." Time will render the same decision on Gonzalez. We'll see if he was a "bargain."
    Posted by expitch


    Sure you can predict.  I predict that  Beltre will be retired from 3B when he is 50.  It sounds easy, but that;s how it starts.  Fangraphs actually has models on how much a player's WAR will decline by each year.  Of course, these are averages, but virtually everthing in life is a prediction of sorts.
     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from Joebreidey. Show Joebreidey's posts

    Re: Sox desperately need 4th starter more proven than Bard

    In Response to Re: Sox desperately need 4th starter more proven than Bard:
    In Response to Re: Sox desperately need 4th starter more proven than Bard : Who is MA? Is at AM (Andrewmitch)?
    Posted by UticaClub


    Yeah, I think he is dyslexic and didn't want him to feel left out.
     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from Joebreidey. Show Joebreidey's posts

    Re: Sox desperately need 4th starter more proven than Bard

    In Response to Re: Sox desperately need 4th starter more proven than Bard:
    In Response to Re: Sox desperately need 4th starter more proven than Bard : In a season in which he stayed relatively healthy for the first time since 2007.  I'm sorry, but the way he plays, he can't stay healthy which makes it tough to be worth $16M a year.
    Posted by JB-3


    It's okay.  Had we signed him, expitch and AM would've been complaining that he only played in 124 games.
     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Sox desperately need 4th starter more proven than Bard

    This is simply brainwashing, dude, sorry but Silva has a 4.68 lifetime ERA, so he gives up plenty of runs. Maybe he doesnt walk em in...similar to Lackeys signing at lower dollars,He isnt a fourth starter by any means, unless yall liked the slide of 2011 or you consider Lackey a #3 starter, Ive learned the difference. 

    Several teams had 4th starters with ERAs of 4.68 or worse (especially if you adjust for league and home park).

    Lackey's 2011 ERA was over 6.00. Last I checked 4.68 is lower than 6.41.

    4.68 is alsolower than several other Sox 4-8 slot starters:
    Dice-K:    5.30
    Wake:     5.12
    Miller:     5.54
    Weiland: 7.66
    (That's over 400 IP of 5+ ERA. 4.68 would be a lot better!)

    I'm not defending Silva or saying he will be able to give us around 4.60 in 2012. He may not even get a chance to pitch with the big club, but signing anyone that might get his act together and give us sub 4.80 or so, is worth a chance at Silva's low cost.

     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from hill55. Show hill55's posts

    Re: Sox desperately need 4th starter more proven than Bard

    In Response to Re: Sox desperately need 4th starter more proven than Bard:
    In Response to Re: Sox desperately need 4th starter more proven than Bard : Equating dollars to WAR seems suspect to me, almost facile. Beltre is an individual. There is no way to predict how many more years he will be at the top of his game or near to it.  Let time decide whether he was "overpaid." Time will render the same decision on Gonzalez. We'll see if he was a "bargain."
    Posted by expitch

    Much of Adrian Beltre's value derives from his defense at the more critical thirdbase position.

    Any comparison would need to look at the defensive difference between Adrian Beltre and Kevin Youkilis at thirdbase (adjusted by the difference between Adrian Gonzalez and Youkilis at firstbase).
     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from hill55. Show hill55's posts

    Re: Sox desperately need 4th starter more proven than Bard

    Speaking of starters, the Miami Marlins picked up Carlos Zambrano for Chris Volstad and no additional payroll.

    Zambrano carries many risks, but the gamble might be worth it at that price ... or not.
     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from JB-3. Show JB-3's posts

    Re: Sox desperately need 4th starter more proven than Bard

    In Response to Re: Sox desperately need 4th starter more proven than Bard:
    In Response to Re: Sox desperately need 4th starter more proven than Bard : Much of Adrian Beltre's value derives from his defense at the more critical thirdbase position. Any comparison would need to look at the defensive difference between Adrian Beltre and Kevin Youkilis at thirdbase (adjusted by the difference between Adrian Gonzalez and Youkilis at firstbase).
    Posted by hill55


    I'm going to use career UZR/150's for this comp to ensure a sufficient sample size for Youk, but keep in mind that Youk is nowhere near the 3B he was when he first came up. (UZR/150 of 19.6 in 2004 vs -3.7 in 2011).

    3B:

    Beltre: 15.4 (17 in 2011) in 16,655 innings
    Youk: 3.2 (-3.7 in 2011) in 2,555 innings

     *** Note: Youk's UZR/150 would be negative if his rookie season is removed ***

    1B:

    Youk: 7.7 (High variability from 2009-2011) in 4,709 innings
    AGon: 2.6 (High variability throughout his career) in 8.491 innings.

    The difference between Youk and Beltre at 3B is about 12 runs over the course of a season (when both are healthy for the year), and the difference at 1B between Youk and AGon is about 5 runs.

    Assuming that everyone is healthy for the full season, Beltre on average would have provided an additional 18 runs worth of defensive support.  As 3B'men I'm willing to call health a wash between Beltre and Youk based off of what we saw last year, assuming they both miss about 40 games, the difference is cut to 15 runs.  

    The hidden cost of Beltre, especially towards the end of his contract, will be the need for an expensive backup who can handle the position for prolonged periods of time.  Right now, one could argue, that that backup is Michael Young, who's making as much money as Beltre and became positionless once Beltre was signed.  In the short term, this doesn't appear to be a problem because of the 2011 season that Young enjoyed.

    In the end, I still like the AGon deal over the Beltre signing because of the durability of AGon and the defense he has shown with Boston (10.8 UZR/150 in 2011), but I think the Sox need to go a different direction at 3B.  I wouldn't be surprised to see a deal involving Youk in July, similar to the Nomar trade.
     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from hill55. Show hill55's posts

    Re: Sox desperately need 4th starter more proven than Bard

    In Response to Re: Sox desperately need 4th starter more proven than Bard:
    In Response to Re: Sox desperately need 4th starter more proven than Bard : I'm going to use career UZR/150's for this comp to ensure a sufficient sample size for Youk, but keep in mind that Youk is nowhere near the 3B he was when he first came up. (UZR/150 of 19.6 in 2004 vs -3.7 in 2011). 3B: Beltre: 15.4 (17 in 2011) in 16,655 innings Youk: 3.2 (-3.7 in 2011) in 2,555 innings  *** Note: Youk's UZR/150 would be negative if his rookie season is removed *** 1B: Youk: 7.7 (High variability from 2009-2011) in 4,709 innings AGon: 2.6 (High variability throughout his career) in 8.491 innings. The difference between Youk and Beltre at 3B is about 12 runs over the course of a season (when both are healthy for the year), and the difference at 1B between Youk and AGon is about 5 runs. Assuming that everyone is healthy for the full season, Beltre on average would have provided an additional 18 runs worth of defensive support.  As 3B'men I'm willing to call health a wash between Beltre and Youk based off of what we saw last year, assuming they both miss about 40 games, the difference is cut to 15 runs.   The hidden cost of Beltre, especially towards the end of his contract, will be the need for an expensive backup who can handle the position for prolonged periods of time.  Right now, one could argue, that that backup is Michael Young, who's making as much money as Beltre and became positionless once Beltre was signed.  In the short term, this doesn't appear to be a problem because of the 2011 season that Young enjoyed. In the end, I still like the AGon deal over the Beltre signing because of the durability of AGon and the defense he has shown with Boston (10.8 UZR/150 in 2011), but I think the Sox need to go a different direction at 3B.  I wouldn't be surprised to see a deal involving Youk in July, similar to the Nomar trade.
    Posted by JB-3

    Nice analysis.
     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from JB-3. Show JB-3's posts

    Re: Sox desperately need 4th starter more proven than Bard

    In Response to Re: Sox desperately need 4th starter more proven than Bard:
    In Response to Re: Sox desperately need 4th starter more proven than Bard : Nice analysis.
    Posted by hill55


    Thanks.  It's been a while since I wrote a post like that.
     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from expitch. Show expitch's posts

    Re: Sox desperately need 4th starter more proven than Bard

    In Response to Re: Sox desperately need 4th starter more proven than Bard:
    In Response to Re: Sox desperately need 4th starter more proven than Bard : I'm going to use career UZR/150's for this comp to ensure a sufficient sample size for Youk, but keep in mind that Youk is nowhere near the 3B he was when he first came up. (UZR/150 of 19.6 in 2004 vs -3.7 in 2011). 3B: Beltre: 15.4 (17 in 2011) in 16,655 innings Youk: 3.2 (-3.7 in 2011) in 2,555 innings  *** Note: Youk's UZR/150 would be negative if his rookie season is removed *** 1B: Youk: 7.7 (High variability from 2009-2011) in 4,709 innings AGon: 2.6 (High variability throughout his career) in 8.491 innings. The difference between Youk and Beltre at 3B is about 12 runs over the course of a season (when both are healthy for the year), and the difference at 1B between Youk and AGon is about 5 runs. Assuming that everyone is healthy for the full season, Beltre on average would have provided an additional 18 runs worth of defensive support.  As 3B'men I'm willing to call health a wash between Beltre and Youk based off of what we saw last year, assuming they both miss about 40 games, the difference is cut to 15 runs.   The hidden cost of Beltre, especially towards the end of his contract, will be the need for an expensive backup who can handle the position for prolonged periods of time.  Right now, one could argue, that that backup is Michael Young, who's making as much money as Beltre and became positionless once Beltre was signed.  In the short term, this doesn't appear to be a problem because of the 2011 season that Young enjoyed. In the end, I still like the AGon deal over the Beltre signing because of the durability of AGon and the defense he has shown with Boston (10.8 UZR/150 in 2011), but I think the Sox need to go a different direction at 3B.  I wouldn't be surprised to see a deal involving Youk in July, similar to the Nomar trade.
    Posted by JB-3
    The numerical correlations that you cite are based on assumptions and methodology that are far from ironclad, as are all stats. If you want to use them to show that Gonzalez is a better deal than Beltre, understand that you are employing a method, among other possibilities, and invoking variables that have yet to play out. Beltre, for instance, could spend his last year(s) at first base if Texas has in the pipeline a prize prospect at third base not a mere "backup." What makes you think that the Rangers don't take such possibilities into consideration?

     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Sox desperately need 4th starter more proven than Bard

    In Response to Re: Sox desperately need 4th starter more proven than Bard:
    Speaking of starters, the Miami Marlins picked up Carlos Zambrano for Chris Volstad and no additional payroll. Zambrano carries many risks, but the gamble might be worth it at that price ... or not.
    Posted by hill55

    No additional payroll...wow, that's a lot of money.

    High upside, but big potential clubhouse issues.

     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from JB-3. Show JB-3's posts

    Re: Sox desperately need 4th starter more proven than Bard

    In Response to Re: Sox desperately need 4th starter more proven than Bard:
    In Response to Re: Sox desperately need 4th starter more proven than Bard : The numerical correlations that you cite are based on assumptions and methodology that are far from ironclad, as are all stats. If you want to use them to show that Gonzalez is a better deal than Beltre, understand that you are employing a method, among other possibilities, and invoking variables that have yet to play out. Beltre, for instance, could spend his last year(s) at first base if Texas has in the pipeline a prize prospect at third base not a mere "backup." What makes you think that the Rangers don't take such possibilities into consideration?
    Posted by expitch

    Yes, that is the entire premise behind projecting how players will play in the future.  I'm glad you know what a projection is.  Additionally, the Red Sox have 3B prospects in the pipeline, making the AGon deal an even easier decision for them.

    No one is saying that both teams can't win.  In fact, I'm fairly certain that no one in this conversation even cared about the ramifications for the Rangers.  The discussion was around if Beltre would have been a better fit for Boston than AGon and I mentioned how some of Beltre's flaws were addressed by Texas as an example of how Beltre impacts roster creation.  Now that being said, it'd be tough to move Beltre to 1B when you're paying so much for his 3B glove.

     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from Joebreidey. Show Joebreidey's posts

    Re: Sox desperately need 4th starter more proven than Bard

    In Response to Re: Sox desperately need 4th starter more proven than Bard:
    Speaking of starters, the Miami Marlins picked up Carlos Zambrano for Chris Volstad and no additional payroll. Zambrano carries many risks, but the gamble might be worth it at that price ... or not.
    Posted by hill55


    $3M, with no guarantee of being better than Volstad.
     
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