Sox desperately need 4th starter more proven than Bard

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from hill55. Show hill55's posts

    Re: Sox desperately need 4th starter more proven than Bard

    In Response to Re: Sox desperately need 4th starter more proven than Bard:
    In Response to Re: Sox desperately need 4th starter more proven than Bard : $3M, with no guarantee of being better than Volstad.
    Posted by Joebreidey

    $2 million to $3 million, less Chris Volstad's projected 2012 salary of $2.6 millon in Volstad's first arbitration season.

    http://www.miamiherald.com/2012/01/04/2574051/miami-marlins-to-get-carlos-zambrano.html

    http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2011/11/projected-arbitration-salaries.html

    ... with no guarantee that Carlos Zambrano will be better than Volstad.
     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from expitch. Show expitch's posts

    Re: Sox desperately need 4th starter more proven than Bard

    In Response to Re: Sox desperately need 4th starter more proven than Bard:
    In Response to Re: Sox desperately need 4th starter more proven than Bard : Yes, that is the entire premise behind projecting how players will play in the future.  I'm glad you know what a projection is.  Additionally, the Red Sox have 3B prospects in the pipeline, making the AGon deal an even easier decision for them. No one is saying that both teams can't win.  In fact, I'm fairly certain that no one in this conversation even cared about the ramifications for the Rangers.  The discussion was around if Beltre would have been a better fit for Boston than AGon and I mentioned how some of Beltre's flaws were addressed by Texas as an example of how Beltre impacts roster creation.  Now that being said, it'd be tough to move Beltre to 1B when you're paying so much for his 3B glove.
    Posted by JB-3
    The ultimate premise is that your assumptions and methodolgy yield reliable projections. We shall see. There is always an ultimate premise and set of assumptions in the choice of any system of evaluation and projection.
    Let's let the Rangers decide whether Beltre at 1B is worth the money - if it comes to that. He might even be worth the money at 3B for the duration of his contract. You have no way of knowing either at this point.
    Please hold the condescension. I not only know what a projection is but what its fallibilities -- of any projection -- are. 

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from Beantowne. Show Beantowne's posts

    Re: Sox desperately need 4th starter more proven than Bard

    In Response to Sox desperately need 4th starter more proven than Bard:
    After collapsing and falling apart in September, pitching seemed to be  the main cause of the collapse. Why aren't the Sox willing to spend some money to sign a reliable 4th starter such as Karoda, Oswalt, etc? I did hear Luchino say at the winter meetings that they prefer to stick close to the luxury tax borderline but  if they have to go over to improve the team, they will and that would more likely occur this year rather than next year. Wouldn't obtaining Kuroda for a year(he did say he would sign for a year) significantly improve the Sox especially since Buchholtz is not a healthy guarantee and Bard is a crap shoot at best as a starter?
    Posted by wvwc61


    61,

    Bard, with his stuff, could prove to be the best starter on the team by years end? Looking foward he has the potential to be a top of the rotation type...the Reality is that it's going to take a couple of years to ready him for the workload of 33 starts and 200 IP. This year he's likely to give us 25 starts and around 160 IP.

    That said, I agree we still have a need for another arm to bolster the organizational depth and I'm pretty certain that Cherington understands that as well. Currently that list includes Miller, Silva, Duckworth, Tazawa & Doubront all of whom could play a role. Each will certainly be given every opportunity to step up and win the #5 job. My guess is that Cherington will add another arm sooner than later. Because unlike last year, we have an open slot that a veteran FA who looking to sign can if he steps up win a job on the open day roster.

    Also with Bailey & Melancon now added to the mix in the pen, we have the luxary of giving Bard a full season to get his feet under him.  So I don't see a problem with his being given a shot to earn a spot in the rotation. Remeber that Matsusaka is targeted to return in August and then Lackey will return next year. Both of whom have to be factored into the big picture plan (2012 and beyond). So if we look at who we currently have with an eye on 2013-2014.

    So looking at 2012 assuming health, we have 121 of 162 starts covered, and need to fill 41 with the 5th starter (30) and then piece meal the remaining 11 starts with our organizational depth. Then with the loss of Matsuaka to FA and the return of Lackey in 2013...the Sox need in 2012 is for a 1 year veteran to pick up 30 starts and give us 180 IP and keep us in games (that could be Miller)...

    2012 Rotation
    Lester (32 starts)
    Beckett (32 starts)
    Buchholz (32 starts)
    Bard (25 starts)
    _ _ _ _ _ job opening
    Matusaka (6 or 6 starts in August & September?)
    Organizational depth (see above)

    2013 Rotation
    Lester
    Beckett
    Buccholz
    Lackey
    Bard
     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from Alibiike. Show Alibiike's posts

    Re: Sox desperately need 4th starter more proven than Bard

    In Response to Re: Sox desperately need 4th starter more proven than Bard:
    In Response to Sox desperately need 4th starter more proven than Bard :    Right now Bard is an unknown, he could be just what the Sox need, or sent back to the bull-pen toresume his set-up role. I for one have no problem with this experiment, it's a good time to see if he can handle starters workload.
    Posted by attic-dan


    How many times did Bard pitch more than one inning? Do you really think he has the stamina or leg strength to endure 7 innings?
    I'm all for having him spot start in 2012, but to be thrust into the starting rotation with zero starts under his belt is not prudent.
     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from UticaClub. Show UticaClub's posts

    Re: Sox desperately need 4th starter more proven than Bard

    In Response to Re: Sox desperately need 4th starter more proven than Bard:
    In Response to Re: Sox desperately need 4th starter more proven than Bard : How many times did Bard pitch more than one inning? Do you really think he has the stamina or leg strength to endure 7 innings? I'm all for having him spot start in 2012, but to be thrust into the starting rotation with zero starts under his belt is not prudent.
    Posted by Alibiike


    That's why the team hires the professions who can collectively make such decisions with a higher level of expertise than us. How is Florida Harv51?
     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from JB-3. Show JB-3's posts

    Re: Sox desperately need 4th starter more proven than Bard

    In Response to Re: Sox desperately need 4th starter more proven than Bard:
    In Response to Re: Sox desperately need 4th starter more proven than Bard : The ultimate premise is that your assumptions and methodolgy yield reliable projections. We shall see. There is always an ultimate premise and set of assumptions in the choice of any system of evaluation and projection. Let's let the Rangers decide whether Beltre at 1B is worth the money - if it comes to that. He might even be worth the money at 3B for the duration of his contract. You have no way of knowing either at this point. Please hold the condescension. I not only know what a projection is but what its fallibilities -- of any projection -- are. 
    Posted by expitch


    Again, you miss the point.  I don't care if Beltre is worth the money at 1B or not.  Would he have ended up playing 1B with Boston?  Probably not.  The discussion is around which deal was a better fit for BOSTON.

    Yes all projections have significant margins of error, but if you have such a problem with projects, perhaps you should stay out of a conversation centered around projecting performances.
     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Sox desperately need 4th starter more proven than Bard

    Projections are fine, but I really think that after Beltre's deal is all done, when we look back, we will see that AGon did better. However, just comparing the two is not looking at the whole picture. Keeping Youk at first might have helped lessen injuries and missed time (missed offense), and certainly would have saved us runs on defense (assuming health).

    If we really want to go back and ask "what ifs?" The clear "what if" do over would have been Crawford. I'm not basing this on his 2011 performance, I said at the time we were "overpaying him by over $50M", that he was nothing more than a "glorified platoon player, and that is contract would "cripple us for 7 years".

    Without CC, we could have made many choices, including...

    Trade for AGon and sign VMart and Beltre (Do not take Papi's option). We'd have had this set-up:
    C- VMart 134 (Salty/Vtek 28)
    1B- AGon 110/Youk 52
    3B- Beltre 110/Youk 52
    DH- Youk 50/AGon 46/Beltre 46/VMart 20
    When Youk walks after 2013, VMart slides to DH.
    Chances are with injuries, VMart could DH or play 1B more often before 2014.

    Don't trade for AGon (maybe trade Kelly & Rizzo for pitching instead)
    Sign Beltre, VMart, a pitcher & Berkman

    Etc...

    I'll admit, I liked the AGon deal, but at the time I stated two reservations:
    1) Moving Youk to 3B would hurt our defense and increase the chance he'd miss time with injuries.
    2) 1Bmen are plentiful and there really isn't a great differential between the 3rd best 1Bman in MLB and the 10th best, or the 5th best vs the 15th best, or the 10th best vs the 20th best, etc... Do you really gain a lot by paying over $20M for a top 3-5 1Bman over using that money elsewhere and finding (or keeping Youk at 1B) a cheaper #7-14 1Bman? (see below) Many argued that the offensive gain of having Youk at 3B vs the average 3Bman would offset the defensive loss, but we had just come off of a pretty incredible 2010 offensive 3B season with Beltre.

    A look at comparative OPS at 3B over a 3 year span:
    1) Pujols  1.007
    2) Miggy  1.005
    3) Votto    .983
    4) Prince  .956
    5) AGon    .940
    6) Youk    .922
    7) Koner  .908
    8) Berkm .889
    9) Napoli .883
    10) Teix   .877
    11) How  .877
    12) Morn  .864
    13) Butler.844
    14) DLee  .844
    20) Lind   .797
    25) Huff   .788
    30) Kotch .718

    2011:
    #3 .981
    #8 .906
    #11 .835
    #17 .800
    #21 .779
    (The lits doesn't include some guys who were hurt such as Morneau, K. Morales, etc... and guys like VMart & Berkman who can play 1B.)

    As you can see, the differential between great and good 1Bmen is not that much. Paying $20+M for that slight gain may not be cost effective, especially if it create defensive losses, positional logjam* issues, or injury problems elsewhere.

    (*Getting AGon caused there to be no slot for Papi to play in NL parks.)

     
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  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from beezer. Show beezer's posts

    Re: Sox desperately need 4th starter more proven than Bard

    1 problem  if aceves starts, lost 3 rel. paps,bard, @ aceves  gained 2 mel@bailey. jenks waste of skin. sox need a reliable 4 starter, 5 can be a crap shoot
     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from Thomasmtom. Show Thomasmtom's posts

    Re: Sox desperately need 4th starter more proven than Bard

    I’m not convinced that Bard can be shuttled around without a drop in performance. Since the Sox have told Bard to prepare to be a starter and Bard has stated he wants to start, moving him back to the bullpen (not closer) is a real problem. Clearly a few low costs moves to create flexibility are called for, a good example would be Micha Owings who can start or work out of the bullpen. (Good hitter as well)

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Sox desperately need 4th starter more proven than Bard

    When you look at what these free agent starting pitchers got for contracts, we may not sign any other starters else this year:
    Bedard    $4.5/1
    Capuano $10m/2
    B Chen    $9M/2
    Garcia      $4M/1
    Harang    $12M/2
    Marquis   $3M/1
    T. Wada   $8.2M/2
    C-M Wang $4M/1
    Willis         $1M/1

    Here's what's left:
    Wei-Yin Chen
    B Colon
    A Cook
    K Davies
    D Davis
    Z Duke
    J Francis
    Galarraga
    J Garland
    R Harden
    C Hensley
    L Hernandez
    H Iwakuma
    E Jackson
    S Kazmir
    H Kuroda
    R Lopez
    P Maholm
    Millwood
    S Mitre
    Olendorf
    R Oswalt
    B Penny
    J Pineiro
    J Saunders
    J Vazquez
    Wakefield
    B Webb
    C Young

    Look at Jason Marquis. He turns 34 in August. He put up these numbers in the NL the last 6 years:
    8-6      4.43  1.492
    2-9      6.60  1.705
    15-13 4.04  1.380
    11-9   4.53  1.449
    12-9   4.60  1.388
    14-16 6.02  1.523

    $3M for this? 
    190 IP as a starter the past 2 years.
     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from garyhow. Show garyhow's posts

    Re: Sox desperately need 4th starter more proven than Bard

    In Response to Re: Sox desperately need 4th starter more proven than Bard:
    In Response to Re: Sox desperately need 4th starter more proven than Bard : Adrian Gonzalez is a fine player ... and his seven-year contract may well be a better investment than the 10-year contract for Albert Pujols. However, one could argue that a five-year, $80 million contract for Adrian Beltre (5.7 WAR* in 2011 and 12.7 WAR over last two seasons) is a wiser investment than a seven-year, $154 million contract for Gonzalez (6.6 WAR in 2011 and 11.8 WAR over last two years). Each player will be the same ages in the last three years of their respective contracts. * Wins Above Replacement as reported at FanGraphs
    Posted by hill55

    Don't agree. Agon's 1st year WAR of 6.9 in Boston was better than Beltre 1 year in Boston of 6.1. Not to mention Agon coming off shoulder surgery that effected his 2nd half [probably tired from no off season conditioning program]. Really see Agon w/ full off season of workouts to put up a really big year in 2012. After next year don't see anyone making this comparision. Like Beltre alot but Agons a much better offensive player.
     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from expitch. Show expitch's posts

    Re: Sox desperately need 4th starter more proven than Bard

    In Response to Re: Sox desperately need 4th starter more proven than Bard:
    In Response to Re: Sox desperately need 4th starter more proven than Bard : Again, you miss the point.  I don't care if Beltre is worth the money at 1B or not.  Would he have ended up playing 1B with Boston?  Probably not.  The discussion is around which deal was a better fit for BOSTON. Yes all projections have significant margins of error, but if you have such a problem with projects, perhaps you should stay out of a conversation centered around projecting performances.
    Posted by JB-3
    See Moon for a detailed analysis of "better fit."
    Ah, gee, can't I even converse about the basis 

     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from expitch. Show expitch's posts

    Re: Sox desperately need 4th starter more proven than Bard

    In Response to Re: Sox desperately need 4th starter more proven than Bard:
    In Response to Re: Sox desperately need 4th starter more proven than Bard : See Moon for a detailed analysis of "better fit." Ah, gee, can't I even converse about the basis 
    Posted by expitch
    of projections?

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Sox desperately need 4th starter more proven than Bard

    I do happen to think AGon is going to have a huge season in 2012.  I think he will hit 40+ HRs and lead the league in RBIs.

    I also think we will have the worst SS-3B defense in MLB, and Youk playing 3B at his age and fragility is asking for trouble.

    I hope CC will be betterfielding  in LF, but I'm not projecting it.

    I see a possible big gain in RF OPS (maybe 100 pts), but possibly worse D.

    I hope Salty improves on defense and has better stamina in 2012.

    Right now, our pitching is based on a wing and a prayer.

    "Wing": we're winging it by trying Bard and Aceves as starters and depleting our pen in the process.

    "Prayer": we are praying the "big 3" stay healthy and in form for the first time ever.
     
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    Re: Sox desperately need 4th starter more proven than Bard

    moonslav i think your spot on about having the worst ss/3B combo. if the sox were smart jose iglesias will the be teams starting ss for 2012. Not no range scutaro.
     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from expitch. Show expitch's posts

    Re: Sox desperately need 4th starter more proven than Bard

    In Response to Re: Sox desperately need 4th starter more proven than Bard:
    I do happen to think AGon is going to have a huge season in 2012.  I think he will hit 40+ HRs and lead the league in RBIs. I also think we will have the worst SS-3B defense in MLB, and Youk playing 3B at his age and fragility is asking for trouble. I hope CC will be betterfielding  in LF, but I'm not projecting it. I see a possible big gain in RF OPS (maybe 100 pts), but possibly worse D. I hope Salty improves on defense and has better stamina in 2012. Right now, our pitching is based on a wing and a prayer. "Wing": we're winging it by trying Bard and Aceves as starters and depleting our pen in the process. "Prayer": we are praying the "big 3" stay healthy and in form for the first time ever.
    Posted by moonslav59

     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from garyhow. Show garyhow's posts

    Re: Sox desperately need 4th starter more proven than Bard

    In Response to Re: Sox desperately need 4th starter more proven than Bard:
    I do happen to think AGon is going to have a huge season in 2012.  I think he will hit 40+ HRs and lead the league in RBIs. I also think we will have the worst SS-3B defense in MLB, and Youk playing 3B at his age and fragility is asking for trouble. I hope CC will be betterfielding  in LF, but I'm not projecting it. I see a possible big gain in RF OPS (maybe 100 pts), but possibly worse D. I hope Salty improves on defense and has better stamina in 2012. Right now, our pitching is based on a wing and a prayer. "Wing": we're winging it by trying Bard and Aceves as starters and depleting our pen in the process. "Prayer": we are praying the "big 3" stay healthy and in form for the first time ever.
    Posted by moonslav59

    Agree w/ infield defense left side. Have to believe if Iglesias does anything offensively @ AAA this year he will be up in heartbeat. Have to remember he's still only 21, seems like he's been here for ever. RS can afford w/ their offense to give up diff between Scuturo/Iggy as long as Iggy doesn't become black hole on offense. If he can manage 240-250 avg w/ 300 obp; something he still needs to prove, he will more than make up for it w/ his glove. Which you can then get by w/ Youk @ 3rd. 
    Don't believe Aceves will end up in rotation, tough for RS to lose 3 best relief pitchers from a not so good bullpen last year. Bard will get a shot because he has potential to be top of rotation guy, and you can't find those types. Aceves at best 4-5 starter, his value is his versatility in bullpen where he's something like 24-5 w/ 2.05 era [off memory here] is where his greatest value is. But health will be the key as it is for most pitching staffs. Who really thought Yanks could get by w/ Colon/Garcia as 4-5 last year. Sometimes better to be lucky [health] than good.

     
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