Re: Sox Get Carp
posted at 2/21/2013 12:40 AM EST
In response to royf19's comment:
In response to SonicsMonksLyresVicars's comment:
In response to georom4's comment:
bottom line is that it has been a some time since lester, clay, and lackey have been top of the rotation pitchers...if they can do it this year, the sox have a chance - like slots however, how often do you get three lemons to match up and pay off?
I think that's a little bit harsh:
- Buch, 28, has pitched very well for the last three years barring the first half of 2012 when recovering from a back injury;
- Lester, 29, has pitched very well for the last 5 years barring Sep 11 - Sep 12...who knows why?;
- Lackey, 33, was very effective for 5 years through 2009. Obviously had elbow issues as evidenced by the specific TJ clause in his contract....then was poor in 2010, historically terrible in 2011 and missed all of 2012.
Is it reasonable to assume that all 3 will revert to their career norms/highs? No, too many variables as with any pitcher. But I don't think Buch or Lester returning to strong nbr 2 starters or Lackey to a decent nbr 4 is a pipe dream.
Good post, but let me add this.
Lester was good for ALL of 2011 except for two starts in September. People should look it up. In four of his six starts he was good to excellent. He was BAD -- HORRIBLE -- in just two starts.
Lackey was better in 2010 than he is given credit for. He was very good the last two or three months of the season. Overall, he had just two fewer good starts than Lester -- (starts where their ERAs for the start was under 4.00). The difference in their ERAs was Lackey's ERA in his bad starts was a bit higher than Lester's, and Lester was more dominant in his good starts than Lackey was.
For Buchholz, it wasn't the first half of 2012 when he struggled, it was just his first six starts. From May 11 through the end of the year, he posted a 3.62 ERA. I'll glad take that from his this year for the entire year, although he is very capable of being better.
I don't want to knit-pick, but I wouldn't call 7 IP 4 ER "Good to excellent". It's not horrible, but 3 of Lester's last 4 starts in 2011 were not good to horrible. The 4th start he only lasted 6 IP and allowed 8 H+BB. What worries me most about Jon is his loss of velocity. Fangraphs had a great article on pitchers who lose their velocity never get it back. It dropped for almost all of 2011 and then a little more in 2012.
With Buch, it's all about his health. Nobody doubts that he has abilty, but back injuries are often reoccuring, and Clay's velocity has been lower the last 2 years as well.
Sure, these two can adjust and become better pitchers as opposed to "throwers", but that usually takes time... as in months or years.
Lackey is a big wild card. Maybe the biggest in MLB for 2013.