Sox Get Carp

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from Beantowne. Show Beantowne's posts

    Re: Sox Get Carp

    In response to softlaw2's comment:

    Getting Carp is huge! He's been awesome v. RP, and is an outstanding defensive player at 1st base and corner OF. Carp only cost one young farm lower level prospect PTBNL. He's on the 40 man roster and adds flexibility.

    Satire completed, the exact opposit is true.

    Carp isn't a fit, at all.

    He's terrible vs. RP.

    He's a terrible defensive player.

    He's out of options.

    He will cost a farm hand that will be more than a near thirty something career minor leaguer.

    Unless he clears waivers, the likely result is Carp ends up back in the dumpster and the Red Sox end up with a net loss on young farm hands.

    There was no justifiable reason to do this. I would have made acquired Loney for one year and about 2M, with an option for year two. Instead, Cherry did a minor league contract tryout or FA deal with Overbay. Once that happened, there was no need for rusting the roster and paying a young farm hand.

    Cherry does not know what he's doing, and simply reacts. He never anticipates the trade and FA market and prepares accordingly. 



    I believe the terms are a PTBNL or cash considerations...My guess is that the compensation is tied to his perfromance? If he makes the roster, they'll send the M's either a AAAA player or a B level prospect. If he doesn't they'll write a check send the M's some cash and move on...

    End of the day Carp's a decent hitter with a little pop that can play the OF and 1B. His versatility and his bat could make him a valuable bench player...Lets not make more of this than that. He's expendable in Seattle due to a roster crunch given the free agent signing of Ibanez and the aquision of Morales...Along with Montero and Smoak the M's have a boat load of 1B/DH types...

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from Hfxsoxnut. Show Hfxsoxnut's posts

    Re: Sox Get Carp

    In response to Schumpeters-Ghost's comment:

    No matter what you think of the "importance" of Batting Average - can we at least agree that it is FUNNY that the sox have signed/acquired MULTIPLE players that batted less than .225 last year?

    Who does that?

     



    Besides Carp, who are you talking about?  Are you including pitchers?

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from MadMc44. Show MadMc44's posts

    Re: Sox Get Carp

    Every move that BenC has made this offseason including Carp has been with the future in mind. If Carp, Hanrahan, Drew, ShaVic, Gomes, Ross, Nap, Dempster do well and the starting pitching fails and the  Sox are out of it at the deadline--in addition to these players and Ells and Bailey--the Sox have the makings of a huge firesale and we get some amazing prospects for these very good veteran performers.

    With question marks re. Ortiz and Nap having a R/L platoon option at 1 B and DH with Carp and Gomez or perhaps WMB; with Xander or Drew @ 3B, we are in pretty good shape.

    Time will tell but I think BenC has done a pretty good job this offseason.

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from Joebreidey. Show Joebreidey's posts

    Re: Sox Get Carp

    In response to Schumpeters-Ghost's comment:

    In response to Joebreidey's comment:

     

    But I take it that you don't feel comfortable backing your .225 prediction with a wager?

     




    When did I predict that he would hit .225? 

     

     

    My prediction was he would be in Pawtucket.

     

    If he plays in Boston - expect him to bat .218

     



    And I assume if I offer a charity bet that he will hit over that, you won't take it?  My charity could sure use your money.

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from notin. Show notin's posts

    Re: Sox Get Carp

    In response to Schumpeters-Ghost's comment:

     

    No matter what you think of the "importance" of Batting Average - can we at least agree that it is FUNNY that the sox have signed/acquired MULTIPLE players that batted less than .225 last year?

    Who does that?

     

     



    Teams that buy low?

     

    Counting Napoli (.227), the Sox spent $14.5 mill and a PTBNL gor 3 players coming off career worst seasons.  Given that the cost for career sub-mediocrities like Kevin Correia was $10mill, is this really so bad?

     

     

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Sox Get Carp

    In response to georom4's comment:

     

    bottom line is that it has been a some time since lester, clay, and lackey have been top of the rotation pitchers...if they can do it this year, the sox have a chance - like slots however, how often do you get three lemons to match up and pay off?

     



    I think that's a little bit harsh:

     

    • Buch, 28, has pitched very well for the last three years barring the first half of 2012 when recovering from a back injury;
    • Lester, 29, has pitched very well for the last 5 years barring Sep 11 - Sep 12...who knows why?;
    • Lackey, 33, was very effective for 5 years through 2009.  Obviously had elbow issues as evidenced by the specific TJ clause in his contract....then was poor in 2010, historically terrible in 2011 and missed all of 2012.

    Is it reasonable to assume that all 3 will revert to their career norms/highs?  No, too many variables as with any pitcher.  But I don't think Buch or Lester returning to strong nbr 2 starters or Lackey to a decent nbr 4 is a pipe dream.

     

     

     




    Good post, but let me add this.

     

    Lester was good for ALL of 2011 except for two starts in September. People should look it up. In four of his six starts he was good to excellent. He was BAD -- HORRIBLE -- in just two starts.

    Lackey was better in 2010 than he is given credit for. He was very good the last two or three months of the season. Overall, he had just two fewer good starts than Lester -- (starts where their ERAs for the start was under 4.00). The difference in their ERAs was Lackey's ERA in his bad starts was a bit higher than Lester's, and Lester was more dominant in his good starts than Lackey was.

    For Buchholz, it wasn't the first half of 2012 when he struggled, it was just his first six starts. From May 11 through the end of the year, he posted a 3.62 ERA. I'll glad take that from his this year for the entire year, although he is very capable of being better.

     



    I don't want to knit-pick, but I wouldn't call 7 IP 4 ER "Good to excellent". It's not horrible, but 3 of Lester's last 4 starts in 2011 were not good to horrible. The 4th start he only lasted 6 IP and allowed 8 H+BB. What worries me most about Jon is his loss of velocity. Fangraphs had a great article on pitchers who lose their velocity never get it back. It dropped for almost all of 2011 and then a little more in 2012.

     

    http://www.fangraphs.com/pitchfxo.aspx?playerid=4930&position=P&pitch=FA

     

    With Buch, it's all about his health. Nobody doubts that he has abilty, but back injuries are often reoccuring, and Clay's velocity has been lower the last 2 years as well.

     

    http://www.fangraphs.com/pitchfxo.aspx?playerid=3543&position=P&pitch=FA

     

    Sure, these two can adjust and become better pitchers as opposed to "throwers", but that usually takes time... as in months or years.

     

    Lackey is a big wild card. Maybe the biggest in MLB for 2013.

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: Sox Get Carp

    In response to pumpsie-green's comment:

    Did you have a TOTR starter in mind? There don't seem to be any available. Reiterating a need that we likely won't be able to fill from outside the organization in every post is kind of beating a dead horse don't you think?

    Exaggerate much? The fact of the matter IS that we need great SP to win a ring, and we don't have it. I also have written that there were really no options THIS year to fill that role, so I am happy we did not surrender any prospects of significance, especially no pitching prospects. That said, I agree with Moon that Cherington seems to be playing this half way and is not going all out to get pitching prospects in exchange for some of our deadwood on the team like Ellsbury, who is likely gone after this year anyway, and possibly Salty or Lavarnway. If we are really planning for 2015 then the proper tact is to do whatever is necessary to get great SP by then. I don't see that happening.




    They did get a couple potential TOTR starters in RDLR and Webster...No guarentees, but both have the stuff to do it and are still developing...Truth is, getting a top pitching prospect doesnt guarentee that he will have great success in MLB. Its a crap shoot, as it is with most prospects.

    We were in no way getting Top pitching prospects for either Salty or Ellsbury. If they could, Im sure they would have this offseason as both names were out there as trade bait...

    More likely is one comes from within the organization or in future FA years . Although most teams are locking there top guys up which is why I think he will come from within...

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: Sox Get Carp

    In response to hill55's comment:

    The Seattle Mariners reportedly have a list of four low-level Red Sox prospects as the potential PTBNL, according to beat reporter Geoff Baker of the Seattle Times:

    http://blogs.seattletimes.com/mariners/2013/02/20/mariners-are-looking-at-group-of-four-non-premium-minor-leaguers-as-return-in-mike-carp-deal/

    I'm still pulling for 18-year-old outfield prospect Manuel Margot.




    Margot, for an 18yr old, looks very promising. Although is way too early to tell...

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: Sox Get Carp

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    In response to mef429's comment:

     

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    We are not playing it half way.  We are playing to compete in 2013.  And we will.

     

    We are pretending to seriously compete, and it will be exposed by the trade deadline.

    We played it halfway. We kept our future in propsects intact, and we signed enough bridge players to make it look like we might make the playoffs is we stay healthy and have some luck.

     




    i would much rather "pretend" to compete than sell off all our assets and write the next 2 years off.

     

     




     

    We could have been pretty close to as good as we are now, AND made at least a couple moves to make us better in 2015 and beyond.

    It didn't have to be all or nothing, but we did virtually nothing to help ourselves for 2015, and don't tell me not making some deals (prospects) made us better. It didn't. It kept the future the same: bright, but not brighter.




    3 years is a long time in MLB Moon...There is just soooo much that can happen between now and then...Big market=compete now...

    If they perform as you think they will, then they will have the pieces at the deadline to acquire prospects for the future...

     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from BosoxJoe5. Show BosoxJoe5's posts

    Re: Sox Get Carp

    In response to Beantowne's comment:

    In response to softlaw2's comment:

     

    Getting Carp is huge! He's been awesome v. RP, and is an outstanding defensive player at 1st base and corner OF. Carp only cost one young farm lower level prospect PTBNL. He's on the 40 man roster and adds flexibility.

    Satire completed, the exact opposit is true.

    Carp isn't a fit, at all.

    He's terrible vs. RP.

    He's a terrible defensive player.

    He's out of options.

    He will cost a farm hand that will be more than a near thirty something career minor leaguer.

    Unless he clears waivers, the likely result is Carp ends up back in the dumpster and the Red Sox end up with a net loss on young farm hands.

    There was no justifiable reason to do this. I would have made acquired Loney for one year and about 2M, with an option for year two. Instead, Cherry did a minor league contract tryout or FA deal with Overbay. Once that happened, there was no need for rusting the roster and paying a young farm hand.

    Cherry does not know what he's doing, and simply reacts. He never anticipates the trade and FA market and prepares accordingly. 

     



    I believe the terms are a PTBNL or cash considerations...My guess is that the compensation is tied to his perfromance? If he makes the roster, they'll send the M's either a AAAA player or a B level prospect. If he doesn't they'll write a check send the M's some cash and move on...

     

    End of the day Carp's a decent hitter with a little pop that can play the OF and 1B. His versatility and his bat could make him a valuable bench player...Lets not make more of this than that. He's expendable in Seattle due to a roster crunch given the free agent signing of Ibanez and the aquision of Morales...Along with Montero and Smoak the M's have a boat load of 1B/DH types...



    It really funny here that he mentioned Loney. How is Loney comparable to either Carp or Overbay. He is a starting first baseman.

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: Sox Get Carp

    In response to dgalehouse's comment:

    In response to SonicsMonksLyresVicars' comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to dgalehouse's comment:

     

    Has the bar been lowered so much that we are celebrating the acquisition of a .213 hitting Mariner reject ? 

     



    Career batting averages:

     

    Josh Reddick:  .244

    Mike Carp:  .255

    Joe Charboneau:  .266

    Carlton Fisk:  .269

    Jody Reed:  .270

    Ralph Kiner:  .279

    Craig Biggio:  .281

    Tim Naering:  .282

    Carl Yastrzemski:  .285

    Reggie Smith:  .287

    Cecil Cooper:  .298

     

    So tell me again why BA is so important?

    When a guy hits .213 and is DFA'd by a last place club, it is not a good sign, regardless of your thoughts on the importance of BA. It's not as if he hit a ton of home runs or was a defensive whiz.




    using numbers after returning from an injury is probably not the best way to do it though.

    S. Drew was about an 800 OPS SS before his injury, but some want to use his numbers after coming back from a horrifying injury to judge him...3 year samples (if available) are probably much more accurate as is more than just BA.

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: Sox Get Carp

    In response to BosoxJoe5's comment:

    In response to Beantowne's comment:

     

    In response to softlaw2's comment:

     

    Getting Carp is huge! He's been awesome v. RP, and is an outstanding defensive player at 1st base and corner OF. Carp only cost one young farm lower level prospect PTBNL. He's on the 40 man roster and adds flexibility.

    Satire completed, the exact opposit is true.

    Carp isn't a fit, at all.

    He's terrible vs. RP.

    He's a terrible defensive player.

    He's out of options.

    He will cost a farm hand that will be more than a near thirty something career minor leaguer.

    Unless he clears waivers, the likely result is Carp ends up back in the dumpster and the Red Sox end up with a net loss on young farm hands.

    There was no justifiable reason to do this. I would have made acquired Loney for one year and about 2M, with an option for year two. Instead, Cherry did a minor league contract tryout or FA deal with Overbay. Once that happened, there was no need for rusting the roster and paying a young farm hand.

    Cherry does not know what he's doing, and simply reacts. He never anticipates the trade and FA market and prepares accordingly. 

     



    I believe the terms are a PTBNL or cash considerations...My guess is that the compensation is tied to his perfromance? If he makes the roster, they'll send the M's either a AAAA player or a B level prospect. If he doesn't they'll write a check send the M's some cash and move on...

     

    End of the day Carp's a decent hitter with a little pop that can play the OF and 1B. His versatility and his bat could make him a valuable bench player...Lets not make more of this than that. He's expendable in Seattle due to a roster crunch given the free agent signing of Ibanez and the aquision of Morales...Along with Montero and Smoak the M's have a boat load of 1B/DH types...

     



    It really funny here that he mentioned Loney. How is Loney comparable to either Carp or Overbay. He is a starting first baseman.

     




    They are not comparable thats why his arguement is empty...

     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from mef429. Show mef429's posts

    Re: Sox Get Carp

    In response to southpaw777's comment:

    In response to dgalehouse's comment:

     

    In response to SonicsMonksLyresVicars' comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to dgalehouse's comment:

     

    Has the bar been lowered so much that we are celebrating the acquisition of a .213 hitting Mariner reject ? 

     



    Career batting averages:

     

    Josh Reddick:  .244

    Mike Carp:  .255

    Joe Charboneau:  .266

    Carlton Fisk:  .269

    Jody Reed:  .270

    Ralph Kiner:  .279

    Craig Biggio:  .281

    Tim Naering:  .282

    Carl Yastrzemski:  .285

    Reggie Smith:  .287

    Cecil Cooper:  .298

     

    So tell me again why BA is so important?

    When a guy hits .213 and is DFA'd by a last place club, it is not a good sign, regardless of your thoughts on the importance of BA. It's not as if he hit a ton of home runs or was a defensive whiz.

     




    using numbers after returning from an injury is probably not the best way to do it though.

     

    S. Drew was about an 800 OPS SS before his injury, but some want to use his numbers after coming back from a horrifying injury to judge him...3 year samples (if available) are probably much more accurate as is more than just BA.




    to SG only last years stats matter. In that respect, Lackey had Cy Young stuff! an ERA of -0-!!!!! WOWZERS

     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from Drewski5. Show Drewski5's posts

    Re: Sox Get Carp

    In response to Schumpeters-Ghost's comment:

    No matter what you think of the "importance" of Batting Average - can we at least agree that it is FUNNY that the sox have signed/acquired MULTIPLE players that batted less than .225 last year?

    Who does that?

     




    I dont see anything wrong with looking for  undervalued players (because they are either coming off a bad season or because they have non-sexy stats in overvalued categories, i.e. batting average) who you can buy low.

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from Drewski5. Show Drewski5's posts

    Re: Sox Get Carp

    In response to notin's comment:

    In response to Schumpeters-Ghost's comment:

     

    No matter what you think of the "importance" of Batting Average - can we at least agree that it is FUNNY that the sox have signed/acquired MULTIPLE players that batted less than .225 last year?

    Who does that?

     

     



    Teams that buy low?

     

    Counting Napoli (.227), the Sox spent $14.5 mill and a PTBNL gor 3 players coming off career worst seasons.  Given that the cost for career sub-mediocrities like Kevin Correia was $10mill, is this really so bad?

     

     



    Exactly what I was thinking.

     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Sox Get Carp

    We could have been pretty close to as good as we are now, AND made at least a couple moves to make us better in 2015 and beyond.

    It didn't have to be all or nothing, but we did virtually nothing to help ourselves for 2015, and don't tell me not making some deals (prospects) made us better. It didn't. It kept the future the same: bright, but not brighter.

     




    3 years is a long time in MLB Moon...There is just soooo much that can happen between now and then...Big market=compete now...

     

    If they perform as you think they will, then they will have the pieces at the deadline to acquire prospects for the future...

    \

    If we are out of it by the deadline, chances are many of the players obtained will not be performing well enough to garner good prospects in return, but I am thinking that might be the best part of this winter's dealings.

    I do think we could get more for 6 months of Ellsbury with the draft pick attached than 2 months and no draft pick, but one never knows.

     

    Is it really that much to have expected one move this winter to bolster or longterm future?

     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from ADG. Show ADG's posts

    Re: Sox Get Carp

    We get a semi-garbage player for nothing. Good trade.

     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from Joebreidey. Show Joebreidey's posts

    Re: Sox Get Carp

    In response to Drewski5's comment:

    In response to Schumpeters-Ghost's comment:

     

    No matter what you think of the "importance" of Batting Average - can we at least agree that it is FUNNY that the sox have signed/acquired MULTIPLE players that batted less than .225 last year?

    Who does that?

     

     




     

    I dont see anything wrong with looking for  undervalued players (because they are either coming off a bad season or because they have non-sexy stats in overvalued categories, i.e. batting average) who you can buy low.



    Half the world waits until a stock is at its peak before they buy.  Some people look for stocks that had a rough stretch and got oversold.

    Who do you think goes home with all the money?

     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from notin. Show notin's posts

    Re: Sox Get Carp

    In response to pumpsie-green's comment:

    In response to ctredsoxfanhugh's comment:

     

    In response to dgalehouse's comment:

     

    Has the bar been lowered so much that we are celebrating the acquisition of a .213 hitting Mariner reject ? 

     



    That was his AVG last year in appx 150 at-bats.  Talk about misleading facts.  his career avg is higher.  He has power against righties (so he will platoon well with Napoli and Gomes) and He has spent the last couple seasons hitting in one of the worst hitters ballparks, and he's only in his mid 20's

     

     

    Lets relax a bit, he's a BENCH player

     




     

    Exactly. Acquiring Carp is much ado about nothing. This does absolutely nothing to make this team better other than getting one more warm body to fill in if someone gets injured. We are still a .500 team at best this year.




     

    Yes the Sox are a .500 team, give or take .100.  I will safely predict they win between 40% and 60% of the time with massive amounts of certainty...

     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from Joebreidey. Show Joebreidey's posts

    Re: Sox Get Carp

    In response to pumpsie-green's comment:

    In response to ctredsoxfanhugh's comment:

     

    In response to dgalehouse's comment:

     

    Has the bar been lowered so much that we are celebrating the acquisition of a .213 hitting Mariner reject ? 

     



    That was his AVG last year in appx 150 at-bats.  Talk about misleading facts.  his career avg is higher.  He has power against righties (so he will platoon well with Napoli and Gomes) and He has spent the last couple seasons hitting in one of the worst hitters ballparks, and he's only in his mid 20's

     

     

    Lets relax a bit, he's a BENCH player

     




     

    Exactly. Acquiring Carp is much ado about nothing. This does absolutely nothing to make this team better other than getting one more warm body to fill in if someone gets injured. We are still a .500 team at best this year.



    I will gladly make you a tag bet that we are over .500 this year.  Any interest?

     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from royf19. Show royf19's posts

    Re: Sox Get Carp

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    In response to royf19's comment:

     

    In response to SonicsMonksLyresVicars's comment:

     

    In response to georom4's comment:

     

    bottom line is that it has been a some time since lester, clay, and lackey have been top of the rotation pitchers...if they can do it this year, the sox have a chance - like slots however, how often do you get three lemons to match up and pay off?

     



    I think that's a little bit harsh:

     

    • Buch, 28, has pitched very well for the last three years barring the first half of 2012 when recovering from a back injury;
    • Lester, 29, has pitched very well for the last 5 years barring Sep 11 - Sep 12...who knows why?;
    • Lackey, 33, was very effective for 5 years through 2009.  Obviously had elbow issues as evidenced by the specific TJ clause in his contract....then was poor in 2010, historically terrible in 2011 and missed all of 2012.

    Is it reasonable to assume that all 3 will revert to their career norms/highs?  No, too many variables as with any pitcher.  But I don't think Buch or Lester returning to strong nbr 2 starters or Lackey to a decent nbr 4 is a pipe dream.

     

     

     




    Good post, but let me add this.

     

    Lester was good for ALL of 2011 except for two starts in September. People should look it up. In four of his six starts he was good to excellent. He was BAD -- HORRIBLE -- in just two starts.

    Lackey was better in 2010 than he is given credit for. He was very good the last two or three months of the season. Overall, he had just two fewer good starts than Lester -- (starts where their ERAs for the start was under 4.00). The difference in their ERAs was Lackey's ERA in his bad starts was a bit higher than Lester's, and Lester was more dominant in his good starts than Lackey was.

    For Buchholz, it wasn't the first half of 2012 when he struggled, it was just his first six starts. From May 11 through the end of the year, he posted a 3.62 ERA. I'll glad take that from his this year for the entire year, although he is very capable of being better.

     



    I don't want to knit-pick, but I wouldn't call 7 IP 4 ER "Good to excellent". It's not horrible, but 3 of Lester's last 4 starts in 2011 were not good to horrible. The 4th start he only lasted 6 IP and allowed 8 H+BB. What worries me most about Jon is his loss of velocity. Fangraphs had a great article on pitchers who lose their velocity never get it back. It dropped for almost all of 2011 and then a little more in 2012.

     

    http://www.fangraphs.com/pitchfxo.aspx?playerid=4930&position=P&pitch=FA

     

    With Buch, it's all about his health. Nobody doubts that he has abilty, but back injuries are often reoccuring, and Clay's velocity has been lower the last 2 years as well.

     

    http://www.fangraphs.com/pitchfxo.aspx?playerid=3543&position=P&pitch=FA

     

    Sure, these two can adjust and become better pitchers as opposed to "throwers", but that usually takes time... as in months or years.

     

    Lackey is a big wild card. Maybe the biggest in MLB for 2013.



    I meant to say fair to very good. 7 IP, 4 ER is what you want from a starter when he's not sharp because that still gives you a chance to win. The problem with September is no one picked anyone up. The Sox averaged 5.0 runs per game. They scored just three runs.

    As for the 6 IP start, I'm less concerned with the eight hits and care more about the fact he only allowed two runs. In a specific game, that's what mattered. Yeah, it would have been good for him to go at least seven innings, but 6 IP, 2 ER is still a good start. Offense again scored just three runs and the bullpen allowed two runs in three IP.

    My point with Lester is that he gave the Sox the chance to win in four of six starts. When many fans describe in September, they make it sound like he blew up in all six starts. 

     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from royf19. Show royf19's posts

    Re: Sox Get Carp

    In response to Sheriff-Rojas' comment:

    In response to royf19's comment:

     

    In response to SonicsMonksLyresVicars's comment:

     

    In response to georom4's comment:

     

    bottom line is that it has been a some time since lester, clay, and lackey have been top of the rotation pitchers...if they can do it this year, the sox have a chance - like slots however, how often do you get three lemons to match up and pay off?

     



    I think that's a little bit harsh:

     

    • Buch, 28, has pitched very well for the last three years barring the first half of 2012 when recovering from a back injury;
    • Lester, 29, has pitched very well for the last 5 years barring Sep 11 - Sep 12...who knows why?;
    • Lackey, 33, was very effective for 5 years through 2009.  Obviously had elbow issues as evidenced by the specific TJ clause in his contract....then was poor in 2010, historically terrible in 2011 and missed all of 2012.

    Is it reasonable to assume that all 3 will revert to their career norms/highs?  No, too many variables as with any pitcher.  But I don't think Buch or Lester returning to strong nbr 2 starters or Lackey to a decent nbr 4 is a pipe dream.

     

     

     




    Good post, but let me add this.

     

    Lester was good for ALL of 2011 except for two starts in September. People should look it up. In four of his six starts he was good to excellent. He was BAD -- HORRIBLE -- in just two starts.

    Lackey was better in 2010 than he is given credit for. He was very good the last two or three months of the season. Overall, he had just two fewer good starts than Lester -- (starts where their ERAs for the start was under 4.00). The difference in their ERAs was Lackey's ERA in his bad starts was a bit higher than Lester's, and Lester was more dominant in his good starts than Lackey was.

    For Buchholz, it wasn't the first half of 2012 when he struggled, it was just his first six starts. From May 11 through the end of the year, he posted a 3.62 ERA. I'll glad take that from his this year for the entire year, although he is very capable of being better.

     



     

    Those were two horrible starts in critical games where we expected Lester to step up and stop the bleeding.  Up to that point, I thought he might be a big game pitcher and maybe even an ace.  Lester was the last hope at that point for an ailing staff, and he didn't deliver.  If the Red Sox are going to be winners again, key players need to step up when it counts most.  



    I agree that he and Beckett needed to step up more. But as I posted before -- he could have gone 9 IP, 3 ER, in all six of his starts (3.00 ERA) and would have had the same record he had -- 1-3 with 2 ND. Had he gone 9 IP, 2 ER, he would have gone just 3-2 with one ND, but really -- how many pitchers have a 2.00 ERA? 

    Yes, it would have been nice if he could have gone 9 IP, 1 ER, but I'm not going to blast a guy because he's not that type of ace. Not many aces are that type of ace. And even that wouldn't have been enough in two of his last four starts when he got just one run of support in each game. I'm not going to fault a guy for not pitching shutouts. He got just eight runs in his last four starts of the year.

     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from sportsbozo1. Show sportsbozo1's posts

    Re: Sox Get Carp

    Now the only thing the Sox need is another starter just in case the present ones fail miserably! Carp vs. Nava,Sweeney,Maier and Overbay for the one open spot....I've got my money on Overbay winning the B/U 1rst base job going away!!! Nava makes the team because he's a Switchhitter.

     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from royf19. Show royf19's posts

    Re: Sox Get Carp

    The funny thing about all the criticism of Carp is that this is exactly the type of deals that looks huge at the end of the year -- that flyer on a player coming off a bad year who was decent the year before and turns it around.

    It's also the type of player that when other teams get and produce, posters on this board whine about why can't the Sox find these players.

    Who knows if Carp will produce, but if he doesn't, well, the Sox gave up practically nothing. In the meantime, he adds competiton to the mix.  And isn't that what we want? Players who have to earn their spots instead of being too comfortable.

     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from Schumpeters-Ghost. Show Schumpeters-Ghost's posts

    Re: Sox Get Carp

    In response to Joebreidey's comment:

    Half the world waits until a stock is at its peak before they buy.  Some people look for stocks that had a rough stretch and got oversold.

    Who do you think goes home with all the money?



    Try this experiment.  Find 5 or 6 stocks that have traded at historic lows to close out last year.  Buy those stocks and wait 12 months. 

    You will be broke.

    When a stock hits historic lows - it is almost always a bad investment =- beccause that historic low goes lower. 

    The Sox have picked up 5 or 6 historic-low stocks this off season.  No need to guess how that will turn out.

    An investor would be better served putting his money into TWO solid stocks than 6 speculative, gasping, collapsing stocks.

     

     

     

     
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