In Response to Re: Sox looking for shortstop?
[QUOTE]Just because he's cheaper than Reyes, doesn't mean a team is willing to pay $6M and part with players to get him. While it's true that the FA market does not have many good hitting SSs on the market, most NL teams realy value defense at SS. I could see us making a trade for a higher priced SS and/or starter pitcher and Scutty being part of the deal. How's this one? Trade: Ellsbury, Scutaro, Salty, Weiland and Bowden For: Wieters (3 arbs left after this winter) , J. Guthrie (~$7-8M on last arb year--extend him) and JJ Hardy (~$15M/2 left)
Posted by moonslav59[/QUOTE]
Why overcomplicate these trade thought simply to get one player you really want? How often do 7 player trades happen in MLB? You have mastered the art of rationalizing overly complicated trades based solely on contractual commitments. First of all, Baltimore is not trading Wieters, end of story. They gave the guy $6mill coming out of college, and did so for a reason. His nickname is “Switch Hitting Jesus,” again, for a reason. Trust me- they want him where he is, and 2 years of Ellsbury when they already have a guy they like in CF would not change their minds. If you kept it simple, like Scutaro and Weiland for Guthrie, you’d have a more realistic proposal. But I’m not sure the Orioles are the best trade partner here, even if they have a guy we all want.
Keep it simpler. Some thoughts - the following teams have a very real shot at being competitive next season and have a gaping hole at shortstop.
Detroit (if Peralta moves to 3B, either way they need INF help potentially at 2B and 3B and Scutaro could be a good 2B for them),
St. Louis (very likely to bring back Furcal, but have not yet and might not come to an agreement)
Pittsburgh (the balance of power in the NL Central rests solely on where Fielder and Pujols end up)
That is 8 teams in need of a SS. Even if 3 of them sign Reyes, Furcal, and Rollins, that leaves 5 teams. And those free agents also might each sign elsewhere, though it is doubtful a rebuilding team signs Rollins. (Reyes could be a nice building block, Furcal a reasonable stopgap).
Atlanta does have a SS prospect (Tyler Pastornicky) who could start opening day, but is reportedly just not thrilling anyone at the moment. Scutaro is an ideal stopgap for them. Too bad they have little that matches up (re: they would want to trade) for Scutaro. A third team would be needed. That overcomplicates this for me. Move on.
I’m not sure how Tampa feels about Boston, but I don’t believe that myth that teams don’t like to trade within the division, mostly because it is not true. (Seattle/Texas Cliff Lee trade, Florida/Atlanta Dan Uggla trade, etc.). Still, they are unlikely to make the deal since they don’t have a disposable costly pitcher making that they would give up for player like Scutaro. They might prefer Iglesias, and might even surrender Niemann or Davis for him. But I’m stretching. Too complicated. Next.
The Cardinals would probably love to move Westbrook ($9.3mill thru 2012) or Lohse ($11.8mill thru 2012) for him. Even if they bring back Furcal, it’s not like Rogers Hornsby is manning 2b there anymore. This not only helps the middle INF, but also opens a rotation spot for them to discuss lifelong Cardinals fan Mark Buerhle.
I’m having trouble finding anything realistic in Detroit, too. I now at this point, you come in with some contract numbers and rationalize something like the Sox getting Max Scherzer and Ryan Raburn for Scutaro, Renaudo and Lowrie, but that’s not how I operate. (Although Raburn is a really good thought for Boston. Dude plays anywhere and might be the best specialist in all of MLB when it comes to mashing LHP. Outstanding platoon choice in RF with Reddick/Kalish. Great call on your part.) Delmon Young works out financially, but I wouldn’t make that move if I was running either team.
Milwaukee has Randy Wolf, but they probably need Wolf more than Scutaro. And I don’t see any match up with the Giants. Ditto Pittsburgh, although they would love him there. Anyway, I could see the Giants signing Rollins and the Brewers signing Reyes.
And these are just the teams that might have a shot next year. Then there are those that might be looking for a simple stopgap solution and maybe a potentially useful contract to move. Colorado, for example, is one. The Dodgers, Twins, Blue Jays, Cubs, and Astros also might not mind a stopgap player. I’d love to see a Scutaro / Huston Street swap, but I doubt they surrender Street for that little. If 2013 was already guaranteed for $9mill, maybe. But it’s an option, so he is less of a risk for anyone to acquire.
The guy is movable. And if the Sox can get a back of the rotation starter for him, they need to do it. If they can get a quality relief arm for him, they need to do it. The Dodgers would possibly move Ted Lilly ($22mill through 2013) for Scutaro. And while Lilly is a very, very underrated pitcher, he is already 35 and that is a pretty big contract. It might make more sense for the Sox to ask for Matt Guerrer ($9.5mill though 2013).
I still like the idea of Blanton. He has one year left at $8.5mill, and is a very underrated pitcher. He certainly has a lot of success in the K/BB department, constantly keeping it over 3. And Philly would love to move him, the Sox need a starter or two, and this move would cost a net of $2.5mill. What 180IP starter will anyone be able to sign for that?
Blanton, Westbrook, Lohse, Lilly or Guerrier. I know these are not stellar pitchers who will be contending for the Cy Young, but all represent serious upgrades over the Weiland / Wakefield / Miller crowd who represented the back end last year (except Guerrier, who would be in the pen). All have pitched in the AL, but all have pros and cons. The idiot answer at this point is “Don’t bother and let’s see what the kids can do.” First, it’s not like we have a boatload of young pitchers knocking on the door. And second, there are plenty of innings to go around for veterans and kids. Last year, the opening day rotation lost 2 pitchers by the end of the season. In 2012, we get one back but are losing another. It’s not like simply naming 5 pitchers in April is a realistic solution, and it never has been.
Even if these pitchers don’ t all have ERA’s under 4.00, there is a serious value in getting 170+ IP from a starter and not destroying the bullpen the way the September rotation did. Moving Scutaro could seriously help this rotation, and replacing him with Iglesias (especially if Youkilis is at third, which we all know is going to happen despite many brilliant suggestions that it should not) is probably enough of an upgrade defensively to justify however poorly Iglesias hits…