Sox pick at #7

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    Sox pick at #7

    I would go after a big bat impact hitter that would be in Boston in 2 years or less.

     
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    Re: Sox pick at #7

    Not getting that at #7 unless magically Bryant or Moran falls.  

    Bryan won't fall....Moran is possible but has a lower ceiling (very high floor)

    If you want upside, one of Frazier or Meadows should be there.  But don't expect them to be in Boston in 2 years though.

     
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    Re: Sox pick at #7

    The only certainty of this draft is that Kris Bryant will NOT go at #2 to Chicago.   n all their years in Boston, Epstein and Hoyer drafted one corner infielder or outfielder in the first two rounds, so chances are slim they take one at #2 overall.   The sole exception was second round pick Bryce Brentz.

     

    There is actually a reasonable chance Bryant falls to #7.  No one thought Appel would fall as far as #8, but he did.   Your best be for elite talents falling are Boras clients.   Last word on the subject was Bryant was leaning towards Boras...

     
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    Re: Sox pick at #7

    Chicago takes Appel or Grey, I'd put money on that.  Not a lt of money but some.

    Bryant not being #2 probably is the most certain thing that is for sure.  I could be wrong.....but I really really doubt all of Colorado, Minnesota, and Cleveland pass on Bryant.  Even Miami.  I'd be amazingly happy if he falls but very shocked.

     
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    Re: Sox pick at #7

    I also want to add a bit on he subject of the Sox not drafting a corner infielder.  That has been a large part of their draft strategy or years.  Sox like college pitchers and up the middle position players.  They go or the elite athletes, they figure some of those guys will outgrow the position and move to a corner.  This makes sense because if you are athletic enough to play SS then you can easily play any infield position.  If you can play center, then you can handle LF/RF.  of course the outfield demands a stronger am in right and all corners put more pressure on the bat.

    The Sox have never been in this position before, at least not with this regime.  They don't have 5 or 6 picks in the first two rounds, they don't have an unlimited bank account for bonus money, and for the first time in over two decades they don't have to wait very long to pick.  So it will be very interesting to see what happens if a Colin Moran or a Bryant are on the board when they get to #7

    For the first time in a while the sox can actually grab ELITE talent rather than draft someone with elite tools hoping they turn into an elite talent. I believe they will take the BPA, even if it's a corner player.  

    The only thing I really expect out of this draft is for the sox to spread around their risk.  If they take an Austin Meadows at #7 the I say they go college pitcher at 45.  If the Sox end up taking a college pitcher at #7 then I can see them drafting a high upside HS position player  at #45.

     
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    Re: Sox pick at #7

    In response to ctredsoxfanhugh's comment:

    Chicago takes Appel or Grey, I'd put money on that.  Not a lt of money but some.

    Bryant not being #2 probably is the most certain thing that is for sure.  I could be wrong.....but I really really doubt all of Colorado, Minnesota, and Cleveland pass on Bryant.  Even Miami.  I'd be amazingly happy if he falls but very shocked.




    Appel or GRey could go 1-2, but Appel was a lock for 1 last year and fell to 8. 

     

    MLBTR started a series of articles where they interviewed players and asked them why they chose their agent.  The first player interviewed was Jay Bruce.   Bruce originally chose Boras as his agent, but was told in pre-draft interviews that his choice of agent would mean about 30% of the teams would not talk to him.  Eventually, Bruce dropped Boras.

     

    Boras really does have a significant impact on  drafting, much moreso than his overblown impact on free agency.  Stephen Drew was another Boras client who fell.  Anticipated as on of the top 2 picks in 2005, Drew dropped to 15.  The other top talent he was often paired with was Jered Weaver, but Weaver (another Boras client) fell to 12.   The Padres chose Matt Bush #1 overall, in in one of the worst draft picks ever.  But Bush was a local SS/RHP not represented by Boras, and the Padres thought they could sign him.  (They did.  He failed a shorstop, and as a pitcher, and he languished s a minor league mediocrity for years before winding up in prison, where he will remain until 2016.)

     
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    Re: Sox pick at #7

    In response to ctredsoxfanhugh's comment:

    Chicago takes Appel or Grey, I'd put money on that.  Not a lt of money but some.

    Bryant not being #2 probably is the most certain thing that is for sure.  I could be wrong.....but I really really doubt all of Colorado, Minnesota, and Cleveland pass on Bryant.  Even Miami.  I'd be amazingly happy if he falls but very shocked.




    Cleveland might be better off passing on notoriosuly expensive Boras clients.  They have no second round pick/budget and no third round pick/budget...

     
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    Re: Sox pick at #7

    I'm guessing the Cubs sign one of the top two who fall to them.  If Houston takes a surprise pick, and or Chicago does, then things might get very interesting.

    The consensus top 3 seems to be Appel, Grey, Bryant. With most people believing that Appel and Grey flip.  

    The will be at least 1 team in front of us that passes on the bpa to save money, and probably one team at least that chooses a safe pick overs a high ceiling pick.  So I think it's a lock we get a top 5 talent.  Which is big because this is supposedly a weak draft, however the top of draft while not particularly strong, it's ot as weak as the draft overall suggests.

    So I'm going to stick with my guns.  I think we take Frazier or Stewart, and possibly Shipley,Ball, Meadows.  Thing is Appel has much less leverage as a senior and almost no chance of a payday outside the top 5.  

    a team will take a chance on singing him who has a protected pick.  Who it is? I have no idea....I'm guessing Chicago. It will be a very interesting day!

     
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    Re: Sox pick at #7

    In response to notin's comment:

    In response to ctredsoxfanhugh's comment:

     

    Chicago takes Appel or Grey, I'd put money on that.  Not a lt of money but some.

    Bryant not being #2 probably is the most certain thing that is for sure.  I could be wrong.....but I really really doubt all of Colorado, Minnesota, and Cleveland pass on Bryant.  Even Miami.  I'd be amazingly happy if he falls but very shocked.

     




    Appel or GRey could go 1-2, but Appel was a lock for 1 last year and fell to 8. 

     

     

    MLBTR started a series of articles where they interviewed players and asked them why they chose their agent.  The first player interviewed was Jay Bruce.   Bruce originally chose Boras as his agent, but was told in pre-draft interviews that his choice of agent would mean about 30% of the teams would not talk to him.  Eventually, Bruce dropped Boras.

     

    Boras really does have a significant impact on  drafting, much moreso than his overblown impact on free agency.  Stephen Drew was another Boras client who fell.  Anticipated as on of the top 2 picks in 2005, Drew dropped to 15.  The other top talent he was often paired with was Jered Weaver, but Weaver (another Boras client) fell to 12.   The Padres chose Matt Bush #1 overall, in in one of the worst draft picks ever.  But Bush was a local SS/RHP not represented by Boras, and the Padres thought they could sign him.  (They did.  He failed a shorstop, and as a pitcher, and he languished s a minor league mediocrity for years before winding up in prison, where he will remain until 2016.)



    Boras definitely impacts decisions.  However the new CBA changes a lot, I believe taking slot with he first few picks is a lot more attractive under this system than in the past.  It will put downward pressure on bonuses, but some guys will still get above slot.  

    But in this new system I doubt Appel turns down 5-7 million to go play in an independent league for a year.  

     
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    Re: Sox pick at #7

    In response to ctredsoxfanhugh's comment:

    In response to notin's comment:

     

    In response to ctredsoxfanhugh's comment:

     

    Chicago takes Appel or Grey, I'd put money on that.  Not a lt of money but some.

    Bryant not being #2 probably is the most certain thing that is for sure.  I could be wrong.....but I really really doubt all of Colorado, Minnesota, and Cleveland pass on Bryant.  Even Miami.  I'd be amazingly happy if he falls but very shocked.

     




    Appel or GRey could go 1-2, but Appel was a lock for 1 last year and fell to 8. 

     

     

    MLBTR started a series of articles where they interviewed players and asked them why they chose their agent.  The first player interviewed was Jay Bruce.   Bruce originally chose Boras as his agent, but was told in pre-draft interviews that his choice of agent would mean about 30% of the teams would not talk to him.  Eventually, Bruce dropped Boras.

     

    Boras really does have a significant impact on  drafting, much moreso than his overblown impact on free agency.  Stephen Drew was another Boras client who fell.  Anticipated as on of the top 2 picks in 2005, Drew dropped to 15.  The other top talent he was often paired with was Jered Weaver, but Weaver (another Boras client) fell to 12.   The Padres chose Matt Bush #1 overall, in in one of the worst draft picks ever.  But Bush was a local SS/RHP not represented by Boras, and the Padres thought they could sign him.  (They did.  He failed a shorstop, and as a pitcher, and he languished s a minor league mediocrity for years before winding up in prison, where he will remain until 2016.)

     



    Boras definitely impacts decisions.  However the new CBA changes a lot, I believe taking slot with he first few picks is a lot more attractive under this system than in the past.  It will put downward pressure on bonuses, but some guys will still get above slot.  

     

    But in this new system I doubt Appel turns down 5-7 million to go play in an independent league for a year.  



    I think all the Moran-Frasier number 1 rumors are just to get the top two pitchers to come down on their price. My guess is that Gray goes 1 and signs for about number 2 money and Appel goes 2 and signs for a half a mill under 2 money.

     

    As for our 7 pick, I am hoping for Moran and have no clue who the Sox will take. One thing about Frasier is his bad plate discipline. This is arguably the Sox number one focus both for hitters as well as pitchers. Taking Frasier would go against this, which would surprise me.

     

     
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    Re: Sox pick at #7

    In response to BMav's comment:

    In response to ctredsoxfanhugh's comment:

     

    In response to notin's comment:

     

    In response to ctredsoxfanhugh's comment:

     

    Chicago takes Appel or Grey, I'd put money on that.  Not a lt of money but some.

    Bryant not being #2 probably is the most certain thing that is for sure.  I could be wrong.....but I really really doubt all of Colorado, Minnesota, and Cleveland pass on Bryant.  Even Miami.  I'd be amazingly happy if he falls but very shocked.

     




    Appel or GRey could go 1-2, but Appel was a lock for 1 last year and fell to 8. 

     

     

    MLBTR started a series of articles where they interviewed players and asked them why they chose their agent.  The first player interviewed was Jay Bruce.   Bruce originally chose Boras as his agent, but was told in pre-draft interviews that his choice of agent would mean about 30% of the teams would not talk to him.  Eventually, Bruce dropped Boras.

     

    Boras really does have a significant impact on  drafting, much moreso than his overblown impact on free agency.  Stephen Drew was another Boras client who fell.  Anticipated as on of the top 2 picks in 2005, Drew dropped to 15.  The other top talent he was often paired with was Jered Weaver, but Weaver (another Boras client) fell to 12.   The Padres chose Matt Bush #1 overall, in in one of the worst draft picks ever.  But Bush was a local SS/RHP not represented by Boras, and the Padres thought they could sign him.  (They did.  He failed a shorstop, and as a pitcher, and he languished s a minor league mediocrity for years before winding up in prison, where he will remain until 2016.)

     



    Boras definitely impacts decisions.  However the new CBA changes a lot, I believe taking slot with he first few picks is a lot more attractive under this system than in the past.  It will put downward pressure on bonuses, but some guys will still get above slot.  

     

    But in this new system I doubt Appel turns down 5-7 million to go play in an independent league for a year.  

     



    I think all the Moran-Frasier number 1 rumors are just to get the top two pitchers to come down on their price. My guess is that Gray goes 1 and signs for about number 2 money and Appel goes 2 and signs for a half a mill under 2 money.

     

     

    As for our 7 pick, I am hoping for Moran and have no clue who the Sox will take. One thing about Frasier is his bad plate discipline. This is arguably the Sox number one focus both for hitters as well as pitchers. Taking Frasier would go against this, which would surprise me.

     




    I agree, except I think Appelgets at least slot.  I Disagree with Moran, his ceiling is low and some scouts put him as a future 1B.  If we picked top ten every year I'd love this pick but the Sox have only pIckes this high once since the 60's they want upside and NOT safety.

    Fraziers plate discipline is a concern (which is why I've been warming up to Meadows) but he's a high schooler.  All high schoolers come with that risk, there is no reasonwhatsoever to think he won't develop some level of plate discipline. To what degree he does can make him flame out in Portland, or he could be the next masher.  But a guy who has elite 80 power.....I don't think can pass up on the possibility of having two cost controlled monsters in the lineup. (Bogaerts Frazier)

    This is just my opinion, but rumor has it the sox absolutely love Stewart who is the epidemy of a risky high upside choice. So I'm pretty sure the Sox take ceiling over safety

     
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    Re: Sox pick at #7

    But I agree with the rumors on multiple #1 picks to bring the cost down.  I'm pretty sure it's down to 2 maybe 3 guys.  Grey seems to be the popular pick, and with good reason. 

     
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    Re: Sox pick at #7

    Two things Hugh, do you think Frasier stays in CF? And do you think he ends up with good plate discipline? If they both are no's, then how much upside does a 5-11 corner OF with crappy discipline "REALLY" have? Lets not forget he is old and filled out for a high school guy limiting his "upside" aswell.

    As for Moran's upside, dude is 6-4. Hasn't filled out yet. Super young for a Jr. Looks like Middlebrooks on defense to me. And great discipline is a great thing to build onto. What kind of upside would Joey Votto have as a 3rd basemen? Thats the upside I see.

     
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    Re: Sox pick at #7

    Frazier has crazy bat speed.  Very rarely do scouts slap an 80 on a prospect but that's his power grade.  He doesn't have to grow an inch, he can hit 40+ hr with his frame now.  Scouts have compared his bat speed to Harper. It's that good.  How much power he truly develops will depend on where his hit tool goes.  At 18 there is zero reason to believe he can't make improvments.  He also has a plus arm so if he can't stick in center he will play in right field very well.

    Is the risk there? Yes.  But having crappy plate discipline as a high schooler isn't the exception it's the norm.  Our far system is stacked, I don't want safe picks, I want upside.  The sox may never get another chance to pick a player with this high a ceiling for decades.  And FWIW risky hitters are much less risky than risky pitchers.  Frazier might not be the pick, but I'd doubt it's the risk that keeps him off the board.

     
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    Re: Sox pick at #7

    In response to ctredsoxfanhugh's comment:

    Frazier has crazy bat speed.  Very rarely do scouts slap an 80 on a prospect but that's his power grade.  He doesn't have to grow an inch, he can hit 40+ hr with his frame now.  Scouts have compared his bat speed to Harper. It's that good.  How much power he truly develops will depend on where his hit tool goes.  At 18 there is zero reason to believe he can't make improvments.  He also has a plus arm so if he can't stick in center he will play in right field very well.

    Is the risk there? Yes.  But having crappy plate discipline as a high schooler isn't the exception it's the norm.  Our far system is stacked, I don't want safe picks, I want upside.  The sox may never get another chance to pick a player with this high a ceiling for decades.  And FWIW risky hitters are much less risky than risky pitchers.  Frazier might not be the pick, but I'd doubt it's the risk that keeps him off the board.



    I disagree that its the norm, atleast from this years first round hitters in high school. Frasier seems to be the only below average discipline guy and he is far behind the three catchers, Meadows, Smith, and McKinney.

    He has great bat speed and outstanding power potential. But other then that, upside is questionable at best. I read he has an arm injury. But lets say he plays in RF, tell me the biggest upside corner OF you can come up with that has crappy plate discipline? Compare him to somebody you think he will be like?

     
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    Re: Sox pick at #7

    Honestly I hate comps.  But my point is you can't assume an 18 year old high schooler won't develop any plate discipline.  Its a certain he will! To what degree? That will determine what kinda MLB future he has.  But when of have crazy elite, MLB ELITE bat speed it is the norm to swing and not have an approach.  He doesn't need an approach because he is one of the best high school hitters in the country.  He's in almost everyone's top ten, and been discussed as a possible #1 for very good reasons. 

    Is there risk? Of course.  Will he crap out in double A? It's possible.  Bt there are risks with every pick.  But if you want a chance on a true pure power hitter the Frazier and Bryant are the best bets in this draft.

    All indications are the Sox want upside, and Moran has little and Frazier has a lot.  Now Moran may very well end up the better player.  But Frazier has more impact potential.

    If you want a comparison I'll go with this.  If Fraziers plate discipline marginally improves, but largely he remains a free swinger I can see I'm having a Mark Reynolds bat.  Lost of swing and miss, but insane power.  If the hit tool develops I think he can have a Josh Hamilton type bat.

    If he ends up more like a Reynolds his glove will still play in LF/RF.  while someone like Moran needs to stay at 3rd.  Many scouts believe he is destined to 1st which puts a lot of pressure on his bat, and many scouts project his power from anywhere from 10-15 maybe more.  I'm sorry but for a top ten pick I don't want a .280 15 HR first baseman I want a player with incredible upside and I'll take the risk. 

    I won't complain if we draft Moran, I think his it tool could end up being really good, it I want oh ceiling talent.  The most probable hoh ceiling talents that will be there for the Sox are: Stewart, Frazier,and Meadows.

     
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    Re: Sox pick at #7

    Frazier blows away the other high schoolers power, that has partially led to his low plate discipline.  That will be challenged in professional baseball, and perhaps he flames out.  But you can't rule out that he doesn't have it because he doesn't need it, there is no reason to believe he can't, of course that doesn't come without saying we shouldn't assume he will either....I will admit that. 

    This is a two way street.  Most high schooler can't throw strikes, at least compared to pro ballets and collegiate hitters.  When those hitters play pro ball they face pitchers that can spot a fastball and throw off speed pitches for strikes.  All of sudden they have to learn to hit those pitches and nt just always lay off them, sometimes they need to learn to be more aggressive.  

    Just like there is no reason to assume Frazier won't developable better approach I must admit that these skills should be honed in to some degree as well.  Which is why I've been starting to like someone like Austin Meadows just as much as I like Frazier.

    Ive heard Rumors that the Sox like Meadows better, but apparently Stewart is their first option.

     

     
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    Re: Sox pick at #7

    Lol unfortunately this conflict wont be resolved untill about 5 years from now.  

    Of course this is all a matter of preference.  Frazier could be better 10 years from now  but you analysis might be more optimal, and vis a versa. Like I said before, this year I'd really like to see the sox draft the kid with he largest ceiling...that's just my preference.

     
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    Re: Sox pick at #7

    In response to ctredsoxfanhugh's comment:

    Lol unfortunately this conflict can never be resolved untill about 5 years from now.



    First, let me admit you are in the majority and I am on an island by myself. That doesn't mean I am wrong though.:)

    When I looked at the last few years corner OF's with bad plate discipline, the only good player I found was Hamilton, so good find there. The next best player was Soriano though. Not many have been able to be effective without the discipline.

    "THEY" say that you can't teach plate discipline. Its either there or not. And what I fear is actually one of his positive traits in other areas...... he is hyper aggresive and hyper confident and just plain hyper. It might be in his genes. Anyway, I just fear looking at his early seasons and seeing 5-1 K/BB rates or even worse. I fear a right handed Josh Reddick with a wounded wing having to play LF and wasting his speed. Would feel a lot better if I heard his arm is fine.

     

    As for Moran's power, did you know he finished 4th in homers in the ACC, while playing in a very tough homers park. I think 10-15 homers is the absolute worst case scenerio. And low 20's is an accurate expectation. With 28-32 a year being the best case.

     
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    Re: Sox pick at #7

    In response to BMav's comment:

    In response to ctredsoxfanhugh's comment:

     

    Lol unfortunately this conflict can never be resolved untill about 5 years from now.

     



    First, let me admit you are in the majority and I am on an island by myself. That doesn't mean I am wrong though.:)

     

    When I looked at the last few years corner OF's with bad plate discipline, the only good player I found was Hamilton, so good find there. The next best player was Soriano though. Not many have been able to be effective without the discipline.

    "THEY" say that you can't teach plate discipline. Its either there or not. And what I fear is actually one of his positive traits in other areas...... he is hyper aggresive and hyper confident and just plain hyper. It might be in his genes. Anyway, I just fear looking at his early seasons and seeing 5-1 K/BB rates or even worse. I fear a right handed Josh Reddick with a wounded wing having to play LF and wasting his speed. Would feel a lot better if I heard his arm is fine.

     

    As for Moran's power, did you know he finished 4th in homers in the ACC, while playing in a very tough homers park. I think 10-15 homers is the absolute worst case scenerio. And low 20's is an accurate expectation. With 28-32 a year being the best case.



    I will admit I've had an inner conflict on taking the scoutingreports on Moran at face value.  I've heard the high floor low ceiling argument before and I don't know how much I trust that ou can just look at one guy and say he can get a lot better and then look at the next and say he can only maginally get better.   He has to get at least a little better.

    Players like josh Hamilton have a decent hit tool, and so he gets away with a bad approach at the plate.  You need two things to get away with a bad appoach at the plate; bat speed and a good hit tool.  When you have one you are Josh Reddick, when you have both, you have Josh Hamilon.  

    I don't believe that they can't take such a young player and not improve his approach.  Granted he will liKelyAlways be a free swinger; but he can learn to at least look for his pitches.  He has the bat speed, with a guy like Frazier it's all about his hit tool.  If his hit tool develops, then who cares about his approach if he can hit everything with his power he will be a force in the lineup.

     

    I dunno, the more I think about it, the more I think Austin Meadows might be a better pick.  He doesn't have the same Lowe potential as Frazier, but he is still a five tool player wo can hit 25ish if he develops.  Better current hit tool than Frazier and better defense. 

     
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