Re: Sox Sign Drew
posted at 12/19/2012 10:11 PM EST
In response to moonslav59's comment:
In response to Drewski5's comment:
I nthink we have agreed more than disagreed over the years.
In response to moonslav59's comment:
My point is that we have more talented hitters than Oak. So if they can finish fourth in the AL so can we. My main point is that we have a realistic shot at a WC berth in 2013.
You say the A's overachieved. I disagree. I think their offense is much better than many think they were (are), perhaps based on their overall stats.
The A's play in a huge park with a huge foul territory. If you look at their offense on the road, they finished 4th in MLB. FOURTH! This was done playing many more games than most teams in Seattle and LAA. That's over 50 more runs than the Sox did on the road. That's 10 more than the Rangers and Cards.
Yes, the A's have lost Gomes, Suzuki, Inge, Pennington and Drew, but they have added Nakajima (SS), Chris Young (OF), and Cespedes may grow into a bust-out year.
Well sir, I may not agree with what you say, but I'll defend , to my death, your right to say it.
Cespedes is a stud.
I am not so sure we even disagree so much on how good the Sox will be, but it is more about what we define as a legitimate chance at making or winning the playoffs.
If the Giants are 15:1 and the Sox are 30:1. To throw away 2013 for 2014 is a 0 sum game*
*Assuming that it will only take one season to get the 2014 sox as good as the 2013 giants, which is a reach.
30:1 is only 1:1 to better than 15:1. 15:1 are good odds. 1:1 is a coin flip.
My point: it takes a lot to outweigh the cost of a thrown away season. Especially in the new format when anyone can get in. I also dont think that a lot is gained by throwing away a season. Major league playing time, to me, is overrated. I dont think that you can take any prospect, give him adequate service time, and he'll become an MLB regular. I think that all prospects are individuals and the one's with elite talent will beome MLB regulars sooner or later. I think prospect success is far more correlated w/ prospect talent than MLB playing time.
I also think that the prospects are better off in the minors where they can exclusively focus on getting better. I dont think that gutting everything for prospects is the solution either. 1 thrown away year is a large cost. To trade everything of value for the future is throwing away 3 years and a cost that is going to be nearly impossible to recoup over the prime years of the prospects you are trading for.
I think that you're better off doing what the sox did. If they fall out of contention, they can always sell at the deadline. The chance that one of: Napoli, Vic reverts to their career averages is pretty good. if that happens, the player will have deadline trade value. Teams are desperate at the deadline.
Even S.Drew. If he's batting .260 , 9 HR w/avg D at the deadline, he will have trade value.
If we fall out of contention, then I am all for selling because this is probably the last year where we can expect Papi to mash. Our last year w/ Ells. Lester becomes much more expensive in 2014. So if it comes time to concede 2013, Im all for selling and planning to 2015. However, this is a huge cost. And I dont think the 2013 team is awful enough to go with this option w/out even giving 2013 a shot. Vic , Naps, and Dempster were all all-stars in their last healthy seasons. Ells in a walk year. De La Rosa, Webster, Lackey, Dempster have all been added as pitching options. Team isnt terrible.
And if they prove me wrong, probably one of Naps, Vic, Drew will have trade valu at the deadline. So will Ells. SO will Ortiz. Can always retool then. WIN/WIN