Re: Sox Sign Drew
posted at 12/18/2012 7:33 PM EST
In response to tom-uk's comment:
You dont know that about 2015. If stockpiling prospects is a sure fire recipe for success three years down the road, then how come teams who employ your strategy go through 10 yr + long drouts (Padres, Pirates...)... Trading everything of value for prospects is the EXACT strategy that these teams employ. Expecting different results is foolish.
((( Drew, I appreciate the discussion and the lack of insults, I do like your style. Now back to the battle. You have do draft well, and lock up your worthy talent. The Pirates and Padres failed on both fronts.
Of course, you use FA for the holes that crop up. Like losing Westmoreland. I advocate making trades like the Fla. Beckett deal (distressed sellers). SV and MN are worries for me in 2015. I know big names aren't making it to FA, but I'd spend the house of Sabathia types. A Beltre redemption one year type FA deal is a good idea IMO.)))))))))
You also dont know if 85 wins is the upside for this team next year. however, if we are out of contention early, we can always blow it up , gut the team for prospects and plan a massive rebuild then.
(((( Vegas agrees with me, that doesn't give you pause for thought)))))
However, at this point in time, Im not convinced that a core of Papi, Pedey, Lester , Buchh, Middlebrooks , Ells (in a walk year), Naps cant compete for 1 of 5 playoff spots. This is much better team than Oak was last year.
OAK 2012 ERA+
Milone 106 Parker 114 Colon 116 McCarthy 123 Griffin 130 Blackley 103
If we fall out of contention, blow it up, absolutely. However, we can still do that even with teh players we acquired. We may even be able to flip them for prospects.
Those ERA+ numbers are very heavily helped by ballpark. Also, a lot of those kids overperformed. Milone's K numbers do not match his ERA. McCarthy missed 1/3 the year.
I dont disagree re: the need to draft and develop. But what I dont get is the disdain for the acquisitions. Just because the kids wont be in the majors does not mean that we gave up on them. You advocate using FA to fill holes, and in my opinion, thats exactly what we did. If the signees do not perform, we can always flip them for middle tier prospects at the deadline. Teams are desperate and will take overpaid struggling performers at the deadline. If VIC or Naps rebound to career averages (which isnt a huge stretch at 31/32), they can become valuable tradebait.
Vegas odds do not surprise me. They see a team , who finished last in 2012, and failed to make noteworthy adds. That doesnt mean we should completely stand pat. If we are out of contention at the break, we can flip these players for prospects and rebuild then. Win/win.
The Phils got prospects for Vic when he was struggling last year. And if you think that the Sox overpay will limit the trade value of the players...well , consider how under budget they are. Right now , we have a 150M payroll. Our budget has always been the luxury tax. Maybe they are saving some cash in case they fall out of contention. In this event, they can eat some money and flip some vets for prospects. rebuild then.
I love Pedroia. I want to win another one while we have him in his prime. Dont forget that we still have a homegrown core. Pedey, Lester , Buchh, Ells, Middlebrook. Ells in a walk year could be a monster. Ortiz isnt getting any younger , Ells is gone after this year. This is the last year that we have Lester for cheap. Lets make a push to win in 2013. If it fails, the only thing we have lost is major league playing time for prospects. But to be honest, they are probably better off in the minors, in a relaxed environment where repetition and development is the focus.
2013 is not a bridge year. Ells in a walk year. One of Ortiz's last good years. Last year before Lester becomes moderately expensive. This is one of the last years where we are benefiting for the home grown core that won it all for us in 2007. This is one of the last years with the Red Sox team that we've seen over the last 5. Lets try to win before blowing it up. But as soon as we fall out of contention, blow it up.