In response to dannycater's comment:

Drew's career SLG % is 42 points higher than Marco's, so if Drew is a banjo guy, what would Scutaro be? 

Ukulele?

In response to Hfxsoxnut's comment:

He also fails to mention that Scutaro can no longer play shortstop, but facts rarely get in the way of a good whine on this board...

In response to jasko2248's comment:

amen to that brother

In response to tom-uk's comment:

You dont know that about 2015.  If stockpiling prospects is a sure fire recipe for success three years down the road, then how come teams who employ your strategy go through 10 yr + long drouts (Padres, Pirates...)...  Trading everything of value for prospects is the EXACT strategy that these teams employ.  Expecting different results is foolish.

The teams that are competitive year in / year out arent teams that rely exclusively on prospects.  They are teams that use all avenues to field the best team possible.  Our 2015 will probably contain a similar mix of players as our 2013 team.  Some prospects (Middlebrooks, Doubront), some home grown players who are now well paid MLB regulars (Pedey, Lester) and some external FA acquisitions.

You also dont know if 85 wins is the upside for this team next year.  however, if we are out of contention early, we can always blow it up , gut the team for prospects and plan a massive rebuild then.

However, at this point in time, Im not convinced that a core of Papi, Pedey, Lester , Buchh, Middlebrooks , Ells (in a walk year), Naps cant compete for 1 of 5 playoff spots.  This is much better team than Oak was last year.  If we fall out of contention, blow it up, absolutely.  However, we can still do that even with teh players we acquired.  We may even be able to flip them for prospects.

You dont know that about 2015.  If stockpiling prospects is a sure fire recipe for success three years down the road, then how come teams who employ your strategy go through 10 yr + long drouts (Padres, Pirates...)...  Trading everything of value for prospects is the EXACT strategy that these teams employ.  Expecting different results is foolish.

(((  Drew, I appreciate the discussion and the lack of insults, I do like your style.  Now back to the battle.   You have do draft well, and lock up your worthy talent.  The Pirates  and Padres failed on both fronts.

Of course, you use FA for the holes that crop up. Like losing Westmoreland.   I advocate making trades like the Fla. Beckett deal (distressed sellers).  SV and MN are worries for me in 2015.   I know big names aren't making it to FA, but I'd spend the house of Sabathia types.   A Beltre redemption one year type FA deal is a good idea IMO.)))))))))

You also dont know if 85 wins is the upside for this team next year.  however, if we are out of contention early, we can always blow it up , gut the team for prospects and plan a massive rebuild then.

(((( Vegas agrees with me, that doesn't give you pause for thought)))))

However, at this point in time, Im not convinced that a core of Papi, Pedey, Lester , Buchh, Middlebrooks , Ells (in a walk year), Naps cant compete for 1 of 5 playoff spots.  This is much better team than Oak was last year.  

OAK 2012 ERA+

Milone 106    Parker   114     Colon  116    McCarthy  123    Griffin   130     Blackley  103

 

If we fall out of contention, blow it up, absolutely.  However, we can still do that even with teh players we acquired.  We may even be able to flip them for prospects.

(Agreed)

[/QUOTE]

In response to tom-uk's comment:

[/QUOTE]

Those ERA+ numbers are very heavily helped by ballpark.  Also, a lot of those kids overperformed.  Milone's K numbers do not match his ERA.  McCarthy missed 1/3 the year.

I dont disagree re: the need to draft and develop.  But what I dont get is the disdain for the acquisitions.  Just because the kids wont be in the majors does not mean that we gave up on them.  You advocate using FA to fill holes, and in my opinion, thats exactly what we did.  If the signees do not perform, we can always flip them for middle tier prospects at the deadline.  Teams are desperate and will take overpaid struggling performers at the deadline.  If VIC or Naps rebound to career averages (which isnt a huge stretch at 31/32), they can become valuable tradebait.

Vegas odds do not surprise me.  They see a team , who finished last in 2012, and failed to make noteworthy adds.  That doesnt mean we should completely stand pat.  If we are out of contention at the break, we can flip these players for prospects and rebuild then.  Win/win.

The Phils got prospects for Vic when he was struggling last year.  And if you think that the Sox overpay will limit the trade value of the players...well , consider how under budget they are.  Right now , we have a 150M payroll.  Our budget has always been the luxury tax.  Maybe they are saving some cash in case they fall out of contention.  In this event, they can eat some money and flip some vets for prospects. rebuild then.

I love Pedroia.  I want to win another one while we have him in his prime.  Dont forget that we still have a homegrown core.  Pedey, Lester , Buchh, Ells, Middlebrook.  Ells in a walk year could be a monster.  Ortiz isnt getting any younger , Ells is gone after this year.  This is the last year that we have Lester for cheap.  Lets make a push to win in 2013.  If it fails, the only thing we have lost is major league playing time for prospects.  But to be honest, they are probably better off in the minors, in a relaxed environment where repetition and development is the focus. 

2013 is not a bridge year.  Ells in a walk year.  One of Ortiz's last good years.  Last year before Lester becomes moderately expensive.  This is one of  the last years where we are benefiting for the home grown core that won it all for us in 2007.  This is one of the last years with the Red Sox team that we've seen over the last 5.  Lets try to win before blowing it up.  But as soon as we fall out of contention, blow it up.

 

I would probably agree that $142M of bad money (money spent on crahp) spread over 7 years may be worse than $160M+ spreead out over 3 years to 8 players, but come on, we are spending about $77M this year on this... 

$39M/3 Victorino

$39M/3 Napoli

$26.5M/2 Dempster 

$26M/2 Papi 

$10M/2 Gomes

$9.5M/1 S Drew

$6.2M/2 D Ross

$4.25M/1 Uehara

Yeah, it's only "short term", but in 2014 we will be paying about $60M for SV/MN/DO/RD/JG/DR. That's an average of $10M per scrub.

[/QUOTE]

you do realize that Dempster, Victorino, Napoli, and Dempster have all made teh all-star team within the last 3 years , right?>

Yes, but be truthful, how many of these guys realistically have a chance to make the 2014 Allstar game?

Moon, we brough in very solid MLB players.  Dont let this board jade you.

I was against these deals before I read a word from this board. Nothing said here has changed my opinion one bit, except that someone pointed out that we can trade these guys tahis July and get some nice prospects.

 Most people hating our acquisitions hate them for one reason.  They love watching homegrown youngsters come into their own.  They dont hate the moves for baseball reasons.  They hate them because they would rather watch prospects.

Yes, I get that, but that is not my angle and never was. Most of my plans involved trading for prospects and trading some away.

This isnt crap.  Its a bunch of very good players.  Its just that those players are over 30. 

OK, maybe they aren't "crahp", but it was a "halfway effort" all the same.

 

If Napoli stays and ends up at first - even though his health dictates he should be a DH... oh wait we have Ortiz already don't we.

And...

 

Iggy is sent to the minors with Drew as the full-time SS....

 

Our defense is going to be terrible.

"2013 is not a bridge year.  Ells in a walk year.  One of Ortiz's last good years.  Last year before Lester becomes moderately expensive.  This is one of  the last years where we are benefiting for the home grown core that won it all for us in 2011.  This is one of the last years with the Red Sox team that we've seen over the last 5.  Lets try to win before blowing it up.  But as soon as we fall out of contention, blow it up..............................................           I aggre 2013 shouldn't have been a bridge year  However with the players we picked up this year my guess it will be blown up around the all star break.

How do things look going forward? Drew, Ellsbury, Saltalamacchia and Uehara all come off the books, while Lester's number would take a jump to $13 million if the Red Sox picked up their team option on him. That leaves more than $150 million in payroll commitments already on the books for 2014, including the arbitration-eligibles.

 

[/QUOTE]

And the luxury tax threshhold will be 190M.  So that gives us a nice 40M to spend.  Also, this 2013 FA class isnt a one year thing.  Teams just arent letting their elite players hit free agency anymore.

 

$150M + $10M retirement contribution= $160M (Not sure if he counted our payments to LAD). At today's prices for FAs, how are we going to fill in the slots of Ellsbury, Drew, Salty, and Breslow for $25-30M.

As for the 2014 FA class being as weak as this year's, maybe maybe not. Here is a list of some of the possible 2014 FAs:

SP: Halladay, Floyd, Garza, Lincecum,  Shields, E Santana,Wainwright,  Carpenter, Haren,  de la Rosa, Jiminez, J Johnson, Kuroda, C Lewis, Hudson,  Burnett,  Nolasco, W Rodriguez, J vargas, ...

Closer: Hanrahan...

C: McCann, Ruiz...

1B: Morales, Morneau, Morse...

SS: Drew, Furcal, Peralta, Ryan...

3B: Young, Prado...

OF: C Hart, Granderson, Pence, C Gomez, Coo, Beltran, N Cruz, Francoeur ... 

 

OAK 2012 ERA+

Milone 106    Parker   114     Colon  116    McCarthy  123    Griffin   130     Blackley  103

 

 

Those ERA+ numbers are very heavily helped by ballpark.  Also, a lot of those kids overperformed.  Milone's K numbers do not match his ERA.  McCarthy missed 1/3 the year.

 

Drew, ERA+ is a park- adjusted ERA.

Another view...

2012  A's vs Sox starters (70+ IP)...

A's        tERA  SIERA

Colon     3.78  4.19

Black.    4.26  4.24

Parker   4.32  4.15

McCart   4.52  4.25

Griffin   4.31   3.94

Milone   4.63   4.02

 

Red Sox

Lester   4.90  3.94

Buchh   5.32  4.39

Beck     4.94  4.28

Doubr   5.26  3.84

Cook    6.08  4.73

with Iggy and pedro at ss, i have no idea why we signed this broken down genetic retread for 10 million dollars..they should have given the money to Sandy Hook kids for survivor scholarships...that way it could havfe done some good

 

i am literally going to lose my mind if i have to watch drewII start simply because ben signed him foolishly...we dont need another Punto

In response to moonslav59's comment:

you do realize that Dempster, Victorino, Napoli, and Dempster have all made teh all-star team within the last 3 years , right?>

Yes, but be truthful, how many of these guys realistically have a chance to make the 2014 Allstar game?

Moon, we brough in very solid MLB players.  Dont let this board jade you.

I was against these deals before I read a word from this board. Nothing said here has changed my opinion one bit, except that someone pointed out that we can trade these guys tahis July and get some nice prospects.

 Most people hating our acquisitions hate them for one reason.  They love watching homegrown youngsters come into their own.  They dont hate the moves for baseball reasons.  They hate them because they would rather watch prospects.

Yes, I get that, but that is not my angle and never was. Most of my plans involved trading for prospects and trading some away.

This isnt crap.  Its a bunch of very good players.  Its just that those players are over 30. 

OK, maybe they aren't "crahp", but it was a "halfway effort" all the same.

 

[/QUOTE]

I would say all 3 have a realistic chance of making the all-star team in 2013 because all 3 were all star caliber (at least) in their last healthy seasons.  I do not know why you are writing off 2013, when we have 3 potential all stars + Ells in a walk year + Ortiz + pedroia.

Dempster, De La Rosa, Lackey, Webster are all pitching acquisitions.  So we have added help there.

In response to georom4's comment:

THey wont play him if he struggles.  Thats the beauty of a 1 yr deal. I agree that there were better places to spend 10M; however, you dont have to worry about Farrell forcing him into the lineup when he is on a 1 yr deal. 

In response to moonslav59's comment:

Thanks for the info.  Still, that staff overperformed/benefited from luck.  Bartolo COlon is Bartolo Colon.  McCarthy will always be a 10-15 starts/yr guy (bum shoulder).  Milone overperformed greatly. His peripheral stats (WHIP, K/9) suggest that he wasnt as good as his ERA indicates. Parker had control issues. 

Staff wasnt great.  I credit the season to the leadership of Coco.

I just hope we dont do something beyond dumb like turn De La Rosa into a reliever.

In response to moonslav59's comment:

you do realize that Dempster, Victorino, Napoli, and Dempster have all made teh all-star team within the last 3 years , right?>

Yes, but be truthful, how many of these guys realistically have a chance to make the 2014 Allstar game?

Moon, we brough in very solid MLB players.  Dont let this board jade you.

I was against these deals before I read a word from this board. Nothing said here has changed my opinion one bit, except that someone pointed out that we can trade these guys tahis July and get some nice prospects.

 Most people hating our acquisitions hate them for one reason.  They love watching homegrown youngsters come into their own.  They dont hate the moves for baseball reasons.  They hate them because they would rather watch prospects.

Yes, I get that, but that is not my angle and never was. Most of my plans involved trading for prospects and trading some away.

This isnt crap.  Its a bunch of very good players.  Its just that those players are over 30. 

OK, maybe they aren't "crahp", but it was a "halfway effort" all the same.

 

[/QUOTE]


I think we saw this year that teams want to win now.  Every trade we;ve seen, we've seen the team acquiring MLB talent getting blasted. "Gave up too many prospects."  Every free agent acquisition, we;ve seen the media scream overpay.

I think what we are seeing is that teams have a lot more money these days and no longer want to take a chance on a handful of maybes.  Teams are going out and paying proven ML players.  The trade value of prospects has plummeted.  Two top 5 prospects + for Dickey.  A haul of prospects for Shields.  LAD threw in their two best prospects when Ben prob would have made the deal for salary relief alone.

I dont think we could build a team around trades due to the decreasing value of prospects.  However, I would have preferred to trade for a young(ish) / elite corner outfielder.

But hey, Ben has a little Theo in him , and is prob going to overrate the kids.  This combined with the fact that he would have had to trade the best of them for an elite player, probably swayed him to look towards VIC instead.

Personally, I would have signed Vic, Naps, Dempster.  And traded for an elite slugging CO instead of spending of Gomes.  So I give Ben a B and agree that it wasnt a full effort.  But I tell you one thing, we are .500 or better at the deadline, we will be in a position then to bring in a slugger.  Maybe Stanton will be available then.

I would say all 3 have a realistic chance of making the all-star team in 2013 because all 3 were all star caliber (at least) in their last healthy seasons.  I do not know why you are writing off 2013, when we have 3 potential all stars + Ells in a walk year + Ortiz + pedroia.

Vegas has us at 25:1. That's 4 times the 1% chance I gave us, so maybe I am being pessimistic, but to me, a 4% chance is not considered a "legitimate chance at a ring" which has been my contention all along.

Dempster, De La Rosa, Lackey, Webster are all pitching acquisitions.  So we have added help there.

We lost our best 2007, 2009, & 2011 starter.

Best ERA from 2011-2012:

Beckett  3.82

Lester   4.17

Buch      4.24

Doubr   4.86

 

There is some hope, but I think I had higher hopes last year at this time.

In response to Drewski5's comment:

Maybe-maybe not, but they have Brett Anderson returning. This guy is "Buttah"!

In response to moonslav59's comment:

Fair, but keep in mind that Vegas odds are based primarily on last year.  That number seems off to me.  In the old playoff format, sure.  But w 5 playoff teams, mediocre teams hang around for a LONG time.  Anyone can get in.  Especially a team w/ the prospects / payroll room to buy at the deadline.  All that matters is getting in. 

Although, getting past the Angels and Tigers will be tough.  Darn powerhouses.

25:1 isnt a terrible bet on the sox. 

This post has been removed.

In response to EnchiladaT's comment:

Drew is average defensively; however, I agree that we would have been better off w/ Iggy.  We will have elite D at CF and RF, which will help a ton.  Pedey is solid.  First base defense isn't that important.  LF at Fenway is easy to play...All of this being considered I'd say bad, but not terrible.  C-

In response to moonslav59's comment:

Most talented pitcher on the staff for sure.  However, I was talking about the 2012 A's and using them as an example to show that the Sox have a realistic chance of making the playoffs in 2013.  Assist to the new 5 team format.