sox to compete in 2013

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from BMav. Show BMav's posts

    Re: sox to compete in 2013

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

     

    If you think Salty is bad on defense and handling the staff, check out Mike's record.

    [/QUOTE]

    Lets check the record....If you combine the Baseball Refference and Fangraphs fielding ratings, Mike Napoli rates as the better defensive catcher both in career numbers aswell as counting the last two seasons. When you consider that Napoli has caught more games, he should have an even higher total, because they are both negatives and more negative games would mean higher negative totals....

    Career combined totals for defense of BR and FG...

    Salt -35.1
    Napoli -32.6

    Last two seasons.....

    Salt -13.3
    Napoli -1.7

    According to those two services, Napoli is the better defensive catcher.

    Napoli also leads in throwing out base runners both career wise aswell as in both the last year or last two years.

    As for CERA, both stink. However, Salt has never beaten his team ERA totals. Napoli has twice and even came closer to beating it a third time then Salt ever has.

    As for winning, Napoli has helped his team make the playoffs 5 of 7 years. Salt has never made the playoffs. And most everybody knows the absolutely horrible winning percentage Salt has had with the Red Sox in the regular season.

    So exactly how is Saltalamacchia the better defensive catcher again?

    Edit--PS---His career OPS splits are 845-911. Hitting .845 in your career against righties isn't half bad.

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from pumpsie-green. Show pumpsie-green's posts

    Re: sox to compete in 2013

    In response to Joebreidey's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Buchholtz, Lester, and Doubront had ERAs of 4.56, 4.82, and 4.86 respectively. Bard is a lost cause until he proves otherwise. It illogical to expect that those three, now the leaders of our staff, will all improve significantly and remain healthy.

    So Lester, who has had 31 or more starts 5 years in a row, is unlikely to be healthy?

    [/QUOTE]


    You missed the point. Some of those three might be healthy, and some might improve, but all three are not going to improve AND be healthy and anchor our staff the way we need them to. They just aren't that good.

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from mef429. Show mef429's posts

    Re: sox to compete in 2013

    In response to pumpsie-green's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to Joebreidey's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Buchholtz, Lester, and Doubront had ERAs of 4.56, 4.82, and 4.86 respectively. Bard is a lost cause until he proves otherwise. It illogical to expect that those three, now the leaders of our staff, will all improve significantly and remain healthy.

    So Lester, who has had 31 or more starts 5 years in a row, is unlikely to be healthy?

    [/QUOTE]


    You missed the point. Some of those three might be healthy, and some might improve, but all three are not going to improve AND be healthy and anchor our staff the way we need them to. They just aren't that good.

    [/QUOTE]

    thats where your wrong.. who predicted lester to pitch the way he did last season? no one!

    our pitching staff has been in decline since the day farrell left and to the naysayers who think farrells presence won't help them belong in a mental ward. it was no coincidence. he will help lester, buch, doobie and even lackey (who has been pitching hurt for awhile now. it will be nice to see what he can do when healthy).


    this season has really imprinted the importance of pitching on me.. i used to think if was about offense offense offense. but now im riding the pitching bus. our rotation can be elite like it once was when farrell was here. the core of that elite staff is still in place along with new additions like doubront and a healthy lackey. add in another solid started via trade/FA with the prospects we got in the meda-deal as reserves and our rotation can pitch us into the postseason and beyond.

     

    to say nothing about the offense which i expect to produce more (pending good moves are made). but it is hard to say at the moment with no many questions

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from mef429. Show mef429's posts

    Re: sox to compete in 2013

    heres what i think our roster will look like in 2013

     

    C - lava/salty

    1st - napoli/laroche (swisher used to be included in this list but after watching his anemic postseason im totally over it). an outside the box option includes going after david wright. the mets are going nowhere and may be willing to deal him in return for some decent prospects

    2nd - pedey

    SS - ciriaco (peralta or stephen drew could be here too pending their team options are not picked up.) scutaro??

    3rd - the DREADNAUGHT WMB

    OF - ellsbury (if ellsbury gets dealt go after bourne)

    OF - Ross

    OF - torii hunter/shin soo-choo (possibly shane victorino)

     

    we need at least one more good starter, 2 just to be safe

    dan haren/edwin jackson

    kyle lohse/peavey

    unless BC trades for a starter in which case the list is innumerable so its not worth mentioning

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: sox to compete in 2013

    According to those two services, Napoli is the better defensive catcher.

    Metrics for catchers are extremely flawed. Even when I was dead set against Salty over the past winter, I never used those metrics to judge him by. I used CERA per individual pitcher as compared to the other catcher(s), and the total of PBs and WPs per inning with adjustments made for catching Wake. Salty was horrible defensively last year by any standard, metric or personal observation.

    The 2012 season started off badly for Salty in the CERA area, but he showed marked improvement after April 25th. Salty showed a remarkable improvement in handling our shaky staff that included Lester and Beckett with significant loss of velocity, Bard and Aceves out of familiar roles, and no Paps.

    Anyone who did not recognize the improvement was not watching the games closely enough. On the Salty thread, I broke down his CERA before 4/25/12 and after. There was a huge shift. I also broke down Salty's CERA per pitcher vs the rest of the catchers combined, and Salty compared very well or very close to thye others with most of the pitchers that had significant sample sizes. CERA is often misused the way you cited it. catchers catch different pitchers at various rates, so CERA should be used pitcher by pitcher.

     

    Napoli also leads in throwing out base runners both career wise aswell as in both the last year or last two years.

    1) It's an over-rated stat.

    2) SBs are on the pitcher more often than the catcher.

     

    As for CERA, both stink. However, Salt has never beaten his team ERA totals. Napoli has twice and even came closer to beating it a third time then Salt ever has.

    Napoli was blown away by Mathis for so many years, it was obvious why the Angels tried their hardest not to play Mike at catcher. Injuries to Mathis was a big factor in the reason Mike even caught at all in LA. Yes, he shockingly had a better team CERA with Texas, but look closer at the pitcher by pitcher numbers, and look who the other catcher was. 

    harness did an in depth study on Napoli-pitcher by pitcher- over several seasons in LA. The differentials were consistently astounding.

    As for winning, Napoli has helped his team make the playoffs 5 of 7 years. Salt has never made the playoffs. And most everybody knows the absolutely horrible winning percentage Salt has had with the Red Sox in the regular season.

    So exactly how is Saltalamacchia the better defensive catcher again?

    Tell me again why the Angels benched Napoli in order to play a .200 hitting Mathis.

    I choose to value Salty's growth. I am not judging Salty on his pre-Aporil 25th numbers. He's at a typical age where catchers start getting better. VTek had horrible numbers at Salty's age and even up to age 29-30. Napoli will not get better.

    Edit--PS---His career OPS splits are 845-911. Hitting .845 in your career against righties isn't half bad.

    My guess is that Napoli's most recent 4 year splits are a better predictor than his career numbers, but your point here has merit.

    2009-2012:  .935 to .838 (Very significant spread here)

    .838 is very good, but much of these numbers were as a DH or 1Bman.

     

    Napoli will want multiple year and big bucks. He will get it. I hope we don't make this mistake.

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from mef429. Show mef429's posts

    Re: sox to compete in 2013

    if we sign napoli he doesn't HAVE to play catcher.... hell, we have lava and salty. we don't need 3.

     

    we do however need a first baseman. he can play first. its not a physically demanding position unlike catcher. if papi can play first base napoli can too. thats where he should play for us in 2013

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from BMav. Show BMav's posts

    Re: sox to compete in 2013

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

     

    Tell me again why the Angels benched Napoli in order to play a .200 hitting Mathis.

    I choose to value Salty's growth. I am not judging Salty on his pre-Aporil 25th numbers. He's at a typical age where catchers start getting better. VTek had horrible

    [/QUOTE]


    I saw atleast some of the CERA stats you showed with Salt after April 25th[kind of a cherry picked date, but no biggie] and the one thing I kind of remember from it was that although Salt was much better in his CERA,  Shopach had even better numbers. In other words, everybody had dramatically improved. Which makes the improvment of Salt suspect. Could you please give us the CERA's of both Salt and Shopach with the Red Sox after April 25th? I would love to see them again.

     

    As for the Angels and Napoli, it should be noted that between 2006 and 2010, both Napoli and Mathis played with the Angels. Both starting their careers in 2006. Napoli started 62 more games then Mathis. And in the playoffs, Napoli started 10 games to Mathis 6.

     

    Napoli's manager was a catcher. He probably preffered the better defensive catcher more then most. And Mathis is a very good defensive catcher. Yet Napoli still caught more. And helped them win. And helped Texas win.

     

    I am not saying Napoli is a good defensive catcher. I am just saying based on everything I have seen from stats to my own eyes watching them catch, that I slightly prefer Napoli. And I would like Saltalamacchia gone.

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: sox to compete in 2013

    I saw atleast some of the CERA stats you showed with Salt after April 25th[kind of a cherry picked date, but no biggie] and the one thing I kind of remember from it was that although Salt was much better in his CERA,  Shopach had even better numbers. In other words, everybody had dramatically improved.

     

    Wrong. Salty improved after 4/25 way more than Shoppach did, but yes, the much more experienced Shoppach remained slightly better even after 4/25.  Not "everybody had dramatically improved": Lava was horrible and way worse than the  pre or post 4/25 Salty numbers.

    It was a "cherry-picked" date, but that was when Salty started showing vast improvement. Expand to the full season and compare his PBs and WPs to 2011... night & day.

     

    Which makes the improvment of Salt suspect. Could you please give us the CERA's of both Salt and Shopach with the Red Sox after April 25th? I would love to see them again.

     

    I'll look for them and get back to this post.

     

    As for the Angels and Napoli, it should be noted that between 2006 and 2010, both Napoli and Mathis played with the Angels. Both starting their careers in 2006. Napoli started 62 more games then Mathis. And in the playoffs, Napoli started 10 games to Mathis 6.

     

    Napoli's manager was a catcher. He probably preffered the better defensive catcher more then most. And Mathis is a very good defensive catcher. Yet Napoli still caught more. And helped them win. And helped Texas win.

    The only reason he caught more were due to injuries to Mathis. Napoli blew Mathis away on offense, and if he was indeed a decent defensive catcher, he'd have played way more than Mathis.

    Point well taken that Mathis is a very good defensive catcher, but the offensive differential was not enough for LA to make him the FT catcher. They ended up trading him away.

    You used winning % to bash Salty, but look at this:

    Yr  LA Win%  Napoli Win% (Gms/GS'd)

    '07  .580     .533/.559

    '08  .617     .564/.592

    '09  .599    .570/.620

    '10  .494    .464/.465

    The LA numbers include Mike's low numbers, so the differential between Mike's win% and anyone but Mike's win% is astounding. The CERA pitcher by pitcher differentials were equally astounding.

     

    I am not saying Napoli is a good defensive catcher. I am just saying based on everything I have seen from stats to my own eyes watching them catch, that I slightly prefer Napoli. And I would like Saltalamacchia gone.

     

    We can agree to diagree, but I feel Napoli is not currently better than Salty in almost every category of a catcher's defensive skill set with the possible exception of throwing our base stealers.

     
  9. This post has been removed.

     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: sox to compete in 2013

    Here are some numbers from the Salty thread...

    CERA 2012:

    Salty 4/2011-4/25/12: 953 Inn 4.88 CERA

    Salty 4/26/12-10/3/12: 774.2 Inn 4.43 CERA

     

    Shopp up to 4/25/2012: 63 Inn 4.14 CERA

    Shopp 4/26/12-trade: 293.1 Inn 3.93 CERA

     

    Lava 4/2011-4/25/12: 26.2 Inn 4.39 CERA

    Lava 4/26/12-10/3/12: 229 Inn 5.74 CERA

    As you can see, Salty did improve his CERA after 4/25/12 by 0.45 even though our staff is much worse than the one we had last year.

    Note: CERA should not be used in this manner to make definitive judgements, since some catchers have larger or smaller sample sizes with the various pitchers. I will give a pitcher by pitcher breakdown soon.

    The 2012 season totals:

    Salty   852 inn  4.82 CERA

    Shopp 370 inn  3.77 CERA

    Lava   219 inn  5.75 CERA

     

    The only way CERA should be used is to compare catchers from the same team against each other by looking pitcher by pitcher and comparing the numbers while noting large sample size differences and/or tiny sample sizes.

     fromLet's look pitcher by pitcher for the final 2012 (Inn) CERA (note: some tiny sample sizes): 

     with    all              Salty          Shopp        Lava

    Lester    4.82   (107) 5.62    (49) 3.70     (49) 4.01

    Buch     4.56      (76) 6.30    (78) 3.28     (36) 3.79

    Doub      4.86  (124) 4.95    (32) 4.18      (5) 7.20

    Beck      5.23    (58) 4.47    (58) 5.46     (11) 7.94

    Cook      5.65    (77) 5.28     (5) 3.60      (12) 8.76

    Aceves   5.36   (53) 4.92    (15) 4.11     (16) 8.04

    Morales  3.77   (52) 2.96    (22) 4.91      (3) 6.79

    Bard       6.22   (36) 5.05    (21) 5.91      (2) 27.00

    Atch       1.58   (37) 2.41        (9) 0.00      (4) 0.00

    Padilla    4.50   (26) 5.47    (20) 2.75      (4) 6.75

    Melan     6.20   (26) 9.35       (8) 2.35    (11) 1.59

    Dice-K    8.28  (27) 5.93      (5) 7.20     (13) 13.50

    Taz         1.43  (31) 1.40     (12) 1.50    (12) 1.50

    Albers    2.29   (22) 2.86   (17) 1.56

    Miller     3.35   (23) 3.91     (11) 3.97     (6) 0.00

    Mort      3.21   (29) 2.79       (7) 2.70     (6) 2.84

    Breaking it down:

    4- Salty way worse than the norm: Lester, Buchholtz, Padilla, Melancon

    3- Salty worse than the norm: Atchison, Miller, Albers

    1- Salty worse but close: Doubront

    1- Salty better but close: Tazawa

    4- Salty better than norm: Beckett, Cook, Aceves, Mortensen

    3- Salty way better than the norm: Morales, Bard, Dice-K

    Salty ended up better with 8 pitchers and worse with 8 pitchers.

    Better than I expected when the season began.

    Salty's 4.43 CERA after April 25, 2012 is really quite remarkable when you consider the staff we had this year, which included pitchers pitching out of their comfort roles (Aceves & Bard), pitchers losing velocity or pitch variety (Lester, Beckett and others), pitchers getting hurt (Bailey, Buch, Tazawa, Dice-K, Lackey, Hill, Padilla, Atchison and others), and pitchers getting traded (Beckett, Albers & Bowden).

    Salty has improved on handling the staff.

    Salty has greatly reduced his Passed Balls and Wild Pitches.

    Salty placed about in the middle the pack in catcher OPS (.742) & 3rd in C'er HRs.         (BTW, a .742 OPS is better than 22 teams' catcher OPS.)

    His bad CS% is partially the staff's fault and only amounted to about 8-9 more SBs than the league norm over the season.

    Salty is still about 2 or more years younger than VTek was when he became the CERA master (at about age 30-31).

    Those who pick on Salty have no idea just how bad MLb catching is these days. Salty is a plus over most team's total catching output. He is not a weakness, but has had more posts bashing him than he deserved.

     

     

    Some key final numbers on Salty and the state of MLB catching these days:

    Salty's .742 OPS ranks him 14th out of the top 30 ML catchers by PAs in 2012.                

    9th in SLG .454. 

    25th in OBP at .288. 

    3rd in HRs with 25.

    However, when you compare these numbers vs MLB team catching numbers:

    Salty's...

    .742 OPS is better than 21 team catcher OPS.

    .454 SLG is better than 25 team catcher SLG.

    His .288 OBP is actually better than 5 team OBP and .001 away from it being 6 teams.

    Folks, 13 teams have a team catcher BA below .228! 16 are below .240.

     

    On fielding:

    Fangraphs has a fielding ranking involved in their value determination. Salty placed  13th out of 30 with a -0.3 number.

    Only 10 catchers with 600+ innings caught have less Passed Balls than Salty, and 4 of then caught significantly less innings than Salty's 852.

    Only 8 catchers allowed less than 23 WPs this year, and 5 of them had less innings.

    As bad as Salty's CS% was this year, there were 4 catchers worse than him and several more pretty close. 

     

    CERA:

    Improved his CERA by about 0.40 after April 25th for where it was from 2011 up to 4/25/12. This with several pitchers hurt, traded or out of their comfort roles.

     

    On another note:

    Sox players Late & Close with 50+ PAs:

    1) Pedey  .786

    2) Ross    .766

    3) Salty   .725

    4) AGon  .702

    5) Papi   .682

    6) Aviles .604

    7) Ells     .544

    8) Nava  .479

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from parhunter55. Show parhunter55's posts

    Re: sox to compete in 2013

    In response to ThefourBs' comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to TrotterNixon's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    the core of our players is still intact

    Name te core player that are still intact?

    Pedroia, Ortiz, and who else?

    The players have been The Problem.

    [/QUOTE]


    I consider Middlebrooks to be a core player.

    Along with Buchholz, Lester, Dubront and Bard

    Now, shut up.

    [/QUOTE]


    This is too funny...Pesky arguing with a smaller version of himself.

    But I agree with thefourBs.  Buchholz, Lester and Middlebrooks are part of that core.  Doubront and Bard I am not so sure.  I think Doubront and Bard might be better off used as trade bait for a quality 1Bman like Ike Davis of the Mets.

    In my mind, I firmly believe that the Sox are 3 FA signings away from being in the playoffs in 2013 (5 if you consider re-signing Ortiz and Ross to be FA signings).  Sign Hunter, Haren and Peavy.  Install Iglesias at SS and trade Doubront for Davis and you have the offense, defense and pitching to beat anyone in the ALE.

    Ells, Pedroia, Ortiz, Middlebrooks, Hunter, Ross/Kalish, Davis, Lavarnway/Salty, Iglesias.

    Lester, Haren, Buchholz, Peavy, Lackey, De La Rosa

    Bailey, Tazawa, Mealancon, Miller, Morales, Hill, Mortenson and Bard

    The bench is still a bit thin, but that should be cheap enough to fix.

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from seabeachfred. Show seabeachfred's posts

    Re: sox to compete in 2013

    In response to parhunter55's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to ThefourBs' comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to TrotterNixon's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    the core of our players is still intact

    Name te core player that are still intact?

    Pedroia, Ortiz, and who else?

    The players have been The Problem.

    [/QUOTE]


    I consider Middlebrooks to be a core player.

    Along with Buchholz, Lester, Dubront and Bard

    Now, shut up.

    [/QUOTE]


    This is too funny...Pesky arguing with a smaller version of himself.

    But I agree with thefourBs.  Buchholz, Lester and Middlebrooks are part of that core.  Doubront and Bard I am not so sure.  I think Doubront and Bard might be better off used as trade bait for a quality qBman like Ike Davis of the Mets.

    In my mind, I firmly believe that the Sox are 3 FA signings away from being in the playoffs in 2013 (5 if you consider re-signing Ortiz and Ross to be FA signings).  Sign Hunter, Haren and Peavy.  Install Iglesias at SS and trade Doubront for Davis and you have the offense, defense and pitching to beat anyone in the ALE.

    Ells, Pedroia, Ortiz, Middlebrooks, Hunter, Ross/Kalish, Davis, Lavarnway/Salty, Iglesias.

    Lester, Haren, Buchholz, Peavy, Lackey, De La Rosa

    Bailey, Tazawa, Mealancon, Miller, Morales, Hill, Mortenson and Bard

    The bench is still a bit thin, but that should be cheap enough to fix.

    [/QUOTE]


    This could work Parhunter even with a weak hitting Iglesias at shortstop, provided we have a good pinch hitter or two for him in late close games because he is going to most likely rename the Mendoza Line.  Peavy I like a lot and Haren should make a nice comeback--and Davis and Hunter would be great additions.  That team could compete but again I wonder if Cherington has the guts, balls and smarts to pull this off.

     

     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from parhunter55. Show parhunter55's posts

    Re: sox to compete in 2013

    Even if Haren pitches as poorly as he did last season, he is still better than anything the Sox had in their rotation.  If you have Haren as your #4 starter you have a damned good rotation, and the Sox will only go as far as their rotation takes them.

    I am not a big Iglesias fan...in my mind he is just filling in until Bogaerts arrives for good.  But his bat would not kill the offense if the rest of the lineup was as deep as I propose, and--as you say--they have good PHs off the bench (and Ciriaco to come in to play the field).

     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from BMav. Show BMav's posts

    Re: sox to compete in 2013

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Here are some numbers from the Salty thread...

    Salty 4/26/12-10/3/12: 774.2 Inn 4.43 CERA

    Shopp 4/26/12-trade: 293.1 Inn 3.93 CERA

     [/QUOTE]

     

    Thats what I kind of remembered. Thought at the time that it kind of hurt your argument. If you don't think so, thats cool.

     

    [/QUOTE]

     with    all              Salty          Shopp        Lava

    Lester    4.82   (107) 5.62    (49) 3.70     (49) 4.01

    Buch     4.56      (76) 6.30    (78) 3.28     (36) 3.79

    Doub      4.86  (124) 4.95    (32) 4.18      (5) 7.20

    Beck      5.23    (58) 4.47    (58) 5.46     (11) 7.94

    [/QUOTE]

     

    So the 4 key pitchers combined with the largest sample sizes had a much easier time overall pitching to Shopach. With the two key starters for us next year having huge issues with Salt, though Lavarnway did well with them. I see a problem here myself.

    [/QUOTE]

    Salty has improved on handling the staff.

    [/QUOTE]

    I had a friend who has connections inside the Rangers team tell me at the time of the trade  that he was thrilled the Rangers had traded the guy as a Rangers fan. Not because of his yips or K's or D, but because almost nobody on the Rangers liked him. Purely anecdotal gossip, but my friend doesn't exaggerate and he did have many connections with the team. Have not heard much in the way of problems with the Sox though, just thought I would mention that since I found it interesting at the time.

    [/QUOTE]

    Salty has greatly reduced his Passed Balls and Wild Pitches.

    [/QUOTE]

     

    Your not big on CS%. I am not big on PB's and WP's stats.

     

    [/QUOTE]

    His bad CS% is partially the staff's fault and only amounted to about 8-9 more SBs than the league norm over the season.

    [/QUOTE]

     

     

    So do we also blame Atlanta's staff for his 19% and Texas's staff for his 21% CS%? I agree they have some impact, however he has always been pretty bad in CS%.

     

     

     

    Those who pick on Salty have no idea just how bad MLb catching is these days. Salty is a plus over most team's total catching output. He is not a weakness, but has had more posts bashing him than he deserved.

    [/QUOTE]


    I guess we disagree. Still enjoy your stuff. BTW, the winning percentage stats you showed were concerning for Napoli. I had looked and couldn't find them. Where do you get the winning percentage stats for catchers.

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: sox to compete in 2013

    I honestly would rather have Doubie than Haren. He finished the year strong and next year we should see closer to 200IP from FD. Years of control and should be a 15 game winner in the #4 slot. All for the league minimum.

    Im all onboard, as Ive been stating for a couple months now, that Torii Hunter would be the perfect bridge to our "kids" in the OF. He batted .313 with a very respectable .365 OBP. That and his veteran leadership and clubhouse presence would be invaluable IMO.

    I understand that getting Ike davis would cost prospects and/or MLB ready players. I just think Doubie is going to be a solid producer for our rotation.

     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from parhunter55. Show parhunter55's posts

    Re: sox to compete in 2013

    southpaw, I cannot disagree with you on Doubie.  If the Sox keep him, I believe he will be a very good #4 pitcher.  However, if I could trade him for Ike Davis I would do that and then sign Haren to replace Doubie.  There is still a good chance that would be an upgrade at the #4 slot in the rotation, at least for 2013, and it would solve 1B, a position at which the Sox have no real promising minor leaguers.  Haren then holds the place for a developing starter with more upside than Doubie. 

    But if the Sox can keep Doubie and land Ike Davis for some spare parts from the farm, it still works in my mind, as long as they add a Peavy, Hamels or a Sanchez, someone who can pitch in the #2 or #3 slot and push Buchholz and Lester to be better.

     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: sox to compete in 2013

    Here are some numbers from the Salty thread...

    Salty 4/26/12-10/3/12: 774.2 Inn 4.43 CERA

    Shopp 4/26/12-trade: 293.1 Inn 3.93 CERA

     [/QUOTE]

     

    Thats what I kind of remembered. Thought at the time that it kind of hurt your argument. If you don't think so, thats cool.

     

    Again, looking at CERA numbers like this is not accurate. Look at the pitcher by pitcher numbers and they are about even (8 to 8).

     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: sox to compete in 2013

    Those who pick on Salty have no idea just how bad MLb catching is these days. Salty is a plus over most team's total catching output. He is not a weakness, but has had more posts bashing him than he deserved.

    [/QUOTE]


    I guess we disagree. Still enjoy your stuff. BTW, the winning percentage stats you showed were concerning for Napoli. I had looked and couldn't find them. Where do you get the winning percentage stats for catchers.

     

    Go to baseball reference dot com and click under the player's "game logs" tab. It shows W-L record in games started and games appeared in on the top.

     

    Go to fangraphs to see the state of catcher offense in MLB today: it's shockingly horrible...

    http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=c&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2012&month=0&season1=2012&ind=0&team=0,ts&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0

    9 teams under .220 BA as a team.

    13 under .228. (nearly half)

    15 teams with 15 HRs or less...as a team! (Sox had 32)

    14 teams with 73 or less RBIs.

    6 teams with an OBP below .289.

    15 teams below .307.

    16 teams with a SLG% below .395.

     

     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: sox to compete in 2013

    In response to parhunter55's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    southpaw, I cannot disagree with you on Doubie.  If the Sox keep him, I believe he will be a very good #4 pitcher.  However, if I could trade him for Ike Davis I would do that and then sign Haren to replace Doubie.  There is still a good chance that would be an upgrade at the #4 slot in the rotation, at least for 2013, and it would solve 1B, a position at which the Sox have no real promising minor leaguers.  Haren then holds the place for a developing starter with more upside than Doubie. 

    But if the Sox can keep Doubie and land Ike Davis for some spare parts from the farm, it still works in my mind, as long as they add a Peavy, Hamels or a Sanchez, someone who can pitch in the #2 or #3 slot and push Buchholz and Lester to be better.

    [/QUOTE]


    I know the mets are looking for bullpen arms and a guy like Morales could be thrown in a deal to land davis. FM also proved he could be a starter again in MLB which might get the Mets attention. Not sure what else the mets need.

    I like either haren or peavey, although both have their issues, on a 2-3 year deal...

     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: sox to compete in 2013

    Dan Haren turns 33 next September.

    He is a quality pitcher, but has a lot of innings on his arm, and he's coming off his 2nd worst season since becoming a FT starter in 2005. Hiss are nearly the same, but he slips a little in the second half of the season.

    He had over 33 GS'd & 216 IP for 7 straight years ('05 to '11), including over 235+ IP in 2010 & 2011. 

    He's 6-1 3.22 vs the Yanks.

    He's 7-4 3.01 vs TB.

    He's 1-5 4.08 in Fenway with just over 35 IP (small sample size).

    I'd like him on our team on a 2-3 year deal, maybe 4 years tops, but he will be costly.I think he will get about $60-70M/4 from somebody. Could he be the next Lackey?

     

     

    Jake Peavy turns 32 next May.

    His numbers have been effected by injuries, recoveries, and playing in SD for so many games, but he is very good starter. He seemed to regain his old form in 2012, but you have to go back to 2007 to find another full season of top level pitching by him.

    2012: 3.37 and 1.096 in 219 innings is very very nice.

    Peavy does much better vs RHBs (.612 vs .728) and does slightly better in the 2nd half of the season (Sept is his best ERA month at 2.98)

    He's 0-4  3.94 vs the Yanks.

    He's 2-1 5.25 vs TB. Both small sample sizes of about 25 IP.

    He only has 7 career IP in Fenway.

    I think Peavy is going to get very big bucks and 4+ years. I wouldn't give $60-70M/4 for him either, and he might get much more than that.

     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from SonicsMonksLyresVicars. Show SonicsMonksLyresVicars's posts

    Re: sox to compete in 2013

    In response to mef429's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    i dont know how anyone can look at the seasons the A's & O's put together and say the 2013 sox can not contend.. the core of our players is still intact, sure we have some big holes to fill but we have the most roster and financial flexibility of any other team!


    this offseason will be critical and you know ben has been thinking about moves since the meda-deal happened. i expect him to come out of the gate swinging. we have our manager and coaching staff coming together by the time the offseason officially rolls around that will be straightened out. I expect us to resign ortiz/ross so thats DH and one OF set.


    still we need a 1st baseman, OF'er, SS and at least 1 starter. 4 holes i expect ben to do a great job filling.

     

    the sox can definitely compete in 2013

    [/QUOTE]

    The comments that wind me up the most are along the lines of "you can't expect them to gain 20 games in the standings year-on-year" when that was done this year by the Os and by the Sox (in reverse).

     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: sox to compete in 2013

    The comments that wind me up the most are along the lines of "you can't expect them to gain 20 games in the standings year-on-year" when that was done this year by the Os and by the Sox (in reverse).

     

    If we "gain 20 games" in 2013, we'll probably still miss the playoffs, and if we squeek in, will probably not advance far.

    I may change my tune if Ben goes hogwild this winter.

     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from mef429. Show mef429's posts

    Re: sox to compete in 2013

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    The comments that wind me up the most are along the lines of "you can't expect them to gain 20 games in the standings year-on-year" when that was done this year by the Os and by the Sox (in reverse).

     

    If we "gain 20 games" in 2013, we'll probably still miss the playoffs, and if we squeek in, will probably not advance far.

    I may change my tune if Ben goes hogwild this winter.

    [/QUOTE]

    so if lester, buch and lackey pitch to their career norms. doubront builds on a good first season and ben gets a good pitcher in the offseason that our rotation wouldn't be good enough to get us into the postseason? then its just a matter of staying healthy.

     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: sox to compete in 2013

    In response to mef429's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    The comments that wind me up the most are along the lines of "you can't expect them to gain 20 games in the standings year-on-year" when that was done this year by the Os and by the Sox (in reverse).

     

    If we "gain 20 games" in 2013, we'll probably still miss the playoffs, and if we squeek in, will probably not advance far.

    I may change my tune if Ben goes hogwild this winter.

    [/QUOTE]

    so if lester, buch and lackey pitch to their career norms. doubront builds on a good first season and ben gets a good pitcher in the offseason that our rotation wouldn't be good enough to get us into the postseason? then its just a matter of staying healthy.

    [/QUOTE]

    When will you learn that we never can all stay healthy and not have any declines, but yes, if they all play to their career norms, and we pick up another good starter we would make the playoffs.

    Based on 162 games... (no injuries and no declines)

    Lester   15-9  3.76

    Lackey 15-11 4.10

    Buch     15-10 3.92

    I'd bet my house even 2 of these three will not occur in 2013.

    (By the way, I have been accused more of being overly optimistic and a homer than a pessimist.)

     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from kimsaysthis. Show kimsaysthis's posts

    Re: sox to compete in 2013

    I'll just say that there is absolutely no way that any well-known, well-loved personality from the Yankees will ever wear a Sox uniform. No way. Swisher is NEVER coming to Boston. So, anyone who believes that a possibility is going to be disappointed. He'll NEVER come here.

     

Share