Sox to Promote Devers to GCL

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Sox to Promote Devers to GCL

    In response to ctredsoxfanhugh's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    DEVERS takes a large jump in the prospect rankings and moves up to #4 on the Soxprospect.com rankings. 

     

    http://soxprospects.com/" rel="nofollow">http://soxprospects.com/

    [/QUOTE]


    soxprospects.com has done a remarkable job ranking our prospects over the years. They often rank low level farm proapects pretty high, and they end up proving their value.

    My sleeper pick, Luis Diaz, jumped more slots than Devers (from 34 to 18).

    The biggest jumps?

    +26 Javier Guerra

    +23 T Shaw

    +19 S Wright (29 years old), Jonathan Aro

    +18 Longhi

    +16 Luis Diaz

    +14 Devers, K Couch

    +13 Justin Haley

    +11 Marrero, Johnson, Coyle

    +9 Betts

    +6 H Ramos

    +5 Vazquez

    +4 Margot, Celestino

    +3 Swihart

    +2 Rijo

    +?? Reed Gragnani (Not Rated to 39th), Carlos Asuaje (NR>33), Aaron Kurcz (NR>44), Mauricio Dubon (NR>48), Dedgar Jimenez (NR>49)

     

    Biggest drops?

    -28 Cody Kukuk

    -21 Pat Light

    -18 Brentz (Where are all the Brentz lovers now?), Hinojosa

    -15 Butler

    -13 D Britton, Stankiewicz

    -12 de la Cruz, K Martin

    -11 Callahan

    -9 Cecchini, A Wilson, German Taveras

    -8 Littrell, J Almonte

    -5 S Mercedes

    -4 T Ball

    -3 Barnes

    -2 N Ramirez

    The 2013 draft is looking worse than it did earlier this year. T Ball, Stanki and Jon Deeny have tumbled down, so have Littrell and Martin. Our 11th round pick, Carlos Asuaje rose from not rated to #33, but he's got a long way to go to make us forget the others- not that those that fell can't rise again.

    The 2012 draft has looked better at the top: both Marrero and Johnson have both risen significantly, but Light and Callahan have fallen. Justin Haley (6th round) jumped a lot.

    The 2011 draft shows Swihart, T Shaw and Betts jumping plus JBJ lost his prospect status. Kukuk fell, but he was a 7th rounder anyway.

    The 2010 draft, with all those comp picks, looks like a mixed bag now. Our top pick (Vitek) retired already, and our 2nd pick Brentz tumbled significantly. Cecchini (4th round) had risen quickly before falling this year. However, Ranaudo and Workman still look promising, and Coyle jumped a lot. Ramos and Couch rose too.

    2009 was a total bust, but Fuentes helped us land AGon, who helped us dump salary and gain de la Rosa, Webster and others.

    2008's draft saw Vazquez rise, and Kelly helped us get AGon as well, but the rest looks poor, except 32nd rounder Travis Shaw.

    2007: bust. Middlebrooks and Britton may end us salvaging some value, but the rest looks bad.

    Only Masterson looks good from the 2006 draft, but we did get 2-3 good years from Bard.

    2005 is still king: Ellsbury, Hansen (helped get us J Bay), Buch, Lowrie and Bowden.

    My top 20 would be:

    1) Betts

    2) Owens

    3) Swihart

    4) Devers

    5) Ranaudo

    6) Marrero

    7) Webster

    8) Johnson

    9) Margot

    10) Cecchini

    11) L Diaz

    12) Vazquez

    13) Coyle

    14) Barnes

    15) Chavis

    16) Kopech

    17) Rijo

    18) TBall

    19) T Shaw

    20) H Ramos/C Asuaje

     

     

     

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from ctredsoxfanhugh. Show ctredsoxfanhugh's posts

    Re: Sox to Promote Devers to GCL

    I'm not too concerned with the 2013 draft class, they went heavy on the high schoolers and they take more time to develop and they are only into their first seasons as professionals.  At this point last year the 2012 draft class looked pretty bad, and now it looks much much much better. 

    Luis Diaz has struggled a lot recently, still his stock is up, but his lack of ability to hold velocity deep into games has me thinking he is inevitably a bullpen arm.  Which is nothing bad, he could end up being really really good there. 

    2 guys that have jumped a lot who I think might be something really special in a few years is Nick Longhi, and Javier Guerra.  Guerra has looked very sharp with the glove at SS, and has showed good contact skills and a good approach for his age at the plate.  Longhi is just hitting right now, the power isn't there but he is a lined rive hitter who generates loft, with a 6'2 215 pound frame many think he is going to start generating good power soon.  A life long sox fan, with some power potential, who can hit, and is an outfielder???? too bad he's not 3-4 years older. 

    I used to like Pat Light a lot, loved the frame and the fastball, but the results just aren't there.  He strikes me as the kinda guy who might take off if they just move him to the bullpen, where his high velocity will play up better in shorter stints.  Kukuk still has a lot of potential in my eyes, but he is an all or nothing guy, who is still very young and would have the same ceiling as the Owens/Websters/Ranaudos of the system if he could ever improve his command/control.  

    Every time it looks like the system is weakening, the younger guys remind us that there is another wave behind the list of guys who are on the cusp of a MLB career.  There does seem to be a large hole forming in the middle of the ORG right now.  Salem doesn't look very good at all, and Portland might look like a very different team next year. 

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Sox to Promote Devers to GCL

    I'm not too concerned with the 2013 draft class, they went heavy on the high schoolers and they take more time to develop and they are only into their first seasons as professionals.

    Goods points all around. Of course the most recent draft classes will take more time to judge.

    Sox4ever

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from ctredsoxfanhugh. Show ctredsoxfanhugh's posts

    Re: Sox to Promote Devers to GCL

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    I'm not too concerned with the 2013 draft class, they went heavy on the high schoolers and they take more time to develop and they are only into their first seasons as professionals.

    Goods points all around. Of course the most recent draft classes will take more time to judge.

    Sox4ever

    [/QUOTE]

    I've learned to not judge a book by it's cover, or a draft its' first year out.  I was initially very disappointing in the 2012 draft.  But considering the draft was weak all around I think the Sox did well, and by well I mean they didn't do as poorly as everyone else as that draft was devoid of talent.  I'm sure there are few future MLB all stars there and maybe even a guy who wins an MVP or a CY young at the top, but as a whole it was weak. It did after all produce Bryon Buxton.  

    the 2014 draft at first glance appears to be the Sox best draft since 2011, but that could change in a few years from now.....lets hope it does not.  The Sox seemed to do very well in this draft with a lot of guys signing....there really wasn't a Ryan Boldt type this year, it seemed as if they had a much better grasp of who was signable and who wasn't. 

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from georom4. Show georom4's posts

    Re: Sox to Promote Devers to GCL

    In response to ctredsoxfanhugh's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Guess what!!! some people like talking about prospects.  I get that some people don't share the same love.  I don't like gardening....You don't see me going into forums and threads about gardening telling people that they shouldn't get their hopes up about their flowers blooming anytime.

    ....anything else we can think of to complain on these boards???

    any more players to bash???

    [/QUOTE]


    I would trade Devers now when he is hot ....

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Sox to Promote Devers to GCL

    In response to georom4's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to ctredsoxfanhugh's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Guess what!!! some people like talking about prospects.  I get that some people don't share the same love.  I don't like gardening....You don't see me going into forums and threads about gardening telling people that they shouldn't get their hopes up about their flowers blooming anytime.

    ....anything else we can think of to complain on these boards???

    any more players to bash???

    [/QUOTE]


    I would trade Devers now when he is hot ....

    [/QUOTE]


    He could end up being part of the Stanton trade.

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from ctredsoxfanhugh. Show ctredsoxfanhugh's posts

    Re: Sox to Promote Devers to GCL

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to georom4's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to ctredsoxfanhugh's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Guess what!!! some people like talking about prospects.  I get that some people don't share the same love.  I don't like gardening....You don't see me going into forums and threads about gardening telling people that they shouldn't get their hopes up about their flowers blooming anytime.

    ....anything else we can think of to complain on these boards???

    any more players to bash???

    [/QUOTE]


    I would trade Devers now when he is hot ....

    [/QUOTE]


    He could end up being part of the Stanton trade.

    [/QUOTE]

    I wouldn't trade Devers for Stanton, players like Devers don't often get traded.   His ceiling is so high, and his talent is so good that players like him always represent much more value to their team than another team because no matter how high his ceiling is, or how high is batting average is in the GCL he is never going to hold that much trade value being this far away from the Major leagues.

    But I'm sure Gerome would trade him....he's trade anybody...for anything.  He'd be the Samuel L Jackson of doing trades.

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Sox to Promote Devers to GCL

    In response to ctredsoxfanhugh's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to georom4's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to ctredsoxfanhugh's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Guess what!!! some people like talking about prospects.  I get that some people don't share the same love.  I don't like gardening....You don't see me going into forums and threads about gardening telling people that they shouldn't get their hopes up about their flowers blooming anytime.

    ....anything else we can think of to complain on these boards???

    any more players to bash???

    [/QUOTE]


    I would trade Devers now when he is hot ....

    [/QUOTE]


    He could end up being part of the Stanton trade.

    [/QUOTE]

    I wouldn't trade Devers for Stanton, players like Devers don't often get traded.   His ceiling is so high, and his talent is so good that players like him always represent much more value to their team than another team because no matter how high his ceiling is, or how high is batting average is in the GCL he is never going to hold that much trade value being this far away from the Major leagues.

    But I'm sure Gerome would trade him....he's trade anybody...for anything.  He'd be the Samuel L Jackson of doing trades.

    [/QUOTE]


    I'm not sure I get your point. In actually think far-away prospects are more valuable to teams like the Marlins than teams like the Sox.

    Plus, being Cuban could help raise his value playing in southern Florida.

    For the Sox, we seem to be more the type of team that wants to win now or the next year and not 3-8 years from now. I know the Sox have been trying to keep the farm strong from top to bottom and do value far away prospects more than most big spending or big market teams, but I still the the Marlins would place more value of a profile like Devers than the Sox do.

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from jasko2248. Show jasko2248's posts

    Re: Sox to Promote Devers to GCL

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to georom4's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to ctredsoxfanhugh's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Guess what!!! some people like talking about prospects.  I get that some people don't share the same love.  I don't like gardening....You don't see me going into forums and threads about gardening telling people that they shouldn't get their hopes up about their flowers blooming anytime.

    ....anything else we can think of to complain on these boards???

    any more players to bash???

    [/QUOTE]


    I would trade Devers now when he is hot ....

    [/QUOTE]


    He could end up being part of the Stanton trade.

    [/QUOTE]

    "The" Stanton trade?  You might want to temper your expectations.  Stanton's not going anywhere.  I think you'll see the Marlins sign him to a long term deal at some point over the next 12 months.  He's become as "unavailable" as any player in baseball.  

     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Sox to Promote Devers to GCL

    He could end up being part of the Stanton trade.

    [/QUOTE]

    "The" Stanton trade? You might want to temper your expectations. Stanton's not going anywhere. I think you'll see the Marlins sign him to a long term deal at some point over the next 12 months. He's become as "unavailable" as any player in baseball.

    I highly doubt it.

    1) The marlins have never signed anyone to big money.

    2) The leak of the Astros front office notes shows the Marlins initiated trade talks on Stanton with Houston.

    3) The Marlins would love to get 3-5 good prospects from the Sox farm system. We are one of the few teams in MLB that can afford to extend Stanton AND have good enough farm prospects & young players to give the Marlins what they want. Many teams have one or the other, but not both.

    Stanton will be traded by next July at the latest. The Marlins will try and judge when his value is highest, which is probably right now, and then get the best possible package for him. He has 2 arb years left and should get a hefty raise this winter due to the monster year he is putting up right now. The team trading for Stanton right now would get 3 playoff opportunities and 2 full seasons. If the Marlins trade him next July, it's only 2 playoff cycles and 1.3 regular seasons.

    Personally, I think he gets traded this winter, but teams get desperate at deadline time, and some one may make them an offer they simply cannot refuse.  I hope it's us.

    Sox4ever 

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from jasko2248. Show jasko2248's posts

    Re: Sox to Promote Devers to GCL

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    He could end up being part of the Stanton trade.

    [/QUOTE]

    "The" Stanton trade? You might want to temper your expectations. Stanton's not going anywhere. I think you'll see the Marlins sign him to a long term deal at some point over the next 12 months. He's become as "unavailable" as any player in baseball.

    I highly doubt it.

    1) The marlins have never signed anyone to big money.

    2) The leak of the Astros front office notes shows the Marlins initiated trade talks on Stanton with Houston.

    3) The Marlins would love to get 3-5 good prospects from the Sox farm system. We are one of the few teams in MLB that can afford to extend Stanton AND have good enough farm prospects & young players to give the Marlins what they want. Many teams have one or the other, but not both.

    Stanton will be traded by next July at the latest. The Marlins will try and judge when his value is highest, which is probably right now, and then get the best possible package for him. He has 2 arb years left and should get a hefty raise this winter due to the monster year he is putting up right now. The team trading for Stanton right now would get 3 playoff opportunities and 2 full seasons. If the Marlins trade him next July, it's only 2 playoff cycles and 1.3 regular seasons.

    Personally, I think he gets traded this winter, but teams get desperate at deadline time, and some one may make them an offer they simply cannot refuse.  I hope it's us.

    Sox4ever 

    [/QUOTE]

    I'll make any bet you would like that he isn't traded by next August 1st.  Circumstances have changed since the Astros talks.  

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from ctredsoxfanhugh. Show ctredsoxfanhugh's posts

    Re: Sox to Promote Devers to GCL

    I would never hope to be the team that "overpays"

    If you make more overpays than sell highs....you're almost guaranteed to be in a horrible place as an organization.

    Especially in this new age of baseball, where less star talent makes it to FA and teams will more and more and more have to rely on their farm systems. One of thee LARGEST reasons for the recent success and development of the Sox farm system has been due to them manipulating the system because they knew the system was going to change, call it a last hurrah if you will.  Granted, they are great drafters, but still a lot of their ability to bring talent into a system has been diminished.  Parity is coming to baseball....now is not the time to unload a system and overpay for a guy.

     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from ctredsoxfanhugh. Show ctredsoxfanhugh's posts

    Re: Sox to Promote Devers to GCL

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to ctredsoxfanhugh's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to georom4's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to ctredsoxfanhugh's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Guess what!!! some people like talking about prospects.  I get that some people don't share the same love.  I don't like gardening....You don't see me going into forums and threads about gardening telling people that they shouldn't get their hopes up about their flowers blooming anytime.

    ....anything else we can think of to complain on these boards???

    any more players to bash???

    [/QUOTE]


    I would trade Devers now when he is hot ....

    [/QUOTE]


    He could end up being part of the Stanton trade.

    [/QUOTE]

    I wouldn't trade Devers for Stanton, players like Devers don't often get traded.   His ceiling is so high, and his talent is so good that players like him always represent much more value to their team than another team because no matter how high his ceiling is, or how high is batting average is in the GCL he is never going to hold that much trade value being this far away from the Major leagues.

    But I'm sure Gerome would trade him....he's trade anybody...for anything.  He'd be the Samuel L Jackson of doing trades.

    [/QUOTE]


    I'm not sure I get your point. In actually think far-away prospects are more valuable to teams like the Marlins than teams like the Sox.

    Plus, being Cuban could help raise his value playing in southern Florida.

    For the Sox, we seem to be more the type of team that wants to win now or the next year and not 3-8 years from now. I know the Sox have been trying to keep the farm strong from top to bottom and do value far away prospects more than most big spending or big market teams, but I still the the Marlins would place more value of a profile like Devers than the Sox do.

    [/QUOTE]

    My point is there is an inherent ceiling on guys who are in the GCL and their trade value.  Have you ever seen a trade built around guys like Devers for guys like Stanton??? no, because it's never happened.  A guy like Devers is a secondary or third piece in a deal.  If Devers is half the player we hope he is, he would have a exponentially higher trade value in a couple years from now if he is still putting up good numbers up in Salem/Portland.  Devers isn't going to be the guy that gets you STanton, it just won't happen.  Again....when has a player that low in the minors ever been a big piece in a deal for a guy like Stanton?  You'd still have to offer Betts/Bogaerts, and even with one of those guys it would be much much easier to keep a guy like Devers if Bogaerts is in the deal.  

     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from ctredsoxfanhugh. Show ctredsoxfanhugh's posts

    Re: Sox to Promote Devers to GCL

    Think of it this way, Devers didn't make anyones mid season top 50/75/100.

    If he is putting up numbers like he is now in 2 years from now, he's be the #1 prospect in baseball.

    Who do you think holds more trade value????

    teams don't cash in and "sell high" on guys in the GCL, there is a large level of familiarity between player and team and when someone shows the promise he does he is kept and developed.  Guys like Devers just don't get traded this early.....it just doesn't happen.

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Sox to Promote Devers to GCL

    I'll make any bet you would like that he isn't traded by next August 1st. Circumstances have changed since the Astros talks.

    What big changes have happened since the Astros talks?

    How about betting on August 1,2015 and the loser promises not to post on this site for 1 full week after the trade or non trade?

    Sox4ever

     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Sox to Promote Devers to GCL

    In response to ctredsoxfanhugh's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    I would never hope to be the team that "overpays"

    If you make more overpays than sell highs....you're almost guaranteed to be in a horrible place as an organization.

    Especially in this new age of baseball, where less star talent makes it to FA and teams will more and more and more have to rely on their farm systems. One of thee LARGEST reasons for the recent success and development of the Sox farm system has been due to them manipulating the system because they knew the system was going to change, call it a last hurrah if you will.  Granted, they are great drafters, but still a lot of their ability to bring talent into a system has been diminished.  Parity is coming to baseball....now is not the time to unload a system and overpay for a guy.

    [/QUOTE]


    I totally get your point and don't disagree at all, but at some point we will need to overpay to get elite talent. I understand the belief that the elite talent should and could come from our own system much like the Cards are able to do, but to get over the hump, I think we will need to go large somewhere and overpay in money or prospects for that one guy that makes a difference.

     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Sox to Promote Devers to GCL

    In response to ctredsoxfanhugh's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Think of it this way, Devers didn't make anyones mid season top 50/75/100.

    If he is putting up numbers like he is now in 2 years from now, he's be the #1 prospect in baseball.

    Who do you think holds more trade value????

    teams don't cash in and "sell high" on guys in the GCL, there is a large level of familiarity between player and team and when someone shows the promise he does he is kept and developed.  Guys like Devers just don't get traded this early.....it just doesn't happen.

    [/QUOTE]


    I agree it does not happen often, but I think a team like the Marlins value far away prospects more than most teams, and Devers' Cuban heritage is a big plus to their market, hence my feeling that Devers probably holds more value to them than us. I understand that highly speculative value is not the same as a top 10 or top 100 prospect, but my guess is that Devers will crack some top 100 lists this winter, even though he is the GCL.

     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from ctredsoxfanhugh. Show ctredsoxfanhugh's posts

    Re: Sox to Promote Devers to GCL

    In response to moonslav59's comment:


    In response to ctredsoxfanhugh's comment:
    [QUOTE]


    Think of it this way, Devers didn't make anyones mid season top 50/75/100.


    If he is putting up numbers like he is now in 2 years from now, he's be the #1 prospect in baseball.


    Who do you think holds more trade value????


    teams don't cash in and "sell high" on guys in the GCL, there is a large level of familiarity between player and team and when someone shows the promise he does he is kept and developed.  Guys like Devers just don't get traded this early.....it just doesn't happen.





    I agree it does not happen often, but I think a team like the Marlins value far away prospects more than most teams, and Devers' Cuban heritage is a big plus to their market, hence my feeling that Devers probably holds more value to them than us. I understand that highly speculative value is not the same as a top 10 or top 100 prospect, but my guess is that Devers will crack some top 100 lists this winter, even though he is the GCL.


    [/QUOTE]

    I doubt they value Devers more than us, teams always value their own guys more.  If Devers was MLB ready they would value him more.  That perceived value is based on his MLB play and the market it attracts.  Perhaps in 3 years from now they would value him more when he may be close to ready to step onto a MLB field.  If I was Ben, I hold onto a guy like Devers....yes he is far away and could be nothing in a few years, but he also has the kinda ceiling that teams dream of getting into our system.  He's likely the best bet for a future power threat in our system and he could move fast through the minors too. I can't speak for Ben....but I place a high level of value on guys like that.  I would view Devers as a potential future star, or a potential blue chip for an ACE or a monster bat in 2-3 years.

     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from jasko2248. Show jasko2248's posts

    Re: Sox to Promote Devers to GCL

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    I'll make any bet you would like that he isn't traded by next August 1st. Circumstances have changed since the Astros talks.

    What big changes have happened since the Astros talks?

    How about betting on August 1,2015 and the loser promises not to post on this site for 1 full week after the trade or non trade?

    Sox4ever

    [/QUOTE]

    Okay...I'm in.

     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Sox to Promote Devers to GCL

    I doubt they value Devers more than us, teams always value their own guys more. If Devers was MLB ready they would value him more.

    Of course he'd be worth more if Ml ready. He is, at this point, almost purely speculative value. I realize for the most part, most teams value their own prospects more than other teams, or we'd be seeing a lot of low and mid level players being swapped for each other. I get that.

    I also get that the Sox are a rare big market team that seems to highly value it's prospects from the tippy top to the very bottom levels. It's not a clear determination that the Marlins value far away prospects more than the Sox, but in theory, teams like the Marlins can afford to wait for top low level prospects to develop more than "we have to win now" type teams like the Sox. There's more pressure on Ben to win in 2015 than the Marlin's GM. That's the angle I was taking. Throw in the Cuban heritage and large Cuban population in southern Florida, and I still feel the Marlins would value Devers more than we do. I could be totally wrong here, but maybe the Marlins highly coveted Devers at the time we signed him. If so, I'd feel stronger about my position.

     

    Sox4ever 

     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from ctredsoxfanhugh. Show ctredsoxfanhugh's posts

    Re: Sox to Promote Devers to GCL

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    I doubt they value Devers more than us, teams always value their own guys more. If Devers was MLB ready they would value him more.

    Of course he'd be worth more if Ml ready. He is, at this point, almost purely speculative value. I realize for the most part, most teams value their own prospects more than other teams, or we'd be seeing a lot of low and mid level players being swapped for each other. I get that.

    I also get that the Sox are a rare big market team that seems to highly value it's prospects from the tippy top to the very bottom levels. It's not a clear determination that the Marlins value far away prospects more than the Sox, but in theory, teams like the Marlins can afford to wait for top low level prospects to develop more than "we have to win now" type teams like the Sox. There's more pressure on Ben to win in 2015 than the Marlin's GM. That's the angle I was taking. Throw in the Cuban heritage and large Cuban population in southern Florida, and I still feel the Marlins would value Devers more than we do. I could be totally wrong here, but maybe the Marlins highly coveted Devers at the time we signed him. If so, I'd feel stronger about my position.

     

    Sox4ever 

    [/QUOTE]

    My only issue with this is how far away Devers is.  I know it's easy to go goo goo ga ga over these guys (and I'm more guilty than most) but the reality is Devers has just as much of a chance of never getting past double A as he does turning into a MLB power hitter. I don't really think the cuban heritage comes into play in terms of his value until he is a known MLB commodity or more of a sure thing. 

    Devers is also the best chance for an elite power hitter the Sox have in their system, and the biggest they've had in a very long time.  They've had plenty of good power guys.  I think Bogaerts will hit some homeruns, and Hanley had some good power and there were other guys....but Devers is the first guy who might have 80 power (on the 20-80) scale, and I can't remember the last time the Sox had that in their system.

    Perhaps I'm wrong here, but I just don't buy into the ideal that anyone can value a guy like that more than the team that owns that prospect.  Think of it this way, while it does happen...one of the rarest trades in baseball is the prospect for prospect trade.  For example, you almost never see the #10 ranked prospect traded for the #15th guy because there is such a huge level of familiarity with a teams own guys they inherently always value them higher.  Are there exceptions??? sure, would the Marlins love Devers in a package for Stanton??? Yes they would.  But if Devers can be half the player we all hope he is.........then his value will be much higher in a couple years.  As highly regarded as he is for an international signee, we would still be selling relatively low on him right now.  That I'm 100% positive on, I'll admit I could be wrong on how Florida may value their guys, but I'm pretty sure trading Devers right now is a bad ideal.....I recognize you aren't necessarily advocating this as well. 

     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Sox to Promote Devers to GCL

    In response to jasko2248's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    I'll make any bet you would like that he isn't traded by next August 1st. Circumstances have changed since the Astros talks.

    What big changes have happened since the Astros talks?

    How about betting on August 1,2015 and the loser promises not to post on this site for 1 full week after the trade or non trade?

    Sox4ever

    [/QUOTE]

    Okay...I'm in.

    [/QUOTE]


    It's a deal, but I'm still curious about what you feel "changed" since the talks with the Astros.

     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from jasko2248. Show jasko2248's posts

    Re: Sox to Promote Devers to GCL

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to jasko2248's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    I'll make any bet you would like that he isn't traded by next August 1st. Circumstances have changed since the Astros talks.

    What big changes have happened since the Astros talks?

    How about betting on August 1,2015 and the loser promises not to post on this site for 1 full week after the trade or non trade?

    Sox4ever

    [/QUOTE]

    Okay...I'm in.

    [/QUOTE]


    It's a deal, but I'm still curious about what you feel "changed" since the talks with the Astros.

    [/QUOTE]

    A couple of things.  From what I've heard, since they were pretty competitive for the first half of the season, despite the recent swoon, they think they can make a run next year with their ace coming back, some kids developing and they'll have the resources to add a couple of pieces.  Also, Stanton is having a big year, he's taken on a leadership role there and he has changed his tune since the Toronto salary dump. He also thinks they can win.

     I'm well aware of the history with the Marlins, but again, reliable sources say that they feel that they can make a legit run next year, and they aren't going to go into full rebuild mode again.  Things can obviously change, but I don't think Stanton will be available at all this winter and I don't think he's ever going to be a "deadline trade" candidate, as he has enough value where you would want all teams involved if they ever decide to make him available.  Right handed power is arguably the #1 commodity in baseball right now.  

     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Sox to Promote Devers to GCL

    My only issue with this is how far away Devers is. I know it's easy to go goo goo ga ga over these guys (and I'm more guilty than most) but the reality is Devers has just as much of a chance of never getting past double A as he does turning into a MLB power hitter. I don't really think the cuban heritage comes into play in terms of his value until he is a known MLB commodity or more of a sure thing.

    True, but I think we can see that the Marlins pick Cuban players more than most teams- hoping a few of them reach the ML level. That's why I was wondering if they had a keen interest in Devers before he signed with the Sox. Maybe they just missed getting him, and if that is the case, they may still want him even more now that he has gotten off to a great start in the GCL- small sample not withstanding.

    Devers is also the best chance for an elite power hitter the Sox have in their system, and the biggest they've had in a very long time. They've had plenty of good power guys. I think Bogaerts will hit some homeruns, and Hanley had some good power and there were other guys....but Devers is the first guy who might have 80 power (on the 20-80) scale, and I can't remember the last time the Sox had that in their system.

    Okay, see this is where I start thinking that other teams see devers as having potential to be "that guy" and would value him as much as the Sox do, you do and I do.

     

    Perhaps I'm wrong here, but I just don't buy into the ideal that anyone can value a guy like that more than the team that owns that prospect. Think of it this way, while it does happen...one of the rarest trades in baseball is the prospect for prospect trade. For example, you almost never see the #10 ranked prospect traded for the #15th guy because there is such a huge level of familiarity with a teams own guys they inherently always value them higher. Are there exceptions??? sure, would the Marlins love Devers in a package for Stanton??? Yes they would. But if Devers can be half the player we all hope he is.........then his value will be much higher in a couple years. As highly regarded as he is for an international signee, we would still be selling relatively low on him right now. That I'm 100% positive on, I'll admit I could be wrong on how Florida may value their guys, but I'm pretty sure trading Devers right now is a bad ideal.....I recognize you aren't necessarily advocating this as well.

    I get your point. I realize that Devers might be worth twice as much, 4 times as much or 10 times as much in a couple years, but he could also be worth the most he ever will be right now. I doubt it, but that is the nature of speculative value on low level farm prospects.

    Although speculative value is by nature hard to define, it is, nevertheless, value that can be compared to ML ready or near ML ready prospect value, which also has risks involved. I find it interesting that soxprospects had Devers ahead of Webster, Ranaudo, and Vazquez. He's 5th right now on a strong system.

    I see that Cecchini is near ML ready, and Middlebrooks has already shown some flashes of brilliance, but if I was a GM, I'd want Devers over both of them combined... and you know me- I have liked Cecchini a lot for a long time.

    I guess what I'm saying is that I think the Marlins may ask for Devers over many of our more ML ready prospects. They may think the speculative value is so high with this kid that it is worth the gamble vs a more ML ready player with lower top end upside potential but more of a sure bet to make to the bigs and contribute.

     

    Sox4ever

     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Sox to Promote Devers to GCL

    In response to jasko2248's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to jasko2248's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    I'll make any bet you would like that he isn't traded by next August 1st. Circumstances have changed since the Astros talks.

    What big changes have happened since the Astros talks?

    How about betting on August 1,2015 and the loser promises not to post on this site for 1 full week after the trade or non trade?

    Sox4ever

    [/QUOTE]

    Okay...I'm in.

    [/QUOTE]


    It's a deal, but I'm still curious about what you feel "changed" since the talks with the Astros.

    [/QUOTE]

    A couple of things.  From what I've heard, since they were pretty competitive for the first half of the season, despite the recent swoon, they think they can make a run next year with their ace coming back, some kids developing and they'll have the resources to add a couple of pieces.  Also, Stanton is having a big year, he's taken on a leadership role there and he has changed his tune since the Toronto salary dump. He also thinks they can win.

     I'm well aware of the history with the Marlins, but again, reliable sources say that they feel that they can make a legit run next year, and they aren't going to go into full rebuild mode again.  Things can obviously change, but I don't think Stanton will be available at all this winter and I don't think he's ever going to be a "deadline trade" candidate, as he has enough value where you would want all teams involved if they ever decide to make him available.  Right handed power is arguably the #1 commodity in baseball right now.  

    [/QUOTE]


    Fair enough. Good points all around.

    I disagree on deadline value vs winter value as desperation ups many player's values beyond their worth. Just look how far the Dodgers went out of their way to get AGon.

    We'll see. I'm still nearly certain Stanton will be gone by August 1st 2015. I guess they could wait until winter '15-16, but I think they'd get more by selling high right now or this winter.

     
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