Starting Pitching Still Doing Its Job

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from royf19. Show royf19's posts

    Starting Pitching Still Doing Its Job

    I posted some of this elsewhere, but thought it deserved its own thread.

    Because Buchholz's health and Lester's struggles, some fans seem to think the starting pitching is going downhill. Actually, it's been pretty good recently.

    Doubront in his last eight starts has a 2.77 ERA and has gone six or more innings five times.

    Dempster has a 3.47 ERA in his last five starts.

    Lackey has a 2.41 ERA in his last seven starts, going at least six innings in six of them (5.2 in the other) and seven innings three times.

    Buchholz has been great when he's pitched. 

    Morales was good in his spot start at the end of May.

    Aceves has had three spot starts since the end of May (the first being May 24) and is 3-0 with a 1.59 ERA in 17 IP.

    So despite Lester's struggles, the starters still have been very strong overall. He needs to get back on track, but this is what good teams do. When one player struggles, someone else picks it up. 

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Starting Pitching Still Doing Its Job

    There are 51 starting pitchers in the AL with 70+ IP so far this season. Here is how our SP'er rate in these categories:

    SIERA:

    11) Buchholz  3.47

    13) Lackey     3.48

    23) Dempster 4.02

    24) Lester      4.02

    25) Doubront 4.03

    All 5 are in the top 50% of AL SP'ers!

     

    xFIP

    9) Buch   3.22

    13) Lack 3.45

    22) Doub 3.91

    28) Lest  4.00

    29) Demp 4.05

    All 5 are in the top 53% of AL SP'ers.

     

    WHIP

    6) Buch    1.02

    17) Lack  1.21

    31) Demp 1.35

    34) Lest    1.37

    43) Doub  1.43

     

    By the way, the one SP softy wanted to pay more than $1M a year, was Jeremy Guthrie:

    #51 out of 51 in SIERA at 5.22

    #51 out of 51 in tERA at 6.40

    #51 out of 51 in xFIP at 5.14

    #50 out of 51 in K/BB at 1.32

    #40 out of 51 in WHIP at 1.41

    No wonder he went AWOL.

    Sox4ever

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: Starting Pitching Still Doing Its Job

    Tell Pumpise this. He says our pitching is the reason we wont make the playoffs.

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from pumpsie-green. Show pumpsie-green's posts

    Re: Starting Pitching Still Doing Its Job

    In response to southpaw777's comment:

    Tell Pumpise this. He says our pitching is the reason we wont make the playoffs.




    It is the reason we won't have much chance of winning a ring. Overall our pitching now ranks SEVENTH in the AL, not good enough to seriously compete for ring. There is a better chance of making the playoffs because of our offense, but I can't see it compensating for a mediocre pitching staff whose team ERA continues to increase.

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Starting Pitching Still Doing Its Job

    In response to pumpsie-green's comment:

    In response to southpaw777's comment:

    [QUOTE]

     

    Tell Pumpise this. He says our pitching is the reason we wont make the playoffs.

     




    It is the reason we won't have much chance of winning a ring. Overall our pitching now ranks SEVENTH in the AL, not good enough to seriously compete for ring. There is a better chance of making the playoffs because of our offense, but I can't see it compensating for a mediocre pitching staff whose team ERA continues to increase.

     

    [/QUOTE]

    What stat are you looking at to say we are 7th?

    Do you adjust for playing half our games being played in Fenway?

    Here is a look at some team pitching numbers:

    SIERA:

    1) Detroit  3.16

    2) Seattle  3.64 (wont make playoffs)

    3) NYY      3.65 

    4) TBR      3.71

    5) Tex      3.72

    6) Bos      3.82

     

    xFIP

    Det  3.22

    Sea 3.70

    NY  3.76

    TB  3.79

    Tex 3.79

    Bos 3.88

     

    SP'ers only:

    SIERA:

    1) Det   3.09

    2) Tex  3.71

    3) Sea  3.80 (No playoffs)

    4) CWS 3.89 (No playoffs)

    5) TBR  3.90

    6) Bost 3.98

    7) NYY  3.99

     

    I do agree that we need to improve our staff to have a solid chance at a ring, but I think using just ERA to make your point, assuming that was your basis for your statement, is being short-sighted.

    Our offense has done well this year, but they too are declining. Right now our OPS+ is 110, but our ERA+ is 111.

    Our staff has let up 6+ runs only 18 times (the league average is 24) and 7+ runs only 12 times (the AL avg is 18). This while playing half our games in Fenway.

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from royf19. Show royf19's posts

    Re: Starting Pitching Still Doing Its Job

    In response to pumpsie-green's comment:

    In response to southpaw777's comment:

    [QUOTE]

     

    Tell Pumpise this. He says our pitching is the reason we wont make the playoffs.

     




    It is the reason we won't have much chance of winning a ring. Overall our pitching now ranks SEVENTH in the AL, not good enough to seriously compete for ring. There is a better chance of making the playoffs because of our offense, but I can't see it compensating for a mediocre pitching staff whose team ERA continues to increase.

     

    [/QUOTE]

    Pay attention. It's not the rotation. It's the bullpen that's causing the ERA to rise. There's no doubt that Lester needs to get back on track and Buchholz needs to stay healthy. But the problem with the pitching staff right now is the bullpen, not the starters.

     

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from pumpsie-green. Show pumpsie-green's posts

    Re: Starting Pitching Still Doing Its Job

    In response to royf19's comment:

     

    In response to pumpsie-green's comment:

     

     

    In response to southpaw777's comment:

     

     

     

    Tell Pumpise this. He says our pitching is the reason we wont make the playoffs.

     

     

     




    It is the reason we won't have much chance of winning a ring. Overall our pitching now ranks SEVENTH in the AL, not good enough to seriously compete for ring. There is a better chance of making the playoffs because of our offense, but I can't see it compensating for a mediocre pitching staff whose team ERA continues to increase.

     

     

     

     



     

     

    Pay attention. It's not the rotation. It's the bullpen that's causing the ERA to rise. There's no doubt that Lester needs to get back on track and Buchholz needs to stay healthy. But the problem with the pitching staff right now is the bullpen, not the starters.

     



    You pay attention. I never identified which segment of our pitching is the major culprit in my post, did I? Of course the pen has been worse. They rank #12 in the AL. Our starters, thanks to a very good start, are better. When you look at who wins rings its generally the teams with very good pitching, and we don't have it. Its not even debateable. The numbers PROVE it. We are mediocre right now and sinking. Its the OVERALL ERA that I used in the Middlebrooks thread here to show that the average ranking in terms of ERA of teams that won a ring since 1990 is 3.86. We are SEVENTH overall. There have been only FOUR teams that won a ring with seventh ranked pitching or worse since 1990. Can we do it? Sure. But don't bet on it.

    PS: here is another sobering fact: in April our team had an ERA of 3.58, good for a ranking of fourth; in May the ERA increased to 4.00, seventh in the AL; and in June the ERA continued to increase to 4.16, tenth in the AL. So our pitching is now mediocre and getting worse. Thats what the numbers say, whatever the reason is.

     

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Starting Pitching Still Doing Its Job

    The numbers PROVE it.

    The numbers prove nothing of the sort, unless you are looking at unadjusted ERA.

    AL Numbers of teams with winning records right now:

    ERA+

    1) Tex  118

    2) Det  115

    3) Bos  111

    4) NYY 109

    5) Tor   104

    6) Oak  102

    7) Cle    92

    8) Bal    92

    9) TBR  91

     

    OPS+

    1) Det  110

    1) Bos 110

    1) Bal  110

    4) Cle  109

    4) TBR 109

    6) Oak 104

    7) Tot  100

    8) Tex   97

    9) NYY  85

    If you average them both:

    1) Det 112.5

    2) Bos  110.5

    3) Tex  107.5

    4) Oak  103.0

    5) Tor   102.0

    6) Bal   101.0

    7) Cle   100.5

    8) TBR 100.0

    9) NYY   98.0

     

    Without Buch, we are toast, but with him healthy, I'd give us as good a shot or better as Texas, Oakland, NYY, and anyone but Detroit.

    Sox4ever

     

     
Sections
Shortcuts

Share