Stirring the hornet's nest ...

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from lasitter. Show lasitter's posts

    Stirring the hornet's nest ...

    We're all ecstatic with Gomes' walk off HR. I'm giddy that we're on top of the baseball world right now, and particularly when you consider where we were in 2011-2012.

    But we still have to figure out how to beat Baltimore. We have to figure out how to do a few things better so that a team like SD won't take us to the 9th tied 1-1 after a fine performance by Lester.

    The 1 for 13 RISP bugs me. It's the kind of thing that Baltimore does better than we do, day in and out. It's why they have been the king of close / late / extra inning baseball.

    In the 8th vs SD, with 1st & 2nd and no outs, a sac bunt by Nava sets up Peedy to score on Carp's sac fly.

    In the 4th, with Salty on 2nd and no outs, a sac bunt by Snyder sets up a potential Salty score, running on contact with the shortstop throw to get Iggy close at 1st base.

    The Birds have just tightened things up trading for Feldman, and we play them nine more times.

    And: I know we're leading in extra base hits, but someone is going to have to parse this for me:

    http://tinyurl.com/pq3lc4l

    http://tinyurl.com/mabmux

    While the Birds lead baseball with 117 homers on 780 Ks, we're tied for 13th in MLB at 87 HRs / 701 Ks. And yet we've outscored them by 21 runs on the season ...

    A few more dingers would be nice, but I'm sure that'll come in the 2nd half.

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from Joebreidey. Show Joebreidey's posts

    Re: Stirring the hornet's nest ...

    But we still have to figure out how to beat Baltimore. We have to figure out how to do a few things better so that a team like SD won't take us to the 9th tied 1-1 after a fine performance by Lester.

    We need to finish first, not learn how to beat BA.  You don't learn how to beat teams, and these things usually level out.

    Teams like SD don't just roll over and play dead.  They still manage to win almost half their games.

    In the 8th vs SD, with 1st & 2nd and no outs, a sac bunt by Nava sets up Peedy to score on Carp's sac fly.

    In the 4th, with Salty on 2nd and no outs, a sac bunt by Snyder sets up a potential Salty score, running on contact with the shortstop throw to get Iggy close at 1st base.

    Sacrificing in the 4th is usually a poor play, though with Snyder up, I wouldn't dismiss it completely.

    I think I'd have sacrificed in the 8th, but they probably walk Carp and Salty has a huge K-rate.  If I could leave it up to a better contact hitter, then a sac is the way to go.

    While the Birds lead baseball with 117 homers on 780 Ks, we're tied for 13th in MLB at 87 HRs / 701 Ks. And yet we've outscored them by 21 runs on the season 

    OPS is almost directly correlated with scoring, and OBP is the slightly stronger factor than SLG.  Their SLG advantage of .009 is not supposed to trump our .029 advantage in OBP.

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from emp9. Show emp9's posts

    Re: Stirring the hornet's nest ...

    In response to lasitter's comment:

    We're all ecstatic with Gomes' walk off HR. I'm giddy that we're on top of the baseball world right now, and particularly when you consider where we were in 2011-2012.

    But we still have to figure out how to beat Baltimore. We have to figure out how to do a few things better so that a team like SD won't take us to the 9th tied 1-1 after a fine performance by Lester.

    The 1 for 13 RISP bugs me. It's the kind of thing that Baltimore does better than we do, day in and out. It's why they have been the king of close / late / extra inning baseball.

    In the 8th vs SD, with 1st & 2nd and no outs, a sac bunt by Nava sets up Peedy to score on Carp's sac fly.

    In the 4th, with Salty on 2nd and no outs, a sac bunt by Snyder sets up a potential Salty score, running on contact with the shortstop throw to get Iggy close at 1st base.

    The Birds have just tightened things up trading for Feldman, and we play them nine more times.

    And: I know we're leading in extra base hits, but someone is going to have to parse this for me:

    http://tinyurl.com/pq3lc4l

    http://tinyurl.com/mabmux

    While the Birds lead baseball with 117 homers on 780 Ks, we're tied for 13th in MLB at 87 HRs / 701 Ks. And yet we've outscored them by 21 runs on the season ...

    A few more dingers would be nice, but I'm sure that'll come in the 2nd half.



    I think trading for a groundball RP ( or two ) might help vs Balt. I'm still not shaking in my boots due to the Feldman Trade. 

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from JimfromFlorida. Show JimfromFlorida's posts

    Re: Stirring the hornet's nest ...

    The Os have more HRs so what. The RS have more runs and if I remember correctly more XBH. It is all about timing of those hits like last night. 

    Yes they missed on a bunch of chances but lookon the bright side they have a lot more chances to score than the team they are playing. 

    As for nava bunting I do believe he bunted into a DP the last time he tried.

    As for HRs it is not always quantity but timing and many times I'd rather 3 or 4 in RA row rather than 2hits then a HR as the 3are a slow bleed. As a defensive player I hated a long inning

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

    Love the Red Sox, Bs, Cs, Pats and enjoy the ride every year.

     

     

     

     

     

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from pumpsie-green. Show pumpsie-green's posts

    Re: Stirring the hornet's nest ...

    In response to lasitter's comment:

    We're all ecstatic with Gomes' walk off HR. I'm giddy that we're on top of the baseball world right now, and particularly when you consider where we were in 2011-2012.

    But we still have to figure out how to beat Baltimore. We have to figure out how to do a few things better so that a team like SD won't take us to the 9th tied 1-1 after a fine performance by Lester.

    The 1 for 13 RISP bugs me. It's the kind of thing that Baltimore does better than we do, day in and out. It's why they have been the king of close / late / extra inning baseball.

    In the 8th vs SD, with 1st & 2nd and no outs, a sac bunt by Nava sets up Peedy to score on Carp's sac fly.

    In the 4th, with Salty on 2nd and no outs, a sac bunt by Snyder sets up a potential Salty score, running on contact with the shortstop throw to get Iggy close at 1st base.

    The Birds have just tightened things up trading for Feldman, and we play them nine more times.

    And: I know we're leading in extra base hits, but someone is going to have to parse this for me:

    http://tinyurl.com/pq3lc4l

    http://tinyurl.com/mabmux

    While the Birds lead baseball with 117 homers on 780 Ks, we're tied for 13th in MLB at 87 HRs / 701 Ks. And yet we've outscored them by 21 runs on the season ...

    A few more dingers would be nice, but I'm sure that'll come in the 2nd half.



    Not having Nava bunt last night in the eighth was a managerial blunder IMO. Pedey would have scored on Carp's fly ball. I would rather have a guy on third base with one out in that situation than on second after Nava's K-besides which they risked a GIDP. If they walk Carp to load the bases I still like bases loaded one out and Salty up rather than runners on first and second and one out. Dumb move, but we won anyway.

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from emp9. Show emp9's posts

    Re: Stirring the hornet's nest ...

    What up PG? Nice day we're having! ... I know, i know... The birds are too loud. Laughing

    "Don't you worry about blank, let me worry about blank"

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from dgalehouse. Show dgalehouse's posts

    Re: Stirring the hornet's nest ...

    You cannot  assume that a sac bunt would have been successful.  Even if it is , you are giving up an out in the hope of a sac fly.  The strategy has been debated to death. With a few exceptions , I think it a bad play. Swing the bat.

    Stabbed by Foulke.

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from PaulLaCourse. Show PaulLaCourse's posts

    Re: Stirring the hornet's nest ...

    In response to pumpsie-green's comment:

    In response to lasitter's comment:

     

    We're all ecstatic with Gomes' walk off HR. I'm giddy that we're on top of the baseball world right now, and particularly when you consider where we were in 2011-2012.

    But we still have to figure out how to beat Baltimore. We have to figure out how to do a few things better so that a team like SD won't take us to the 9th tied 1-1 after a fine performance by Lester.

    The 1 for 13 RISP bugs me. It's the kind of thing that Baltimore does better than we do, day in and out. It's why they have been the king of close / late / extra inning baseball.

    In the 8th vs SD, with 1st & 2nd and no outs, a sac bunt by Nava sets up Peedy to score on Carp's sac fly.

    In the 4th, with Salty on 2nd and no outs, a sac bunt by Snyder sets up a potential Salty score, running on contact with the shortstop throw to get Iggy close at 1st base.

    The Birds have just tightened things up trading for Feldman, and we play them nine more times.

    And: I know we're leading in extra base hits, but someone is going to have to parse this for me:

    http://tinyurl.com/pq3lc4l

    http://tinyurl.com/mabmux

    While the Birds lead baseball with 117 homers on 780 Ks, we're tied for 13th in MLB at 87 HRs / 701 Ks. And yet we've outscored them by 21 runs on the season ...

    A few more dingers would be nice, but I'm sure that'll come in the 2nd half.

     



    Not having Nava bunt last night in the eighth was a managerial blunder IMO. Pedey would have scored on Carp's fly ball. I would rather have a guy on third base with one out in that situation than on second after Nava's K-besides which they risked a GIDP. If they walk Carp to load the bases I still like bases loaded one out and Salty up rather than runners on first and second and one out. Dumb move, but we won anyway.

     




    I don't like Salty up with the bases loaded as he is not clutch in those situations and is usualyy asure strikeout.  I have to agree that with second and third they are going to walk Carp to get the K on Salty. Pretty much a no brainer and a high percentage move. As much as I like Salty he is not very clutch with RISP and strikes out way too much in those situations.

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from pumpsie-green. Show pumpsie-green's posts

    Re: Stirring the hornet's nest ...

    In response to dgalehouse's comment:

    You cannot  assume that a sac bunt would have been successful.  Even if it is , you are giving up an out in the hope of a sac fly.  The strategy has been debated to death. With a few exceptions , I think it a bad play. Swing the bat.

    Stabbed by Foulke.



    You are right! There are very few situations where the sacrifice bunt statistically increases the chance of scoring. Two, in fact. One is with a runner on and the pitcher up. The second is when there are runners on first and second with nobody out and you need just one run-like last night. There are many sabermetric studies that prove this. Here is a quote and link to one of them:

    But not all bunting situations are the same. Here’s rational bunting rule number two: bunting with a man on first and second and no one out is often a good move. Again, here are the numbers: with first and second, none out, a team’s run expectancy is about 1.5, and the team’s chances of scoring at least one run is 64%. With second and third, one out, a team’s run expectancy shrinks to 1.4, but the team’s chances of scoring at least one run increases to 69%. If the team needs one run (as arguably the Yankees did when Granderson bunted, with the score tied 3-3 in the bottom of the seventh), then the first and second none out sacrifice bunt looks like a good move.

     

    Here is the link to the full article (and there are many more that prove that this is a good tactic):

    http://itsaboutthemoney.net/archives/2011/05/23/the-rational-guide-to-bunting-curtis-granderson-edition/

     

     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Stirring the hornet's nest ...

    Salty was one of our better clutch hitters last year. He has struggled this year.

    Late & Close in 2012 (50+ PAs)

    1) Pedey  .786  (-.013 from overall season OPS)

    2) C Ross .768  (-.039)

    3) Salty    .725  (-.017)

    4) AGon   .702   (-.110)

    5) Ortiz    .682  (-.344)

    6) Aviles .604  (.059)

    7) Ellsb    .544  (-.138)

    8) Nava    .479  (-.263)

     

    RBIs in Late & Close situations (PAs):

    15  (88)  Ross

    10  (47)  Midd

    10  (78)  Salty

    10  (80)  AGon

    9    (94)  Pedey

    7    (98)  Aviles

    6    (47)  Ciriaco

    5    (24)  M Gomez

    Sox4ever

     

     

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from maxbialystock. Show maxbialystock's posts

    Re: Stirring the hornet's nest ...

    Good title.  I too thought a bunt was called for in the 8th after that leadoff double.  But I have to be honest and say right now Farrell gets the benefit of the doubt on every single call.  In this case, a lefty hitter normally, usually can move a guy from 2d to 3d just by hitting the ball to the right side of the infield or even with a fly ball to RF.  Plus maybe Nava is a lousy bunter. 

    The Sox are tied with the most wins in MLB a year after they were the dregs of the AL.  Normally, usually, the players get all the credit for a turnaround, but this time some credit has to go to Farrell and maybe Nieves and probably Cherington.  Don't mess with success.

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from Joebreidey. Show Joebreidey's posts

    Re: Stirring the hornet's nest ...

    Again, here are the numbers: with first and second, none out, a team’s run expectancy is about 1.5, and the team’s chances of scoring at least one run is 64%.  With second and third, one out, a team’s run expectancy shrinks to 1.4, but the team’s chances of scoring at least one run increases to 69%.


    Those numbers are good for an overview, but what they don't include is a way to massage the number for both the bunter and the on-deck hitter.

    1-The first consideration is that those are mostly NL numbers.  The average NL pitcher averages maybe 6-10 sacs per year.  Someone like Cain has 64 career sacrifices.  Nava I think has 2 in the pros and 4 in the minors, maybe an average of 1 per year.  I would suggest that the difference between Nava bunting and Cain bunting more than make up the difference between 69% and 64%.

    2-The pitcher is always followed by the lead-off hitter.  The lead-off hitter in the NL strikes out maybe 15.5% of the time, while is at a bout 40% this year.

    3-Nava, against righties, is a well-above average hitter.

    4-And lastly, some consideration has to be given to the .1 RE you give up.  Against Paps, I wouuldn't consider it as worth almost anything.  Against Uehara, the small chance of a 2nd run is worth a couple of percentage points.

    Last night, I was in favor of a bunt.  In retrospect, I think swinging away was better.  Though I doubt there is much of an advantage either way.

     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from pumpsie-green. Show pumpsie-green's posts

    Re: Stirring the hornet's nest ...

    In response to maxbialystock's comment:

    Good title.  I too thought a bunt was called for in the 8th after that leadoff double.  But I have to be honest and say right now Farrell gets the benefit of the doubt on every single call.  In this case, a lefty hitter normally, usually can move a guy from 2d to 3d just by hitting the ball to the right side of the infield or even with a fly ball to RF.  Plus maybe Nava is a lousy bunter. 

    The Sox are tied with the most wins in MLB a year after they were the dregs of the AL.  Normally, usually, the players get all the credit for a turnaround, but this time some credit has to go to Farrell and maybe Nieves and probably Cherington.  Don't mess with success.




    Farrell has done a veru good job this year overall. But everyone makes mistakes. Last night, IMO, he made one by not asking Nava to bunt Pedey to third where he would have been with one out. The fact is that if you consider the analysis over many years of baseball, that play increases your chance of getting a run in.

     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Stirring the hornet's nest ...

    FYI

    The following players will be eligible for the 2014 Rule 5 Draft if they are not added to the 40-man roster by November 20, 2014:

    Anthony Amaya, Jonathan Aro, Matt Barnes, David Chester, Jose Colorado, Sean Coyle, Jacob Dahlstrand, Jason Garcia, Matt Gedman, Sergio Gomez, Williams Jerez, Elis Jimenez, Bryan Johns, Matty Johnson, Zach Kapstein, Cody Koback, Jesus Loya, Chris Martin, Mike McCarthy, Frank Montas, Nick Natoli, Matty Ott, Miguel Pena, Kendrick Perkins, Carlos Pinales, Noe Ramirez, Henry Ramos, Tim Roberson, Robby Scott, Travis Shaw, David Sopilka, Blake Swihart, Drew Turocy

    Sox4ever

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from pumpsie-green. Show pumpsie-green's posts

    Re: Stirring the hornet's nest ...

    In response to Joebreidey's comment:

    Again, here are the numbers: with first and second, none out, a team’s run expectancy is about 1.5, and the team’s chances of scoring at least one run is 64%.  With second and third, one out, a team’s run expectancy shrinks to 1.4, but the team’s chances of scoring at least one run increases to 69%.


    Those numbers are good for an overview, but what they don't include is a way to massage the number for both the bunter and the on-deck hitter.

    1-The first consideration is that those are mostly NL numbers.  The average NL pitcher averages maybe 6-10 sacs per year.  Someone like Cain has 64 career sacrifices.  Nava I think has 2 in the pros and 4 in the minors, maybe an average of 1 per year.  I would suggest that the difference between Nava bunting and Cain bunting more than make up the difference between 69% and 64%.

    2-The pitcher is always followed by the lead-off hitter.  The lead-off hitter in the NL strikes out maybe 15.5% of the time, while is at a bout 40% this year.

    3-Nava, against righties, is a well-above average hitter.

    4-And lastly, some consideration has to be given to the .1 RE you give up.  Against Paps, I wouuldn't consider it as worth almost anything.  Against Uehara, the small chance of a 2nd run is worth a couple of percentage points.

    Last night, I was in favor of a bunt.  In retrospect, I think swinging away was better.  Though I doubt there is much of an advantage either way.



    No, there is no way to massage out the numbers to take into consideration the batter and the on deck hitter. These numbers are OVERALL numbers over a very large number of games in all situations covering good bunters and bad ones. The fact of the matter is that OVERALL bunting with runners on first and second with nobody out increases your chances of scoring one run. Last night, with Koji coming in, I was pretty sure one run would do it. All closers blow saves, but he has been pretty reliable for us this year. As for Nava being a good bunter or a bad one, ALL batters should be able to bunt when they are called on to do it. Its just good fundamental baseball. I do not know how good a bunter he is or if he practices it, so I am going to assume that since he is a professional he has had experience doing it. I was in favor of it last night; I am in favor of it today too because it would have increased our chances of scoring a run.

     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from Hfxsoxnut. Show Hfxsoxnut's posts

    Re: Stirring the hornet's nest ...

    I don't think the bunt was a great call there because it takes the bat away from Nava and Carp, who have both been excellent against RH pitchers.  If Nava bunts them over, Carp is walked to load the bases.  Then they just have to deal with Salty to get the second out.  

     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from DaffyDan. Show DaffyDan's posts

    Re: Stirring the hornet's nest ...

    In response to pumpsie-green's comment:

    In response to Joebreidey's comment:

     

    Again, here are the numbers: with first and second, none out, a team’s run expectancy is about 1.5, and the team’s chances of scoring at least one run is 64%.  With second and third, one out, a team’s run expectancy shrinks to 1.4, but the team’s chances of scoring at least one run increases to 69%.


    Those numbers are good for an overview, but what they don't include is a way to massage the number for both the bunter and the on-deck hitter.

    1-The first consideration is that those are mostly NL numbers.  The average NL pitcher averages maybe 6-10 sacs per year.  Someone like Cain has 64 career sacrifices.  Nava I think has 2 in the pros and 4 in the minors, maybe an average of 1 per year.  I would suggest that the difference between Nava bunting and Cain bunting more than make up the difference between 69% and 64%.

    2-The pitcher is always followed by the lead-off hitter.  The lead-off hitter in the NL strikes out maybe 15.5% of the time, while is at a bout 40% this year.

    3-Nava, against righties, is a well-above average hitter.

    4-And lastly, some consideration has to be given to the .1 RE you give up.  Against Paps, I wouuldn't consider it as worth almost anything.  Against Uehara, the small chance of a 2nd run is worth a couple of percentage points.

    Last night, I was in favor of a bunt.  In retrospect, I think swinging away was better.  Though I doubt there is much of an advantage either way.

     



    No, there is no way to massage out the numbers to take into consideration the batter and the on deck hitter. These numbers are OVERALL numbers over a very large number of games in all situations covering good bunters and bad ones. The fact of the matter is that OVERALL bunting with runners on first and second with nobody out increases your chances of scoring one run. Last night, with Koji coming in, I was pretty sure one run would do it. All closers blow saves, but he has been pretty reliable for us this year. As for Nava being a good bunter or a bad one, ALL batters should be able to bunt when they are called on to do it. Its just good fundamental baseball. I do not know how good a bunter he is or if he practices it, so I am going to assume that since he is a professional he has had experience doing it. I was in favor of it last night; I am in favor of it today too because it would have increased our chances of scoring a run.

     




    That's only when the bunt works. It does not factor in how often it doesn't work, because those numbers don't exist.

    If you give the bunt a high .450 success probability the numbers are still significantly lower for a run scoring chance with men on 1st and 2nd with none out:

    In other words, we will get at least one run in only 594 cases out of 1,000. Before the bunt our chances were 619 out of 1,000, so we have shot ourselves down. Of course, if our hypothetical data in 1 to 5 above are too pessimistic, the correct result will be a little more favorable to bunting, but it would appear that any realistic estimates will lead to the conclusion that bunting is not prof itable on the average.

    http://www.cengage.com/resource_uploads/downloads/0534094929_46534.pdf

    -Daf.

     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from Joebreidey. Show Joebreidey's posts

    Re: Stirring the hornet's nest ...

    No, there is no way to massage out the numbers to take into consideration the batter and the on deck hitter.

    I assume you meant to say 'you and I' couldn't massage the numbers, which is mostly true. 

    For $5,000, I could take apart the existing database, and create some strata about how the numbers change if Carew or Alou are bunting, as opposed to Papi or Ryan Howard are bunting.

    Or how often Salty will score someone from 3rd as opposed to a cleanup hitter.

    But mostly I assume Bill James already has this information.  I'd make a bet that he knows exactly what the difference is between the average NL pitcher bunting, and what the expectations are for your average non-bunting hitter.

     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from Sheriff-Rojas. Show Sheriff-Rojas's posts

    Re: Stirring the hornet's nest ...

    In response to lasitter's comment:

    We're all ecstatic with Gomes' walk off HR. I'm giddy that we're on top of the baseball world right now, and particularly when you consider where we were in 2011-2012.

    But we still have to figure out how to beat Baltimore. We have to figure out how to do a few things better so that a team like SD won't take us to the 9th tied 1-1 after a fine performance by Lester.

    The 1 for 13 RISP bugs me. It's the kind of thing that Baltimore does better than we do, day in and out. It's why they have been the king of close / late / extra inning baseball.

    In the 8th vs SD, with 1st & 2nd and no outs, a sac bunt by Nava sets up Peedy to score on Carp's sac fly.

    In the 4th, with Salty on 2nd and no outs, a sac bunt by Snyder sets up a potential Salty score, running on contact with the shortstop throw to get Iggy close at 1st base.

    The Birds have just tightened things up trading for Feldman, and we play them nine more times.

    And: I know we're leading in extra base hits, but someone is going to have to parse this for me:

    http://tinyurl.com/pq3lc4l

    http://tinyurl.com/mabmux

    While the Birds lead baseball with 117 homers on 780 Ks, we're tied for 13th in MLB at 87 HRs / 701 Ks. And yet we've outscored them by 21 runs on the season ...

    A few more dingers would be nice, but I'm sure that'll come in the 2nd half.



    There's now a thread out there called, "Why are the Red Sox Winning?"  The more curious question to me is, "Why are the Red Sox fans whining?"

     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from pumpsie-green. Show pumpsie-green's posts

    Re: Stirring the hornet's nest ...

    In response to DaffyDan's comment:

    In response to pumpsie-green's comment:

     

    In response to Joebreidey's comment:

     

     

    Again, here are the numbers: with first and second, none out, a team’s run expectancy is about 1.5, and the team’s chances of scoring at least one run is 64%.  With second and third, one out, a team’s run expectancy shrinks to 1.4, but the team’s chances of scoring at least one run increases to 69%.


    Those numbers are good for an overview, but what they don't include is a way to massage the number for both the bunter and the on-deck hitter.

    1-The first consideration is that those are mostly NL numbers.  The average NL pitcher averages maybe 6-10 sacs per year.  Someone like Cain has 64 career sacrifices.  Nava I think has 2 in the pros and 4 in the minors, maybe an average of 1 per year.  I would suggest that the difference between Nava bunting and Cain bunting more than make up the difference between 69% and 64%.

    2-The pitcher is always followed by the lead-off hitter.  The lead-off hitter in the NL strikes out maybe 15.5% of the time, while is at a bout 40% this year.

    3-Nava, against righties, is a well-above average hitter.

    4-And lastly, some consideration has to be given to the .1 RE you give up.  Against Paps, I wouuldn't consider it as worth almost anything.  Against Uehara, the small chance of a 2nd run is worth a couple of percentage points.

    Last night, I was in favor of a bunt.  In retrospect, I think swinging away was better.  Though I doubt there is much of an advantage either way.

     

     



    No, there is no way to massage out the numbers to take into consideration the batter and the on deck hitter. These numbers are OVERALL numbers over a very large number of games in all situations covering good bunters and bad ones. The fact of the matter is that OVERALL bunting with runners on first and second with nobody out increases your chances of scoring one run. Last night, with Koji coming in, I was pretty sure one run would do it. All closers blow saves, but he has been pretty reliable for us this year. As for Nava being a good bunter or a bad one, ALL batters should be able to bunt when they are called on to do it. Its just good fundamental baseball. I do not know how good a bunter he is or if he practices it, so I am going to assume that since he is a professional he has had experience doing it. I was in favor of it last night; I am in favor of it today too because it would have increased our chances of scoring a run.

     

     

     




    That's only when the bunt works. It does not factor in how often it doesn't work, because those numbers don't exist.

    If you give the bunt a high .450 success probability the numbers are still significantly lower for a run scoring chance with men on 1st and 2nd with none out:

     

    In other words, we will get at least one run in only 594 cases out of 1,000. Before the bunt our chances were 619 out of 1,000, so we have shot ourselves down. Of course, if our hypothetical data in 1 to 5 above are too pessimistic, the correct result will be a little more favorable to bunting, but it would appear that any realistic estimates will lead to the conclusion that bunting is not prof itable on the average.

    http://www.cengage.com/resource_uploads/downloads/0534094929_46534.pdf

    -Daf.



    No Dan, that stat means if a bunt is ATTEMPED. Here is a passage from the link I posted above indicating that an ATTEMPTED bunt increases the chances of scoring a run. Sometimes a different but also positive result is achieved, and attempting a bunt is what produces a higher chance of scoring a run:  

    Up until this point, we’ve discussed successful sacrifice bunts, where the batter is out and the runners advance.  But not all bunts produce this result: according to “The Book”, bunts with men on base result in a sacrifice about half the time. The bunter achieves a different but positive result about 19% of the time (anything from a walk to a bunt single to a two-strike swinging hit). Another 31% of results are negative: the batter strikes out, or bunts into a force play, or hits into a double play (either bunting or eventually swinging away).  But the positives here outweigh the negatives: the average run expectancy following a sacrifice attempt (ignoring all other factors, including number of outs and runners on base) is about .13 higher than that following a successful sacrifice where the batter is out and the runners advance.

     
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  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from pumpsie-green. Show pumpsie-green's posts

    Re: Stirring the hornet's nest ...

    In response to RedSoxFan88's comment:

     

    Teresa Hanafin is a devout, gunho, obsessed Red Sox fan and yet she keeps taking directions on which posters annoy Pumpsie and who should be banned. Teresa Hanafin can be emailed or phoned and Pumpsie calls her and reads her the riot act on who is a Red Sox fan and who isn't. We all know better than Teresa that Pumpsie is a faux Red Sox fan.  Pumpsie does an excellent snow job on Teresa. Maybe Teresa likes Pumpsie because her forum needs a perpetual pessimist and negative person.  Call Teresa or email her and let her know that Pumpsie is not a Red Sox fan. Shame on Teresa for selling out.



    Pike, posting this on one thread was not enough for you? Have you learned nothing from your discipline by BDC? Hard headed, you are.

     
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  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from emp9. Show emp9's posts

    Re: Stirring the hornet's nest ...

    In response to RedSoxFan88's comment:

     

    Teresa Hanafin is a devout, gunho, obsessed Red Sox fan and yet she keeps taking directions on which posters annoy Pumpsie and who should be banned. Teresa Hanafin can be emailed or phoned and Pumpsie calls her and reads her the riot act on who is a Red Sox fan and who isn't. We all know better than Teresa that Pumpsie is a faux Red Sox fan.  Pumpsie does an excellent snow job on Teresa. Maybe Teresa likes Pumpsie because her forum needs a perpetual pessimist and negative person.  Call Teresa or email her and let her know that Pumpsie is not a Red Sox fan. Shame on Teresa for selling out.



    Just to let you know, Pumpsie Green spends alot of time in the RS chat room watchin' games. Have yet to see you there. I don't agree w/ half of what he's got to say but that's alright. He's still a Sox fan. Let's stop the bs.

     
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