Re: Stirring the hornet's nest ...
posted at 7/4/2013 6:06 PM EDT
In response to DaffyDan's comment:
In response to pumpsie-green's comment:
In response to Joebreidey's comment:
Again, here are the numbers: with first and second, none out, a team’s run expectancy is about 1.5, and the team’s chances of scoring at least one run is 64%. With second and third, one out, a team’s run expectancy shrinks to 1.4, but the team’s chances of scoring at least one run increases to 69%.
Those numbers are good for an overview, but what they don't include is a way to massage the number for both the bunter and the on-deck hitter.
1-The first consideration is that those are mostly NL numbers. The average NL pitcher averages maybe 6-10 sacs per year. Someone like Cain has 64 career sacrifices. Nava I think has 2 in the pros and 4 in the minors, maybe an average of 1 per year. I would suggest that the difference between Nava bunting and Cain bunting more than make up the difference between 69% and 64%.
2-The pitcher is always followed by the lead-off hitter. The lead-off hitter in the NL strikes out maybe 15.5% of the time, while is at a bout 40% this year.
3-Nava, against righties, is a well-above average hitter.
4-And lastly, some consideration has to be given to the .1 RE you give up. Against Paps, I wouuldn't consider it as worth almost anything. Against Uehara, the small chance of a 2nd run is worth a couple of percentage points.
Last night, I was in favor of a bunt. In retrospect, I think swinging away was better. Though I doubt there is much of an advantage either way.
No, there is no way to massage out the numbers to take into consideration the batter and the on deck hitter. These numbers are OVERALL numbers over a very large number of games in all situations covering good bunters and bad ones. The fact of the matter is that OVERALL bunting with runners on first and second with nobody out increases your chances of scoring one run. Last night, with Koji coming in, I was pretty sure one run would do it. All closers blow saves, but he has been pretty reliable for us this year. As for Nava being a good bunter or a bad one, ALL batters should be able to bunt when they are called on to do it. Its just good fundamental baseball. I do not know how good a bunter he is or if he practices it, so I am going to assume that since he is a professional he has had experience doing it. I was in favor of it last night; I am in favor of it today too because it would have increased our chances of scoring a run.
That's only when the bunt works. It does not factor in how often it doesn't work, because those numbers don't exist.
If you give the bunt a high .450 success probability the numbers are still significantly lower for a run scoring chance with men on 1st and 2nd with none out:
In other words, we will get at least one run in only 594 cases out of 1,000. Before the bunt our chances were 619 out of 1,000, so we have shot ourselves down. Of course, if our hypothetical data in 1 to 5 above are too pessimistic, the correct result will be a little more favorable to bunting, but it would appear that any realistic estimates will lead to the conclusion that bunting is not prof itable on the average.
No Dan, that stat means if a bunt is ATTEMPED. Here is a passage from the link I posted above indicating that an ATTEMPTED bunt increases the chances of scoring a run. Sometimes a different but also positive result is achieved, and attempting a bunt is what produces a higher chance of scoring a run:
Up until this point, we’ve discussed successful sacrifice bunts, where the batter is out and the runners advance. But not all bunts produce this result: according to “The Book”, bunts with men on base result in a sacrifice about half the time. The bunter achieves a different but positive result about 19% of the time (anything from a walk to a bunt single to a two-strike swinging hit). Another 31% of results are negative: the batter strikes out, or bunts into a force play, or hits into a double play (either bunting or eventually swinging away). But the positives here outweigh the negatives: the average run expectancy following a sacrifice attempt (ignoring all other factors, including number of outs and runners on base) is about .13 higher than that following a successful sacrifice where the batter is out and the runners advance.