Stirring the hornet's nest ...

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from pumpsie-green. Show pumpsie-green's posts

    Re: Stirring the hornet's nest ...

    In response to RedSoxKimmi's comment:

    In response to pumpsie-green's comment:

     

    I can't help it if that sentence is actually in there. It is. I didn't write it or make it up. So I feel free to quote it. The fact of the matter is that in the specific situation the Sox were in (runners on first and second, nobody out) the chances of scoring a run INCREASE by a bunt attempt. That was shown to be true by analyzing a very large number of games over a wide array of circumstances. I agree that a sac bunt is statistically ALMOST never beneficial, but that situation is one of the two situations where a sac bunt attempt INCREASES the chances of scoring a run. With a very effective closer had we scored a run there we would most likely not have come to bat in the ninth.   

     

    That is incorrect. The discussion was EXACTLY about playing for one run in the manner that would have been most likely to lead to that run which, in this case, was a bunt by Nava. Those are the facts; they are indisputable: with runners on first and second and nobody out a bunt attempt raises your team's likelihood of scoring a run.

    As far as what "Joey" has to say about context or anything else for that matter, he comes into every discussion biased due to our history. So I frequently disregard his posts. Thats human nature. I try to stay away from arrogant know-it-alls.

    Ummmm....we were NOT down by one run, we were tied. Where does it say in this paragraph that bunting does not increase the chance of scoring a single run with runners on first and second and nobody out? Am I missing it? I can show you a reference that makes that very conclusion if you like. 

     

     

    We were not discussing playing for one run by any means.  We we specifically discussing whether Nava should have sac bunted (and I know what the score of that game was).  You are quoting things without context, and you are looking only at stats that support your opinion and disregarding those that don't. 

    Yes, I know that a sac bunt in that situation increases the chance of scoring a single run, on average.  I also know that, on average, it also decreases the win expectancy of the game.  I also know that with a hitter of Nava's caliber, sac bunting decreases the chance of scoring at least one run. 

     



    Pardon me, but I WAS discussing playing for one run as a means to win the game. You may have been discussing something else, but I wasn't. The means of scoring that run was a discussion of whether or not Nava should have bunted, and that is a matter of opinion. I maintain that it was the right thing to do; you feel it was not and I understand your reasoning and respect it. But I am not convinced of it by any means. We will have to agree to disagree, congenially, I hope.

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from craze4sox. Show craze4sox's posts

    Re: Stirring the hornet's nest ...

    In response to lasitter's comment:

    We're all ecstatic with Gomes' walk off HR. I'm giddy that we're on top of the baseball world right now, and particularly when you consider where we were in 2011-2012.

    But we still have to figure out how to beat Baltimore. We have to figure out how to do a few things better so that a team like SD won't take us to the 9th tied 1-1 after a fine performance by Lester.

    The 1 for 13 RISP bugs me. It's the kind of thing that Baltimore does better than we do, day in and out. It's why they have been the king of close / late / extra inning baseball.

    In the 8th vs SD, with 1st & 2nd and no outs, a sac bunt by Nava sets up Peedy to score on Carp's sac fly.

    In the 4th, with Salty on 2nd and no outs, a sac bunt by Snyder sets up a potential Salty score, running on contact with the shortstop throw to get Iggy close at 1st base.

    The Birds have just tightened things up trading for Feldman, and we play them nine more times.

    And: I know we're leading in extra base hits, but someone is going to have to parse this for me:

    http://tinyurl.com/pq3lc4l

    http://tinyurl.com/mabmux

    While the Birds lead baseball with 117 homers on 780 Ks, we're tied for 13th in MLB at 87 HRs / 701 Ks. And yet we've outscored them by 21 runs on the season ...

    A few more dingers would be nice, but I'm sure that'll come in the 2nd half.



    The key to beating Baltimore is very simple.  It's called good pitching stops good hitting which is why adding a guy like Garza to Jon, Lackey and Clay could be a key move.

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from pumpsie-green. Show pumpsie-green's posts

    Re: Stirring the hornet's nest ...

    In response to craze4sox's comment:

    In response to lasitter's comment:

     

    We're all ecstatic with Gomes' walk off HR. I'm giddy that we're on top of the baseball world right now, and particularly when you consider where we were in 2011-2012.

    But we still have to figure out how to beat Baltimore. We have to figure out how to do a few things better so that a team like SD won't take us to the 9th tied 1-1 after a fine performance by Lester.

    The 1 for 13 RISP bugs me. It's the kind of thing that Baltimore does better than we do, day in and out. It's why they have been the king of close / late / extra inning baseball.

    In the 8th vs SD, with 1st & 2nd and no outs, a sac bunt by Nava sets up Peedy to score on Carp's sac fly.

    In the 4th, with Salty on 2nd and no outs, a sac bunt by Snyder sets up a potential Salty score, running on contact with the shortstop throw to get Iggy close at 1st base.

    The Birds have just tightened things up trading for Feldman, and we play them nine more times.

    And: I know we're leading in extra base hits, but someone is going to have to parse this for me:

    http://tinyurl.com/pq3lc4l

    http://tinyurl.com/mabmux

    While the Birds lead baseball with 117 homers on 780 Ks, we're tied for 13th in MLB at 87 HRs / 701 Ks. And yet we've outscored them by 21 runs on the season ...

    A few more dingers would be nice, but I'm sure that'll come in the 2nd half.

     



    The key to beating Baltimore is very simple.  It's called good pitching stops good hitting which is why adding a guy like Garza to Jon, Lackey and Clay could be a key move.

     




    If Garza comes on board, who is out of the rotation and what do we do with them? Even Doubront has had a sub 3 ERA since mid May. Do you take him out? Dempster? Where would he go? He is not going to Pawtucket or to the pen. I would not rock the SP boat right now. Its performing at a high level already. Its the pen that needs to be bolstered.

     
  4. This post has been removed.

     
Sections
Shortcuts

Share