Stolen Bases.

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from bosoxhero2. Show bosoxhero2's posts

    Stolen Bases.

    Injuries are a part of the game.i think with JBJ and Sizemore and Victorino stealing bases i think the cumulitive amount could very well be the same as last year.Sizemore has speed.Victorino will get a lot of chances at the top of the order with Ellsbury gone.JBJ may not have the outright speed of Ells but is a good baserunner who will pick his spots.Yes if the all get injured in the season i may be totally wrong.but i think it will equal out.

     

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from Beantowne. Show Beantowne's posts

    Re: Stolen Bases.

    In response to bosoxhero2's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Injuries are a part of the game.i think with JBJ and Sizemore and Victorino stealing bases i think the cumulitive amount could very well be the same as last year.Sizemore has speed.Victorino will get a lot of chances at the top of the order with Ellsbury gone.JBJ may not have the outright speed of Ells but is a good baserunner who will pick his spots.Yes if the all get injured in the season i may be totally wrong.but i think it will equal out.

     

    [/QUOTE]

    Base stealing is not all that big a deal...it's the threat of the steal and the cause and effect it has on the defense, the pitcher and the catchers pitch selections...IMHO what made Ellsbury valueable was his ability to score from first on a double and take the extra base...Something Victorino, Sizemore and Bradley can all do...in the end the name of the game for all three is getting on base. If they combine for a plus .350 they'll score plenty of runs...

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from Bill-806. Show Bill-806's posts

    Re: Stolen Bases.

    In response to RigatoniT's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    I also disagree that it isn't all that "big a deal". After decades of station to station ball the team finally learned to use speed as a weapon in the offensive arsenal. It matters a lot. 

    If you want to break down every stolen base then maybe you can say "big deal" but over the course of year and certainly in the play-offs stolen-bases can be and have been huge.

    [/QUOTE]BINGO DAT  !!


     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from SonicsMonksLyresVicars. Show SonicsMonksLyresVicars's posts

    Re: Stolen Bases.

    There is little correlation between SB and runs, I thought that was pretty widely accepted these days.  2013 AL SB leaders:

    1. KC
    2. Tex
    3. Bos
    4. Cle
    5. NY
    6. Tor
    7. Hou
    8. White Sox

    2013 Run leaders:

    1. Bos
    2. Det
    3. Oak
    4. Cle
    5. Bal
    6. Laa
    7. Tex
    8. Tor

     

     

     

     

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from SpacemanEephus. Show SpacemanEephus's posts

    Re: Stolen Bases.

    In response to RigatoniT's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    I also disagree that it isn't all that "big a deal". After decades of station to station ball the team finally learned to use speed as a weapon in the offensive arsenal. It matters a lot. 

    If you want to break down every stolen base then maybe you can say "big deal" but over the course of year and certainly in the play-offs stolen-bases can be and have been huge.

    [/QUOTE]

    I agree that stolen bases are a powerful weapon.  But, in a rare moment of agreement with Rigatoni, I think it is really the threat of the stolen base that carries the greater weight and has a greater effect on the game.  You don't need to send Victorino, Sizemore, Pedey, JBJ all that much in order for their speed to impact the game.  Going first to third, breaking up pitchers rhythym, altering defensive alignments with threat of hit and run.  The timely stolen base, no doubt, can be a dagger.  But the havoc that the threat causes is what it is all about. 

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from Bill-806. Show Bill-806's posts

    Re: Stolen Bases.

    In response to SpacemanEephus' comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to RigatoniT's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    I also disagree that it isn't all that "big a deal". After decades of station to station ball the team finally learned to use speed as a weapon in the offensive arsenal. It matters a lot. 

    If you want to break down every stolen base then maybe you can say "big deal" but over the course of year and certainly in the play-offs stolen-bases can be and have been huge.

    [/QUOTE]

    I agree that stolen bases are a powerful weapon.  But, in a rare moment of agreement with Rigatoni, I think it is really the threat of the stolen base that carries the greater weight and has a greater effect on the game.  You don't need to send Victorino, Sizemore, Pedey, JBJ all that much in order for their speed to impact the game.  Going first to third, breaking up pitchers rhythym, altering defensive alignments with threat of hit and run.  The timely stolen base, no doubt, can be a dagger.  But the havoc that the threat causes is what it is all about. 

    [/QUOTE]AGREE !!!


     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from bosoxhero2. Show bosoxhero2's posts

    Re: Stolen Bases.

    In response to Bill-806's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to SpacemanEephus' comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to RigatoniT's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    I also disagree that it isn't all that "big a deal". After decades of station to station ball the team finally learned to use speed as a weapon in the offensive arsenal. It matters a lot. 

    If you want to break down every stolen base then maybe you can say "big deal" but over the course of year and certainly in the play-offs stolen-bases can be and have been huge.

    [/QUOTE]

    I agree that stolen bases are a powerful weapon.  But, in a rare moment of agreement with Rigatoni, I think it is really the threat of the stolen base that carries the greater weight and has a greater effect on the game.  You don't need to send Victorino, Sizemore, Pedey, JBJ all that much in order for their speed to impact the game.  Going first to third, breaking up pitchers rhythym, altering defensive alignments with threat of hit and run.  The timely stolen base, no doubt, can be a dagger.  But the havoc that the threat causes is what it is all about. 

    [/QUOTE]AGREE !!!


    [/QUOTE]

    today sizemore and pedroia attempted stolen bases.even with the threat of stolen bases teams will be more apt to throw fastballs.bradley,sizemore and pedroia.i watched bogaerts in the minors he is not a person to not try to steal.

     

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from dgalehouse. Show dgalehouse's posts

    Re: Stolen Bases.

    To downplay the importance of stolen bases is totally absurd. It is pretty clear that a runner on second has a better chance of scoring than a runner on first. On third, even more so. The only other factor is that a good success rate  is needed. If you are getting thrown out too often, it defeats the whole purpose.

     
  9. This post has been removed.

     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from pumpsie-green. Show pumpsie-green's posts

    Re: Stolen Bases.

    In response to crowtrobot's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to dgalehouse's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    To downplay the importance of stolen bases is totally absurd. It is pretty clear that a runner on second has a better chance of scoring than a runner on first. On third, even more so. The only other factor is that a good success rate  is needed. If you are getting thrown out too often, it defeats the whole purpose.

    [/QUOTE]

    You didn't get a BINGO DAT or I AGREE from Bill-SFB, so I know your post is valid.

    [/QUOTE]

    Is it really necessary to keep going after Bill-or anyone else here? Why not just discuss the issues without the personal stuff-which adds nothing to the board.

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from Bill-806. Show Bill-806's posts

    Re: Stolen Bases.

    In response to pumpsie-green's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to crowtrobot's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to dgalehouse's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    To downplay the importance of stolen bases is totally absurd. It is pretty clear that a runner on second has a better chance of scoring than a runner on first. On third, even more so. The only other factor is that a good success rate  is needed. If you are getting thrown out too often, it defeats the whole purpose.

    [/QUOTE]

    You didn't get a BINGO DAT or I AGREE from Bill-SFB, so I know your post is valid.

    [/QUOTE]

    Is it really necessary to keep going after Bill-or anyone else here? Why not just discuss the issues without the personal stuff-which adds nothing to the board.

    [/QUOTE]BINGO DAT !!!!!


     
  12. This post has been removed.

     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from Bill-806. Show Bill-806's posts

    Re: Stolen Bases.

    In response to crowtrobot's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to Bill-806's comment:

    [QUOTE]

     

    In response to pumpsie-green's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to crowtrobot's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to dgalehouse's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    To downplay the importance of stolen bases is totally absurd. It is pretty clear that a runner on second has a better chance of scoring than a runner on first. On third, even more so. The only other factor is that a good success rate  is needed. If you are getting thrown out too often, it defeats the whole purpose.

     

    [/QUOTE]

    You didn't get a BINGO DAT or I AGREE from Bill-SFB, so I know your post is valid.

     

    [/QUOTE]

    Is it really necessary to keep going after Bill-or anyone else here? Why not just discuss the issues without the personal stuff-which adds nothing to the board.

    [/QUOTE]BINGO DAT !!!!!


    [/QUOTE]

    Who made you hall monitor? As for Bill-SFB, he craves attention, so I'm doing him a favor.

    [/QUOTE]Attention ???? WOW,  RUDE  !!!


     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedSoxKimmi. Show RedSoxKimmi's posts

    Re: Stolen Bases.

    In response to dgalehouse's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    To downplay the importance of stolen bases is totally absurd. It is pretty clear that a runner on second has a better chance of scoring than a runner on first. On third, even more so. The only other factor is that a good success rate  is needed. If you are getting thrown out too often, it defeats the whole purpose.

    [/QUOTE]

     

    No, it's not absurd.  Most people place far too much value on the stolen base.  That's not to say that a stolen base in the right situation isn't extemely valuable, but stolen bases on the whole are overrated.  In truth, not giving up the out via a CS is far more valuable than an extra base.  That's why the break even point for stolen bases is so high.

    Furthermore, there is no evidence that the threat of a stolen base has any secondary offensive value by distracting the pitcher or by putting pressure on the defense.  The value comes from having a runner on first, regardless of his speed, because any runner of first disrupts the normal defensive alignment.  

    Also, studies have shown that the threat of a stolen base negatively impacts the batter at the plate.

     

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from georom4. Show georom4's posts

    Re: Stolen Bases.

    i loved watching Ells steal....def one of the most underrated aspects of the game...it's like he had 50 doubles last year...simply move him over and he scores easily on a hit, sacrifice, fc, wild pitch - not to mention putting serious pressure on the pitcher (see clay w/risp) 

    one reason why i think we should just bite the bullet and start JBJ - he may hit less than the other but he will score just as much imo

     

     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from dgalehouse. Show dgalehouse's posts

    Re: Stolen Bases.

    In response to RedSoxKimmi's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to dgalehouse's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    To downplay the importance of stolen bases is totally absurd. It is pretty clear that a runner on second has a better chance of scoring than a runner on first. On third, even more so. The only other factor is that a good success rate  is needed. If you are getting thrown out too often, it defeats the whole purpose.

    [/QUOTE]

     

    No, it's not absurd.  Most people place far too much value on the stolen base.  That's not to say that a stolen base in the right situation isn't extemely valuable, but stolen bases on the whole are overrated.  In truth, not giving up the out via a CS is far more valuable than an extra base.  That's why the break even point for stolen bases is so high.

    Furthermore, there is no evidence that the threat of a stolen base has any secondary offensive value by distracting the pitcher or by putting pressure on the defense.  The value comes from having a runner on first, regardless of his speed, because any runner of first disrupts the normal defensive alignment.  

    Also, studies have shown that the threat of a stolen base negatively impacts the batter at the plate.

     

    [/QUOTE]


    Of course it's absurd.  How can a runner on second or third not be better than a runner on first? And without even wasting an out with a sac bunt.  It defies all logic. I did make the point that a high success rate is essential.

     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from SonicsMonksLyresVicars. Show SonicsMonksLyresVicars's posts

    Re: Stolen Bases.

    Does anybody have any numbers to back up the assertion that stolen bases are closely correlated to runs scored? 

     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from dgalehouse. Show dgalehouse's posts

    Re: Stolen Bases.

    I watched the first inning of the Yankee game today. Gardner led off with a walk, stole second , went to third on Jeter's grounder, then scored on Ellsbury's grounder. One run without a hit. Without the ball even leaving the infield. Does not happen without the steal. The stolen base , in itself, does not score the run. The runner still has to be driven in. Some teams are better than others at driving in runs. But the fact that it is easier to drive a run in from second than it is from first, is a given. It should not be debated. 

     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedSoxKimmi. Show RedSoxKimmi's posts

    Re: Stolen Bases.

    In response to dgalehouse's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Of course it's absurd.  How can a runner on second or third not be better than a runner on first? And without even wasting an out with a sac bunt.  It defies all logic. I did make the point that a high success rate is essential.

    [/QUOTE]


    For every move that is made that seems to have a positive impact, there is an offsetting negative impact, to some extent.  Believe it or not, most secondary impact argues in favor of keeping the runner at first.

    My point is not that teams should never steal bases, just that they are overrated.  Again, there is great value in properly used stolen base.  Stolen bases can be extremely valuable when one run is extremely important.  Stealing in the early innings is an overused strategy.  Also, having a base stealer in the lead off spot in lieu of an on base guy is a mistake.

    The general consensus is that the break even rate for stolen bases has been about 70-75%.  Most teams are right around or below that rate, so they are essentially getting no gain in offense by stealing bases over the course of the season. 

    The Red Sox did well at 87%, but even with that, the impact of the stolen base is not as great as most people would think.  They scored a lot of runs because they got on base.

     

     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedSoxKimmi. Show RedSoxKimmi's posts

    Re: Stolen Bases.

    In response to dgalehouse's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    I watched the first inning of the Yankee game today. Gardner led off with a walk, stole second , went to third on Jeter's grounder, then scored on Ellsbury's grounder. One run without a hit. Without the ball even leaving the infield. Does not happen without the steal. The stolen base , in itself, does not score the run. The runner still has to be driven in. Some teams are better than others at driving in runs. But the fact that it is easier to drive a run in from second than it is from first, is a given. It should not be debated. 

    [/QUOTE]

    The key to that sequence was Gardner getting on base, not his steal.

     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from dgalehouse. Show dgalehouse's posts

    Re: Stolen Bases.

    Some guys should have the green light to steal, some should not. A high success rate is very important. But if you have a guy who can steal with a high rate of success, it makes no sense to stay on first. Get in scoring position. The best base stealers know when to go and when not to.

     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from dgalehouse. Show dgalehouse's posts

    Re: Stolen Bases.

    In response to RedSoxKimmi's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to dgalehouse's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    I watched the first inning of the Yankee game today. Gardner led off with a walk, stole second , went to third on Jeter's grounder, then scored on Ellsbury's grounder. One run without a hit. Without the ball even leaving the infield. Does not happen without the steal. The stolen base , in itself, does not score the run. The runner still has to be driven in. Some teams are better than others at driving in runs. But the fact that it is easier to drive a run in from second than it is from first, is a given. It should not be debated. 

    [/QUOTE]

    The key to that sequence was Gardner getting on base, not his steal.

    [/QUOTE]


    Come on now, Kimmi. Of course you have to reach base before you can steal. That is not the point. The debate is about what to do once you reach base. To steal or not to steal? In this case, the steal resulted in a run scoring. 

     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from SonicsMonksLyresVicars. Show SonicsMonksLyresVicars's posts

    Re: Stolen Bases.

    This isn't a particularly in-depth analysis of the theoretical value of the SB, but I think it's simple, concise and measured:  http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2014/2/20/5425744/stolen-bases-lack-value

    I think the final paragraph shuts down this debate for both sides i.e. the sum of a team's SB isn't particularly relevant, but there are situations where the potential gain from a SB outweighs the potential loss from a CS:

    "The proper use of Big Data in baseball isn't identifying macro trends and blithely dismissing strategies out of hand, but instead using it to influence the 5-10 games a year that come down to a game decision and seeing if the data can provide a competitive advantage or novel insight. With five teams making the playoffs in each league, the importance of even one game takes on additional significance, and it makes sense to see if time-honored strategies like base stealing actually translate into runs, and by extension wins."

     

     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from crazy-world-of-troybrown. Show crazy-world-of-troybrown's posts

    Re: Stolen Bases.

    I predict 30 stloen bases by those 3. I think Ellsbury will get 50. Just too fast, and good base stealer.

     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedSoxKimmi. Show RedSoxKimmi's posts

    Re: Stolen Bases.

    In response to dgalehouse's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Some guys should have the green light to steal, some should not. A high success rate is very important. But if you have a guy who can steal with a high rate of success, it makes no sense to stay on first. Get in scoring position. The best base stealers know when to go and when not to.

    [/QUOTE]

     

    I would not give a runner, even one as successful as Ellsbury, the green light to steal whenever he thinks he can do so successfully.  In some cases, you could be negatively impacting the team's run scoring in the inning, even if the steal is successful.

    You may take the bat out of one of your best hitter's hands by having him intentionally walked.  You close the hole that you would have on the right side of the infield by not having the runner held on first.  You may change the entire approach of the following hitters by giving them a small ball mentality to get one run in rather than playing for the big inning.

    If you have a good offense to begin with, stolen bases become even less important.

     

     

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