Re: Sugar Coaters and Small Sample Size Gurus
posted at 5/3/2014 10:45 AM EDT
In response to maxbialystock's comment:
I am more and more convinced Andrewmitch's arguments are off base. He attacks Bogaerts for his fielding but conveniently ignores the whole player, who in fact has a WAR of .5, which is good enough to rank him the 5th best overall SS in the AL. And we are talking about a 21 year old MLB SS who is only going to get better, but apparently not good enough to suit Andrewmitch. Same deal for Bradley, whose defense Andrewmitch conveniently ignores. Now I do agree Ellsbury is easily the better offensive player. Heck, at $24M/year he better be. But guess what? Ellsbury's overall WAR is 1.0, 3d best in the AL, but Bradley's WAR is .6, 8th best in the AL, and again Bradley is the rookie. So far, I think the two rookies have held up pretty well. And what is the stuff about how Napoli is the only good hitter in the lineup and needs to be protected? I am delighted he is off to a good start, but Ortiz will once again prove he is the best hitter in the lineup and he guy needing protection. Napoli strikes out a lot, especially against anyone with a decent breaking ball. He has by far the best OPS in the lineup and bats cleanup, but has just one more rbi than Ortiz, 3 more than Pierzynski, and 4 more than--are you ready for this?--Bradley, who has 13 rbi's, the same number Ellsbury has, FWIW. But the real point is that this lineup will succeed only if the whole lineup--or at least the top third, the middle third, and the bottom third--are contributing. So far with Pierzynski and Bradley usually in the bottom third, they have contributed. Top third, no question, has struggled, but you gotta believe in Pedroia, Victorino, and Ortiz. And the leaves the middle third of Napoli, Gomes/Sizemore, and Bogaerts, which again I think has potential. Platooning Sizemore just might be the ideal way to use him, and I think there is no way he can't hit if he is healthy. Finally, Andrewmitch maligns the starting pitching. A quick glance at the stats page (ESPN), shows that Buchholz has had 4 quality starts of 6 overall and Doubront has had 3 of 6. Not bad for the 4th and 5th starters. Oh, and the Sox have easily the lowest ERA in the AL East.
All in all, while I share Andrewmitch's frustration and have been guilty myself in the past of over-reacting to a bad May, I think his specific assertions don't bear up under any reasonable scrutiny. I continue to believe these guys will get better and that two decent albeit sniveling excuses are the cold weather and the schedule, which has been a steady dose of AL East teams plus Milwaukee, best record in MLB, Oakland, most wins in the AL, and the so-so White Sox.
some of the comments you made were items that I did not comment on (Ortiz, Naps, Vic).......
Now, yes Boggarts I criticize his glove. I don't talk about his bat b/c his bat is great. Opposite w/ JBJ - his bat concerns me and his glove does not. But I don't even bash JBJ - I simply say if we are to have him in CF then we need to make it up w/ a big bat in LF. And when did say we should had kept Ellsbury? Again, point is we need to find a place to make up losing his bat which is in LF right now. Saying Sizemore can't hit if he's healthy is irresonsible; he is healthy and he is not hitting.
Buck has somehow turned in some QS's but history (robust sample size) has proven to me to not rely on that lasting for any period of time; his body is a ticking time bomb.