Swing, for crying out loud!

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from joel49. Show joel49's posts

    Swing, for crying out loud!

    Posted this in the thread about strike outs, but decided to give it its own thread.

    I've said it before, but I believe it bears repeating here.  Time after time it seems the Sox take strike one, more often than not a fastball over the heart of the plate. So many of those at bats result in strike outs or weak ground outs that one would think they'd change their approach and swing at the first good pitch they see rather than allowing themselves to fall behind 0-1 or 0-2. Anyone scouting this team knows they can pretty much get away with that first pitch meatball against most players on this team. Working the count is just not working right now. Isn't it about time to change things up and come out swinging? Just once can't Ells swing at the first pitch of the game?  Of Ricky Henderson's 81 leadoff HR's, I'm guessing a few came off of that first pitch.

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from JimfromFlorida. Show JimfromFlorida's posts

    Re: Swing, for crying out loud!

     

       

     These are the team numbers

    265 .340 .441 .781

     which place them 3rd in the AL they are 2nd in BBs, for ground outs they are 13th fewest, GIDP they are 10th fewest, 2nd in number of pitches seen and have done that in 100 t0 200 less plate appearances. Their only nad offensive number is 3rd in Ks.

    So before you crap all over their approach please check the numbers PLEASE

     

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from royf19. Show royf19's posts

    Re: Swing, for crying out loud!

    In response to JimfromFlorida's comment:

     

       

     These are the team numbers

    265 .340 .441 .781

     which place them 3rd in the AL they are 2nd in BBs, for ground outs they are 13th fewest, GIDP they are 10th fewest, 2nd in number of pitches seen and have done that in 100 t0 200 less plate appearances. Their only nad offensive number is 3rd in Ks.

    So before you crap all over their approach please check the numbers PLEASE

     




    Nice pull on those numbers. I wanted to look them up myself after I saw the thread but hadn't got the chance yet.

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: Swing, for crying out loud!

    I think if you know a certain pitcher is known for getting that 1st pitch strike you can do it to throw him off. But overall they have a good approach. I just want Ells to bunt for once and use his speed.

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from JimfromFlorida. Show JimfromFlorida's posts

    Re: Swing, for crying out loud!

    In response to southpaw777's comment:

    I think if you know a certain pitcher is known for getting that 1st pitch strike you can do it to throw him off. But overall they have a good approach. I just want Ells to bunt for once and use his speed.



    You do know that in the MLB especially in the AL that the numbers say a bunt attempt is a wasted AB. Yep it works sometimes but far more often it doesn't.

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from Kingface12. Show Kingface12's posts

    Re: Swing, for crying out loud!

    In response to southpaw777's comment:

     

    I think if you know a certain pitcher is known for getting that 1st pitch strike you can do it to throw him off. But overall they have a good approach. I just want Ells to bunt for once and use his speed.

     




    Not sure why it ever went away but the bunt for a base hit USED to be a HUGE weapon.  I never thought I would make an Otis Nixon reference but he was the last guy I can remember that made bunting look like an art.  Brett Butler also comes to mind.  Somebody with so much pure speed like Ells should be able to get at least a dozen or more hits a year dropping a bunt.  Maybe it's a Red Sox thing.....as soon as you play for the Sox your bunting skills will either disappear altogether or never be utilized..... 

     

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from joel49. Show joel49's posts

    Re: Swing, for crying out loud!

    In response to JimfromFlorida's comment:

     

     

       

     These are the team numbers

    265 .340 .441 .781

     which place them 3rd in the AL they are 2nd in BBs, for ground outs they are 13th fewest, GIDP they are 10th fewest, 2nd in number of pitches seen and have done that in 100 t0 200 less plate appearances. Their only nad offensive number is 3rd in Ks.

    So before you crap all over their approach please check the numbers PLEASE

     

     




    Easy there, Jim.  When your team is in a collective slump and you're having trouble getting runs across, do you not think it is time to try something different?  The numbers that you have posted were, I'm guessing, largely accumulated during the month of April.  How about pulling the numbers for May?  All I'm saying is that occasionally a change is in order.  Sometimes it's not all about the numbers.  Do you not think it would be prudent for Ells, e.g., to swing at the first pitch of a ball game given his downturn?

     

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from JimfromFlorida. Show JimfromFlorida's posts

    Re: Swing, for crying out loud!

    In response to joel49's comment:

    In response to JimfromFlorida's comment:

     

     

       

     These are the team numbers

    265 .340 .441 .781

     which place them 3rd in the AL they are 2nd in BBs, for ground outs they are 13th fewest, GIDP they are 10th fewest, 2nd in number of pitches seen and have done that in 100 t0 200 less plate appearances. Their only nad offensive number is 3rd in Ks.

    So before you crap all over their approach please check the numbers PLEASE

     

     




    Easy there, Jim.  When your team is in a collective slump and you're having trouble getting runs across, do you not think it is time to try something different?  The numbers that you have posted were, I'm guessing, largely accumulated during the month of April.  How about pulling the numbers for May?  All I'm saying is that occasionally a change is in order.  Sometimes it's not all about the numbers.  Do you not think it would be prudent for Ells, e.g., to swing at the first pitch of a ball game given his downturn?

     



    You do not change your approach. That is when you start making major problems with every thing else. You look at tape and try and find out what is happening and then go out and hope the work pays off BUT NEVER change your approach. If you always take the first pitch it is usually to get a bead on the pitchers release point and timing. Few guys have the ability to do what Ricky Henderson did. Ells is not RH.

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from joel49. Show joel49's posts

    Re: Swing, for crying out loud!

    Well, I respectfully disagree, Jim.  IMO you do change your approach every once in a while to keep a pitcher off balance.  I think I'm stating the obvious when I say that when you are behind in the count 0-2 or 1-2, you are forced to swing defensively, and the result is often a K or a weak ground out.  WMB's HR last inning was on a first pitch swing.

    And the fact that Henderson was a RH batter would seem to have worked against him in that he faced a lot more RH pitchers, unlike Ells who should have an advantage in facing a majority of right handers.

     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from joel49. Show joel49's posts

    Re: Swing, for crying out loud!

    FWIW, last night's tying run in the seventh inning was the result of Salty's swinging at the first pitch he saw from Duensing for a single, moving Gomes to third, followed by Jacoby's first pitch swinging for a single to score Gomes.  Both hits were mashed.

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: Swing, for crying out loud!

    In response to JimfromFlorida's comment:

     

    In response to southpaw777's comment:

     

    I think if you know a certain pitcher is known for getting that 1st pitch strike you can do it to throw him off. But overall they have a good approach. I just want Ells to bunt for once and use his speed.

     



    You do know that in the MLB especially in the AL that the numbers say a bunt attempt is a wasted AB. Yep it works sometimes but far more often it doesn't.

     

     




    tell that to victorino because apparently he didnt get the memo

    A well placed and timed bunt will work everytime

    cant just look and numbers and say if its a good idea or not Jim. numbers never tell the whole story. 3bman is back a bit, catcher with just an ok arm. batter with good speed. All these things come into play. Not just some stat sheet. If your a good bunter, It'll work more times than not if done in the right situation.

    Like I said, Vic has done it more than once already early on this season.

     

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from Joebreidey. Show Joebreidey's posts

    Re: Swing, for crying out loud!

    So far in the AL, there are 2,080 0-1 counts, an average of ~ 139 per team.  We have 130.  So we have less than average.

    So tommorow morning, I would like to see a thread complaining that we are swinging at too many first pitches that always outside the strike zone.

    Next!

     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: Swing, for crying out loud!

    In response to Joebreidey's comment:

     

    So far in the AL, there are 2,080 0-1 counts, an average of ~ 139 per team.  We have 130.  So we have less than average.

    So tommorow morning, I would like to see a thread complaining that we are swinging at too many first pitches that always outside the strike zone.

    Next!

     



    no, not next just yet Joe.
    what are the individual team numbers, not the average.

    Im willing to bet that aggressive teams like Houston, etc., have a lot more than the "average" of 139. If there are a few teams with a decent amount more than the "average", that skews it some, no?  Maybe not, but thats my guess. Besides its more about not becoming predictable than anything. Goitta keep players on their toes never knowing exactly what your going to do all the time.

     

     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from joel49. Show joel49's posts

    Re: Swing, for crying out loud!

    In response to Joebreidey's comment:

    So far in the AL, there are 2,080 0-1 counts, an average of ~ 139 per team.  We have 130.  So we have less than average.

    So tommorow morning, I would like to see a thread complaining that we are swinging at too many first pitches that always outside the strike zone.

    Next!




    The point, Joe, is to occasionally swing at first pitch strikes or the first good pitch one sees.  I'm certainly not saying to do it as a rule, but rather to add the element of surprise so as not to let a pitcher get comfortable throwing meatballs.

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from Joebreidey. Show Joebreidey's posts

    Re: Swing, for crying out loud!

    In response to southpaw777's comment:

    In response to Joebreidey's comment:

     

    So far in the AL, there are 2,080 0-1 counts, an average of ~ 139 per team.  We have 130.  So we have less than average.

    So tommorow morning, I would like to see a thread complaining that we are swinging at too many first pitches that always outside the strike zone.

    Next!

     



    no, not next just yet Joe.
    what are the individual team numbers, not the average.

    Im willing to bet that aggressive teams like Houston, etc., have a lot more than the "average" of 139. If there are a few teams with a decent amount more than the "average", that skews it some, no?  Maybe not, but thats my guess.

     



    • RS 130
    • DET 163
    • NYY 127
    • Tex 168
    • TBR 136
    • BAL 143
    • TOR 135

    I'm not seeing a pattern here.  Certainly there would be a point to not automatically taking the first pitch.  That's just giving away too much of an advantage.

     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from Joebreidey. Show Joebreidey's posts

    Re: Swing, for crying out loud!

    In response to joel49's comment:

    In response to Joebreidey's comment:

     

    So far in the AL, there are 2,080 0-1 counts, an average of ~ 139 per team.  We have 130.  So we have less than average.

    So tommorow morning, I would like to see a thread complaining that we are swinging at too many first pitches that always outside the strike zone.

    Next!

     




    The point, Joe, is to occasionally swing at first pitch strikesor the first good pitch one sees.  I'm certainly not saying to do it as a rule, but rather to add the element of surprise so as not to let a pitcher get comfortable throwing meatballs.

     



     LOL!  For all my hard work, I completely mis-interpreted my own results.  Back to sleep for Joey.

     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: Swing, for crying out loud!

    In response to Joebreidey's comment:

     

    In response to joel49's comment:

     

    In response to Joebreidey's comment:

     

    So far in the AL, there are 2,080 0-1 counts, an average of ~ 139 per team.  We have 130.  So we have less than average.

    So tommorow morning, I would like to see a thread complaining that we are swinging at too many first pitches that always outside the strike zone.

    Next!

     




    The point, Joe, is to occasionally swing at first pitch strikesor the first good pitch one sees.  I'm certainly not saying to do it as a rule, but rather to add the element of surprise so as not to let a pitcher get comfortable throwing meatballs.

     

     



     LOL!  For all my hard work, I completely mis-interpreted my own results.  Back to sleep for Joey.

     

     




    I also have learned to wake up a bit before posting. I look back at some things and say, "Did I write that?" A lot worse things than that, thats for sure...

     

     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from hill55. Show hill55's posts

    Re: Swing, for crying out loud!

    The Red Sox rank last in the majors in the percentage of swings on the first pitch:

    http://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/MLB/2013-pitches-batting.shtml

    The Sox rank eighth in the percentage of strikes looking (in relation to all strikes):

    http://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/MLB/2013-pitches-batting.shtml

     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from devildavid. Show devildavid's posts

    Re: Swing, for crying out loud!

    Joel, I like your thinking. My wife always says the same thing and is frustrated by it. Often times that first pitch is the best one they see in the at bat, but they seem to have a philosophy of not swinging simply because it is the first pitch.

     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: Swing, for crying out loud!

    In response to hill55's comment:

    The Red Sox rank last in the majors in the percentage of swings on the first pitch:

    http://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/MLB/2013-pitches-batting.shtml

    The Sox rank eighth in the percentage of strikes looking (in relation to all strikes):

    http://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/MLB/2013-pitches-batting.shtml




     Id like them to come down from 23% of K's looking. That drives me crazy. Although not the worst, theres 11 teams that are 23% or less, so at least theyre in the top 3rd of the league in the least abount of K's looking.

     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from hill55. Show hill55's posts

    Re: Swing, for crying out loud!

    In response to devildavid's comment:

    Joel, I like your thinking. My wife always says the same thing and is frustrated by it. Often times that first pitch is the best one they see in the at bat, but they seem to have a philosophy of not swinging simply because it is the first pitch.

    The Red Sox have posted a .363/.371/.558/.928 line on the first pitch this season and a .263/.340/.435/.775 line overall:

    http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/split.cgi?t=b&team=BOS&year=2013

    The league average on the first pitch is .331/.332/.549/.881:

    http://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/split.cgi?t=b&lg=AL&year=2013

     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from joel49. Show joel49's posts

    Re: Swing, for crying out loud!

    In response to hill55's comment:

     

    In response to devildavid's comment:

    Joel, I like your thinking. My wife always says the same thing and is frustrated by it. Often times that first pitch is the best one they see in the at bat, but they seem to have a philosophy of not swinging simply because it is the first pitch.


    The Red Sox have posted a .363/.371/.558/.928 line on the first pitch this season and a .263/.340/.435/.775 line overall:

     

     

    http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/split.cgi?t=b&team=BOS&year=2013

    The league average on the first pitch is .331/.332/.549/.881:

    http://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/split.cgi?t=b&lg=AL&year=2013

     

    Thanks for the stats, Hill.  I'm feeling validated.

     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from joel49. Show joel49's posts

    Re: Swing, for crying out loud!

    More first pitch swinging last night than I've seen from this club in a long time, and with very positive results. 

     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from Sheriff-Rojas. Show Sheriff-Rojas's posts

    Re: Swing, for crying out loud!

    batting-averages-hitting-counts

    These stats suggest that first pitch hitting may not be the best choice as even an 0-1 count is better than an 0-0.  As you can see, 1-0 is the best.

     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: Swing, for crying out loud!

    Like I was saying, If the situation calls for it you swing at pitch one.

    Last night when the Sox were up in the ninth against Kirkland, who has an ERA north of 6, the decided to take this approach with great results. Only 2 pitches were really thrown. the other 4 were an IBB. 1st to Gomes, who laced a double then papi with a WO HR, both on the 1st pitch.

    Theres a time to be aggressive, and a time to lay back and let the guy throw.

     
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