Taking a close look at the payroll

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from JB-3. Show JB-3's posts

    Re: Taking a close look at the payroll

    In Response to Re: Taking a close look at the payroll:
    Yes, but if we really want to make a strong push this year AND stay under or close to the threshhold, then we could spread it to next year. We lose a lot of salary next winter, so the effect won't be as great as this year, since the players we lose do not have crucial roles now (except for Papi): Dice-K  $8.7M Jenks   $6M Ross     $3M Shopp  $1.35M (Possibly losing Youk at a $1M buyout or paying him at $13M.) The following winter we lose: Youk $13M Ells    $?arb deal from 2013? Salty, Sweeney, Punto Lester's option
    Posted by moonslav59


    Let's not forget the raises that we're responsible for as well though: Bard, Aceves, Ells, Salty (if tendered), Miller (if tendered), Aviles, Albers, and Bailey.  I think that's all of them, and Miller isn't likely to be tendered unless he finally figures things out.
     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from JB-3. Show JB-3's posts

    Re: Taking a close look at the payroll

    In Response to Re: Taking a close look at the payroll:
    In Response to Re: Taking a close look at the payroll : That would help for 2012's luxury tax issues and maybe reduce the rate for 2013.  But it also creates a serious problem for 2013 because we'd have $8 million on the books for a player who's gone. 
    Posted by Hfxsoxnut


    It wouldn't be $8M when he's gone though.  Once Papi declines the player option, the total contract value decreases, thus impacting his 2013 tax hit.  It would only be a $6.5M hit in 2013.  Certainly still significant, but it could cover one of our arb raises.
     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from Hfxsoxnut. Show Hfxsoxnut's posts

    Re: Taking a close look at the payroll

    In Response to Re: Taking a close look at the payroll:
    In Response to Re: Taking a close look at the payroll : It wouldn't be $8M when he's gone though.  Once Papi declines the player option, the total contract value decreases, thus impacting his 2013 tax hit.  It would only be a $6.5M hit in 2013.  Certainly still significant, but it could cover one of our arb raises.
    Posted by JB-3


    OK, well done. 
     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Taking a close look at the payroll

    Thanks for the clarification JB.

    Yeah, the arb raises (or pre-arb deals) will eat into the salary space provided by the departure of Dice-K, Jenks, Ross, and Shopp.

    Since it appears that we are going to go over the tax limit this year, I say we just pay Papi for 1 year and take the big savings next year when he walks.
     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Taking a close look at the payroll

    A look at winter 2012-13 shows we may be able to get a big name or two FA and stay under the limit. (Salary listed is AAV)
    $22M AGon
    $21.1 CC
    $17.0 Beck
    $16.5 Lack
    $10.3 Youk (or pay $1M option and let him walk) 
    $  6.8  Pedey
    $  6.0  Lester
    $  7.5  Buch
    $  2.1  Iggy
    $  1.5  Punto
     ~$91M Total

    Arbs:
    Ellsbury (3 of 3) $8.05M to ?$10-18M?
    Bailey    (2 of 3) $3.9M to ?$4-7M?
    Salty      (3 of 3) $2.5M to ?$3-7M?
    Sweeney(3 of 3) $1.75M to ?$2-3M?
    Aviles     (2 of 3) $1.2M to ?$1.5-3M?
    Tazawa  (1 of 4) $pre-arb? to $.8-1.5M?
    Albers    (4 of 4) $1.075M to ?$1-2M?
    Miller      (2 of 3) $1.04M to ?$1-2M?
    Morales  (2 of 3) $850K to ?$1-2M?
    Aceves   (2 of 3) $arb? to ?$2-4M?
    Bard       (2 of 4) $1.6M to ?$2.5-4M?
    DMac      (1 of 3) $pre-arb? ro ?$.7-1M?
    Melancon (1 of 3/4) $pre-arb? to ?$1-2.5M?
    ~$24M to $45M

    TOTAL: $115M to $135M

    Players that walk:
    Ortiz  ($12.65M to $16M)
    Dice-K ($8.7M)
    Jenks  ($6M)
    C Ross ($3M)
    Shopp  ($1.35M)
    Total: $31-35M

    Before any signings and assuming all arbs stay:

    SP: Beck, Lest, Buch, Lack, Mortensen, Doubront,Miller, AWilson, Ranaudo
    RP: Bailey, Bard, Melancon, Aceves, Morales, Albers, Bowden, Tazawa
    C: Salty, Lava, Exposito, Swihart, Vazquez
    DH: Lava (Youk)
    1B: AGon, Anderson, R Rodriguez
    2B: Pedey, Tejada, Coyle
    3B: Youk (DH), Middlebrooks, Cecchini, Bogaerts
    SS: Iggy, Aviles, Punto, (Bogaerts), Vinicio
    LF: Crawford, DMac, Nava, Bradley, Hassan
    CF: Ellsbury, Jacobs, Ramos, Lin
    RF: Sweeney, Kalish, Brentz, Linares, Hazelbaker



     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from JB-3. Show JB-3's posts

    Re: Taking a close look at the payroll

    Good list Moon, but Youk would be a $13M tax hit in 2013.  The club option being exercised is treated as 1 year $13M for tax purposes.  Also, I think the absolute cap for Ells is around $16.1M (double his 2012 salary), but he should come in around $12M-$14M (50% - 75% raise) if I had to guess right now without looking at comps.  Finally, Bard could see a larger raise if he makes a successful transition to the rotation.

    So let's call it $137M for the 25 man roster including pre arb players for now. Add in $10M for benefits and rounding out the 40 man roster, puts us at $147M assuming that Papi isn't given a player option to spread his tax hit into 2013.  That leaves us with about $20M in AAV to go get someone, or multiple players.  I don't see anyone being brought in for DH, RF, CF, LF, 1B, 2B, or C (Lava).  There could be some small arms added to the pen potentially, but we're all set at the back of the pen (read as expensive pen arms). Depending on how they do this season, Iggy and Middlebrooks could earn the opening day nods at SS and 3B for 2013, which would allow us to focus our resources on starting pitching.  I'm not going to speculate about who could be available, since we're likely to see more extensions before the end of the season, but we certainly should have the money to make a big deal if that's how Ben wants to address it.  There's also the chance that Dice is resigned on the cheap or that Tazawa/Wilson/Doubront emerge this season and help plug the rotation for 2013.

    Basically, it's tough to say exactly where the holes will be in 2013, but we should have the money to address them and exercise Youk's option as a DH and 3B/1B insurance.
     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Taking a close look at the payroll

    Good list Moon, but Youk would be a $13M tax hit in 2013.  The club option being exercised is treated as 1 year $13M for tax purposes.  Also, I think the absolute cap for Ells is around $16.1M (double his 2012 salary), but he should come in around $12M-$14M (50% - 75% raise) if I had to guess right now without looking at comps.  Finally, Bard could see a larger raise if he makes a successful transition to the rotation.

    So let's call it $137M for the 25 man roster including pre arb players for now. Add in $10M for benefits and rounding out the 40 man roster, puts us at $147M assuming that Papi isn't given a player option to spread his tax hit into 2013.  

    You mean $137M + $10M benefits + $8M for 15 non-25man roster players (most pre-arb)= ~$155M? 

    That leaves us with about $20M in AAV to go get someone, or multiple players.  

    Wouldn't that leave us with about $23M to spend? (155+23= $178M)?

    I don't see anyone being brought in for DH, RF, CF, LF, 1B, 2B, or C (Lava).  There could be some small arms added to the pen potentially, but we're all set at the back of the pen (read as expensive pen arms). Depending on how they do this season, Iggy and Middlebrooks could earn the opening day nods at SS and 3B for 2013, which would allow us to focus our resources on starting pitching.  I'm not going to speculate about who could be available, since we're likely to see more extensions before the end of the season, but we certainly should have the money to make a big deal if that's how Ben wants to address it.  There's also the chance that Dice is resigned on the cheap or that Tazawa/Wilson/Doubront emerge this season and help plug the rotation for 2013.

    I think out team will be very competitive in 2013 even with no signings. I'm pretty certain a couple prospects will earn starting roles saving us much, so I think we make the big upgrade at pitching, but I suppose it could be RF, 3B or SS, if it appears the players on my list aren't good enough or aren't ready. There'a slo a chance we trade some salary again next winter as we did with Scoot this winter.

    Basically, it's tough to say exactly where the holes will be in 2013, but we should have the money to address them and exercise Youk's option as a DH and 3B/1B insurance.

    If Youk has another injury or declines further, his option will be a tough call.

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from JB-3. Show JB-3's posts

    Re: Taking a close look at the payroll

    You mean $137M + $10M benefits + $8M for 15 non-25man roster players (most pre-arb)= ~$155M? 

    I was under the assumption that the non 25 man roster players would be on split contracts.  Upon further review, you're correct.  That being said, $137M is still a very high figure, I wouldn't be surprised if it was able to incorporate the 15 non 25 man roster players as well.  For our purposes though, we'll call it $155M.

    Wouldn't that leave us with about $23M to spend? (155+23= $178M)?

    I don't even know where to begin with this.  Maybe I just need more coffee, but for some reason I was thinking $167M.  Probably because I think of it as player salaries and then benefits.  Anyway with benefits included in the $155M figure, we could go up to $178M.  That's my bad.  So yes, $23M in AAV to spend.

    I think out team will be very competitive in 2013 even with no signings. I'm pretty certain a couple prospects will earn starting roles saving us much, so I think we make the big upgrade at pitching, but I suppose it could be RF, 3B or SS, if it appears the players on my list aren't good enough or aren't ready. There'a slo a chance we trade some salary again next winter as we did with Scoot this winter.

    We're on the same page here, although I'm not sure who we cold move to free up salary other than Youk (if they pick up his option) or Salty.  Moving Crawford could be an option down the line, but not until we have an in house replacement, since we'd have to eat significant money to make him movable.  Wee're also going to need someone ready to replace Ells for 2014, further limiting our in house options for LF.

    I'm sold on Brentz geting a shot at the RF job at some point in 2013, as a solid RH power bat with a rocket arm in RF.  For LF I'm thinking potentially Bogaerts if Middlebrooks is at 3B, But he's still 3+ years away.

    If Youk has another injury or declines further, his option will be a tough call.

    For sure, I have trouble seeing him stick as a full time 3B beyond this season.  I think he could be very valuable as a DH/ back up 1B/3B though.  The question becomes, do we want to pay him $12M net to DH?
     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Taking a close look at the payroll

    Great answers JB.

    You are right, other than Youk, there is not much else we can do to trade Salary after 2012. I guess we could save some by trading Salty, assuming Lava is ready. We could move Sweeney, Aviles or Punto, but none will be big savings. Then there are the big salaries of CC, Lackey and others, but moving them could be difficult and just create a bigger hole to fill.
     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from myaim45. Show myaim45's posts

    Re: Taking a close look at the payroll

    I think in the end, were all hoping CC will have a much better season.
     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from JB-3. Show JB-3's posts

    Re: Taking a close look at the payroll

    In Response to Re: Taking a close look at the payroll:
    I think in the end, were all hoping CC will have a much better season.
    Posted by myaim45


    Absolutely.  He'll likely be overpaid either way, but it'd be nice to at least get some sort of production for the huge cost.  Hopefully he'll do better with his wrist cleaned up and a year in Boston under his belt.
     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from Alibiike. Show Alibiike's posts

    Re: Taking a close look at the payroll

    This thread brought to you by H & R Block!
     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from soxforlife22. Show soxforlife22's posts

    Re: Taking a close look at the payroll

    In Response to Re: Taking a close look at the payroll:
    Great answers JB. You are right, other than Youk, there is not much else we can do to trade Salary after 2012. I guess we could save some by trading Salty, assuming Lava is ready. We could move Sweeney, Aviles or Punto, but none will be big savings. Then there are the big salaries of CC, Lackey and others, but moving them could be difficult and just create a bigger hole to fill.
    Posted by moonslav59

    I have an idea about Lackey that is most likely not going to happen but it gives him a little more money and it helps the Red Sox on the threshhold. As his deal currently stands, he has a 3.5 signing bonus, 18 mil his first year and 15.25 mil for each of the 4 consequent years for a grand total of 5/82.5 or 16.5 mil per year as it affects the threshold. Ofcourse with his injury, unless i'm misinformed, his option for the 2015 season goes into affect for the league minimum. Now i'm not sure if anyone will agree, but i think the Red Sox would have to be brainless not to pick up that option when it comes around. So my proposal would be to sign him to an extension of sorts. Make sure he knows that we will be picking up his option and negotiate a deal. If we add a $1.5 million salary to the 2015 year, that essentially adds $1 to that option giving Lackey more money (i know he doesn't deserve it, but...) and it would make the deal a 6/84 or 14 mil per year. Although this might hurt the salary as it affects the threshold in the 2015 season, we could deal him to a small market team because the $14 mil added to the threshold would not matter to them
     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from georom4. Show georom4's posts

    Re: Taking a close look at the payroll

    one thing I dont get is if the sox managment was going to be all up in arms about the luxury tax, why didnt they let papi waLK? we have youk, Agon, Salty, Lavarnway and even a few other that could rotate the DH position and get us GOOD production and save us 12 million....

    instead we get rid of a guy in his last yr of a contract and earning just 6 million...Papi is going to cost us 3-4x that for two years....am i missing something here????
     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Taking a close look at the payroll

    one thing I dont get is if the sox managment was going to be all up in arms about the luxury tax, why didnt they let papi waLK? 

    1) They probably thought he'd sign a multiyear deal elsewhere and we'd get the picks.
    2) They didn't want to appear to be "throwing him to the curb".

    Also, They could have signed Beltre last year and let Papi walk then. Youk could have DH'd and spelled AGon and Beltre here and there.


    we have youk, Agon, Salty, Lavarnway and even a few other that could rotate the DH position and get us GOOD production and save us 12 million....

    ...or $16M!

    instead we get rid of a guy in his last yr of a contract and earning just 6 million...Papi is going to cost us 3-4x that for two years....am i missing something here????

    A long while ago, I started a thread entitled somethging like, 
    "Where Should We Go Light?" 

    Lots of people called me crazy for saying that we would probably have to let Paps or Papi go, and maybe others. My reasoning was based on my opinion that the CC signing "would cripple us for years to come", and the fact that we spent this winter's money in April when we extended AGon and Buch. It's not like we all of a sudden decided to "go cheap". In a sense, we signed AGon this winter.

    In that thread, I looked at various players who make a significant amount of money and who we had to replace them at a much lower cost. I came up with a few ideas:

    1) Let Papi walk and use Youk & Lava at DH (Prolong Youk's career and increase his chances of being rested and producing more).

    2) Let Paps walk and use Bard as a closer or find another cheaper closer.

    3) Let Scutty walk and pay $1.5M or take his option ($6M) and trade him (saving $1.5M) over just letting him go. Use Iggy/Aviles/Lowrie at SS (Jed is now gone).

    4) Trade Youk and save $10.1M (AAV), but what would we get for an oft-injured poor fielding 3Bman. Not many teams need a 1Bman who might miss 30-60 games. Use Aviles/Lowrie/Scutty at 3B and start Iggy at SS. (Jed is now gone)

    5) Trade Salty and use Lava FT, and save just a couple million.

    Papi may end up costing more than Paps for 2012 anyways. It may be Ben's biggest mistake thus far, but I certainly understand the reasoning for keeping perhaps the Sox biggest recent hero...Papi. I can imagine all the vitriol from Sox fans had they not offered him arb or a decent contract. I know we'd be hearing the race card being played (by softy and others).

    Things will look a little brighter next year, but we will be trying to recover from the CC & Lackey signings for many years to come. 
     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from georom4. Show georom4's posts

    Re: Taking a close look at the payroll

    In Response to Re: Taking a close look at the payroll:
    one thing I dont get is if the sox managment was going to be all up in arms about the luxury tax, why didnt they let papi waLK?  1) They probably thought he'd sign a multiyear deal elsewhere and we'd get the picks. 2) They didn't want to appear to be "throwing him to the curb". Also, They could have signed Beltre last year and let Papi walk then. Youk could have DH'd and spelled AGon and Beltre here and there. we have youk, Agon, Salty, Lavarnway and even a few other that could rotate the DH position and get us GOOD production and save us 12 million.... ...or $16M! instead we get rid of a guy in his last yr of a contract and earning just 6 million...Papi is going to cost us 3-4x that for two years....am i missing something here???? A long while ago, I started a thread entitled somethging like,  "Where Should We Go Light?"  Lots of people called me crazy for saying that we would probably have to let Paps or Papi go, and maybe others. My reasoning was based on my opinion that the CC signing "would cripple us for years to come", and the fact that we spent this winter's money in April when we extended AGon and Buch. It's not like we all of a sudden decided to "go cheap". In a sense, we signed AGon this winter. In that thread, I looked at various players who make a significant amount of money and who we had to replace them at a much lower cost. I came up with a few ideas: 1) Let Papi walk and use Youk & Lava at DH (Prolong Youk's career and increase his chances of being rested and producing more). 2) Let Paps walk and use Bard as a closer or find another cheaper closer. 3) Let Scutty walk and pay $1.5M or take his option ($6M) and trade him (saving $1.5M) over just letting him go. Use Iggy/Aviles/Lowrie at SS (Jed is now gone). 4) Trade Youk and save $10.1M (AAV), but what would we get for an oft-injured poor fielding 3Bman. Not many teams need a 1Bman who might miss 30-60 games. Use Aviles/Lowrie/Scutty at 3B and start Iggy at SS. (Jed is now gone) 5) Trade Salty and use Lava FT, and save just a couple million. Papi may end up costing more than Paps for 2012 anyways. It may be Ben's biggest mistake thus far, but I certainly understand the reasoning for keeping perhaps the Sox biggest recent hero...Papi. I can imagine all the vitriol from Sox fans had they not offered him arb or a decent contract. I know we'd be hearing the race card being played (by softy and others). Things will look a little brighter next year, but we will be trying to recover from the CC & Lackey signings for many years to come. 
    Posted by moonslav59


    i wanted to kick papi to the curb after 2010 and keep Vmart instead....a lot of us did - but he played well last year and was not against signing him for 20 mil for two years - but i honestly had no clue we were going to be so Puritan about the luxury tax....they shoudlve just let him walk if they are that concerned about it -  after all papi is 35-37???? and going to cost us huge bucks...what are they thinking????
     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Taking a close look at the payroll

    They were thinking 2 draft picks or $12.65M/1...not $16M!
     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from LadyLake. Show LadyLake's posts

    payroll

    In Response to Re: Taking a close look at the payroll:
    In Response to Re: Taking a close look at the payroll : i wanted to kick papi to the curb after 2010 and keep Vmart instead....a lot of us did - but he played well last year and was not against signing him for 20 mil for two years - but i honestly had no clue we were going to be so Puritan about the luxury tax....they shoudlve just let him walk if they are that concerned about it -  after all papi is 35-37???? and going to cost us huge bucks...what are they thinking????
    Posted by georom4
     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from MadMc44. Show MadMc44's posts

    Re: Taking a close look at the payroll

    Why take Aceves to Arb.????unless you want him to win and feel like at least someone believes I'm worth what I'm asking for.

    Aceves has pitched in 114 games with a combined ERA of 2.93 in 240 Inn's
    a WHIP of 1.083 and a WAR of 5.0.

    Bard  has pitched in 192 games with a combined ERA of 2.88 in 197 Inn's
    a WHIP of 1.056 and a WAR of 5.3.

    BenC--why arb on Ace--you've got more important things to worry about; this is a guy who has proven his worth---he could run circles around Buch and Beck and is a fierce competitor and does nothing but succeed.


     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Taking a close look at the payroll

    My guess is they settle with Aceves before arb. Ben's not worried about Aceves. He will be bcak no matter what he makes, and the differential between offers is minimal. 

    The real worry is Papi winning his arb.
     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from law2009a. Show law2009a's posts

    Re: Taking a close look at the payroll

    m
     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from hankwilliamsjr. Show hankwilliamsjr's posts

    Re: Taking a close look at the payroll

    That may not be that bad, although if they're already under contract

    Nearly 30 million for Crawford and Ellsbury is "that bad", and they are already under contract. The current outfield is going to deliver what it delivered since 2008.
     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from law2009a. Show law2009a's posts

    Re: Taking a close look at the payroll

    m
     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from law2009a. Show law2009a's posts

    Re: Taking a close look at the payroll

    m
     
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